The Tennis continues at the Tour Finals.
Paula Badosa - 2.5 games v Iga Swiatek: The other Group was left with some permutations that could impact both matches before the day of tennis began, but that is not the case in the second Group at the WTA Finals. There is a key match to come in the evening session in Guadalajara, but for Paula Badosa and Iga Swiatek, things are clear ahead of this final Group match.
After consecutive wins, Paula Badosa has moved through to the Semi Final and she will be looking forward to the remainder of the tournament as the Spaniard looks for the biggest title of her career. She won the Indian Wells event, but winning at the WTA Finals would give Paula Badosa an incredible boost and underline the kind of progress she has made on all surfaces in 2021.
While the Spaniard is ready to compete, Iga Swiatek is going to be playing her last match in 2021 having failed to complete the win over Aryna Sabalenka despite taking the first set. This has been another decent season for the Polish youngster, but Iga Swiatek may be looking forward to the upcoming break before preparation will begin for the 2022 Tour that will be ready to go again in a few weeks time.
She hasn't played badly in the tournament and Iga Swiatek was a touch unfortunate to be beaten by Aryna Sabalenka in what was a very competitive match. Mentally you do have to wonder how much is left in the tank for Swiatek having invested as much as she did without any reward and she was the first player eliminated at the WTA Finals.
The numbers have not been good enough from the return and I think Iga Swiatek is not going to be getting a lot of change out of Paula Badosa who has been serving at a consistent level and will be looking to keep some momentum behind them.
The real difference has been the impact on the return of serve and that is where Paula Badosa looks to have a considerable edge over a player she beat at the Olympic Games. In this tournament, Badosa has created almost double the amount of break points as Iga Swiatek has and I do think the momentum is with the Spaniard who will also receive plenty of support from the crowd.
A dead rubber can be difficult to read, but I think Paula Badosa can back up the win over Iga Swiatek from Tokyo and she has played the superior tennis in Guadalajara too.
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Maria Sakkari: There was more frustration coming from Aryna Sabalenka's side of the court after dropping the first set of her second match at the WTA Finals. Errors were flying out of her racquet and it felt like Sabalenka was simply not going to get to grips with the conditions in Guadalajara.
However, Aryna Sabalenka showed tremendous belief to turn the match around against Iga Swiatek and she is the favourite to progress to the Semi Final when she takes on Maria Sakkari in this final Group match. The tennis is clearly good enough to have an impact on this court, but much depends on how well Sabalenka can hold herself together mentally as much as anything else.
She invested a lot into turning the match around against Iga Swiatek, but Maria Sakkari was also on court for over two hours a couple of days ago and she ended up in a losing effort. The performance against Paula Badosa has to be a touch worrying with the heavy hitting of the Spaniard putting Maria Sakkari under pressure for much of the match and now she has to take on a much bigger and more aggressive player.
It is key for Maria Sakkari to serve well- she gave up too many looks at her second serve in the loss to Paula Badosa and doing that here will see Aryna Sabalenka move on the front foot and dictate points. Relying on mistakes from the big hitting Belarusian is not the worst idea in the current conditions, but it is a dangerous approach and one that could really hurt Maria Sakkari if she is allowing Sabalenka to get on the front foot.
Serving well has proved to be particularly important in the altitude this tournament is being played in and that is where you have to believe Aryna Sabalenka has an edge over Maria Sakkari. We have yet to see a really strong serving day from the highest Ranked player in the tournament, but we also know how capable Aryna Sabalenka is behind that shot and it has proven to be a key in her dominant head to head with Maria Sakkari.
The last two wins have been really one-sided in favour of Aryna Sabalenka and that includes their sole match up in 2021. It has been Sabalenka who has created a lot more break points in those matches and I do think she is going to have the majority of chances in this effective Quarter Final.
There will be some twists and turns in the conditions, but Aryna Sabalenka can find a way to win and cover this handicap mark as she moves through to the Semi Final.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Casper Ruud: The ATP World Tour Finals have a new home this year in Turin having spent the last several years in London. While it is still an event played on the indoor hard courts, a new tournament means dealing with new conditions and the early thoughts from players that have been out there is that the court is playing much quicker than most they are used to playing on over the course of the season on the Tour.
It will be interesting to see how the next four players cope and whether it is going to be seen as an event where the serve is going to be very difficult to break down.
That may not be completely evident when the World Number 1 gets his tournament underway as he looks to join Roger Federer on being a six time winner at the end of year Finals. Novak Djokovic may not be able to write his name in history by winning the calendar Grand Slam, but he has had a really strong 2021 and winning the Paris Masters in the build up to the ATP Finals should underline his place as the player to beat going into the new season.
However, in recent years Novak Djokovic has not always found his best tennis at the Tour Finals and the new venue may bring its own challenges. In saying that, Novak Djokovic may be meeting the right player to open the tournament and that is not being disrespectful to Casper Ruud at the end of a very strong season for the young player.
Casper Ruud has won a number of titles and he has been playing some really good tennis, but it does have to be said that there is a mental obstacle for him to overcome. As good as Casper Ruud has been, he has not really been able to compete when facing the top players on the Tour and especially not on the hard courts.
In fact, Casper Ruud has lost all six previous matches against top 10 Ranked players on a hard court, including all four matches in that situation this season. The numbers have been really disappointing and shown a lack of competitiveness in those defeats and that has to be a worry for Casper Ruud ahead of taking on the World Number 1.
His serve can be a good weapon, but Ruud has not really returned very well in those matches against the top players of the ATP Tour. He was also beaten pretty comfortably by Novak Djokovic on the clay courts, the favourite surface for Casper Ruud, and I think the top Seed will have too much for him here as he gets off to a strong start in the new home for the ATP Tour Finals.
MY PICKS: Paula Badosa - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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