The WTA Finals is due to be completed on Wednesday and that will put down a period on the 2021 WTA Tour, while the ATP World Tour Finals will be two thirds of the way through the Group Stage.
There is still some Davis Cup tennis to be played, but most players will just be glad to have an opportunity to rest up and get ready for another long season on the Tour. Hopefully 2022 will prove to be a much more familiar looking calendar for the players and that should mean a more consistent year for the Tennis Picks which will likely resume at the Australian Open in January.
I am still focusing on trying to have a strong week and make sure this month ends with some good returns, but there is work to do towards that goal.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Both of these players have gotten off to winning starts at the ATP World Tour Finals in Turin and the winner of this one will virtually assure themselves of a place in the Semi Final. That is the minimum that Novak Djokovic will have expected of himself going into the tournament having won the Paris Masters, while Andrey Rublev has a big opportunity after upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas in the opening match.
The expectation is that both of these players will work their way through and Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev produced some top tennis in their opening Group matches. That will be encouraging for their chances the deeper they go in the tournament, but it would be a mistake to look too far ahead.
Novak Djokovic made a slow start in his win over Casper Ruud, but he dominated after dropping serve early and it could have been a more comfortable day in the office if he had taken his chances in the first set. He did exert his quality on the return of serve in the second set though and the conditions didn't really bother the World Number 1 as much as it has seemingly had an effect on others at the World Tour Finals.
He should be challenged much more in this match by Andrey Rublev who has a very good serve and who will be plenty confident after beating Stefanos Tsitsipas. The poor end to the regular season may have contributed to the underdog status that Andrey Rublev had going into the match, but he has been a really strong hard court player and the serve can be followed by big groundstrokes that could see him put Novak Djokovic under pressure.
The difference between the players is likely going to be the significantly more confident return game that Novak Djokovic has compared with Andrey Rublev. As I have mentioned, the poor end to the regular season means Rublev may still be battling his own confidence even after the win over Stefanos Tsitsipas and I think the World Number 1 can win this first meeting between these players.
Andrey Rublev does hold plenty of top ten wins on the hard courts in his career and I do think the Russian has the kind of game that can take the racquet out of the hand of his opponent. Doing that against Novak Djokovic is an altogether different kind of test and I do think the return game of the top Seed will put Andrey Rublev under pressure.
His serve was effective in the win over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev can be strong behind this shot as proven by his numbers over the last three seasons on this surface, but a first meeting with Novak Djokovic can be an eye-opening experience. The form has simply not been that good in the last few weeks and I think Novak Djokovic is playing with a real motivation which can help him win a second match at the Tour Finals and he can also cover this wide looking mark too.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Casper Ruud: An opening defeat at the Tour Finals is not fatal, but losing two matches in a row makes it very difficult to progress to the Semi Final. That means there will be some pressure on Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud when they take to the court on Wednesday evening, although both players have been bullish about their chances of having a real impact in the tournament.
It has not been the best end to the season for Stefanos Tsitsipas and that has to be a concern for his fans. Three losses in a row should not have dented the confidence too badly, but I do wonder if the long season has taken a toll on the Greek player who will have perhaps been expecting more from himself.
Winning Grand Slams is the kind of level that Stefanos Tsitsipas feels he should be operating at, but he came up a little short in that regard. He does look to be a much more competent hard court player these days though and it has been another season in which Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown an improvement on the returning side of his tennis on this surface.
We did not see anything like his best tennis in the opening match, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has to know that he is going up against Casper Ruud, a player that has struggled when he has played the top players of the Tour and especially on the hard courts. The youngster is improving and he showed some toughness to hang with Novak Djokovic through the first set in his opening Tour Finals match, but Casper Ruud couldn't maintain his level and was eventually seen off pretty comfortably.
Casper Ruud may be the fresher player, despite the really long season he has been involved in, and that may give him the chance of the upset, but he has to show he can compete with the top players. That is a mental hurdle for him to overcome on the hard courts and Casper Ruud's numbers in the opening match were not very encouraging even though he earned a tie-breaker in the opening set.
Stefanos Tsitsipas was largely outplayed by Andrey Rublev, but this feels like a match against an opponent who may be a level below the Russian.
In their sole previous hard court match, Stefanos Tsitsipas won pretty comfortably and it was a considerable edge behind the serve which proved to be the difference maker. I think that could be the case in this match too and I am looking for Stefanos Tsitsipas to bounce back and earn the win to give himself a chance of progressing to the Semi Final.
Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: In most weeks on the Tour you only play an opponent once in each tournament, but that is not the case at the Tour Finals to conclude the season.
This is the second time Garbine Muguruza and Anett Kontaveit are playing one another over the last four days, but this time the trophy is on the line. It was the Spaniard who won when they met in the Group and it was that win which has taken Garbine Muguruza through to the Knock Out Rounds of the WTA Finals and she has won three matches in a row.
In each of those wins, Garbine Muguruza has shown an improvement and she looks to be peaking at the right time to win the WTA Finals. One of those was earned against Anett Kontaveit and it was that victory that helped Muguruza out of the Group Stage, although by that point Kontaveit had won both matches and had guaranteed her passage through to the Semi Final.
Both players deservedly won their Semi Final matches, but Garbine Muguruza managed to do that in a much quicker time and without the drama that accompanied Anett Kontaveit's win over Maria Sakkari. Garbine Muguruza has had a few more hours to recover too and I do think she is one of the top momentum players on the WTA Tour and will be very difficult to stop now she has reached the Final with three straight wins behind her.
The win over Anett Kontaveit in the Group will have given Garbine Muguruza confidence and she has served really well in the last couple of matches. That is going to be very important for her again, but we did see Anett Kontaveit produce another strong performance out of her own serve in the win over Sakkari in the Semi Final.
Anett Kontaveit has been the more consistent player behind the serve in the tournament, but Garbine Muguruza has found a real rhythm on that shot. The key to the outcome of the Final will very much be which of the two players is able to keep themselves together mentally and be able to find the big serves when they matter the most.
I really don't think there is much between the players- Muguruza may hold a narrow mental edge, but Kontaveit is playing about as well as she has at any time in 2021. She did blow Garbine Muguruza away in Moscow, but the conditions here and the support of the crowd look to be favouring the Spaniard.
I will not be surprised if we need to see three sets to determine the winner and I do think the game being given to Garbine Muguruza may be a little more appealing than backing either to win outright. It could go very long in the form both are displaying, but I think Garbine Muguruza is in very strong form and continues to show positive improvement in each passing match here.
One more progressive step should be enough to secure the title and I will back Garbine Muguruza with a start on the Handicap.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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