The final match of the 2021 WTA season is in the books after Garbine Muguruza beat Anett Kontaveit in straight sets to take home the WTA Finals trophy. It is a big win for Muguruza, but the Women's Tour looks wide open and I think you could make a case for multiple players to win the Australian Open which is set to begin in just shy of two months from now.
Those players on the WTA Tour get to rest for a couple of weeks before rebuilding towards the 2022 season, while the majority of players on the ATP Tour are also heading for breaks at the end of a very long season. However, there are still a couple of tournaments that need to be completed and the conclusion of the ATP Finals will be played out over the coming days.
The Davis Cup is also set to go this month before big decisions will be made ahead of the Australian Open when non-vaccinated players look increasingly unlikely to compete. If rumours are correct, the defending Champion will not be playing in Melbourne in January, but that is for another time and right now the focus for Novak Djokovic and the other seven players in Turin is to finish their Singles season off on a solid note before playing team tennis and recuperating for the tough slog of 2022.
Alexander Zverev-Hubert Hurkacz over 22.5 games: A Semi Final spot is on the line for Alexander Zverev, but he has to win this final Group match after investing so much in the middle match before succumbing to a narrow loss to Daniil Medvedev. His opening match only lasted a set and a single game, but that has offered Alexander Zverev a win and he will progress as long as he can win this match.
Nothing has been lost as far as Hubert Hurkacz has been concerned, even with two losses on his sheet in his debut season at the World Tour Finals. All the Polish player has to be thinking is that a win would give him a chance of progressing as long as Daniil Medvedev can beat Jannik Sinner, but ultimately that match won't be of any concern for Hurkacz unless he can win this match.
He won the opening set at the tournament, but Hubert Hurkacz has lost the last four sets in succession and he is going to need to be a lot better than he was in his last match if he is going to beat Alexander Zverev. Hubert Hurkacz would have been expecting to play Matteo Berrettini, but the highest Ranked Italian was forced to withdraw with an injury and another Italian took his place in the Group and I am not sure Hurkacz ever really figured out his game plan to take on Jannik Sinner.
There isn't much familiarity between these players with their sole meeting coming back in March 2019, but there also shouldn't be too much that is unexpected. Both Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Zverev are going to want to use a big first serve to try and get on top of the rallies and that is going to be very important.
However, it can be argued that it is imperative for Hurkacz to serve well as he has struggled with his return in the conditions and it is unlikely to be given a lot from Alexander Zverev who has only been broken once in the tournament. On the other hand, Hubert Hurkacz has to be encouraged by what he can do if he is serving well knowing that Zverev has yet to break serve in the conditions and barely got to grips with what Daniil Medvedev was producing on Tuesday.
The feeling is that Alexander Zverev has a little more in his return game that can make the difference for him and I do think he will win the match. At the same time, I can't expect Hubert Hurkacz to be as poor serving as he was in his heavy defeat to Jannik Sinner and he can at least push his higher Ranked opponent, while helping this match surpass what is a pretty big total games line with all things considered.
There will be some tension to deal with as both players chase the victory that may be enough to secure a Semi Final spot and that may play its part in the contest. Serving well is the best way to control nerves though and I will look for both players to produce their best in this department to ensure enough games are needed to cover the line.
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: Winning a couple of titles and having a couple of other strong runs since the end of the US Open pushed Jannik Sinner into a high enough Ranking to be set as the first alternate at the World Tour Finals. While he will be glad to have an opportunity to play in front of his home fans in the first year the Tour Finals have been played in Turin, Jannik Sinner is likely to be the first to feel for compatriot Matteo Berrettini who has had to withdraw from the event.
The Tour Finals have been played for a long time, but there is a potential of a first this time around and that is having an alternate entering the tournament and then securing passage out of the Group. After crushing Hubert Hurkacz, Jannik Sinner has a chance of doing that as long as the Pole has been able to beat Alexander Zverev earlier in the day.
Having a chance of progressing would be a bonus for Sinner, but I don't think elimination will dent the enthusiasm nor will it quieten down the crowd who will be firmly behind the Italian number two. That should see Jannik Sinner bring his best tennis to the court after a very strong performance a couple of days ago.
Motivation for Daniil Medvedev is harder to understand having put in a huge effort to beat Alexander Zverev a couple of days ago, a result that has secured the Group win and likely avoiding Novak Djokovic before the Final. With that in the bag and with a Semi Final to be played in a couple of days, you have to wonder how much fight Daniil Medvedev will have in this match.
However, I do think the Russian is someone who will be using the energy in the crowd to really give himself a good chance and that should also be a motivating factor for Daniil Medvedev who has previously produced some of his best tennis when seemingly dealing with the crowd as much as anything else.
Daniil Medvedev will also want to just produce a stronger performance than in his first two matches too as that can be important to show opponents that he is looking to win the title here. He has really served well at the ATP World Tour Finals, but the return has been surprisingly underachieving and I do think Medvedev will want to show more on that side of his tennis so he is ready to compete in the Knock Out Rounds.
The head to head has also seen Daniil Medvedev largely dominate Jannik Sinner and both wins have come on an indoor hard court. Those wins have both come in Marseille in 2020 and 2021 and Daniil Medvedev has been able to get a lot more from his serve compared with the young Italian and that has allowed Medvedev pull clear and cover the handicap mark he has been set in this match.
In those two matches, Daniil Medvedev has held 90% of his service games and won 74% of the points played behind serve compared with Jannik Sinner's 65% and 56% marks respectively in those categories.
Those are vastly encouraging numbers, although the motivation side is a concern, and I do think Daniil Medvedev will enjoy playing with the crowd against him. It should see him just show Jannik Sinner that there is still some work to do to challenge the very top players on the Tour and leave him waiting for his first ever top five win on the Tour.
Jannik Sinner has struggled to hold onto serve in those matches, and while he will be aided by the faster conditions here, I do think Daniil Medvedev can find a way to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Hubert Hurkacz Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals: 7-8, - 3.84 Units (30 Units Staked, - 12.80% Yield)
ATP Finals: 3-0, + 5.16 Units (6 Units Staked, + 86% Yield)
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