I will be adding the WTA Finals Picks here as well as the updated totals from the week from both Finals being played in Guadalajara and Turin.
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: There is some uncertainty about the make up of this Group at the ATP World Tour Finals with the injury that Matteo Berrettini is dealing with, but for the two players competing in the early match things seem pretty clear.
Both Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev have picked up a win already in Turin and another on Tuesday may be good enough to take them through to the Semi Final. That has to be the focus for the two players, although the new conditions in Turin compared to what they have been used to in London over the years may take some getting used to.
Daniil Medvedev is the defending Champion of this tournament and Alexander Zverev is a previous Champion too and I do think both will have entered the event with serious belief they can go on and win it. That should make for a really good match and it may come down to which of the players is happier dealing with the uncertainty of the new court.
It may be a little more difficult for Alexander Zverev who only played a single set in his first match before Matteo Berrettini had to retire with an injury. He wasn't playing badly, but you do have to wonder how much the Italian was affected during the course of the contest and Alexander Zverev will know all too well how dangerous and effective Daniil Medvedev is as a player on an indoor hard court.
He has lost four in a row to the current US Open Champion and that includes a crushing defeat at the Paris Masters in the final tournament before the World Tour Finals began. Daniil Medvedev was a little unsure of the conditions at the end of his first win and felt it is the fastest court he has played on this season, but the way he rallied to beat Hubert Hurkacz should stand him in good stead.
The Russian had a huge serving day and you have to feel his return will improve having had that match under his belt. Daniil Medvedev has proven to be a more effective return player than Alexander Zverev on the hard courts over the last twelve months and there has been a significant edge in favour of the higher Ranked player in their head to head matches since 2020.
Where Daniil Medvedev has held 91% of the service games played in their last four meetings, Alexander Zverev has only managed to hold around 70% and that is a marked edge. The feeling is that the steadiness of the Medvedev game has proven to be far too good for Alexander Zverev to handle and that may be the case in this middle match of the Group Stage.
Tie-breakers have been a huge feature of the opening set of the opening Group matches and I think we could see another one here. However, I think Daniil Medvedev is going to show an improved performance on the return part of his tennis and I think he will be able to beat his opponent and cover the handicap mark too.
Paula Badosa - 1.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: None of the players that have reached the WTA Finals Semi Final Round have managed to do so with an unbeaten record and I think the tournament has underlined how little separates the top players on this Tour. We have yet to see someone come through and dominate the void that has been left behind by Serena Williams and 2022 is likely to be another year in which surprising Grand Slam Champions can emerge.
Only Garbine Muguruza has won a Grand Slam out of the four remaining players in the draw and I think it said plenty that there were only three players out of the 'elite' eight that have previously won a Major. It has opened the door for someone to take over at the top of the WTA Tour and I do think there is going to be more twists and turns in the Semi Final.
Paula Badosa won the second Group, but that means she was in action on Monday and will have had less than twenty-four hours recovery time before taking the court for this Semi Final. The defeat to Iga Swiatek is a little worrying with the momentum broken, but Paula Badosa was on the court for less than two hours and she is much more accustomed to the conditions playing in the day compared with Garbine Muguruza.
There is still a mental barrier for Paula Badosa to overcome as she takes on the face of Spanish Women's tennis of recent years, but the Indian Wells Champion should feel she has the form to win a match like this one. Early in the tournament, Paula Badosa looked to be really enjoying the conditions in Guadalajara and she should receive plenty of support in this one from the stands.
The same can be said for Garbine Muguruza who beat Anett Kontaveit to earn the Semi Final spot despite losing her first match at the WTA Finals. It was a comfortable enough win for Muguruza, but she has not really hit the heights that Paula Badosa has and has spent considerably more time on the court to battle through the Group.
Having a day of rest is a benefit, but Garbine Muguruza has yet to play in the day session and that could be something that takes a bit of time to get used to. Her serve was in good form against Anett Kontaveit, but it has not been as effective as the one that Paula Badosa has been producing and I think the slight favourite has also been much more efficient on the return of serve.
Garbine Muguruza can also be very difficult to stop when she builds momentum through a tournament like she has here, but Paula Badosa is playing well enough to beat her. I do hate the loss Paula Badosa suffered on Monday as it would have taken away some of the momentum she had after winning Indian Wells, but her numbers have been a touch stronger than her compatriot's in the tournament and I will look for her to edge past Garbine Muguruza for a place in the Final.
Anett Kontaveit - 2.5 games v Maria Sakkari: Wins from the opening two matches were effectively enough for Anett Kontaveit as she moved through her Group at the WTA Finals and her place in the next Round was confirmed before she took to the court in her last match. That may have played a part in the performance level in her defeat to Garbine Muguruza, but it can be tough to switch it on and off and the Estonian will need to be ready to be much more competitive in this one.
She has had a day of rest between matches and she will be back under the lights for this Semi Final and I have to imagine that Anett Kontaveit was pretty pleased to see the Aryna Sabalenka-Maria Sakkari match go close to three hours on Monday evening. It was the Greek player who eventually prevailed, but that effort was monumental and you have to wonder how good Maria Sakkari is going to be feeling emotionally and physically.
I have no doubt about the fitness levels of Maria Sakkari, but the conditions in Guadalajara are tough enough as it is and she has spent nearly five hours on the court over her last two matches. The fans will give her a lift, as Maria Sakkari alluded to in her post match interview after beating Aryna Sabalenka, but this looks to be a really tough Semi Final for her.
Maria Sakkari has been having a tough time in her last couple of matches after beating Iga Swiatek and she was brushed aside by Anett Kontaveit when these players met last month in Ostrave. That was part of the long winning run put together by Kontaveit and should have her feeling more positive about a match up against a player who has a winning record against her.
However, they have split the eight matches played against each other on the hard courts and it is Anett Kontaveit who has won three of the last four. Anett Kontaveit deservingly beat Maria Sakkari in the Final in Ostrava thanks to a strong serving display and any fatigue felt by the latter should be capitalised on by Kontaveit in this Semi Final.
The serve has been a big weapon for Anett Kontaveit at the WTA Finals and she has been considerably better than Maria Sakkari in that aspect of her tennis. It is going to be a key shot again and I do think Kontaveit is unlikely to offer up the kind of free points that Aryna Sabalenka did in the match with Maria Sakkari on Monday.
I think the additional rest is also a key factor in favour of Anett Kontaveit here and I think she can beat Maria Sakkari after the huge effort the Greek player needed to produce to merely earn her spot in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 5-7, - 5.10 Units (24 Units Staked, - 21.25% Yield)
ATP Finals Update: 1-0, + 1.44 Units (2 Units Staked, + 72% Yield)
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