The season is moving at a rapid rate and hitting Thanksgiving Day is usually a strong turning point towards the home stretch towards the PlayOffs.
Week 12 is also one in which I am looking to bounce back after three rotten weeks of NFL Picks, but I will add to this thread before the Sunday games.
For now you can read my thoughts on the Thanksgiving Day games to be played.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: Despite some rumours of recent years, the Detroit Lions (0-9-1) are still one of the two teams that have a permanent place playing on Thanksgiving Day and they will once again get the day underway with a game at home. There have been suggestions the NFL may remove the honour that has been given to the Lions and another season in which they are struggling massively does not really do much for those who want to stick with tradition.
The Lions are winless in 2021, but at least they won't be the first team to finish a regular season with a 0-17 record having earned a tie at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
They will be hosting a Divisional rival in Week 12 of the 2021 season with the Chicago Bears (3-7) once again being given the call to head into Mo-Town to take on the Detroit Lions. Two seasons ago, the Bears narrowly won here thanks to a late Touchdown to take the lead and they are favoured to win here despite some difficulties in the preparation.
Injuries are not helping the Bears who have lost Justin Fields at Quarter Back and will also be missing Khalil Mack on the Defensive side of the ball. Even without Mack, the Bears Defensive unit did as much as they could against the Baltimore Ravens, but the Offense struggled yet again and it sounds like Head Coach Matt Nagy will be fired before completing the season.
With those rumours rampant enough that the Head Coach was asked about them, I do wonder if the Bears will be focused even with this game being played on National television on a Holiday. Failing to be ready to compete is going to end with another defeat for the Bears and the season will not be able to end quickly enough, but they do match up well with the Detroit Lions.
Having a veteran at backup Quarter Back will be a big help for the Chicago Bears and Andy Dalton should be able to have a strong outing, even if Allen Robinson is not able to go. The Chicago Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection, but the Lions have generated very little pressure up front in recent games and that should mean Andy Dalton has all of the time he needs to throw against this Secondary.
The Quarter Back should be aided by David Montgomery who scored two Touchdowns against the Detroit Lions earlier this season and who scored the winning Touchdown when these teams met on Thanksgiving Day in 2019. Chicago's Offensive Line may have had some issues in pass protection, but they have opened up some decent running lanes and that should give David Montgomery every chance to rip off some big gains against this struggling Detroit Defensive Line.
Third and manageable spots can only bode well for Andy Dalton and I do think the Bears will have every chance of moving the chains and especially if they know the Head Coach is going to be fired whether they win or lose. That should provide enough motivation for the Bears, rather than a situation where the players want to make sure the Head Coach is thrown under the bus, and I do think a veteran presence at Quarter Back is important for the Chicago Bears after back to back close defeats.
Motivation is the one aspect that raises doubts, but they played well Defensively in the Week 11 defeat to Baltimore and their backup Quarter Back. The Bears could be up against another backup behind Center in this Thanksgiving game too if Jared Goff is not able to go for the Lions, but it may actually not be the worst thing for Chicago if they are facing someone that was banged up enough to miss out playing just a few days ago.
Detroit will be encouraged by the way they have been able to run the ball and I do think they are going to lean on D'Andre Swift who has been able to rip off some big gains on the ground. He had a decent game against the Cleveland Browns despite that team being one that can close on the run, and even the improved performance of the Chicago Defensive Line in recent games may not be enough to clamp down on the Running Back.
Controlling the clock and the field position is going to be hugely important for the Lions and keeping Jared Goff or Tim Boyle in third and manageable spots is vitally important. Like the Bears, the Offensive Line has not been as strong in pass protection as they have in opening up the run, but the Chicago Defensive Line do have the kind of players that can breakthrough the Line and get after the Quarter Back if Detroit need time for their running routes to develop.
It would not be a surprise if a big play from the Chicago Defensive Line makes the difference between the teams on the day and I think the Bears can be backed here.
Detroit are struggling Offensively and, at best, they are going to have a banged up Quarter Back who is going to be facing a pass rush pressure in his face. Both teams should have success running the ball, but the Bears Defensive Line may be the best unit on the field in this one and they can make enough plays to give their team the possessions to win and cover.
The rumours about Matt Nagy have to have an impact on the way this game is played, but the players may already know the Head Coach is gone and losing in front of the nation to a winless team would be embarrassing. That may focus the Bears who won here on Thanksgiving Day two seasons ago and Chicago are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in the series between these NFC North rivals.
There are some terrible trends opposing both teams, but Chicago are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against a team with a losing record and I will look for them to win and cover in the first of three Thanksgiving Day games.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: This may be a non-Conference game, but it is Thanksgiving Day and playing well on this day is going to be a big motivation for the players that are able to take to the field. The Dallas Cowboys (7-3) dropped their Week 11 game at the Kansas City Chiefs, but they still have a healthy lead in the NFC East and look the favourite to win the Division with the other three teams all holding losing records.
That defeat to the Chiefs hurt the Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) who have dropped to the bottom of the AFC West with three losses in a row behind them. There were so many positives when the Raiders were three games above 0.500, but this has been a difficult season for them off the field with Jon Gruden fired over emails he sent before he took over as Head Coach here and Henry Ruggs released and looking like he will be facing multiple years in jail after a car crash that left a victim dead.
It certainly hasn't helped the Raiders concentrate on their Football and the short week means little time to prepare for this game. The Raiders were also beaten here on Thanksgiving Day in 2013 and they are going to have to be a lot better all around if they are going to beat a Dallas team that have been really strong at home.
Dallas hold a 4-1 record at home in 2021, although things are not going as smoothly as Mike McCarthy will have been hoping. Injuries and Covid-19 issues have been a problem for Dallas and they could be without their top two Receivers for this one, while Dan Quinn's Defensive unit have just fallen away from the kind of high standards they were setting earlier this season.
Dak Prescott did not play as well as he would have liked in the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but he has largely been in top form at Quarter Back and I do think the Cowboys can bounce back with Prescott leading the way. I do think he will be looking to lean on his running game a little more in this one with the likes of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb potentially sitting, although Lamb looks to be on the right path to playing in this one despite suffering a concussion in Week 11.
Even then, Dallas will look for their powerful Offensive Line to get back to basics and set the team up Offensively by controlling the clock on the ground. Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard give the Cowboys a strong one-two punch out of the backfield and I think they will pick up from where Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati Bengals left off last week.
For large parts the Las Vegas Defensive unit have played well, but they have not been given a lot of support from the Offensive side of the team. Short fields being given up through turnovers, or too many three and outs has meant the Raiders Defense have spent too much time on the field and eventually worn down in their losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals in their last couple of games.
If the Raiders Defensive Line can make some plays against the run, they will feel they can get too Dak Prescott who may have to rely on Receivers with whom he does not have the same chemistry as those who are absent. It can lead to stalled drives or settling for Field Goals and that should mean the Raiders have a chance to at least keep this close even if they cannot win outright.
The three losses in a row will have dented the confidence of the road team and Derek Carr is not playing at a very good level right now. He is not being helped by the players around him that have been unable to stretch the field as the Raiders would have liked and that has just closed the space around the Receivers that Derek Carr prefers to target, most notably Darren Waller.
Derek Carr can not afford to hold the ball for too long to set routes develop as he faces up to the Dallas Defensive Line that have generated a really effective pass rush in recent games. Micah Parsons is coming into his own and the Raiders could face some pressure if they are left in third and long spots, although Josh Jacobs is set to have one of his better games of the season.
Injury has slowed down Jacobs at Running Back, but he will be operating behind an Offensive Line which has helped the Raiders pick up some solid gains on the ground in terms of yards per carry. Being in large deficits have forced Las Vegas to get away from the run, but Josh Jacobs should be able to move the ball on the ground in the early part of this game and that should ease the pressure on Derek Carr at Quarter Back.
He will still need to make plays, but operating out of third and manageable is a big difference than third and very long and I expect Carr to have a decent game too. The ball hawking Dallas Secondary will have to be respected, but I do think the Raiders can establish the run and that will give them a chance to move the ball with relative consistency.
The Cowboys have played well off a straight up loss and have covered the last four times in that situation, while they have been very good at home and as the home favourite. They are capable of taking a game away with their ability to create turnovers and with an Offensive unit that can pile up some big numbers, but the Raiders have a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five as the road underdog.
Add in the short week which may leave the Cowboys without a couple of key players and I think there is going to be enough from the Las Vegas Raiders to keep this one close even if they are unable to avoid a fourth defeat in a row.
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The last six weeks have been a difficult time for the Buffalo Bills (6-4) who have lost three of their last five games, including a blowout loss to the Indianapolis Colts last time out. A big game is on deck for the Bills, but they can't overlook this Thanksgiving Day game after losing the lead in the AFC East to the New England Patriots and I do expect to see a focused performance from the road team.
Another team looking to bounce back from recent setbacks is the New Orleans Saints (5-5) who have dropped three games in succession and fallen a little further behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. Those three consecutive losses have also pushed the Saints down the overall standings and the Wild Card berths may be beyond them if they cannot begin to turn things around soon.
New Orleans will be back in action next Thursday Night, but injuries are piling up with Alvin Kamara set to miss out again. Mark Ingram may also be missing for the Saints and they may struggle to get the run going into this game despite the Buffalo Bills giving up a huge amount of yards to Colts Running Back Jonathan Taylor in Week 11.
In the main part, the Buffalo Defensive Line have been pretty good at clamping down on the run and I do think the absence of Alvin Kamara hurts the New Orleans Saints. Sean McDermott is a solid Head Coach and even in the short week I imagine he is going to be looking for the Buffalo Bills to force Trevor Siemian to beat them through the air.
The backup Quarter Back has been well protected, but Trevor Siemian has had difficulty in finding consistency throwing the ball down the field with the Saints continuing to miss the presence of Michael Thomas. New Orleans have had some good performances from the Receivers that are available, but they are inconsistent performers and this Buffalo Secondary should be capable of making enough plays to ensure their team are in a position to bounce back from the embarrassing loss to the Colts.
If the Bills can set up some shorter fields for their Offensive unit, I do think they are going to be capable of pulling clear and covering this spread. They are a big road favourite and the public look to be behind Buffalo, which is never a great position to want to be in, but the Bills should be capable of showing they are much better than their performance in Week 11 and try and build some momentum before the Week 13 meeting with the New England Patriots.
Josh Allen did not play well and has admitted that he cannot continue to be as guilty in hurting his team with turnovers as he has been. The Quarter Back has not played with the consistency he produced last season, but Josh Allen can be as dangerous with his legs as he can be with his arm and I also think the Dome conditions in New Orleans will suit this entire Buffalo Offensive unit down to the ground.
The Buffalo Offensive Line has been able to make plays on the ground, but it looks like being a much tougher task against the New Orleans Defensive Line. However, Philadelphia were able to make some really strong gains with their rushing Offense in Week 11 and I do think Buffalo have been able to run the ball well enough to at least get in front of the chains and open up the playbook for Josh Allen.
There are some solid Receiving options in the Buffalo rotation and getting in front of the chains will give Josh Allen a chance of making sure he is hitting the likes of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox down the field. New Orleans are a talented team, but they are one that can give up some significant plays through the air and I do think Josh Allen can out-duel Trevor Siemian in leading his team to an important win to try and get back on track.
New Orleans will hope their Defensive Line can clamp down on the run and put them in a position to unleash the pass rush towards Josh Allen. Mistakes have occurred when Allen has felt pressure or been forced to try and do too much, and that may be the best way for the Saints to keep this close.
However, they are not the same team with Trevor Siemian at Quarter Back and he is just as likely to make an errant throw or two that gives the Bills a chance to pull clear and cover this spread.
Buffalo are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four following a loss, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five following a blowout loss at home. The Bills are also 7-3 against the spread in their last ten road games and I think they will really enjoy the conditions indoors compared with playing in the outdoors.
Sean Payton has led New Orleans to an 8-2 record against the spread in their last ten as the home underdog, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five off a loss. That one loss against the spread in that time occurred in Week 11 and I think the Buffalo Bills can find a way to win this one by at least a Touchdown and then take the extra time to prepare for a big game with the New England Patriots.
I expect the Bills to show off their power behind both the Offensive and Defensive unit in this one and I will look for them to cover on the road.
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: We may be past the halfway point of the regular season, but even being two games below 0.500 has not dented the ambitions of the Atlanta Falcons (4-6). Teams in the NFC have struggled for consistency and there is still every chance that the Falcons can right their wobbling ship and get back into contention for Wild Card spots in the Conference.
That should keep them focused after back to back embarrassing losses to the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots, while the Atlanta Falcons have had a little more time to prepare for this Week 12 game. They do have a very big game coming up against Divisional rivals the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Falcons have to win this game to move back alongside the likes of the New Orleans Saints in the Conference.
As poor as the last couple of outings have been for the Atlanta Falcons, they are facing the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) who have lost two in a row and who look like they have are having some real struggles from an Offensive point of view. They did upset the Buffalo Bills in a Defensive encounter, but the Jaguars have been hit hard by injuries on the Offensive side of the ball and I think that may show up here.
Much depends on James Robinson and whether he can establish the run, but that has not been something that has been very easy to do against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons Defensive Line have stepped up their level of play and they did not play badly on this side of the ball in the blow out loss to the New England Patriots.
Trevor Lawrence should have some spaces to exploit in the Secondary, but he has not really played as well as the Jaguars would have liked in recent weeks. He has not been helped by the lack of top Receiving options and injuries have hurt the Jaguars in the passing game and I do think Trevor Lawrence is still a work in progress, which should give the Atlanta Falcons an opportunity to get back to winning ways.
A struggling passing game has been a major problem for the Atlanta Falcons as Matt Ryan has been given very little time by his Offensive Line and the absence of Calvin Ridley has been a blow for the team. It doesn't help that the Falcons have struggled to open up running lanes and left Ryan in third and long spots, but there have also been suggestions that the Falcons have been predictable with their play.
You have to think the extra preparation time will allow the Falcons to put some creases into their Offensive output, while Cordarrelle Patterson should be able to play to give Matt Ryan a solid safety valve to rely upon. His return should also mean Atlanta have a little more success running the ball and it should be key to the outcome of the game with Ryan likely to have a bounce back game with extra preparation time to get the Atlanta Falcons back on track.
They are not an easy team to trust, but the Falcons are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen games against a team with a losing record and I think they can win on the road at a struggling Jacksonville team.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: All four teams in the AFC North have a winning record and all will believe they can earn a Wild Card spot in the Conference at the very least. The Division is up for grabs over the coming weeks and so every one of the Divisional games remaining is going to be very important and games that will mean more than most.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) have failed to win either of their last two games and that has seen them fall off the pace being set, while the Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) returned from their Bye Week and ended a run of back to back losses. They were big winners over the Las Vegas Raiders to get back on track and the Bengals already hold a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers this season.
Earning another won't be easy, but they look like they could match up well with the Steelers who have been struggling on both sides of the ball. Some of the Defensive injuries have not helped Pittsburgh, but they could be back at full strength on that side of the ball ahead of this game and that is very important for them.
The Defensive Line have just had some issues stopping the run and I do think Joe Mixon is going to show off some of the talent that had him compared with Le'Veon Bell when the latter was with the Steelers. Joe Mixon should be able to keep the Bengals in front of the chains in this one and that should make things a little easier for Joe Burrow.
The Quarter Back has the talent and the supporting cast to expose some of the Pittsburgh issues in the Secondary, but running the ball means Joe Burrow will not have to hold onto the ball for too long. That is all important to keep the Pittsburgh pass rush from getting on top of him and it should mean Cincinnati are in a position to keep the ball moving and hurt a Steelers Defensive unit that has given up plenty of yards in their loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11.
It might not need to be a game in which the Bengals need to score too many points though and that is because the Steelers are still having issues with their own Offensive play. Ben Roethlisberger has not looked like himself and I am not sure he will be playing with Pittsburgh in 2022, while the Steelers Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection as well as run blocking.
Big Ben did have some successes throwing the ball last week, but he will be put under pressure by the Bengals pass rush and I think that is going to be a key to the outcome of this Divisional game.
The Bengals Secondary have been hurt by some big plays in recent games, but Pittsburgh have been guilty of throwing the ball in front of the Defensive units they have been facing and I think the Cincinnati team can beat Pittsburgh for a second time this season.
However, I am not sure the Bengals will blow the Steelers away and it has to be remembered that they earned fewer yards than Pittsburgh in the road win earlier this season. Beating the same Divisional opponent twice in a year is very difficult and I do think the Steelers can make enough plays on both sides of the ball to at least keep this one relatively close.
Cincinnati are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the home favourite, while Pittsburgh are 19-7-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven as the road underdog.
The Steelers have a strong record in Cincinnati too and I think getting more than a Field Goal start with a team that will have Defensive reinforcements should be enough on the spread.
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Two teams from opposing Conferences will meet over Thanksgiving Weekend with every belief that they can earn a PlayOff spot at the end of this season. It may be surprising when note both have losing records, but the Carolina Panthers (5-6) and Miami Dolphins (4-7) will be looking to build some momentum before entering late Bye Weeks.
The Panthers were beaten by the Washington Football Team in Week 11 in Cam Newton's first start at Quarter Back having returned to the team that Drafted him. He has taken over from Sam Darnold as the starter, but that loss also means Carolina have lost the last nine games in which Cam Newton has started at Quarter Back.
This is a chance to end that run, but they are facing a Miami Dolphins team that have won back to back games and who look like they might have the push that will take them back into PlayOff contention. Games coming up give the Dolphins the chance to do that, but this looks like it could be a really difficult match up for them.
While the Carolina Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run of late, the Miami Dolphins have not really been able to open many holes for Myles Gaskin and even the performance against the New York Jets looks like being an exception to the rule. The Miami Offensive Line have been struggling in all aspects of their play for some time and I am not sure they are going to be able to exploit the issues the Panthers have had and they do not match up well with their opponent.
Tua Tagovailoa has been playing well over the last couple of games at Quarter Back, but he will be throwing into a strong Carolina Secondary. While I expect him to make some good throws, Tagovailoa is also operating behind an Offensive Line which has not played well in pass protection and who will be facing a pretty solid Carolina pass rush.
I expect those pass rushers to give Tua Tagovailoa some issues when it comes to waiting for his Receivers to get down the field and it is a key part of the reason I feel the Carolina Panthers will win this game on the road.
The Panthers do match up well with the Dolphins on the other side of the ball too and the return of Christian McCaffrey is very important for Carolina. For much of the season, Miami have struggled to stop the run and I do think McCaffrey and Cam Newton can use their legs to keep the Panthers in front of the chains and that should make it possible for Carolina to move the ball down the field and score the points they need to win here.
Cam Newton will have to be aware of the strength of the Miami Secondary, but he should have time to make his throws with the way his Offensive Line have been playing. An ability to scramble with the ball also helps and I think the Panthers can get the better of this non-Conference opponent.
Carolina are 10-2 against the spread in their last twelve road games and can put in a full effort knowing they will be entering their Bye Week following this game.
Brian Flores has Coached Miami well and his team are always in games even when set as the underdog, especially at home, but I do think this is not a good match up for the Dolphins on either side of the ball. I think the Carolina pass rush may be the key factor in the outcome of the game and I think they can rattle Tua Tagovailoa, while the Panthers are expected to control the clock with their rushing Offense and that can lead to a win for the road favourite here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Reaching the PlayOffs is the bare minimum that both of these teams will have been expecting of themselves before the season began, but only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) are playing up to the level they would have been hoping. They snapped a two game losing run with a win over the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, although there is still plenty for the Buccaneers to play for as they look to finish with the top Seed in the NFC.
They are going to have to fight for that right through to the final week of the regular season with the way things are looking, but the Buccaneers will have to prove themselves on the road if they are going to earn the top Seed. Tampa Bay have simply not been as good on the road in 2021 and both Bruce Arians and Tom Brady have noted that in recent weeks.
Now they head back out on the road to take on the Indianapolis Colts (6-5) who have moved back above 0.500 thanks to a blow out win over the Buffalo Bills. Even then, the Colts would not hold a PlayOff spot if the season ended now and they are still 2 games behind the injury hit Tennessee Titans in the AFC South having lost both games to their Divisional rival.
Indianapolis blew out the Buffalo Bills thanks to Jonathan Taylor who scored five Touchdowns alone in Week 11 with a dominant performance on the ground the key. The Colts have an Offensive Line that feel they can bully any opponent they face, but it will still be a big challenge for them to impose themselves on the Tampa Bay Defensive Line who have prided themselves on being able to stop the run.
I am not sure they will be able to clamp down on Taylor and the Colts totally, but the Buccaneers may dare Carson Wentz to try and beat them through the air and it is something that could give them the edge in the contest if they can make the Colts rely on the pass. Carson Wentz has not played badly in recent weeks, but he has not been able to put together big passing days, while Wentz is never far away from making a big mistake which can be costly for his team.
The Offensive Line has at least protected Carson Wentz of late, but the Buccaneers Secondary is looking a little healthier and this side of the ball will come down to the line of scrimmage. Both teams will feel they can win there and it will certainly be the area from which Tampa Bay can find a big win if they can find a way to limit the damage Jonathan Taylor is able to do.
So far this season we have yet to see Tampa Bay at their best on the road, but this looks a good chance for Tom Brady and the Offensive unit to have a solid outing. Bruce Arians and the Buccaneers prefer the pass to the run, but I think they will have a reasonable balance in this game which gives the Super Bowl Champions an opportunity to win an important game to match the Green Bay Buccaneers record for the season.
The Colts Defensive Line have allowed some big plays on the ground, but rushing the ball is something the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can move away from. Leonard Fournette has played well when he has been given the ball, but Tom Brady has the Receiving options to expose some of the Indianapolis Secondary who have allowed over 250 passing yards per game in their last three games.
Tampa Bay have really protected Tom Brady well and I think the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can pick up some big gains through the air which will give the Buccaneers every chance of scoring enough points to win this non-Conference game. Rob Gronkowski gives Tom Brady another valuable Receiving option and I think Tampa Bay can finally produce a solid road performance to get into a position to win this game.
The Buccaneers have not covered in their last six as the road favourite, but Indianapolis are 1-6 against the spread as the home underdog.
The Colts are coming in off a big win, but that may be tough to back up with the match up in front of them and I will look for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to have too much Offensive firepower for Indianapolis to stick with.
It feels like the sharps are behind the road team here and I want to be on their side and against the public who are sticking with the home underdog.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: Joe Judge might be given some time to turn things around for the New York Giants (3-7), but the Head Coach has heard the frustrations of the fans. That is based around some of the Offensive play-calling that Jason Garrett had been offering and the former Dallas Cowboys Head Coach has been relieved of his role as Offensive Co-Ordinator at the Giants.
The fans will be arriving for this Divisional game hoping to see some improvement from the Giants on that side of the ball, even though they are playing on a short week having been blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. The Giants are still in contention for a Wild Card spot if they can turn their form around and that will need to begin here against their NFC East rivals.
The Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) look to be rolling with three wins from four games and they will be getting excited when seeing how the Dallas Cowboys are playing at the moment. A win for the Eagles will have the fans believing they can push for a Wild Card spot in the NFC at the very least and they are playing with some real confidence at the moment.
Both of these teams will actually look to attack the other in very similar ways- the Offensive Lines have been playing really well and helping the Eagles and the Giants establish the run. Both are going up against Defensive Lines that have given up some big plays on the ground so you have to imagine the likes of Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard and Saquon Barkley all to have big games.
Running the ball should open things up for the two Quarter Backs too and both Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones are going to be throwing into a Secondary which has struggled to make plays. Out of the two, I think Jones is the more confident passer and he certainly has some big time Receiving weapons compared with Hurts and the Eagles, but this does feel like a game in which both teams will move the ball and it could easily come down to which of the two teams has the ball last to determine a winner.
Daniel Jones has struggled at times with the pass protection that has been offered to him, but he may benefit from the fact that the Eagles have not been able to generate much of a pass rush of late. With Barkley likely to be able to establish the run, I think Jones will have a bit more time to throw the ball down the field, while losing Jason Garrett's vanilla play-calling can only benefit the Quarter Back.
I think that is important for the New York Giants and they can certainly make enough plays to make use of the amount of points that are being given to them. Stopping the Philadelphia Eagles will not be easy considering the form they have been showing of late, but a close, competitive game means getting more than a key number of points is crucial.
Games between these NFC East rivals do tend to be competitive and that is underlined by the fact that the underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series.
The Giants are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six against Divisional opponents.
This feels like it will be a game that comes down to the final touches and I will look for the New York Giants to keep this close with their ability to match up well with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: None of the teams in the AFC West have a losing record and some of that has to be down to the way each have been performing against opponents from the NFC East. It does mean that every Divisional game increases in importance and especially as we get into Week 12 of the regular season and with all four teams chasing a Divisional crown as well as a potential Wild Card spot in the PlayOff.
The Denver Broncos (5-5) had won two in a row, but they were beaten by the Philadelphia Eagles last time out and that has dropped them back into 0.500 for the season. They are hosting the Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) who had lost three of their previous four games, but rallied late in their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and they are half a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs at the top of the Division.
The AFC is tightly bunched up and so it is very important to try and build some momentum as we finish up the November schedule and get into the home run towards the post-season. There is an extra game on the regular season schedule in 2021, but that is not going to have a major impact on the focus of teams and both the Broncos and Chargers will be desperate to post a win on Sunday.
It is the Los Angeles Chargers who will enter the game as a narrow favourite and I certainly think they are playing well enough to get the better of the Denver Broncos who have a losing record when facing AFC opponents. Beating up on the NFC has proved to be the key for the Broncos, but Teddy Bridgewater and company are not playing with consistency and Vic Fangio has to be feeling the Head Coach seat warming up underneath him.
Teddy Bridgewater is going to be operating behind a banged up Offensive Line and it has not been as easy running the ball against the Chargers Defensive Line in recent games as it has been for much of the season. That may see the Los Angeles Chargers looking to clamp down up front and force Bridgewater to find the time to try and beat them down the field, but that will be an issue behind this Offensive Line if the Chargers continue to generate a solid pass rush.
The veteran Quarter Back has largely avoided mistakes, but the Broncos continue to struggle without a consistent player in this position since Peyton Manning retired. Rumours suggest they will get a massive upgrade in the spot next season, but for now the Broncos may have issues moving the ball with any consistency and that should give Justin Herbert and the Chargers every chance of winning this Divisional game on the road.
Unlike the Chargers Defensive Line, Denver have begun to wear down up front and I do think the road team will be able to move the ball on the ground to keep Justin Herbert in third and manageable spots. Austin Ekeler is as big a threat catching the ball out of the backfield and taking short passes a considerable distance down the field, and I do think that helps the Quarter Back who has some big time Receiving options to target when he drops back to throw down the field.
Being able to establish the run either on the ground or with short passes should mean Herbert does not need to hold the ball for too long. That should also calm the Denver pass rush and it should open up the passing lanes for Mike Williams and Keenan Allen who can win their battles on the outside against the Defensive Backs.
The Chargers do not have the best recent record at Mile High, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five on the road as the favourite. They have also covered in their last five against teams from the same Division, although the Broncos will be strong coming out of the Bye and that has to be respected.
Denver have not played well against the AFC though and he has failed to cover in any of his last four in that spot and I will look for the Chargers to win and cover here.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Two of the leading teams in the NFC are meeting in Week 12 and this could have serious ramifications for the Number 1 Seed in January. There is only one team that will be receiving a Bye this season and these two teams will both believe they can earn that spot.
The Los Angeles Rams (7-3) are coming out of a Bye Week after losses in back to back games and Sean McVay has spoken about the benefit of having that time to re-evaluate and get back to basics. Matthew Stafford has been struggling with some issues with his back, but the Quarter Back should be ready to go in this one and he has been practicing all week.
He certainly looks to be in better shape than Aaron Rodgers who will be starting for the Green Bay Packers (8-3) and looking to drag the team back from a disappointing loss to Divisional rivals the Minnesota Vikings. Aaron Rodgers has admitted that his toe is causing plenty of discomfort and the Green Bay Packers are down a couple of Offensive Linemen that could spell trouble against the Los Angeles Rams.
Revenge will be on the mind of the latter after losing in the PlayOff at this Stadium back in January, and they are certainly looking healthier on the Defensive Line which has to benefit the Rams. Aaron Donald was not in peak shape back in January, but he looks strong again and the Los Angeles Rams will be looking to get after Aaron Rodgers who may not be able to scramble away from pressure in the same way he has been able to do in his career.
The Packers will look to ease the pass rush by running the ball, but establishing the run against the Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line is a huge challenge for any team in the NFL. AJ Dillon may have some decent gains, but the banged up Offensive Line is going to be under pressure and I think the Rams can clamp down on the Green Bay Packers.
Los Angeles are all in when it comes to the Super Bowl, and their Defensive unit has played well even in the back to back losses suffered. The key for the Rams is seeing how they can cope without Robert Woods who has been lost for the season, although the Bye Week has given Los Angeles the chance to get Odell Beckham Jr up to speed.
Matthew Stafford's main target will remain Cooper Kuup and the Green Bay Packers may have some difficulty stopping the Rams, especially if they play as they did last week in the defeat to the Minnesota Vikings. The quick passing game can be very dangerous when Stafford is at his best, and it also opens things up on the ground for the Rams.
Injuries in the Secondary could leave Green Bay exposed and I do think the Los Angeles Rams can bounce back with the extra preparation time that will have been afforded to Sean McVay and his Coaching staff.
Revenge is motivation enough, but the Rams are also 10-3-1 against the spread in their last fourteen off a loss. The Packers are another team who regularly bounce from losses with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back, but they are surprisingly 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog and I think this is a good time for the Rams to be visiting town.
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Football Team Pick: When the Monday Night Football selections were made back in April, the feeling would have been that this would be an important game in Week 12 of the regular season. Both the Washington Football Team (4-6) and the Seattle Seahawks (3-7) are used to playing Football in January, but the season has been a difficult one for both.
However, there is an expanded PlayOff this season and that means a team that finishes 8-9 will have a chance of earning a spot in the post-season come January. The pressure is on both of these teams though with their losing records and that makes it a very important Monday Night Football game for both Washington and Seattle.
Injuries have not really helped either team and both have become used to playing second string Quarter Backs this season. At least the Seahawks have Russell Wilson back in the line up, but the veteran has not looked himself and there are rumours that he is no longer happy playing with the Seahawks and under Pete Carroll as Head Coach.
The Seahawks have lost back to back games, while the Washington Football team have won back to back games and the momentum is with the home team. Travelling across the country is not ideal for Seattle who have other players that have been banged up, but Russell Wilson has to be feeling a little better with a couple of games under his belt and I do think the Quarter Back will have a much better outing than what we have seen from him since his return from an injury.
Chris Carson is out, but Alex Collins is capable of running the ball and I do think he can help Seattle establish the run in this one. With injuries on the Washington Defensive Line, I do think establishing the run will just offer Russell Wilson a touch more time to find the likes of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf down the field.
He has not been at his best, but Russell Wilson is not someone that has been used to Quarter Backing teams that are on the brink of losing three games in a row.
Seattle will have some drives stalling on current form, but the Defensive unit have at least stepped up their play and that is important in keeping the Seattle Seahawks in games. They have really found a way to clamp down on the run in recent games and I do think they can get the better of the Washington Offensive Line which has not been able to open too many big holes up front.
Antonio Gibson will make some plays, but the Seahawks can at least force the Football Team to throw the ball from third and long spots and that is an issue for the home team considering the pass protection breakdowns they have had in recent weeks. Taylor Heinicke has shown he is a capable backup, but this is a Quarter Back that has struggled for consistency throwing the ball and I am not sure being in third and long is the best spot for him to try and expose the Seattle Secondary.
I expect Taylor Heinicke to have some success, especially as Seattle have struggled to generate a strong pass rush, but moving the ball from obvious passing down and distance is never easy.
I do worry about the spot with Seattle possibly playing spoiler for rivals San Francisco next week, while the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson rumours are of concern too. It may see the Seahawks self-combust over the remainder of the 2021 season, but they can still get back into PlayOff contention with a win here and next week and I think Wilson will want to show he is far from done after back to back defeats.
Seattle have a strong record against the spread coming off a straight up loss, while they have a much stronger record on Monday Night Football than the Washington Football Team. This is effectively a pick 'em game and I think the run will be more effective for Seattle that can lead them to an important victory on the day.
MY PICKS: Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Las Vegas Raiders + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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