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Saturday, 20 November 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 12 2021 (November 20-21)

You wouldn't need more than one hand to count the number of times I have agreed with Jurgen Klopp and admitted to it, but I completely understand his feelings ahead of the return of the Premier League this weekend.

'I hate international breaks'.

His reasons are going to be different to mine, but the largely pointless World Cup Qualifiers are now in the books and it means the top clubs can get ready to embark on a very busy run through to the middle of January.

There is going to be another international break at the end of January, which is the return of the Winter Break for clubs in England's top flight, but between now and then there are going to be a mammoth TWELVE rounds of fixtures to be completed. That doesn't include the two European games that the top clubs in the Premier League will be faced with as well as the League Cup Quarter Final and Semi Final and the FA Cup Third Round all to be played.

Squads are going to be needed and the same can be said for those of us who are playing the Fantasy Football game. I will have a few more thoughts on that below, but first you can see what I think about the upcoming games in the Premier League this weekend.


Leicester City v Chelsea Pick: The last international break until January is now behind us and those playing in England are about to embark on a really intense part of the season. Over the coming six weeks, the Premier League title race could really see some twists and turns with games being played thick and fast.

Those involved in European competition and the League Cup Quarter Final have little time to breathe and the squads are going to need to be utilised to the maximin. It is a situation for both Brendan Rodgers and Thomas Tuchel to deal with, and both managers should be encouraged by the fact that their squads could be overcoming injury issues at just the right time.

It is key for both Leicester City and Chelsea who have plenty of big games to come over the coming weeks and it is important for the managers to see their team come out of the break with a big performance. Leicester City have not been in the best form of late with too many draws blighting their progress, while Chelsea will have been very disappointed after only securing a 1-1 draw with Burnley two weeks ago.

However, Chelsea have been very efficient away from home and they will feel that gives them an edge as they look for a positive response to the last Premier League fixture. They have not given up many chances and Chelsea have founded their success on being hard to break down, while Leicester City have failed to score in home defeats to Manchester City and Arsenal.

Chelsea may also have Romelu Lukaku back this week to lead the line and I do think they are going to be a little too good for their hosts.

Brendan Rodgers will feel his team can play a part, but Chelsea do not give teams a lot of encouragement and I would not be surprised if they can keep another clean sheet here. As good as Leicester City have been under Brendan Rodgers, they have been inconsistent this season and will potentially have to play without Youri Tielemens this weekend.

Jamie Vardy will be well rested and looking to exploit any tiredness in the Chelsea backline, but Leicester City have been inconsistent in the final third. They have been a little stronger at creating chances at home, but Chelsea should be able to hold them at arm's length and win a game that features fewer than four goals on the day.


Aston Villa v Brighton Pick: Things can change really quickly in football and just a little over a month after beating Manchester United at Old Trafford, Aston Villa were Sacking their manager Dean Smith.

They didn't really wait too long before announcing that Steven Gerrard had accepted the vacant job at Aston Villa after a strong tenure managing Rangers in the Scottish Premiership. It is a risky move for both the club and the manager as they look to come together and start moving away from the relegation zone.

A new manager bounce could be in play on Saturday and Gerrard may benefit from the squad returning from the international break looking healthier than when they went into the November break. Aston Villa have been underperforming, but Dean Smith had not been helped by the injuries and his new signings have yet to really settle in and replace Jack Grealish.

Steven Gerrard will have to find a way to get more from those players, but you have to imagine the atmosphere will give the squad another boost.

Aston Villa will have a tough outing against Brighton who have proven to be a difficult team to beat, but who can be vulnerable unless they find a way to be a little more productive in the final third. Earlier in the season they looked to have figured out the issues from last season, but once again Brighton have looked a team that will create chances without the consistency to take them.

It cost them two points in the home draw with Newcastle United and Brighton have only scored more than a single goal in 1 of their last 6 Premier League games. That did come in their last away game at Liverpool, but Brighton are hard to trust when they continue to lack a killer end product to their football.

They should be able to create chances at Villa Park considering what we have seen from the home team, but the new manager is someone who is keen on having a solid foundation. There hasn't been enough time to really imagine Steven Gerrard can have a serious impact on the defensive shape of Aston Villa just yet, but this feels the kind of game where the new manager bounce could really play out.

As inconsistent as Aston Villa have been and as much as the confidence will have been dented by the 5 game losing run, they are a team that has enough quality to score goals. Brighton will be without their first choice goalkeeper this week and I think Aston Villa will reward their new manager with a positive approach to produce a positive result this Saturday.


Burnley v Crystal Palace Pick: Neither of these teams will be considered as title challengers, but both have surprised leading clubs in the Premier League in the couple of weeks before the November international break.

Burnley weathered the storm to earn a 1-1 draw at Chelsea, but Crystal Palace did a little better all around when beating Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium the week prior to that.

No one will be that surprised to see Burnley picking up some big results under Sean Dyche and they look to be moving with some positive momentum behind them. The previous experiences under Sean Dyche suggested it would happen for Burnley if they remained patient, but Crystal Palace fans have to be pleasantly surprised by the early impact made by Patrick Vieira.

It is one thing if Vieira had come into Selhurst Park and just looked to operate in a similar way to Roy Hodgson, but the former Arsenal Captain has improved the football being played by Crystal Palace. He has been rewarded for that approach with some big results and Crystal Palace have been able to turn a few draws into the wins they have deserved.

The away record may not make for great reading, but Crystal Palace are arguably overachieving despite only earning 5 points from a possible 15 on their travels. Four of their five away games have been at the current top four in the Premier League and the other was a fixture at the much improved Arsenal so the points on the board show how well Crystal Palace are doing.

They have scored at least twice in 3 of their 5 away games and that attacking threat has to be a problem for Burnley. As much as the results have improved of late, Burnley have still been a team that allows teams to create chances against them and Crystal Palace have also got to be respected for the way they have performed defensively.

Burnley did snap their 14 game run without a home Premier League win when beating Brentford here in their last game at Turf Moor. However, Crystal Palace are playing with a lot more confidence than Brentford at the moment and this is a team who can create the chances to win at Turf Moor on Saturday.


Newcastle United v Brentford Pick: A new manager arrives at Newcastle United and the fans have to be hoping that Eddie Howe can spark an upturn in form for their struggling club. The future looks bright for Newcastle United, but there could be a delay to the good times if the club are relegated to the Championship.

The main task for Eddie Howe over the coming six weeks is to make sure his team are in touch with those clubs outside of the relegation zone. That is when Newcastle United can use the January transfer window to bring in some real quality to ensure they are not dropping out of the top flight.

Eddie Howe won't be fooled by the task in front of him, but he has experienced a relegation battle before and that may stand him in good stead with Newcastle United. There are also a number of players he would have worked with previously and the fixtures coming up in the next two weeks look very winnable on paper.

After the recent Brentford results, this is another fixture that the home team have to be targeting. Thomas Frank has seen his team lose some momentum with 4 straight Premier League defeats, but the performances have remained relatively strong and that will be important for a club that really uses the statistical side of the game to their benefit.

The worst of the recent performances has been the 3-1 defeat at Burnley and that is a concern for Brentford ahead of this game as they look to douse the enthusiasm that will likely build at St James' Park. That has been an exception rather than a rule for Brentford though and I do think they will cause plenty of problems for their hosts who have conceded goals for fun for much of this season.

With that in mind it is perhaps a surprise that Newcastle United have appointed someone like Eddie Howe whose Bournemouth team used to concede an alarming amount of goals in the Premier League. I think the manager will make use of some of the attacking quality in the squad, but Newcastle United could remain a work in progress defensively and I think Brentford are capable of exploiting that.

Losing their starting goalkeeper to an injury has put some doubt into the Brentford defensive performances too though and I think both teams can find the back of the net. Neither is likely going to be satisfied with a 1-1 result and I think that will mean two teams playing with attacking intent throughout much of the afternoon which could spark into a lively fixture.


Norwich City v Southampton Pick: There is an irony in the fact that the last time Dean Smith managed Aston Villa came in a fixture against Southampton and that is the same opponent that will be in front of his new team, Norwich City, when he takes charge of this team for the first time.

It will be interesting to see how much Dean Smith learned from that experience in the 1-0 defeat at St Mary's which ended up being the result that decided his future as Aston Villa manager. And it was surprising to see the manager jump straight back in with Norwich City who have so much work to do to even be competitive at this level.

Norwich City do have some momentum having beaten Brentford two weeks ago before Daniel Farke was Sacked, but they are a team that have struggled at both ends of the field. At least this week they are facing an opponent that has rarely been able to score multiple times within the same match, although Southampton have been pretty secure defensively and that has enabled them to win 3 of their last 4 League games.

However, they don't score a lot of goals and it should give Norwich City a chance of securing a result. They have played better here than their results would indicate and a new manager could see the squad just put in the extra effort to show they are capable of being trusted.

Two seasons ago, Southampton beat Norwich City easily here.

However, they had stronger and more consistent attacking options that day and one goal may be enough for Norwich City to get the Dean Smith era off to a positive start. It may not be good enough for the three points, but Norwich City may be able to secure at least a point against a Southampton team who have not travelled that well and who continue to struggle for goals.


Watford v Manchester United Pick: It speaks volumes that Manchester United have allowed Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to remain in charge of the club despite embarrassing 0-5 and 0-2 losses at Old Trafford to Liverpool and Manchester City. Clouded thinking has become the norm at Manchester United from the very top of the club and the fans are becoming increasingly frustrated at what they see as poor planning.

The match-going fans are very unlikely to turn on the manager, but that does not hide the fact that many of those have begun to give up on their current manager. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is much admired by the fans, but even the likes of David Moyes and Jose Mourinho were supported to the very end.

However, it would be foolish of the manager and the board to believe that the inconsistent performances can continue indefinitely. Losing half of their last 12 games in all competitions is a real worry, while Manchester United have needed goals inside the last nine minutes to even manage 3 wins.

Away form has been a little stronger than at Old Trafford and that is important for Solskjaer and the Manchester United team ahead of a very big week out of the November international break.

This looks the 'easiest' of the three away games to be played, but Manchester United have lost 2 of their last 4 visits to Vicarage Road and can ill-afford to take Watford lightly. Claudio Ranieri has yet to work his magic to full effect at Watford and his team have failed to score in 3 of their 4 League games under their new manager, but there have been one or two signs of defensive improvement in the last couple of games.

Watford are still looking for the balance between attack and defence, but they will feel there are gaps in the Manchester United defence that can be exploited if they are able to build momentum. They have rattled Manchester United in home games over recent years, but Watford have to be aware of their own frailties and this feels like a match in which both teams will have their moments of success.

The last fixture between these teams here ended 2-0 to Watford, but the 7 prior to that at Vicarage Road have all ended with at least three goals shared out. Neither team can be too confident of being able to keep the other out in this one and I think goals are likely to be the outcome of the fixture.

It is a vital game for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and his Manchester United team, but they have looked far from sure of themselves of late and this has the makings of a 2-1 score... Which way? That's the question.


Wolves v West Ham United Pick: A stunning 3-2 home win over Liverpool has kept the good times rolling at West Ham United and they are now up to 3rd in the Premier League table and with a real belief they can earn a Champions League spot at the least.

Strong performances on the field in all competitions they have entered will excite the fans, but a potential new owner off the field could take West Ham United forward very quickly. David Moyes won't be worrying too much about the impact that will have for him and his transfer budget just yet, but instead he will be looking for his team to continue building the momentum in each passing match.

The manager will not want his team to drop their intensity, but it can be a challenge out of an international break and that is something that West Ham United will have to face head on. They have really enjoyed playing away from home and West Ham United have been creating a lot of chances and scoring plenty of goals which makes them very dangerous here.

In recent games Wolves have looked a touch more vulnerable defensively and I do think West Ham United can expose those with their attacking intent.

However, Wolves have also been in good form and they have recovered from a slow start to the season to move into the top eight. Losing to Crystal Palace will have hurt, but Wolves had won 4 of 5 Premier League games before that and they have won their last 2 League games at Molinuex.

Both of those wins have come in 2-1 scorelines and Wolves have looked like a team that have more of an attacking edge under their current manager, but one that is not as secure defensively as they were under Nuno Espirito Santo.

It could lead to an exciting game with both teams looking to get forward in numbers and I do think we will see at least three goals shared out on the day. My edge has to be with West Ham United who look to have more of a consistent threat outside of their Number 9, but Wolves can play their part and both teams are likely to hit the net in a relatively high-scoring game on Saturday.


Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: After a really poor August, Arsenal have been motoring up the League table over the last couple of months.

There have been some impressive performances and results in that time, most notably being the 0-2 victory at Leicester City, but Mikel Arteta is going to find out plenty about his team this weekend. This time Arsenal will be significant underdogs when they head to Anfield to take on a genuine title contender, but The Gunners may be visiting at the right time.

Injuries have hurt Liverpool throughout the squad and they look like they could be down another couple of players after international duty. The squad is being stretched again and Liverpool have looked a little vulnerable of late, even if those cracks were papered over in the big win at Manchester United.

In their last couple of Premier League games, Liverpool have conceded five goals to Brighton and West Ham United and that is a major concern for them. They could be without Andrew Robertson this weekend too, while they are likely down at least one key midfielder too.

It gives Arsenal a chance here, but they will have to be careful with their defensive performance regardless of what their results may tell you. Arsenal have been earning clean sheets, but Leicester City and Burnley have created good chances against them and Liverpool are the form team in the Premier League when it comes to attacking output.

Sadio Mane would be a big absentee to add to Roberto Firmino and that is the one worry for Liverpool, but Mohamed Salah is available and should be good to go. He has played like the best player in the world and Salah has scored plenty of goals against Arsenal, as he has against most teams he faces.

Liverpool have been very creative at home and they are scoring goals for fun no matter where they play, so it is a big test for Arsenal and where they are at with their own football. The young players have performed without any fear, which makes Arsenal dangerous, but they might not be able to weather the Anfield atmosphere in the late kick off and Liverpool have largely dominated Arsenal in recent years.

In home games in the Premier League, Liverpool have scored a hatful of goals against Arsenal in recent seasons and they can come out and get the better of an overachieving team with a good looking win in front of the television cameras.


Manchester City v Everton Pick: The return to domestic action comes at the beginning of a really tough stretch for every club in the Premier League, but Manchester City have the squad to cope with the demands in front of them.

This is a big week for Manchester City with three home games to come and they can secure top spot in their Champions League Group with a win over Paris Saint-Germain during the week. However, Manchester City cannot overlook their Premier League commitments as they look to keep the pressure on leaders Chelsea having closed the gap after comfortably beating rivals Manchester United at Old Trafford two weeks ago.

Manchester City were beaten in their last Premier League game at home as they struggled to deal with Crystal Palace, but they were not helped by being reduced to ten men. Before that defeat, Manchester City had kept 5 home clean sheets in a row in the Premier League and they are likely to have much of the play in this one.

Rafael Benitez is managing a team with more quality than his Newcastle United team that used to be set up to limit the damage when facing Manchester City. However, I expect the manager to want his Everton team to be compact and try and exploit Manchester City on the counter attack and the tactic will be clear from the off.

However, his Everton team are lacking confidence of late and they created very little at home against Tottenham Hotspur. Now they face a better defensive team, while Everton continue to miss the likes of Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dominic Calvert-Lewin which may mean they are not able to attack Manchester City as they would like.

I expect there to be a couple of dangerous moments for Everton, but the majority of the game is going to be played in their half.

Manchester City have only won 1 of their last 3 home Premier League games, but they should be able to create chances against an Everton team who had been conceding goals at an alarming rate before the goalless draw with Tottenham Hotspur.

It has been a case of feast or famine for Manchester City in front of goal at the Etihad Stadium, but they have mainly been very comfortable in games here. They have rarely been threatened and I think they can contain Everton in a home win to move into the big game with Paris Saint-Germain with confidence in their own level.


Tottenham Hotspur v Leeds United Pick: Some of the top managerial names in the world are operating in the Premier League and this is a match between two teams led by a couple of those.

Antonio Conte versus Marcelo Bielsa should be interesting to watch on the sidelines as much as what we will see on the pitch. Tottenham Hotspur have only just been taken on by Antonio Conte so this is a work in progress, but there has been enough from the first couple of games to believe the players will be much happier under the Italian than they were with Nuno Espirito Santo in charge.

Leeds United will know exactly what Marcelo Bielsa will be expecting of them and there has been an improvement in their performances. However, they have missed Patrick Bamford in recent weeks and the England international may not be quite ready to produce a full effort in this system.

His absence would give Tottenham Hotspur the edge and the fans will be excited to have seen the impact Harry Kane had for England. He has yet to produce the goods for Spurs this season, but Kane could be ready to fire under their current manager and this is a chance for him.

As well as Leeds United have competed of late, they are a team that will give up some chances and that is where Tottenham Hotspur can expose them. In what has been a disappointing season, the bottom line is that Tottenham Hotspur have beaten the teams they would have expected to at home and this Leeds United team will fit under that category.

I do think the visitors can cause one or two problems of their own, particularly through Raphinha, but Tottenham Hotspur should create the majority of the chances. With the fans behind them as they welcome Antonio Conte in the Premier League, I think Tottenham Hotspur can beat Leeds United in a game that features two or more goals on the day.

MY PICKS: Chelsea to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Aston Villa 0 Asian Handicap
Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United-Brentford Over 2.5 Goals
Norwich City + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Watford-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals
Wolves-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester City Win to Nil
Tottenham Hotspur to Win & Over 1.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 12
It was far from an easy set of fixtures between the October and November international break and my Fantasy Premier League team had been suffering, but a solid GameWeek 11 has at least pushed my team back up the Overall Rankings.

I need more out of the selections being made, but I did manage to carry a Free Transfer over through the latest international break and that means I have two to play with in GW12.

Robert Sanchez was sent off in his last fixture against Newcastle United so the suspension means I am likely going to use one of those transfers on moving in a new Goalkeeper. With the fixtures coming up and with the form being shown by teams, my clearest option looks to be picking up Vincent Guaita from Crystal Palace considering the fixtures that are coming up for The Eagles.

Aaron Ramsdale is a popular choice, but Arsenal are overachieving defensively with the chances they have been giving up and I do think the fixtures look pretty tough to negotiate in the weeks ahead. The Gunners can earn a couple of clean sheets in their next six games and Ramsdale has proved himself capable of producing save points, but Vincent Guaita's Crystal Palace look to have the better run of games and I won't feel the need to remove him from my choices until the New Year.


But what about the other transfer? Before the Sanchez issue, I was thinking about finding the value to upgrade Kai Havertz to Heung-Min Son.

After Roberto Firmino was ruled out and looked like he could be missing a number of weeks, my focus was perhaps changing Havertz to Diogo Jota.

A couple of weeks ago it looked certain that Chelsea would have Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner available for the trip to the King Power Stadium, but both are now unlikely to start and that means Havertz can be kept around for the next GameWeek.

All in all it makes it a viable idea to roll the transfer again and have two Free Transfers in the pocket in GameWeek 13.

By then we should have much more information on the likes of Firmino and Andrew Robertson, and it will also mean I can focus on moves that I believe I have identified as being important.

For example, I would like to sell Michail Antonio, but I do think a visit to Wolves is not the time to do that. Another player is Cristiano Ronaldo, but Manchester United have a tough run after GameWeek 12 so this doesn't feel an ideal time to change him either.

I quite like the make up of my squad outside of the goalkeeper issue in GameWeek 12 and I think the options off the bench will cover any absentees. I am planning to post my team on Twitter at around 12pm on Saturday, half an hour after the deadline this week, but the starting eleven is very similar to the one I would have employed even if the international break had not created a gap between fixtures.


The Captain choice is perhaps the most difficult- a part of me is keen on picking Cristiano Ronaldo, but Mohamed Salah's record against Arsenal and being at home means it is hard to overlook the Egyptian.

However, the Watford defence have been truly terrible at home which is swaying me back to the Portuguese legend leading the line for Manchester United. You have to expect a more attacking approach from Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, if only to ease the pressure that has built up on him, and that could suit Ronaldo who will be dangerous throughout and with a week off since last playing for Portugal in the World Cup Qualifiers.

In saying that, I have already mentioned that Arsenal's defensive numbers are perhaps papering over the actual performances. Even an injury hit Liverpool team should be able to create chances against them at Anfield and Mohamed Salah is likely to be a key player towards that.

It is a decision I am going to sleep on before making on Saturday morning, while any second transfer will also be used then. My strong lean in terms of the transfers is to simply bring in the Crystal Palace goalkeeper in place of Robert Sanchez as a set and forget until the New Year and that should mean having options to reshape the squad next week.

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