The final thread for the College Football Bowl Season will focus on the big games leading up to the New Year and that includes both College Football PlayOff games before the National Championship.
Motivations can be hard to figure out for the top schools with key players opting out of Bowl Games if they are heading to the NFL, and especially if they are not going to be playing in one of the premium post-season games.
It is something to keep in mind with the final few days of the College Football season in front of us.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Maryland Terrapins Pick: Two teams who have the same record heading into this Bowl Game are looking to secure a victory that will see them end up with a winning record. The losing team will have a losing record though and that should bring some motivation onto the field for the Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) and Maryland Terrapins (6-6).
Both of these teams secured their Bowl eligibility by winning their last regular season game, but the season will be looked back upon vastly differently from the eyes of the players on opposite sidelines. The Terrapins have not been in a Bowl Game since 2016, while they have not won a post-season game since 2010, and a win on Wednesday will give Maryland a winning record for the first time since 2014.
Head Coach Mike Locksley has seen his team steadily progress and this is his third year in charge of the Terrapins. He has admitted that the extra Bowl practices will stand Maryland in good stead in 2022 and this is a team that looks capable of building on what they have laid down in 2021.
Excitement around the Maryland camp may be a much different feeling than the one the Hokies will be playing with. Justin Fuente was not able to escape another sub-par season as Head Coach of Virginia Tech and that is mainly down to the expectations around this school which means they demand winning seasons every season.
There was a real fear that the Hokies were going to have a losing record in three of four seasons and so it was no surprise that Fuente was fired, although a win over rivals Virginia has given the Hokies a chance to avoid that fate. They will have to win this game, but the Hokies have lost their last three Bowl Games.
New Head Coach Brent Pry will not be on the sidelines for the Hokies and this is a team that will be short-handed in the Bowl Game with a number of players opting out. Quarter Back Braxton Burmeister has decided he will transfer to another school despite starting every game for the Hokies this season and this does feel like a game that is more of a dead rubber for Virginia Tech than the Maryland Terrapins.
The layers have cottoned on with the spread moving six points from the opening line- Virginia Tech had been set as the favourite, but it feels like the correct move to have the Terrapins go into the Bowl Game laying the points. I think they can show off their Offensive firepower to pull clear of the Hokies in this one with the uncertainty that the latter will be dealing with ahead of this game too.
Maryland do have a strong balance on the Offensive side of the ball, although they may not have as much room to run the ball as they found towards the end of the regular season. The Hokies Defensive Line have been proud of being able to clamp down on the run, but there are some huge holes in the Secondary which can be exposed by Tua's younger brother, Taulia Tagovailoa.
A Hokies pass rush can cause some problems, but even then I would expect Maryland to move the ball with consistency in this one as long as Taulia Tagovailoa can make sure he avoids any mistakes in the passing game. That will put some pressure on the Virginia Tech Offensive unit who are going to be missing some key players in the Bowl Game and I think it will be enough for the Terrapins to come away with a big win.
I don't think Virginia Tech will go away quietly and that is because they should still be able to run the ball despite losing key Offensive playmakers. Over the last three games the Virginia Tech Offensive Line have taken over at the line of scrimmage and this Terrapins Defensive Line have given up some big gains on the ground.
The problem for the Hokies is that they are going to have to use an inexperienced Quarter Back with Braxton Burmeister out of the line up. I am not sure they will be able to exploit the Maryland Secondary as well as they would like and the motivation on the Virginia Tech sidelines may not be as high as the Terrapins with things changing at the Coaching positions for 2022.
Neither team has been much to back at the betting window, but Maryland are 5-1 against the spread in their last six non-Conference games and I think they will do enough to win this one and cover the mark.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Clemson Tigers Pick: After the successes of recent seasons, even the departure of Trevor Lawrence would not have lowered expectations around the Clemson Tigers (9-3). Instead it was a very difficult opening couple of months of the season which meant the Tigers came up short not only when it came to the College Football PlayOff selection, but they also failed to reach the ACC Championship Game.
Much of the problems were down to an inconsistent Offensive unit which has not played up to the level of the Defensive side of the ball. However, there is still something to hold onto for the Tigers who finished the regular season with five straight wins and came place the school alongside some of the elite schools in College Football history by producing double digit wins for an eleventh straight season.
Only two other teams have maintained that kind of standard so there should be plenty of motivation on the Clemson sidelines despite the fact they have not nearly reached their goals for the season.
The same can be said for the Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) who would have been looking to reach the Big 12 Championship Game at the very least. Instead it has been an inconsistent season for the Cyclones, although Head Coach Matt Campbell has helped the team produce five consecutive winning seasons.
It is an achievement that should not be overlooked even if the Cyclones have fallen short of their main ambitions of the season and Matt Campbell will be looking forward to pitting wits with Dabo Swinney. The Iowa State Head Coach has been a real admirer of the work that Dabo Swinney has done as Head Coach of the Clemson Tigers and he would love to show what he has learned in previous visits to South Carolina.
Brock Purdy would love to sign off on the 2021 season with a big performance at Quarter Back and the feeling is that the Cyclones are going to have to lean on his arm. While the Offensive Line has opened up some solid holes up front, running the ball against the Tigers has proven to be an almost impossible task and it is the strength up front which has allowed Clemson to stall drives.
While I do think Brock Purdy can make some plays against this Secondary, being in third and long is a tough ask for any Quarter Back against this Defensive unit. The Cyclones have graded the road for the run, but the Offensive Line has not been as comfortable in pass protection and the Tigers have a fierce pass rush that will be looking to get the ball back into the hands of their Offensive unit with good field position.
Controlling the clock will also be important for the Tigers to make sure they are able to keep the Cyclones on the sidelines cooling off and I do think Clemson can do that. I expect the Tigers to win on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that means I am looking for them to establish the run and keep the team in third and manageable spots at the very least.
With the Iowa State Defensive Line struggling down the stretch, I think the Tigers Offense could have the balance on this side of the ball that makes it hard to stop them. The Offensive Line have been able to open holes to pound the ball, but they have also been protecting Quarter Back DJ Uiagalelei who has not really reached the expectation level around him.
He should be better next year, but I also think he can have a solid Bowl outing with the Offense likely to be in front of the chains. The Cyclones Secondary haven't given up big plays, but there is room for DJ Uiagalelei to find his Receivers and the Tigers look to have kept all the players together for this Bowl Game which should give them the edge.
Clemson are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen Bowl Games and I expect them to be well Coached and ready to compete. The Tigers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite and they are 16-5 against the spread in their last twenty-one when playing on a neutral field.
I would be surprised if the Cyclones roll over, but they are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven on a neutral field and 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.
With that in mind I will look for the Clemson Defensive unit to come up strong and help the team win and cover the spread and earn a tenth win in the 2021 season.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: Following in the path laid down by a father with a legendary name in College Football is never going to be an easy task, but Shane Beamer has impressed in his first season as Head Coach of the South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6). After winning just six games across the last two seasons, the Gamecocks would have seen 2021 as a rebuilding season under a new Head Coach, but instead they have exceeded most expectations.
They will be a pretty big underdog in this Bowl Game, the first South Carolina are playing since 2018, and motivation should not be a problem against a non-Conference rival.
The North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) were expected to challenge for the ACC Championship this season, but they have not been consistent enough and will not match the eight wins secured last year. However, the Tar Heels can end 2021 with a third winning season in a row under Head Coach Mack Brown and they have key players happy to play in the Bowl Game to secure that record.
Sam Howell could easily have decided to do what many others have and skip the Bowl Game in favour of preparing for the NFL Draft with the feeling he will declare himself eligible for the pro game at the end of this season. The Tar Heels will need their Quarter Back to lead from the front in this one having ended up playing in a Bowl Game far below the level on which they would have liked to perform, but I do think North Carolina are the better team in this one.
While the headlines are likely to be about Howell's participation, it will be the North Carolina Offensive Line that could be the key to putting the Tar Heels in a position to win the game. They have been very strong at the line of scrimmage and been able to run the ball very well and now they are facing a South Carolina Defensive Line which has been unable to clamp down on the run.
The strong gains that have been made on the ground have perhaps been the main reason the South Carolina Secondary has the kind of numbers they do down the stretch. Teams have not needed to make a lot of throws against them, but I think the Tar Heels will be looking to run the ball to open up the passing game down the field.
It should be a game in which the Tar Heels are able to move the ball with some consistency, but you can't rule out the South Carolina Gamecocks considering this is a rivalry game. The fans will be in the Stadium to back the underdog and there are some bragging rights on the line, but South Carolina will be without ZaQuandre White at Running Back.
The decision from White may not be a bad one considering the issues the Gamecocks Offensive Line has had in trying to establish the run down the stretch. They are also going to be up against a solid North Carolina Defensive Line and the Tar Heels will feel that making the Gamecocks a little one-dimensional Offensively can give them a real edge.
The record has to be respected in 2021, but the inexperience at Quarter Back has just held South Carolina back this season. I think they will be better for it in 2022, but the Gamecocks have struggled for consistency passing the ball and I think that will be the main reason the team stalls when driving for points and ultimately leads to the Tar Heels pulling away for a good win.
Clamping down on the run like they have been will also give the Tar Heels pass rush a chance to make a big impact on the game and I would expect them to get after Luke Doty at Quarter Back whenever he is left in third and long. If the Gamecocks are forced to rely on the pass, I expect the Tar Heels to make those plays on the Defensive Line that gives them a serious edge in this Bowl Game, even if they may have hoped for a more important post-season spot.
North Carolina upset South Carolina in August 2019, but this time the Tar Heels are the big favourite.
They will be aware of the strong trends that South Carolina have in Bowl Games, but this is a new experience for the Head Coach and the Gamecocks are 3-11 against the spread in their last fourteen games as the underdog. I expect the Tar Heels to take control behind the run and that should see the Defensive unit make enough big plays to help North Carolina pull clear and then produce a late stop to secure another winning season.
Purdue Boilermakers vs Tennessee Volunteers Pick: There was very little expectation on the shoulders of either of these schools in 2021, but both the Purdue Boilermakers (8-4) and Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) have secured winning records and can head into this Bowl Game looking to end the season in the right way.
Having a strong season is a positive, but it does mean some of the players on both rosters have impressed enough to not want to risk any injury before the NFL Draft. The Purdue Boilermakers have been hit much harder by players deciding to opt out of the Bowl Game and that is the main reason they are such an underdog.
The Boilermakers showed some improvement running the ball down the stretch in the regular season, but the overall season suggests it will be difficult for them to establish the run with any consistency against this Tennessee Defensive Line. Any team that can be made a little one-dimensional is vulnerable, but the Purdue passing game has impressed, led by Aidan O'Connell at Quarter Back.
I do think Aidan O'Connell can have a very big game because there have been some vulnerabilities in the Tennessee Secondary, but he is going to be without some of the better Receivers on the roster. While the Quarter Back can have others step up, he is also without one of the key Offensive Linemen and I think O'Connell could find himself under more pressure when throwing the ball than he has been used to in the 2021 season.
The problem for the Boilermakers is that they are not only without key players on the Offensive side of the ball, but they are missing their two top Defensive players and that is not ideal against a Tennessee team that have impressed on this side of the ball under Head Coach Josh Heupel in his first season in Knoxville.
Hendon Hooker has played really well for the Volunteers at Quarter Back having arrived in a transfer from Virginia Tech, but it is the balance on the Offense which makes Tennessee so dangerous. They should be able to establish the run, even though Tiyon Evans has decided to leave the team, and that is largely down to a strong Offensive Line.
Over the course of the season, the Boilermakers Defensive Line has been vulnerable to the run and I think the Volunteers will be in a position where they can use play-action and short yardage situations for Hooker to try and hit Purdue down the field.
It should also be important in negating the strong Purdue pass rush and I think Tennessee are going to be more motivated by the fact this game is being played in Nashville and so they should have the majority of support inside the Stadium.
Purdue have been a very good underdog to back and have taken on the tag 'Spoilermakers' this season, but they are down multiple quality starters. The Volunteers should be able to take advantage and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite and I expect they will do just enough to edge past this mark in what should be a really fun game.
Michigan State Spartans vs Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: The struggles of the Clemson Tigers early in 2021 left the ACC feeling like a wide open Conference and it is the Pittsburgh Panthers (11-2) who won the Championship. All credit has to be given to Head Coach Pat Narduzzi who has led the Panthers to a winning record in five of the seven seasons he has been in charge in Pittsburgh, while the team have won at least seven games in six of those years.
They have surpassed expectations significantly and won a first ACC Championship having previously played in the Big East, and the Panthers will feel they can finish this season with twelve wins for the first time since finishing the 1976 season with a perfect 12-0 record and a National Championship.
Kenny Pickett has been a key part of the Panthers success and the Quarter Back is expected to be Drafted in the First Round of the NFL Draft coming up in April. However, that also means Pickett has decided he will miss the Bowl Game to prepare for the next stage of his career and the Panthers are going to hand the ball to Nick Patti at Quarter Back.
Unsurprisingly, Nick Patti is largely inexperienced playing behind Pickett, but he will be encouraged by the players around him and I think the Panthers will be able to move the ball against this tough Michigan State Spartans (10-2) team who have been a revelation in 2021. There were almost no expectations on the Spartans in the second season under Mel Tucker having finished 2-5 last season, but they pushed the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes all the way in the tough Big Ten East and actually hold a win over their rivals Michigan who will be playing in the College Football PlayOff.
Mel Tucker has been rewarded with a big contract extension and his team will be looking to finish on the right note, although they are also going to be missing some important players who are preparing for the NFL Draft. The Defensive unit has not been playing to the level we have become used to in East Lansing, but the Spartans have massively impressed.
However, as I have stated above, I do think Nick Patti will have some success against them with the Panthers likely to have some success trying to establish the run. As inexperienced as the Quarter Back is, Nick Patti has some playing time behind him and the Spartans have a Secondary which has been guilty of giving up some big plays towards the end of the regular season.
Michigan State will feel their pass rush can at least rattle Patti behind Center, but the Spartans are going to be without their top player, Kenneth Walker, and they are going to have some problems moving the ball themselves. It makes the spread appealing in favour of the underdog ACC Champions and I think the Spartans will not be able to establish the run as well as their opponents could do.
Payton Thorne has played well at Quarter Back and I do think he will have a good game throwing the ball into the vulnerable Pittsburgh Secondary, but the Spartans base so much of their success on running the ball efficiently. Otherwise they are going to have to deal with a Panthers pass rush which is capable of getting to the Quarter Back and I think that will be important to stall some drives and give the Panthers an opportunity to cover this mark.
The Spartans have played really well this season and the layers have not been able to get in front of them, but I think this spread has moved too far the other way. Pittsburgh are without their top Quarter Back, but I think Nick Patti could surprise and I will take the points that are on offer in this big Bowl Game.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Wisconsin Badgers Pick: A poor start put the Wisconsin Badgers (8-4) behind the black ball as to how far they could go this season, but they rallied and looked set to play in the Big Ten Championship Game. A disappointing defeat to the Minnesota Golden Gophers prevented that from happening, but the Badgers are looking to bounce back in this Bowl Game.
They are the favourites in this one against the Arizona State Sun Devils (8-4), but this is a team who has to be respected having secured another winning season under Head Coach Herm Edwards. Arizona State won the Bowl Game they played in 2019, but they came up short in the Pac-12 South Division this season, although there are some positives to take on board.
Jayden Daniels did not really play up to the level expected in 2021, but the Quarter Back has already decided he is going to return to the Sun Devils and that should mean 2022 could be a really big year for the team. However, this is a really challenging test for Daniels and the Sun Devils Offensive unit against a powerful Wisconsin Defense and even more so without the top two Running Backs.
It has been a key for the Sun Devils to establish the run and then open up the passing lanes, but Arizona State will struggle to do that here. Rachaad White and DeaMonte Trayanum are both absent and the Badgers Defensive Line is strong enough to contain the back up Running Backs and that should put a lot of pressure on Jayden Daniels.
Failing to establish the run will mean Jayden Daniels will have to deal with the Wisconsin pass rush, while he has to show more consistency throwing the ball. Jayden Daniels has thrown 10 Touchdown passes and 9 Interceptions and he has to be wary about testing this Badgers Secondary which has been very good at turning the ball over.
Like the Sun Devils, Wisconsin will be looking to run the ball and set up the entire playbook for the Offensive unit and I do think they could have a little more success than their opponent too. The Badgers Offensive Line have been very strong at the line of scrimmage, while the Arizona State Secondary are missing key players to open things up for Graham Mertz at Quarter Back.
He has not had to do too much with the way the Badgers have been able to pound the ball, but Graham Mertz could have success in this one against a weakened Arizona State Secondary. I think that will be the key for the Badgers in pulling away and covering a pretty big mark and I do like Wisconsin in this Bowl Game.
Wisconsin are usually well prepared for the post-season and have gone 5-2 against the spread in their last seven Bowl Games.
Herm Edwards has the enthusiasm to get the best out of his Arizona State team though and the Sun Devils have been a strong underdog with Edwards at Head Coach. However, they are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine against non-Conference opponents and I think the Sun Devils are short-handed in this one which should give this strong Wisconsin team an opportunity to find the big plays to cover the mark.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: A run of four consecutive winning seasons was ended in 2020, but the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-3) were expecting to be a much better team in 2021. Even then, the run to the ACC Championship Game and securing ten wins before the Bowl Game would have surprised everyone associated with the team as they look to put an exclamation mark on one of their best ever College Football seasons.
The Demon Deacons have not won a Bowl Game since 2018 so there will be motivation in the camp, while they may have benefited from having a replacement to face in this game. Covid issues have allowed the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-7) to become the only team with a losing record taking part in the post-season, but they are on short preparation for the Bowl Game and Rutgers lost seven of their last nine regular season games.
Rutgers have now had six losing seasons in succession and will be taking part in a Bowl for the first time since 2014 and you do have to wonder how much they will have in the tank for this one. A reprieve to reach a Bowl Game should be encouraging the players, but the preparation will be far from ideal, although the Scarlet Knights may also be hoping that the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are a little distracted by the late change in opponent.
Playing a team with a losing record is perhaps not the most fitting way to end what has been a strong season, but I still think the Demon Deacons will have too much for their Big Ten opponent.
To put it simply, I am not sure Rutgers have the Offensive firepower to keep up with a Demon Deacons team that have been able to light up the scoreboard. There are holes in the Wake Forest Defensive unit, but the Scarlet Knights have not really shown they are a team who could expose those problems and I think it will lead to a pretty big win for the favourite.
Wake Forest have struggled to run the ball down the stretch and they may not find a lot of room up front, but Sam Hartman can end his season with a bang thanks to his strong passing displays. Even though the Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection down the stretch, the Scarlet Knights have not generated much of a pass rush and I think Sam Hartman will have plenty of time to hit his Receivers down the field and help the Demon Deacons score the kind of number of points they have been averaging all season.
As I have mentioned, there have been some issues for Wake Forest on the Defensive side of the ball and I do think they are going to have problems clamping down on the run. However, if they can move a couple of scores ahead of the Scarlet Knights, the feeling is that Rutgers do not have the kind of passing attack to really keep up with the Demon Deacons and that is where the ACC Atlantic Division Champions can pull away for a win and a cover of a large spread.
The Demon Deacons have covered the last four times as a favourite and Rutgers have ended this season with a 1-4 record against the spread when set as the underdog. As long as Wake Forest are not too disappointed by the quality of the replacement in this Bowl Game, I think they can pull clear for a big win.
Washington State Cougars vs Central Michigan Chippewas Pick: Two teams who were on the verge of missing out on an opportunity to compete in the Bowl season have come together to make sure the players have their deserved chance to play. The Washington State Cougars (7-5) and the Central Michigan Chippewas (8-4) have the records to have earned their right to play in the Sun Bowl and they are meeting midway between where they were supposed to originally take part.
It has been a really tough season for the Cougars who lost their Head Coach midway through the season after Nick Rolovich refused to take the Covid vaccination which was made mandatory at Washington State. Even then, the Cougars won three of their last four games to ensure a winning record and they are going to be the favourites in this Bowl Game.
The Central Michigan Chippewas missed out on a Bowl Game in the shortened 2020 season, but they have secured winning records in two of the three seasons under Head Coach Jim McElwain. He will be looking for a much better all around effort than the one seen when Central Michigan were blown out in a Bowl Game in 2019.
Momentum is with the Chippewas who have won four in a row since losing by a point against Northern Illinois and they will certainly feel they can do enough Offensively to at least give themselves a better showing than when beaten heavily by the San Diego State Aztecs a couple of seasons ago.
As well as Washington State have played down the stretch, the Defensive Line has struggled and I do think this is an opportunity for the Central Michigan Offensive Line to establish some dominance up front. Running the ball will see the team controlling the clock and being in front of the chains will give Central Michigan a chance to at least keep this one close.
The Cougars have produced a limited pass rush and Daniel Richardson should have enough time to keep the chains moving as long as the team are able to establish the run as expected.
At the same time it is almost impossible to believe the Washington State Cougars will not have the type of Offensive output to be in a position to win this Bowl Game. They have produced numbers in the Pac-12 which should give the Cougars a chance to move the ball on the Chippewas, although Washington State have continued to struggle to run the ball since changing system from the Mike Leach Air Raid to the one we see now.
Failing to run the ball effectively will bring the Chippewas pass rush into play and I think it could at least keep the underdog in this Bowl Game, even if they do ultimately come up short. Jayden de Laura has had a very good season for the Washington State Cougars and I think he will make some very good plays in this one to keep the chains moving, but I like the Central Michigan Offensive Line and I think they help keep this one close by establishing the run.
The Cougars have overachieved with their strong performance against the spread, but the Chippewas are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog. Central Michigan were well beaten by the LSU Tigers in the regular season, but the Cougars are not as strong as that SEC team and I think the Chippewas can be worth backing on the spread.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The College Football PlayOff has been dominated by the top Conferences since its inception, but all credit has to be given to the unbeaten Cincinnati Bearcats (13-0) who won the American Athletic Conference and deserved their place in the final four.
The win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, on the road no less, is the best one that the Bearcats have had this season, but schools up and down the country fell away and the Committee had not choice but to pick Cincinnati in the Number Four Seed. It is a big test of their credentials right out of the gate as they prepare to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) who overcame their defeat to the Texas A&M Aggies and ended up winning the SEC Championship.
It is that win over the Georgia Bulldogs which has carried the Crimson Tide into the PlayOff once again and they are the favourites to go on and win another National Championship under Nick Saban. With Bryce Young leading the team at Quarter Back, there is no doubt that the Bearcats are going to be facing the toughest Offensive unit they will have seen all season.
Head Coach Luke Fickell knows all about the challenges that are presented by the Crimson Tide from his time as Defensive Co-Ordinator of the Ohio State Buckeyes, but he was part of the team that upset the Crimson Tide in the final four of the PlayOff.
That remains the sole defeat for Alabama before the National Championship Game when they have been picked to take part in the PlayOff and I am not surprised that they are such a favourite in this Game considering the dominating win over the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game.
I do feel the Bearcats Defensive unit is all it is hyped up to be, but my feeling is that the Crimson Tide's own Defensive unit will build pressure by making sure Cincinnati have to be on the field more than they are used to. Field position is another factor that could swing this game in favour of the favourites and I am not sure how efficient Desmond Ridder is going to be at Quarter Back for the American Athletic Champions.
Desmond Ridder has not had a bad season by any stretch, but the Bearcats are a team that are propelled by establishing the run. However, they are facing up to an Alabama Defensive Line which has been very strong at clamping down on the run and the SEC competition will have hardened them up enough to deal with the Bearcats.
It is then going to mean Desmond Ridder has to make plays from third and long and I do think he could struggle- I do believe there are some holes in the Alabama Secondary with this entire unit not being as strong as the teams we have seen in recent seasons, but the Crimson Tide have rushed the passer with tremendous success and they could rattle Ridder into a mistake or two, which could prove to be costly.
The Bearcats could keep things close for a while considering the level of the Defense that Luke Fickell has put together in this part of Ohio, but the challenge for the Bearcats is dealing with the speed that comes with a SEC team. The Defensive Line should be able to clamp down on the run on this side of the ball too, especially when you consider the inconsistent performances from the Crimson Tide's rushing Offense, but Bryce Young could be they key to the outcome.
Bryce Young won't have things all his own way though and that is because the Bearcats have been able to generate a really effective pass rush. The Alabama Offensive Line has not only failed to run block as we have been used to, but they have allowed Young to be hit plenty of times and it may just slow down the passing game of the SEC Champions.
Over the years the Crimson Tide have largely dominated the first of the two PlayOff Games they have come to expect and I think they will do enough to get over this line, despite the strong Cincinnati team in front of them.
The Bearcats have to be respected for the way they have handled themselves as an underdog, but this is a huge challenge for them. I am not sure they will have enough Offensive output to stay with the Crimson Tide who can wear down Cincinnati's Defensive unit over the course of the game and eventually cover a big mark.
Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: The Jim Harbaugh era began with a lot of excitement at the Michigan Wolverines (12-1), but it has largely been a time of underachievement.
At least before 2021.
For the first time under Harbaugh, Michigan were able to top rivals Ohio State Buckeyes and winning the Big Ten East opened the door for the Wolverines to earn their way into the College Football PlayOff for the first time too. They still had to crush the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game and that was enough for the Wolverines to finish with the Number 2 Seed in the PlayOff, although they are a pretty big underdog in this Bowl Game.
They are facing the Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) who lost the SEC Championship Game and ultimately were not able to finish unbeaten and also force the Committee to pick someone other than the Alabama Crimson Tide in the final four. Covid issues have been a concern for the Bulldogs heading into this Bowl Game, but the Michigan Wolverines have some problems on their own which may be a factor in how this one shapes up.
Both of these teams are very much relying on a strong Defensive unit to set the table and I think both Michigan and Georgia are going to have success on that side of the ball. That is despite the fact that both teams have shown Offensive power over the course of the season and it will be the team that is able to establish the run which is likely to win the game.
The heavy loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide has dented some of the Georgia Defensive numbers, but I still think their Defensive Line is the strongest one on display in this game and can make more stops up front.
It should mean the Georgia Bulldogs are able to set up Stetson Bennett in slightly better third down and distance than Cade McNamara can expect for the Michigan Wolverines and it should mean the SEC team have the edge. Stetson Bennett is also going to be encouraged by some of the holes that have been seen in the Michigan Secondary over their last few games and the Quarter Back should have success.
The Georgia Offensive Line also looks like it can protect Stetson Bennett well enough to give him time to throw into the Secondary and it should mean the Bulldogs are in a position to cover.
I have a lot of time for the Michigan Wolverines in 2021 and I have been impressed by the performance of Quarter Back Cade McNamara, but the Wolverines may need more from him if they are going to be competitive. If they cannot establish the run against the very strong Georgia Defensive Line, Cade McNamara will be in an uncertain position and that is where mistakes could be made.
The turnover battle is going to be really important in this Bowl Game and I am just looking for Stetson Bennett to out-duel Cade McNamara.
Georgia have been used to being a favourite in this neutral site games and they have been very strong to back in those, while the Michigan Wolverines are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the underdog on a neutral field.
This should be close, but a late turnover may swing the game completely in the direction of the Georgia Bulldogs who can move into the National Championship Game and anticipate looking for revenge against likely opponents Alabama.
MY PICKS: Maryland Terrapins - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 17 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Central Michigan Chippewas + 7 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 13 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
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