I will have a much fuller Week 10 post for the NFL Picks, but you can read my Week 9 selections below.
I will update season totals in that next week post too.
Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: This has been a strong start to the 2021 season for the Dallas Cowboys (6-1) who managed to keep the wins coming despite going into Sunday Night Football in Week 8 with a backup Quarter Back. Cooper Rush made the big plays to beat the Minnesota Vikings, but the Cowboys will have Dak Prescott back in the line up in Week 9 and the Cowboys have a good lead in the weak NFC East.
No one will want to get too carried away as we have yet to reach the halfway mark for the 2021 season, but the Dallas Cowboys have to be looking upwards and trying to secure the best Seeding possible in the PlayOff. There is work to do for the Cowboys to work their way into the post-season, but everything they have done to this point suggests they are capable of doing that.
This is a non-Conference game and that can take some of the focus away from the players, but the Dallas Cowboys might benefit from facing a Denver Broncos (4-4) team that have traded away some key players. You do have to wonder if the Broncos believe they can work into contention in the AFC West, but they did snap their four game losing run in Week 8 with a win over the Washington Football Team.
It has been a tough period for the Denver Broncos who have been dealing with injuries and they have struggled to find much balance Offensively. Teddy Bridgewater is proving himself to be little more than a stop-gap for a Broncos team that have struggled for Quarter Back play ever since Peyton Manning retired with the Super Bowl trophy in his hands.
The Broncos need to find a way to establish the run, but it has been an issue for them in recent games and this Dallas Cowboys Defensive unit headed up by Dan Quinn have made improvements in leaps and bounds this season. The Defensive Line did a good job in containing Dalvin Cook in Week 8 and they should feel they can win in the trenches and force the Denver Broncos to try and move the ball in third and long spots.
Teddy Bridgewater has forced throws in recent weeks and that has led to more turnovers, never a good thing for a Quarter Back that is known to be a game manager. While his Denver Receivers can have some success against an aggressive Cowboys Secondary, Teddy Bridgewater has to be careful that he doesn't push too hard against a ball-hawking team that will be looking to set their Offensive unit up in short field situations.
The Denver Offensive Line has not really protected their Quarter Back as well as they would have liked either and an improving Dallas pass rush should be able to at least rattle Bridgewater in the backfield.
Turning the ball over will give Dallas every chance of covering what is a very big spread, and especially with the power of the Offensive unit that have proven to be tough to stop for every opponent they have faced. With Dak Prescott back in the line up, Dallas should once again have considerable balance and the play-calling has been good enough to keep the team in a position to move the ball and up and down the field.
It all starts behind a powerful Offensive Line and in recent games the Denver Defensive Line has just struggled to stop teams powering through them. Both Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard can have a big game in this one and that opens up all options for the Dallas Cowboys as they look to hit the big plays down the field.
Dak Prescott has been well protected and has largely contained his mistakes, while playing at a level that has made everyone forget the very serious injury he picked up last season. His Receivers are going to find some holes to exploit in the Denver Secondary and I think that will lead to the Cowboys moving the ball with consistency and piling up the points.
The Broncos are now 1-4 against the spread in their last five games when playing a team with a winning record. They have to face a Dallas team that has covered in their last five home games and who have covered in each of their last four opponents when favoured to win.
I think the trading away of Von Miller suggests the Denver Broncos are looking ahead to the 2022 season already, but this would have been a very difficult game with or without the All-Star. It is a very big spread, but the Dallas Cowboys are more than capable of covering and I think they can score plenty of points on their way to doing so.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: An important defeat in Week 8 has put the Atlanta Falcons (3-4) in a tough position and Arthur Brown is wondering if they have the consistency to challenge for a PlayOff spot. It looks unlikely for the Head Coach in his first season with the Atlanta Falcons, but his team will be looking to bounce back from the home loss to the Carolina Panthers when taking on another NFC South opponent.
The New Orleans Saints (5-2) have dominated the NFC South in recent seasons and they are coming in off a huge win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which puts them just half a game behind the Super Bowl Champions. The win over the Buccaneers came at a cost last week as they lost Jameis Winston for the season.
It will mean the Saints are going to head into the Week 9 game with their third string Quarter Back with Taysom Hill expected to sit out again. Trevor Siemian played well enough in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he was helped with some 'interesting' refereeing and it is going to be very difficult the New Orleans Saints to move the ball consistently with this current Quarter Back, at least in my opinion.
The New Orleans Saints Offensive Line have not really opened up holes for the running game as well as they would have liked and it might be a tougher outing for Alvin Kamara with the Falcons likely to focus on stopping them up front. In recent games the Falcons Defensive Line have played well and I think Alvin Kamara may have a much bigger impact as a pass-catching Back.
Michael Thomas has been lost for the season, which means the Saints passing game is going to have one or two issues moving the ball through the air. Over the course of the season the absence of Michael Thomas has meant the Saints have been relying on unfamiliar names in the Receiving department and I think the fans would love to see someone like Odell Beckham Jr rock up in New Orleans.
Trevor Siemian will have some issues moving the ball through the air against a Falcons Secondary that has made one or two decent plays and overall you do have to wonder if the home team have enough to cover the points they are being asked to.
However, they may not need a lot of points if the Atlanta Falcons continue to be as inconsistent Offensively as they have been. Like New Orleans, Atlanta are going to be without their Number 1 Wideout as Calvin Ridley looks after his mental health, and the Falcons Offensive Line has had trouble protecting Matt Ryan as well as when they have been asked to open up running lanes.
Now they have to face the New Orleans Defensive unit that has been a major factor in the 5-2 start to the 2021 season. The Saints Defensive Line have been stout against the run and they have also generated a very effective pass rush, which should mean they can disrupt some of the Atlanta drives.
It will mean Matt Ryan having to make plays from third and long spots at times, but there are one or two areas to exploit in the New Orleans Secondary and they should be able to make some plays through the air. Losing Calvin Ridley is a blow, but Atlanta have an opportunity here against a New Orleans team that is coming off an emotional victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Dropping off from that level will be tough and it will certainly give the Falcons a chance to keep this one very competitive, even if they are not likely to win.
New Orleans do have a very good record against the Atlanta Falcons at home and the latter have struggled to compete in a fitting manner against other NFC South rivals in recent games.
The Saints are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the favourite and I do think this could be a difficult spot for them off the back of a huge win. Trevor Siemian is difficult to trust to cover such a spread and I think the Falcons will be more prepared to deal with the third string Quarter Back than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in Week 8.
Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: You can't even begin to talk about this game without mentioning the controversy around Aaron Rodgers- he had alluded to being vaccinated against Covid-19 a few months ago, but admitted that was not the case after a positive test in the build up to this game and one that will keep him out for possibly two games.
However, this is not going to be the end of the matter as Rodgers has been acting like he has been vaccinated- that means he has been able to do things others have been allowed to by the NFL, but now there could be some serious punishment handed out.
It is far from an ideal situation for the Green Bay Packers (7-1) who ended the last unbeaten record in the NFL in Week 8 and looked like they could challenge for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. That is a vital position for teams as it will be the only one with a Bye Week attached in January, but the Packers are now going to have to hope that Jordan Love can step up for them.
Instead of the Aaron Rodgers versus Patrick Mahomes match up, Jordan Love is going to be analysed and many will make sweeping statements about his ability at Quarter Back in just his second season with the Green Bay Packers. Play really well and people may even call for him to replace Rodgers now, but a really poor outing may have Packers fans wondering where their team will be when their Hall of Fame Quarter Back leaves, most likely at the end of the 2021 season.
The headlines may be dominated by Aaron Rodgers, but the Kansas City Chiefs (4-4) cannot allow themselves to be distracted as they look to back up the Monday Night Football win over the New York Giants. It has been a disappointing season for the Chiefs and they are in a tough Division and Conference so they cannot allow themselves to overlook the Packers ahead of an important Divisional battle with the leaders Las Vegas in Week 10.
Kansas City will look for their tandem at Running Back to set the tempo of the game and they certainly have some room to exploit up front against the Green Bay Defensive Line. However, the Offensive Line has not been as strong when it comes to protecting Patrick Mahomes so running the ball is as important to just keep Kansas City in front of the chains and in third and short spots as much as possible.
Patrick Mahomes is not having a vintage season at Quarter Back, but he is playing well enough when he has been given time. Some bounces have hurt him, but Mahomes has not quit on the season and I do think he can have success moving the ball against the Green Bay Secondary if the Chiefs can put that Defensive unit on their toes.
Like the Kansas City Chiefs, the Green Bay Packers will be looking for a tandem at Running Back to keep the chains moving and also to make life as easy as possible for an inexperienced Quarter Back. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have played really well and they should be able to establish the run against the Kansas City Defensive Line, although the Chiefs may choose to load the line of scrimmage and dare Jordan Love to beat them through the air.
Even then, Jones and Dillon are capable of picking up yards through the air too and I do think the Green Bay game plan will be to try and sustain drives and take time off the clock as well as keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. In the last three games, the Chiefs have been a little better at stopping the run and I am not convinced Jordan Love can keep up in a shoot out with Patrick Mahomes if that is the direction this game goes.
They are a good team and you can imagine they are motivated to make up for being without their star Quarter Back, but the Green Bay players will also have been dealing with a very tough few days. That could be a distraction against a non-Conference opponent and I think the Kansas City Chiefs are just beginning to turn things around,
The Chiefs have not been a very good favourite to back as the layers have gotten on top of them and the public continues to want to back them. However, this looks a good chance for the Kansas City Chiefs to move back above 0.500 and take some momentum into the Week 10 game with the Las Vegas Raiders.
MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
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