Things had been going smoothly for the NFL Picks, but three losing weeks in four is one issue.
The bigger one is how bad the last two weeks have been.
Some really poor Picks have frustrated, but I have also been bashed by the bounce of the ball going against me and it has been a disappointing run. One that I am not looking to keep going through another Week as we move past the halfway mark of the season.
I need to be better as much as needing better fortune, but hopefully that begins on Thursday Night Football and rolls through the entirety of Week 10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Thursday Night Football is always a difficult time for teams with the short week meaning there is not enough preparation time, nor enough time for players to get healthier after battling a few days earlier. It has been particularly difficult for those teams that have played an Overtime game prior to Thursday Night Football, but that looks to be the most pressing concern for the Baltimore Ravens (6-2) who moved back to the top of the AFC North with a win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9.
It might be surprising to fans of the Ravens that their team is in this position having been blown out at home by the Cincinnati Bengals prior to the Week 8 Bye, but the Bungles, I mean Bengals, have lost back to back games. The Division is a very competitive one with all four teams holding a winning record as we head past the halfway mark of the season for most teams in the NFL.
That should mean the Ravens are focused even when playing a really bad Miami Dolphins (2-7) team who backed into a win over the Houston Texans in Week 9 to snap their seven game losing run. The Dolphins earned fewer yards than the Texans on the day and it was an ugly game featuring a host of turnovers, while most Miami fans will accept that they are going to need to score more than 17 points if they are going to win this one.
The Baltimore Ravens may not be the Defensive force they once were, but it is hard to trust the Miami Dolphins who have been held to 17 points or fewer in four of their last six games. The Dolphins own Defensive unit has been struggling as injuries have piled up and a team that has had a host of high Draft Picks in recent seasons have seemingly continued to make mistakes in their evaluations.
One of those players that looks to have an uncertain future with the Miami Dolphins is Tua Tagovailoa- he has struggled in the NFL when he has played, but it may be an even bigger concern that his injury issues from College have continued in the professional game and he actually missed the Week 9 win over the Texans. There are doubts about Tagovailoa with the short week and that means Jacoby Brissett will likely be Quarter Back again after a difficult performance in the win over the Houston Texans.
Tua Tagovailoa will be a game-time decision on Thursday Night Football, but I think it is going to be very tough for whoever Quarter Backs the Miami Dolphins. The play-calling is poor and the Offensive Line has really been having a hard time in both pass protection and run blocking. The Dolphins didn't do much on the ground in their win over the Texans and I am not sure they are going to have much more success against the Ravens Defensive Line, even after some of the holes we have seen up front.
I do think the Quarter Back may get a little more time than they have been used to, but Miami are being hit hard by injuries in the Receiving corps and they have not really shown they are capable of moving the ball with much consistency. Jacoby Brissett has struggled and a limited Tua Tagovailoa may have his own issues and putting that together suggests this will be another tough Offensive outing.
The Miami Defensive unit stepped up and made some big plays to secure the win over the Texans in Week 9, but stopping Tyrod Taylor off a long lay-off and the horrific Texans is a different test than trying to do the same with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Lamar Jackson has shown massive improvements again in 2021 and may be the leading contender for MVP alongside Tom Brady, and the Quarter Back is no longer a run-first player.
In recent weeks the Miami Defensive Line have just become a little tougher to run against, but that is going to be tested by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Quarter Back carried 21 times in the win over the Minnesota Vikings, but veterans Devonta Freeman and Le'Veon Bell showed life at Running Back and between the three players I do think the Ravens can establish the run from which their success can be managed.
It would be foolish to ignore the improvements Lamar Jackson has made throwing the ball and I think he will expose the Miami Secondary even though Xavien Howard was back in the win over Houston. Lamar Jackson has some quality Receivers at his disposal and I think he will be able to extend plays and hit those down the field, even if the Baltimore Offensive Line has had difficulty when it comes to pass protection.
Baltimore are 1-5 against the spread in their last six as a favourite and they have struggled when favoured by more than 7 points so far this season. That is a little discouraging even if I think the Miami Dolphins are going to struggle with their own Offensive output in this game.
However, I do think the Ravens have to be respected for their 4-1-1 record against the spread in their last six Thursday Night Football games. They have also crushed the Miami Dolphins the last three times these teams have met, including a 49 point shellacking two years ago, while the Dolphins are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.
The last three Ravens wins over Miami have come by an average of 40 points per game and I do think they can follow the Indianapolis Colts by beating an AFC East opponent on Thursday Night Football after winning in Overtime the game prior. Teams in that spot have struggled, but Indianapolis covered in that situation in Week 9 and I think this could be a rare opportunity for the Ravens to produce a big win on the road.
It is not easy to trust them having played so many close games this season, but I am not convinced Miami will be able to score enough points to stay with their visitors in what has been an underwhelming season for the Dolphins.
The spread could come down if Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to play and that would actually make Baltimore even more appealing, but the backup Jacoby Brissett may not be able to do enough himself and Lamar Jackson can underline MVP aspirations by leading his team to a good looking win here.
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans Pick: If the season was to finish now, both the Tennessee Titans (7-2) and the New Orleans Saints (5-3) would be involved in the PlayOffs. However, injuries have had an impact on both of these teams and it will be interesting to see which of them, if any, are able to deal with those best going forward.
The win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9 will have given the Titans belief that they will find a way to manage without Derrick Henry at Running Back. One of the top players at the position, Henry could return in the PlayOffs, but for now the Titans will be having to use a Committee at Running Back with veteran Adrian Peterson perhaps the premier Back and we will learn a lot about this team.
A win will be highly encouraging for the Tennessee Titans, but Mike Vrabel will know his team need to be better if they are going to hold onto the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. They do have wins over some of their biggest rivals and you can imagine the public have to be wondering why the layers are giving them such a gift of a spread with the Titans.
That is especially the case when you think of how the New Orleans Saints were beaten by the Atlanta Hawks in Week 9 without Jameis Winston, while they are also going to be without Alvin Kamara for this game. That means Trevor Siemian and Mark Ingram behind the Offensive Line and it is hard to trust the current Quarter Back considering what we have seen from him throughout his career.
Sean Payton is an Offensive minded Head Coach and he could bring in Taysom Hill to take some snaps at Quarter Back, but Trevor Siemian and the Saints are coming in off a defeat to the Atlanta Hawks and this is a team that has not looked their best on the Offensive side of the ball.
Even with that in mind, the New Orleans Saints have a chance in this game and that is because they seem to match up pretty well with the Tennessee Titans. The Offensive Line should be able to find some running room for Mark Ingram even without Alvin Kamara's skillset in the backfield, and they are able to give the Quarter Back some time to make some plays down the field.
As well as the Titans have played, they are a team who have recently given up plenty of yards on the ground. Trevor Siemian has to avoid the mistakes that cost the Los Angeles Rams last week and throwing into this Secondary can be dangerous, but he should be given all of the support from his Head Coach to keep the chains moving.
In recent years the New Orleans Saints have been known for their powerful Offensive unit, but it is the Defensive unit that has stepped up for them this season. The Saints Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run and they will feel they can restrict the Titans without Derrick Henry in the backfield and that will shift the pressure onto Ryan Tannehill.
The Quarter Back has some big time Receiving threats that could help him move the ball through the air, but Tennessee are reliant on the run and being able to clamp down at the line of scrimmage will be a huge win for the road team. It will allow New Orleans to unleash the pass rush, which has been effective, and they will be able to give the Titans Offensive Line some fits that can end up stalling drives and perhaps forcing Field Goals rather than Touchdowns.
New Orleans are 23-8 against the spread in their last thirty-one games as the road underdog and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five following a loss.
I can only respect Mike Vrabel and the Titans who have not only been winning games, but they have covered in their last five in a row. However, I think they may not score enough points to cover here and the New Orleans Saints should be much better than Week 9 and can keep this close enough with the points behind them.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots Pick: Three wins in a row have just pushed the New England Patriots (5-4) back above 0.500 for the season and the fans will be hoping that their team is on course for a return to the PlayOffs after missing out in 2020. There is work to do and the AFC looks like it will be closely fought when it comes to the Divisional Winners as well as the Wild Card places in the extended post-season.
Games like this may be non-Division, but it could have a huge impact on the Wild Card race as the Patriots get set to host the Cleveland Browns (5-4) who looked to be slipping away with three losses in four games before blowing out rivals the Cincinnati Bengals.
Baker Mayfield had arguably his best game of the season just days after Odell Beckham Jr was released by the Browns, but injuries have hit Cleveland hard in the Running Back area. Nick Chubb is expected to miss out, while Kareem Hunt is injured and that means the Browns are going to be down to D'Ernest Johnson at that position.
Obviously being without Nick Chubb would be a blow, but D'Ernest Johnson has played well in relief of the star Running Back already this season and the Browns have full belief in their Offensive Line to set the table. It should be the case in Week 10 when they face the New England Patriots who have a Defensive Line that has given up some big plays on the ground in recent games and I do think the Browns will be ahead of the chains Offensively.
Running the ball should open things up for Baker Mayfield, but he won't need to do a lot as long as Cleveland can control the clock and keep themselves in front of the chains. That opens up play-action and the Browns showed last week that they can find good balance Offensively, which should give the road underdog every chance of perhaps even earning the upset here.
Offensive struggles have held the Browns back in recent weeks, but the performances against the Cincinnati Bengals will be encouraging. And during that time, the Defensive unit have continued to play at a high level which has kept the Browns in games, even when they have fallen to a loss.
Controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball will give the Browns a real opportunity to win in Foxboro and they are capable of doing that. While they are without their top Running Back, the Browns are facing a New England team that could also be missing a couple of their players in that position and whose Offensive Line have not been as strong at opening running lanes as their counterparts on the other sideline.
Stopping the run, or containing it, is huge for teams in the NFL and this Cleveland Defense has played well enough to believe they can make it very difficult for Mac Jones at Quarter Back. The rookie has played really well this season, better than expected, and he will believe in his own ability.
However, it can be tough for a young Quarter Back to continue to try and move the chains from third and long and that could be a situation that New England are having to deal with on Sunday. Mac Jones will have some success, but he will have to be aware of the strong Cleveland pass rush which has helped a Browns Secondary turn the ball over.
I do like Cleveland in Week 10 and I think they can certainly keep this close by controlling the line of scrimmage. Losing Nick Chubb hurts, but D'Ernest Johnson has shown he can hit the holes hard behind this Cleveland Offensive Line. I expect he can do enough and Baker Mayfield will make the plays to try and secure the upset.
The Browns have a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six as the road underdog and I think they can use their strong Offensive Line to keep this one close.
Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: They are still looking for a first win of the season, but the Detroit Lions (0-8) will be coming out of a Bye Week looking to change that fact. Having lost all eight games, it can be difficult to back them, even with the amount of points that Detroit are being given, but I do think the Lions are potentially dangerous.
Some may scoff at that and especially when you think they are playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) who have won four in a row to move above 0.500 and getting back in contention in the AFC North. Mike Tomlin has to be given a lot of credit for the way the Steelers are knuckling down and finding wins, but Ben Roethlisberger has admitted that they are still some way from their best.
Pittsburgh have won four in a row, but the last three wins have come by a combined 10 points and that should underline how inconsistent they have been. The Steelers are struggling on the Offensive side of the ball and I do think that makes it hard to believe they are going to blow out any team they face, even one that is searching for a first win.
I love the way that Najee Harris has been playing and how well he has taken to the professional game, but the Steelers have an inconsistent Offensive Line and they have not been racking up big yards on the ground. Instead it has been a methodical approach from the Steelers and I think Harris is going to have a decent game, if he starts, but the Lions have a Defensive Line that will feel they can make some plays up front.
The Lions may not be able to get a lot of pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, but the Quarter Back is not the player he once was and the deep shot has not been a big part of the Pittsburgh Offensive game-plan. Again, it should be a methodical approach from the Steelers which takes plenty of time off the clock and the Lions should be well prepared out of their Bye under Head Coach Dan Campbell which should see them play well enough on this side of the ball to keep this game within reach.
A major question for the Detroit Lions is whether they can find enough on the Offensive side of the ball to stay with the Steelers. Jared Goff is coming in off a really bad outing, but he should be given a little more support from the running game against a surprisingly open Pittsburgh Defensive Line.
It is all important for the Lions to try and keep the pressure off their Quarter Back and not have Jared Goff having to throw from third and long too often in this one. More importantly, Detroit's Offensive Line have not really been able to protect Jared Goff as the Quarter Back would have liked and they will want to keep the Steelers powerful pass rush from infiltrating the backfield by having short yardage situations to deal with.
That pass rush could be the key to the win for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Detroit Lions should be able to do enough to keep this relatively close.
The Steelers have not covered any of their last seven as the home favourite and that makes it hard to trust a team that is being asked to cover more than a Touchdown worth of points here. Detroit have extra preparation time and they are 14-6 against the spread in their last twenty off a blowout defeat at home and I do think the Lions can stay with their hosts in another competitive loss.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Only the Tennessee Titans can boast having a winning record in the AFC South, but the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) will be looking to get back to 0.500 and at least becoming involved in the Wild Card race. The Colts won on Thursday Night Football in Week 9 and the extra time will do them well to just get a little healthier and prepare for a Divisional game.
The Colts will be focused as they are getting ready to host the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) who doubled their win total in 2021 when producing arguably the biggest upset of the season in a home win over the Buffalo Bills. Much of that was down to the strong Defensive effort produced by the Jaguars and they will need all of that in this one as they look to secure back to back wins and play spoiler for a Divisional rival.
A win is a win so you can't take anything away from Jacksonville from Week 9, but you also have to accept that they are going to need to produce a lot more Offense if they are going to win on the road. It would be a big help if James Robinson is back, but this is going to be a game-time decision for the Jaguars and I am not sure Carlos Hyde will be a big worry for the Indianapolis Colts Defensive Line to deal with.
James Robinson is a different kind of threat and one that has to be respected wherever he lines up on the field and when he leaks out of the backfield, but that is not really the case with the veteran Carlos Hyde. The Colts have been pretty stout up front as injuries have cleared up and I do think they can force the Jaguars to have to rely on Trevor Lawrence and the passing game to find any consistency in moving the chains.
Trevor Lawrence has been well protected, but the Jaguars have not had a consistent passing game, although there are some holes in the Indianapolis Secondary that can be exposed. It is a different story trying to do that from third and long, but the Jaguars can have some success when they are in front of the chains with the Offensive Line offering Lawrence some decent protection.
The Jaguars can have some success, but they have not exactly lit up the scoreboard in the last couple of games and that could be a real problem against an Indianapolis Colts team that have been much stronger Offensively since Carson Wentz has recovered to full health. The Quarter Back has been largely doing good enough, although he accepted the blame for the Colts loss to the Titans, and it helps Carson Wentz massively that the Indianapolis Offensive Line have opened up massive holes for Jonathan Taylor to power the run.
I love what Jonathan Taylor is doing and I expect him to get things going on the ground, which should make life all the easier for Carson Wentz. He is well protected by the Colts Offensive Line and I think Carson Wentz has the playmakers who can hurt the Jacksonville Secondary and help Indianapolis put up some big points once again.
The Colts have beaten the Jaguars by 20 points and 14 points in their last couple of home games against this rival and I do think they are capable of putting a big win together here. The Jaguars are off the emotional win over the Buffalo Bills and they may have a letdown, while I can't help but remember how they were blown out by the Geno Smith led Seattle Seahawks in their last road game.
Jacksonville are 1-4 against the spread in their last five after a win, so a letdown after the win over the Buffalo Bills can't be discounted even in a Divisional game.
The Colts have covered in their last four against a team with a losing record so they are doing what is expected of them when it is expected and I will look for the home team to earn a big win on the day.
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: A sub-par performance saw the Dallas Cowboys (6-2) blown out by the Denver Broncos in Week 9 and you just have to wonder whether that is a sign of things to come, or just a really bad spot for the team. They had won with a backup Quarter Back in Week 8 and having Dak Prescott back may have seen the team just lose a bit of focus against a non-Conference opponent.
There is another factor that could have served as a distraction- the Cowboys Defensive Co-Ordinator, Dan Quinn, has had a big impact with the team in 2021 and this is a revenge game for him as he faces a team he led to a Super Bowl place as Head Coach.
The Atlanta Falcons (4-4) upset the New Orleans Saints last time out and they are back at 0.500 for the season, but they have not really played with any real consistency this season. There has been a lot of positive talk about Dan Quinn, but you have to believe the Cowboys will benefit from his inside knowledge of the team they are facing this week and I do think they can have a big bounce back performance.
Dallas look the team to beat in the NFC East and even the defeat to the Broncos should not distract from the positives we have seen from them this season. The Offensive Line has not been as dominant as they would have liked in recent games, but I do think Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard will have a much bigger impact in this game compared with the one in Week 9 and they should be able to establish the run against a pretty average Atlanta Defensive Line.
These two players are key to everything the Cowboys want to do and moving the team in front of the chains should make things that much easier for Dak Prescott and the passing game. I expect Elliot and Pollard to have some nice numbers, but I also think the Quarter Back will be much healthier than he looked in the last game.
Dak Prescott will have time to make his throws and his Receiving corps is excellent, so it will be difficult for the Atlanta Secondary to stop the Dallas Cowboys.
It will be down to the Falcons Offense to try and keep up with the Cowboys and Matt Ryan has shown flashes of his best during the season. However, the Falcons have been really inconsistent and you can't always know what is coming from a team that is trying to back up an upset of Divisional rivals the New Orleans Saints.
Matt Ryan is not helped by an Offensive Line that has not really been opening many running lanes nor looked that comfortable in giving their Quarter Back a lot of time. The Falcons are likely to have some difficulty running the ball and any time they are in third and long spots, the Dallas Cowboys have shown they can generate a pass rush to get to the Quarter Back and force errors.
The Cowboys couldn't stop Teddy Bridgewater last week, but I expect much better execution all around from them in Week 10 and especially in trying to help Dan Quinn earn some revenge. Calvin Ridley is looking after his mental health so he won't be with the Falcons, and Matt Ryan may not have a lot of options when it comes to throwing the ball, while the Dallas Defense should be given the vulnerabilities of the Quarter Back from Quinn.
This is a big spread and Atlanta are 11-5 against the spread in their last sixteen on the road. However, the layers are only making Dallas a slightly bigger favourite than a Trevor Siemian led New Orleans in Week 9 and I think that is underestimating the Cowboys considerably.
The Falcons are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games following a win, while Dallas are 5-1 against the spread in their last six after a defeat.
Playing hard for their Defensive Co-Ordinator should mean Dallas are capable of avoiding the backdoor cover from Matty Ice and the Falcons and I will look for the Cowboys to secure a big home win to bounce back from the terrible performance in Week 9.
MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Las Vegas Raiders + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)
Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)
Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)
Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)
Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
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