The weeks keep rolling by and I will be adding to this NFL Week 13 thread in the coming couple of days.
But with a Thursday Night Football selection, it is straight into the Picks for the Week.
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints Pick: It is increasingly unlikely that the New Orleans Saints (5-6) are going to be able to overcome Super Bowl Champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. Another loss on Thanksgiving Day saw the injury hit Saints slump below 0.500 and they have lost four in a row since Jameis Winston went down with an injury.
Having a full week off may have been beneficial for the Saints with some key performers returning on the Offensive side of the ball as they look to get back on track. They will be hosting this Thursday Night Football game against the Dallas Cowboys (7-4) who have lost two in a row, but who remain 2 games ahead of the Washington Football Team at the top of the NFC East.
Returning to the PlayOffs looks like something that will happen for the Dallas Cowboys in 2021, but those back to back losses will have just knocked some of the increasing confidence that surrounded the team. Another Thanksgiving Day disappointment will have hurt, but the Cowboys will be facing more hardship in Week 13 with a number of their Coaches missing this game with Covid-19 issues.
That means Dan Quinn will be acting as Head Coach in place of Mike McCarthy and it is far from ideal preparation for a team who have lost two in a row. However, the Cowboys will be bolstered by the return of their top two Receivers in Week 13 after it was confirmed that Amari Cooper will be travelling with the team, while Ezekiel Elliot was limited in Week 12 and has also determined that he will be able to hand a full workload in this big game.
Dallas are going to need Elliot to get somewhere back to his best if they are going to win this game on the road as the favourite- he has not been hitting the holes up front as well as he was earlier this season and even Tony Pollard has had some difficulties when it comes to running the ball rather than catching the ball out of the backfield. The Cowboys Offensive Line prides itself on being able to establish the run, but they may not get a lot of change out of the New Orleans Defensive Line and that will mean Dak Prescott needs to produce his best at Quarter Back.
Dak Prescott was not helped by his Receiving corps in Week 12, but he should have much more success throwing to Cooper and CeeDee Lamb who are both expected to suit up. Being in third and long spots may see the Saints put some pressure on Prescott, but the Quarter Back will feel he can look away from Marshon Lattimore and find open targets down the field.
In recent games, the New Orleans Saints Secondary have played the pass well, but over the last four weeks they have faced Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan and I think Dak Prescott is arguably better than all four of those Quarter Backs. Josh Allen had the most success and is closest in terms of ability to Prescott, so the Cowboys should be able to move the ball and score points here on the road.
The question is really for the New Orleans Saints Offensive unit if this game is going to be competitive- the Saints have spluttered all season, but they had next to no chance without Alvin Kamara in Week 12. The Running Back is set to play in this one alongside Mark Ingram, and that should be a boost for the Saints, while all signs point to Taysom Hill taking over from Trevor Siemian at Quarter Back.
A contract extension has been agreed with Hill and it continues to be something that raises eyebrows around the League considering the lack of belief the Saints seemingly have in him. Taysom Hill may help spark the rushing Offense for the New Orleans Saints which has been struggling in recent games, and with both Kamara and Ingram alongside him the feeling is they can have some success against the Dallas Cowboys up front.
Dan Quinn will be taking on a different role this week, but his Dallas Defensive unit have played well and they will potentially have DeMarcus Lawrence back on the Defensive Line to strengthen all around. They were worn down by the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12 and you have to imagine the New Orleans Saints are going to try and the same thing and hope that can open up the passing lanes.
It is hard to know how well Taysom Hill is going to play when it comes to passing the ball, but the aggressive Dallas Secondary does give up some big plays. The problem for the New Orleans Saints has been that they don't really have a very good Receiving corps without Michael Thomas and so it is an inconsistent passing attack at the very best.
Taysom Hill's ability to scramble should be able to ease some of the pass rush pressure and I do think the Saints can do enough to keep this close, even if I am unsure if they can win the game outright.
The Saints are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games against Dallas and I do think Sean Payton can prepare them to bounce back from the one-sided loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Under Payton, New Orleans are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven home games when placed as the underdog. The Dallas Cowboys have some very strong trends that need to be respected as they have played better than most anticipated in 2021, but the Saints are home and are expected to be blown out after their last performance and that should be motivation enough for a team that has some key players back.
Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead are doubts, but if both are able to suit up on the New Orleans Offensive Line, I think the Saints can make use of the points being given to them as they try and get their PlayOff hopes back on track.
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins Pick: They have both lost seven games already this season, but the extra game on the schedule means there is still an opportunity to reach the PlayOffs for both of these teams. Time is an issue and losing a game like this one could be a fatal blow, but confidence will not be an issue for the two teams.
The Miami Dolphins (5-7) are about to head into a Bye Week, but they have won four in a row to turn their season back around. After falling to 1-7 the fans may have turned their attention to 2022, but Brian Flores continues to enhance his reputation as the Head Coach and the four wins in a row comes at a good time for the Dolphins.
On either side of the Bye Week, the Dolphins face teams with losing records and winning both would mean they head into the final three weeks of the season at 0.500 and with every chance of breaking into the PlayOffs. They barely missed out in 2020 and Miami are a big favourite to see off the New York Giants (4-7) who have won three of their last five games, but who will be going into Week 13 without Daniel Jones at Quarter Back.
Mike Glennon will get the call to take over as starter, but you have to do wonder if that is going to have a big impact on what the Giants would have wanted to do Offensively. He does not have the same scrambling ability as Daniel Jones and the Giants Offensive Line could be under pressure from the Miami Dolphins considering what we have seen from Miami as a pass rushing team during this winning run.
It is not like Glennon can lean on Saquon Barkley and the running game either with the Offensive Line having issues in run blocking as much as they have had with pass protection. At one point the Dolphins Defensive Line really struggled to clamp down on the run, but they have been better of late and the Secondary is playing at a really high level as Miami turn their season around.
Running the ball is not going to be much easier for Miami, but they have a Quarter Back playing with a lot of confidence. Tua Tagovailoa has to be given credit for some of his recent performances, but he can be thankful to Jaylen Waddle who is showing why he was selected in the First Round by the Miami Dolphins last year.
I expect Waddle and Mike Gesicki to have decent games with the Dolphins relying on throwing the ball to keep the chains moving. They do have Myles Gaskin running the ball, but the Dolphins have shown little belief that the can expose some of the issues on the New York Defensive Line, which has struggled to contain the run, and instead it will be the passing game that is key for the home team.
Miami's Offensive Line is still a work in progress and likely going to have more investment in it over the next several months, but they have been playing a little better of late. They are also facing a Giants team that has struggled to get a push up front and so Tua Tagovailoa should have time to make his throws and lead the Dolphins to another win.
The Giants do have a strong record as a road underdog, but Miami are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite. Add in the backup Quarter Back taking this game on for the New York Giants and I think the Miami Dolphins can enter the Bye Week with another good looking win behind them.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Pick: They are not going to finish with a 0-17 record this season, but another late Field Goal was given up as the Detroit Lions (0-10-1) were beaten on Thanksgiving Day. The loss to the Chicago Bears has put the Lions on the edge of elimination, but Head Coach Dan Campbell will be keen to see his team at least find a way to win one of the close games that have gone against them and avoid a winless season.
They are facing the Minnesota Vikings (5-6) who fell below 0.500 after a close loss to the San Francisco 49ers and their own PlayOff hopes have been dented. The Vikings can get back on track with a win on the road, but they will know how tough even a winless team can make things having beaten the Lions by just 2 points at home.
Minnesota had almost 100 more yards than the Lions on the day and, even without Dalvin Cook, I would expect the Vikings to have the balance to win this game. Alexander Mattison is a capable backup for Dalvin Cook, but the Vikings will not have it easy pummelling the ball on the ground against a Detroit Defensive Line which has stood up to ground attacks in recent games.
With extra time to prepare, I expect the Lions to at least have the character to try and force Kirk Cousins to beat them through the air, although the Quarter Back is more than good enough to do that. He had a bad game at the 49ers, but Cousins has been playing well and the Lions have holes in the Secondary that his Receivers should be able to expose.
That should mean the Vikings will find enough Offensively to get past Detroit, but I do think the Lions can at least keep things relatively close with the way they are going to approach this Offensively. The key is to make sure the game is close because that should mean the Lions are able to hand the ball to Jamaal Williams who can pick up big gains on the ground, although it is a shame that D'Andre Swift is going to be miss out.
Jamaal Williams is a pounder and produced a solid game against the Bears when Swift went down with an injury, but the pass-catching ability of Swift will be missed. While the Lions can keep pounding the ball, they should be good to move the ball with some consistency, but they will not want to rely on Jared Goff and the passing game for too long.
Jared Goff has struggled in his first season in Detroit, but he doesn't have the best supporting cast and so it is vital to run the ball effectively. He may have more of an opportunity to make some plays down the field in this one against the Vikings Secondary, especially with the pass rush not working as well as the road team would like, and I think there is every reason to believe Detroit will keep this one close.
It is certainly hard to trust Minnesota who are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games as the favourite and with a Thursday Night Football game coming up in Week 14. The Lions are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog, while they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven against Divisional rivals and I think having more than a Touchdown worth of points is hard to ignore here.
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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