This has all the makings of a really good match to decide the Champion and it is a rematch of an earlier Group match which was won by Daniil Medvedev.
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: It was the closest match of the week for Daniil Medvedev, but he came through with a win over the opponent he is facing in the final match of ATP Finals in Turin in 2021.
That gives the Russian a huge mental edge as he continues his recent dominance of Alexander Zverev and it was some loose play at big moments that made the first match closer than it perhaps should have been. Daniil Medvedev had a considerable edge on the serving numbers and he has looked much more impressive on his return in the last couple of matches as he has perhaps gotten used to the conditions at this new tournament.
However, Daniil Medvedev might need one more big effort to slow the momentum picked up by Alexander Zverev who has won two pressurised matches to earn his place in the Final. The win over Novak Djokovic will have really give Alexander Zverev plenty of belief, but the timing of that Semi Final is one that might be detrimental as the German tries to get one over his opponent.
Alexander Zverev was playing in the second Semi Final on Saturday and he needed almost two and a half hours to finally get past Novak Djokovic. That would have meant needing a huge physical and mental effort and I do wonder if he is going to be a little short of both when facing a steady Daniil Medvedev who had a straight-forward win in his own Semi Final against Casper Ruud much earlier in the day.
In the last couple of matches, Alexander Zverev has served much better, but Daniil Medvedev has been consistent behind that shot throughout the tournament. In his two toughest matches of the week, Zverev has struggled with his return and I do think that is going to make the difference between these two players in the Final, especially if Daniil Medvedev can build up some pressure with his return and steady groundstrokes.
When they met earlier this week, I mentioned the numbers behind the serve with Daniil Medvedev holding around 91% of his service games compared with Alexander Zverev at around 70% in their four meetings on the hard courts before Turin. It was Daniil Medvedev who earned the sole break of serve when the two met in the Group and I think the Russian player is in the better form, while the additional rest on Saturday should serve him well for this Final.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals: 7-8, - 3.84 Units (30 Units Staked, - 12.80% Yield)
ATP Finals: 7-2, + 9.12 Units (18 Units Staked, + 50.67% Yield)
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