The regular season is winding down in College Football and that means teams are jockeying for position to at least win a Conference Championship even if they are not going to be invited into the College Football PlayOff in December/January.
Very few issues have been decided going into Week 12 and there are some huge games to be played in the Conferences around the nation before the big Thanksgiving Weekend coming up.
After a winning week, I am looking to back that up with another with the regular season coming to a close over the next few days.
Iowa State Cyclones @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The PlayOff Committee didn't really like the Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) while they were unbeaten so a first defeat of the season has unsurprisingly seen them drop further in the Rankings. At this point, the Sooners are going to have to do something pretty special and require a lot of help to return to the PlayOffs and I honestly think they would be placed behind a two loss Alabama team even if they win the Big 12 Championship.
That is for another day and the Oklahoma Sooners are still in control of their own destiny going into Week 12 of the College Football regular season despite the loss to the Baylor Bears. It does make things a little more awkward than they could have been, but the Sooners know two wins will be enough to play in the Championship Game and give them at least one more chance to impress those picking the four teams to play out the National Championship.
Bedlam is coming up over Thanksgiving Weekend, but the Sooners first have to play the Iowa State Cyclones (6-4) who have virtually been eliminated from the Championship Game contention after the loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders last time out. This has been a season of underachievement for the Cyclones, but they are Bowl eligible, they are one win away from a fourth consecutive winning record under Head Coach Matt Campbell and the Cyclones have given the Sooners plenty to think about in recent seasons and a win will give them a chance of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game in Week 13.
Iowa State can't be dismissed as the only team who have beaten the Oklahoma State Cowboys this season and they have plenty of talented players that should be respected.
The Cyclones have not played badly Offensively and that is what is going to make them dangerous, especially if the Oklahoma Sooners are as poor as they were on the Offensive side of the ball in their defeat to the Baylor Bears. Iowa State are going to be able to establish the run and that is only going to make life simpler for Brock Purdy at Quarter Back.
I expect him to target Charlie Kolar as much as he can before the Tight End heads to the NFL and the Cyclones should be able to move the ball with consistent success in this one, especially if the Sooners Defensive Line continues to struggle up front.
However, the Cyclones have lost four times this season and that is largely down to the experienced Defensive unit failing to match the intensity they produced in 2020 to lead the team to a 9-3 record. In recent games the Cyclones have allowed teams to find a real balance Offensively and that always spells trouble for teams no matter what level of Football they are playing at.
Lincoln Riley will be looking for his Sooners team to bounce back Offensively after a stunningly poor performance in the defeat to the Bears which saw him switch up his Quarter Back a couple of times to try and spark a reaction. Caleb Williams is expected to start the game and he has been strong for much of the season, so the feeling is that the Quarter Back can have a better game in Week 12 than he managed the last time we saw him.
Caleb Williams will also benefit from being at home where the fans are going to want to get behind him and I do think his ability to scramble around and make plays will benefit him in this match up. The Sooners should be able to establish the run against the Iowa State Defensive Line which has been allowing 4.4 yards per carry over their last three games, while the Cyclones Secondary have allowed too many big plays.
Both teams are coming in off a loss so the focus should not be an issue, while the Cyclones have to be respected with the way they have performed as an underdog. However, they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a winning record and I do think the Oklahoma Sooners can get back on track in Norman.
Games between these schools have been competitive and I don't doubt that will be the case again, but Oklahoma's balance Offensively can provide the key to the win and they can cover this spread in a bid to try and impress the PlayOff Committee who have been anything but with the Sooners this season.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Clemson Tigers Pick: Their run as the dominant team in the ACC is very likely to be coming to a close at the end of this season, but the Clemson Tigers (7-3) can at least push their chances until the final week of the regular season. They are a couple of games behind the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-1) in the ACC Atlantic Division, but a win here and another loss for Wake Forest and NC State would see Clemson climb into the Championship Game against all odds.
It has been a very difficult season for the Tigers who did not anticipate the fall off from 2020 despite Trevor Lawrence being Drafted as the Number 1 Overall Pick in the NFL. They have to be feeling better about themselves after three straight wins, but injuries have not really helped the Tigers in 2021, although it may set them up for a big 2022.
No one will be giving up on this season though and that means the Tigers have to be ready for one more big effort and to then shift the pressure onto their rivals around them in Week 13. The public are not convinced, but the sharp money has been on Clemson with the spread moving a little further in their direction.
You can't dispute how Wake Forest have played this season and they may even have an outside shot of reaching the PlayOff if they can win out. It will need some support from other teams, but the Demon Deacons are Ranked in the top ten and they have shown plenty of Offensive firepower that makes them tough to write off.
That Offensive output has to be massively respected, but the Clemson Tigers Defensive unit have played their part for a team that was expected to challenge for the National Championship again. While the Demon Deacons have overachieved, this is a massive test for them on the Offensive side of the ball and it would mean there is a lot of pressure on them to perform much better Defensively than they have shown.
A question is whether the young, injury hit Tigers can really expose those Defensive vulnerabilities that Wake Forest have displayed- while it has been possible to run the ball with some huge gains against the Demon Deacons Defensive Line, the Clemson Offensive Line have not really opened holes as they would have expected and that battle in the trenches is going to be all important.
Justyn Ross is expected to miss out for the home team and that leaves Clemson really inexperienced in the Receiving corps, but DJ Uiagalelei can at least finish up at home with a strong performance after an underwhelming year. The Tigers will benefit from a younger Offensive unit taking to the field and they are facing a Secondary which has given up some big plays.
The key to the outcome of this game remains on the other side of the ball where the Tigers continue to trot out one of the best Defensive units in College Football. Clemson's Defensive Line continues to be incredibly stout against the run and they have thrived in getting the pass rush going and getting after the Quarter Back which will make it a tough day for the Demon Deacons to have the kind of Offensive successes they have become used to in the 2021 season.
Sam Hartman had almost 300 passing yards and 3 Touchdown passes last week in the win over the NC State Wolfpack, but he also threw 3 Interceptions and those extra possessions could be devastating against a team like Clemson. The Tigers may not have the same Offensive power as we have been used to, but the Demon Deacons have struggled for stops and I think that is why I want to back the home team to cover what is a wide spread on paper.
Clemson have dominated this Divisional rival in recent seasons, albeit with a much stronger team than the 2021 edition, but the public are firmly behind the overachieving road underdog. I think that is ignoring the tough match up in front of the Demon Deacons who have struggled Defensively themselves and I think the Tigers can put in a big effort to win this game by a good margin.
That may not be enough to eventually compete in the ACC Championship Game, but the Tigers can lay down a marker for what they can achieve in the weeks and seasons ahead with a big win over the Divisional leader.
Michigan Wolverines @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: It is very unlikely that there will be two teams heading to the College Football PlayOff from the Big Ten Conference, but things are still going to be shaken up over the last three weeks of the season. The regular season will come to a close after the top three in the Big Ten East having finished facing one another and determining which of the teams is set to play in the Championship Game.
The Michigan State Spartans and Ohio State Buckeyes are facing each other this week, but the Michigan Wolverines (9-1) can only control what is in front of them. The Buckeyes are a big favourite to beat the Spartans and, assuming that happens, it would mean the Wolverines are in control of their own destiny with two wins likely pushing them into the Big Ten Championship Game.
It has been some time since the Wolverines have played meaningful games in November, but the win over Penn State Nittany Lions means they have produced back to back wins since losing their sole game of the season to their rivals Michigan State. Michigan can ill-afford to overlook their opponent in Week 12 as that would effectively eliminate them from the PlayOff consideration, but they do look to be facing the Maryland Terrapins (5-5) at the right time.
Injuries have been piling up for the Terrapins who still need one more win to become Bowl eligible and who have lost five of their last six games. They fought pretty hard in Week 11, but the Terrapins were still beaten by 19 points on the road at the Michigan State Spartans and I do think the Michigan Wolverines are the better team despite the loss to their rivals.
The Maryland Terrapins have lost a couple more Receiving options ahead of this game and it would have been tough to move the ball against the Wolverines even if at full health. It all starts up front for the Wolverines who have a Defensive Line capable of dominating the line of scrimmage and forcing teams into third and long spots.
In recent games the Terrapins have continued to throw the ball with some success despite injuries in the Receiving areas, but this is a tough Secondary to play against. With a Defensive Line stopping the run with consistency, the Michigan pass rush has been able to pin back their ears and really get after the Quarter Back which has made it much easier for the Secondary to make big plays.
That should give the Wolverines a chance to pull away for a big win on the road and they have shown enough consistency Offensively to believe they will be able to do that. Cade McNamara has arguably been the best Quarter Back that Michigan have had under Head Coach Jim Harbaugh and I think he is going to have a very good game against the struggling Terrapins Secondary.
Blake Corum is expected to be ruled out, but Michigan should still be able to produce enough on the ground to keep the Terrapins honest and open things up for McNamara at Quarter Back.
Looking ahead could be a fatal mistake from Michigan, but I think they will be focused on Saturday as they finally have an important game to play in November. Since the upset to the Terrapins in 2014, Michigan have blown them out five times in a row including two years ago when these schools last played.
Michigan are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite, while Maryland have not covered in their last five as the underdog. Injuries are hurting a lot of teams at this stage of the season, but the Wolverines look better placed to deal with their absentees compared with Maryland and I will look for the road team to produce a big win.
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: After the Auburn Tigers were beaten, the Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1) would have to suffer a serious capitulation to not make it through to the SEC Championship Game. The team are still earning plenty of respect from the College Football PlayOff Committee, but another loss would be difficult for them to ignore and especially if that comes against either of their remaining two regular season opponents.
First up for the Crimson Tide is the final home game of the season against the Arkansas Razorbacks (7-3) and there will be a huge amount of respect for the job that Head Coach Sam Pittman is doing in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks only won three games in 2020, but they have more than doubled that and have secured a winning record for the first time since 2016.
Sam Pittman and his team should not be satisfied with that and they have three games remaining, assuming they will be selected for a Bowl Game after becoming eligible with their seven wins on the board. The Razorbacks need two wins to secure their most wins in a single season since 2011, while the chance to play spoiler has to be a motivation for a team who have won three in a row since losing their opening three Conference games.
A win would also mean the Razorbacks have an outside chance to win the SEC West, although a lot of things need to go their way to do that even if they can upset the Crimson Tide. No one associated with the team will be thinking of anything other than trying to upset their hosts in Tuscaloosa.
The Razorbacks don't really match up that well with the Alabama Defensive unit- the Crimson Tide have a Defensive Line which is very sure of themselves when it comes to stopping the run, while the Razorbacks really need to spark themselves on this side of the ball by being able to pound the rock on the ground.
Arkansas have continued to run the ball pretty well, but they were not able to score against the Georgia Bulldogs and I am not sure they are going to have a lot of success against the Crimson Tide on this side of the ball. Failing to be able to run the ball consistently will also mean KJ Jefferson has to deal with a vicious Alabama pass rush and that has been able to protect the Secondary. The Quarter Back has not really shown enough consistency throwing the ball to believe he can hurt Alabama over and over again in this one and I think the Razorbacks will have a hard time moving the ball throughout this game.
An opportunity for Arkansas to keep this game closer than some may expect will be determined by their own Defensive Line that has proven to be a stable part of this unit. They have been able to stop the run during the three game winning run and this Crimson Tide team have not been as strong in the rushing Offense as we have been used to seeing.
However, Bryce Young is playing at a really high level at the Quarter Back position and he has been very good at managing games. The fact he has 33 Touchdown passes with 3 Interceptions means he can do more than simply avoiding mistakes and Young should make some big plays against this Secondary, although being in third and long would see the Razorbacks come after him with some success.
Both have been pushed by the LSU Tigers and come away with narrow wins, but the Alabama Crimson Tide will have been preparing for this game for two weeks and I think that makes them very dangerous for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Blow outs in favour of the Crimson Tide have been common in the last four years between these schools and I do think they will want to build some momentum heading towards the expected massive showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game.
Trends favour both teams, but Arkansas are just 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five SEC games and I think the Crimson Tide can produce a statement win that covers a huge spread.
MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Utah Utes - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 10 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Week 11: 5-4, + 0.73 Units (9 Units Staked, + 8.11% Yield)
Week 10: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 9: 5-3, + 1.25 Units (8 Units Staked, + 15.63% Yield)
Week 8: 3-5, - 2.57 Units (8 Units Staked, - 32.13% Yield)
Week 7: 5-4, + 0.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.56% Yield)
Week 6: 3-3, - 0.27 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)
Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)
Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)
Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)
2021 Season: 51-45-1, + 0.96 Units (97 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment