The extra game on the schedule doesn't really change that outlook and there are plenty of teams who are going to be looking to push forward in the weeks ahead, while others may already believe it is a time for evaluation to prepare for the 2022 season. Things do change quickly in the NFL with injuries taking a toll and momentum critical to teams heading towards January, but it would be foolish for players to look too far ahead and assume they are on the right path to success.
The last two weeks have underlined that with teams suffering upsets and records suddenly looking not nearly as strong as they do right now. But things can change quickly as I have said and Week 11 is a good time to set yourself right.
It is the same for the NFL Picks which have now had three difficult weeks- I have to look at myself about a couple of those selections, but the bounce of the ball has not really been in my favour and I do hope that is something that will change.
For example, you couldn't really tell me that the Indianapolis Colts would struggle to move the ball after leading 17-0 in the First Quarter last week and expect me to believe that, but that was exactly what happened in their narrow win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I need to be better too and that will hopefully begin on Thursday Night Football.
New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Thursday Night Football produced an upset in Week 10 and I do think the public are backing the favourite to such an extent that they are perhaps underestimating another to occur in Week 11.
You can't blame people for wanting to back the New England Patriots (6-4) who have won four in a row to get themselves back in contention in both the AFC East Divisional race as well as the Wild Card positions in the AFC. Mac Jones is playing at a really high level and the Patriots have looked pretty secure on both sides of the ball, while they are coming in off a blow out of the Cleveland Browns.
And the last time anyone saw the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) play, they were being thumped by the Dallas Cowboys in a game that got out of hand before it really began. That will have influenced people, but despite all that, the sharps are behind the home underdog who are going to be very keen in proving themselves better than what they showed last time out.
Cordarrelle Patterson could be a big miss for the Atlanta Falcons, but they should be much stronger all around with the experience of Matt Ryan likely to be important for them. Without Patterson there are some holes in this Falcons Offensive unit that is also without Calvin Ridley, but Atlanta can find a way to establish the run and that should make things a little more comfortable for Matt Ryan despite his struggles last week.
You have to question the Falcons Offensive Line after recent performances, but this is an opportunity for them to show a little more than they have been. It won't be easy for Matt Ryan throwing against this New England Secondary, which has been playing well and is organised under Bill Belichick, but I think the Falcons will have more success than some may think.
On a short week it can be difficult for the Defenses to be prepared and that is where the Falcons can have some success, especially with some banged up players on the Offensives side of the ball. It is not ideal to be playing on Thursday for those players, but I think Mac Jones has played well enough to keep the chains moving and giving New England a chance to at least win the game even if they are not able to cover the handicap.
It could come down to Mac Jones and the passing game and that is largely down to the stronger Defensive Line performance from the Falcons. Damien Harris may still be absent and the Falcons may be able to at least force New England to take to the air to keep the team moving down the field.
Mac Jones has shown he has the capability to do that, but I do think the New England Patriots could still leave the backdoor open for a cover for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.
The spot is not an ideal one for the New England Patriots who are playing a non-Conference game and with the likes of Tennessee and Buffalo to come after the blowout defeat to the Cleveland Browns. Atlanta have also been pretty competitive this season and their two biggest losses have come on the road, but I would limit the stakes on this one only because of the inconsistencies of the home team.
One of the other reasons for the smaller stake for this game is that the New England Patriots have been well prepared for recent Thursday Night Football games and have gone 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in that spot. However, I do think the public deserve to be faded here and Atlanta can do enough to keep this close as the home underdog.
MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons + 7 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
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