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Friday, 10 December 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 16 Picks (December 10-12)

I spent a few days up in Manchester with the main reason being the short space of time between the Arsenal and Crystal Palace matches at Old Trafford.

It was a great decision- weather aside- and I truly love the place.

The people are some of the best, although I am a little disappointed that some of the character of Manchester has been lost with a new skyline making it feel like you are not that far away from London. Even then, it was a wonderful time to get away for a few days and an opportunity to spend time with friends that is not always there on a match day thanks to the long travelling time it takes to reach the ground.

I am already looking forward to going back and there will be potential dates to do so before the end of this season.


It did mean I was not really concentrating on the Fantasy Football choices and I actually missed the Saturday deadline after a good Friday night out on the tiles. Ultimately the points suffered, but I was not too bothered about being able to hold a transfer, but more on that below my thoughts for the Weekend Premier League games that kick off on Friday through Sunday.


Brentford v Watford Pick: The opening Premier League game of this weekend comes from West London on Friday night and it involves two teams that came up from the Championship last May and who are looking to consolidate their place in the top flight.

If you asked random people on the street as to which of these teams is having the more successful season, the chances are the majority would say Brentford. However, Watford have picked up some vital points at key times and a win on Friday would mean they are only a point behind Brentford.

In recent weeks Brentford have struggled for victories in the Premier League, but they were unfortunate to not record another success when conceding late in the 2-2 draw at Elland Road last Sunday. The defensive vulnerabilities continue to hurt Brentford of late as they are without two of the key performers at the back and I do think Watford have shown enough in the final third over the last six weeks which should see them have joy when they get forward.

Watford created some very good chances in their last away game at Leicester City and they played well in their defeat to Chelsea. The loss to Manchester City showed some of the problems Watford are having in defensive areas too though and Brentford can cause problems even without Sergi Canos and Ivan Toney.

I think those absences hurt, but Brentford play good football and Thomas Frank will have had a week to prepare his team to make up for those that are missing. That should help Brentford, who beat Everton 1-0 in their last game here, but I also think Watford will be better for the time off to work under Claudio Ranieri on the training field.

Both teams hitting the back of the net would not be a big surprise, but I think this is a fixture that both Thomas Frank and Claudio Ranieri will be targeting as a potential three point opportunity. That should mean Brentford and Watford chasing the goals to win the game and I do think there will be at least three shared out on what should be a drier evening in West London.


Manchester City v Wolves Pick: One mistake can see a team drop from the top of the Premier League table very quickly and Manchester City are the latest to take over as leaders of the Division.

It could be a worry for their main title rivals considering the experience Manchester City have in winning the Premier League in recent seasons. They have a squad that is coping with injuries and Manchester City have been producing solid performances at the Etihad Stadium.

A defeat at Leipzig will have bothered Pep Guardiola, but his Manchester City team can bounce back on Saturday as they look to set the pace for the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea who play later on.

Beating Wolves will see Manchester City pull clear of their main title rivals before Liverpool and Chelsea have winnable home games, but the manager will be making sure his team are only focusing on themselves. Phil Foden missing out will hurt, but Manchester City have some key players that look to be rounding into good form and the return of Kevin De Bruyne cannot be underestimated.

This week they are facing a Wolves team that continue to struggle for goals and I do think Manchester City will be able to largely contain their visitors. You know Wolves are going to want to counter and use the pace they have in the final third, but they have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games including in back to back away games at Crystal Palace and Norwich City.

The worry for Bruno Lage is that his team have struggled to create quality chances in their last few games and Wolves may have issues finding their cutting edge against Manchester City. The home team are not exactly piling up the clean sheets themselves, but opponents have been clinical against them and are largely being kept at arm's length by the League leaders.

Last season Manchester City thumped Wolves home and away, but the resilience Wolves showed in their narrow defeat to Liverpool last Saturday will be encouraging. Better finishing would have made life easier for Liverpool on that day, but Wolves created little against them and I think Manchester City will be able to secure the three points in this fixture.

A clean sheet would not be a big surprise and I think the home team will likely win a game that features fewer than four goals on the day.


Arsenal v Southampton Pick: There will be some positives for Ralph Hasenhuttl after watching recent Southampton performances, but he will be feeling frustrated that they have not been able to hold onto leads against Leicester City and Brighton in their last couple of home games.

Against the former, Southampton led twice, while last Saturday they conceded deep into injury time in the 1-1 draw with Brighton.

The attacking chances being created are impressive, but Southampton have not been able to put the finishing touches to their football. Danny Ings would have made a real difference for them, but Adam Armstrong and Che Adams have been inconsistent in the final third.

A goalkeeping crisis will not help the mood of the away team and especially not when you have a look at the underlying defensive numbers. Earlier this season Southampton were producing some clean sheets, but more recently they have allowed teams to create really good chances against them and I think that is going to be a problem for them when they visit the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal will have had their confidence dented by back to back defeats at Manchester United and Everton and it is particularly disappointing that they were leading in both of those games. The defensive numbers have not been that impressive all season, but Arsenal were getting away with it at times and it all came to a head in those away games.

However, they have been better at home and Arsenal will be looking for a fifth straight win here. The absence of Emile Smith Rowe will hurt, but Arsenal have been creating chances and I think they will be on the front foot at home having sat in on leads in their last two fixtures.

Mikel Arteta doesn't really want his team to do that and I think they are facing an opponent that can be exploited in defensive areas. Southampton may play their part in this one and they have drawn on their last couple of visits to this Stadium, but Arsenal have been a little more clinical at home.

Arsenal have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League and I think they can win a game that features at least two goals.


Chelsea v Leeds United Pick: Recent results have been troubling for Thomas Tuchel and he will be looking to get his Chelsea team going back to basics. For much of this season Chelsea have been a very tough team to break down, but individual mistakes have been punished over the last few weeks and the six goals conceded to West Ham United and Zenit St Petersburg would have highly irritated the manager.

At least this weekend Chelsea get to return to Stamford Bridge, even though the last couple of Premier League games have both ended 1-1 here. In both Thomas Tuchel was frustrated with the inability of his team to take the chances they had been creating, but Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku are back and amongst the goals and they can give Chelsea a cutting edge.

For all the negatives about the goals being conceded, Chelsea have scored 7 goals in their last 3 games in all competitions. They will certainly believe getting on the front foot may offer the best defence for a team missing key players in the middle of the park, and at least this week Chelsea are facing an opponent who may be having more difficulties on the injury front.

Leeds United secured a late point in their home draw with Brentford last Sunday, but they may have lost Patrick Bamford in the process of the returning striker scoring an equaliser. Key players in defensive and midfield spots are also set to miss out for Leeds United and I think that is important in deciding which may this game goes.

Over the last fourteen months, Leeds United have struggled when facing the top teams in the Premier League and they have been well beaten by both Manchester United and Liverpool this season. Back to back away games at Stamford Bridge and the Etihad Stadium is a real challenge for Leeds United and I do think the goals being scored by Chelsea will be too much for the visitors to cope with.

At least with Raphinha, Leeds United can offer a threat, but Chelsea should be too strong for a team that has been inconsistent all season. Leeds United did earn a goalless draw at Brighton in their last away game, but Chelsea are not going to be as wasteful in front of goal as The Seagulls were that day and it should see the home team find a way to get back to winning ways.

If Chelsea can get off to a good start, they should be good enough to returning to winning form by securing a victory by two or more goals.


Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: The television companies have to be kicking themselves for not selecting this fixture for live coverage after Steven Gerrard was confirmed as manager of Aston Villa.

It will be his first return to Anfield as an opponent and the form under Gerrard will give Aston Villa some encouragement as they look to upset the odds. They have won 3 of their 4 Premier League games under their new manager and that includes a 1-2 win at Crystal Palace in their sole away fixture played.

However, the defeat came against Manchester City and Liverpool are playing as well as any team in Europe, never mind England.

Liverpool have been scoring goals for fun and they have looked pretty secure defensively which has helped them surge up the League table. They will want to keep the pressure on their title rivals with back to back fixtures at Anfield to come this week and Liverpool have won 4 in a row here in all competitions, while keeping clean sheets in each of those.

Steven Gerrard is going to know all about the inner workings of Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp so you do have to imagine he will have prepared Aston Villa effectively. Losing some of the midfielders and attackers that could have been really dangerous on the counter attack hurts the visitors though and I think Gerrard will be looking to contain the home team and hope to frustrate them as Wolves did.

Unfortunately for Aston Villa, Liverpool are creating a lot of chances at the moment and have three attackers in very good form that are likely to exploit any spaces they find. Aston Villa have been looking pretty organised under Gerrard, but they will find it tough to contain Liverpool and another home win is likely.

Aston Villa played well last Sunday, but previously they had not been creating a lot of chances and I think Liverpool can do enough to win this one with a clean sheet for a fifth time in succession at Anfield.


Norwich City v Manchester United Pick: This is not the time of the season when a new manager can spend a lot of time working with his players on the training ground with fixtures set to be played every few days.

However, Ralf Rangnick is putting in the extra hours to make sure his Manchester United team are well aware of what is expected of them. After the 1-1 draw with Young Boys, the manager made it clear he was not too happy with the goal conceded even in a dead rubber game and that intensity should benefit this squad as long as the players are all willing to listen.

It sounded like the squad players did not really impress as much as they could have and especially when you listened to Rangnick after the win over Crystal Palace. He seemed surprised the players were able to pick up his ideas as well as they did and I think a strong Manchester United team will make the long journey to Carrow Road with confidence.

A number of the first team players should be well rested as they look for a third Premier League win in succession and they could be facing the right opponent to do that.

Dean Smith has helped Norwich City pick up some impressive results since he came in as manager to replace Daniel Farke, but the 3-0 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur showed the amount of work to do to bridge the gap to the best teams in the Division. Norwich City created some chances that day, but they looked porous at the back and Manchester United should be able to create opportunities here.

Norwich City will cause some problems, but even having a full week to prepare for this game may not be enough to stay with Manchester United. Make no mistake about the importance of the upcoming game for Norwich City when they face Dean Smith's former team Aston Villa here on Tuesday and I think that could be a distraction for The Canaries.

The first goal is going to be important, but I think Ralf Rangnick will be looking to make sure Manchester United are operating from a solid base and that is key for the visitors. Manchester United have not always been the best away from home this season after a long unbeaten run on their travels in the Premier League, but they can score goals and I think the new manager bounce will help them beat a Norwich City team that are poor at the back.


Burnley v West Ham United Pick: A place in the Last 16 of the Europa League has been secured and that is a second pathway through to the Champions League for West Ham United, but over the coming weeks they can cement their credentials as genuine threat to finish in the top four of the Premier League.

David Moyes has done a terrific job at the London Stadium and his team have beaten both Liverpool and Chelsea at home this season. The only concern is that West Ham United failed to win any of 3 League games after beating Liverpool and they have to show they can back up the victory over Chelsea.

Playing away from home could be a challenge considering West Ham United have struggled to create chances in defeats at Wolves and Manchester City. The first team should be well rested having seen the younger members of the squad take part in the Europa League, but West Ham United still have to come in and try and impose themselves.

They could benefit from the opponent as Burnley are coming in off a defeat to relegation rivals Newcastle United. Sean Dyche is someone who has to be respected for his own performance as manager of Burnley, but this is another slow start to a campaign and the underlying numbers have to be really worrying for anyone who even pays a passing attention to them.

Last weekend it was Newcastle United who dominated the chances and that puts pressure on a Burnley team that are missing some important players. At least Burnley have found a way to goal at home in their last couple of Premier League games here and they should be able to have some success against a visiting team who are without a number of defenders, but ultimately I do think the quality of West Ham United will shine through.

West Ham United won at Turf Moor last season and came from behind to do so and I do think they can do a better job of backing up a big Premier League win by securing another one here.


Leicester City v Newcastle United Pick: Unlike the breakout at Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester City's Covid issues are not going to prevent them playing this weekend at the time of writing.

They are due to host Spurs during the week, but that game is much more likely to be postponed and Brendan Rodgers will be focusing on trying to earn an important win on Sunday to move back into the top half of the Premier League table.

It has been an extremely inconsistent season for Leicester City who are underachieving and the fans are losing a little bit of faith in the manager. There have been murmurings of frustration at the King Power Stadium and back to back losses which has included being dumped out of the Europa League will have hurt the confidence of the players.

Leicester City have not been too bad getting forward, but they have been so porous at the back and that has to be encouragement for Newcastle United after winning for the first time this season in their last fixture. Eddie Howe is a manager that likes his team to get forward and cause problems for opponents and Newcastle United have enough quality in the final third to certainly be able to do that here.

Newcastle United have won 3 of their last 4 visits to the King Power Stadium, which will back up their confidence, and it may be a good time to face Leicester City who are travelling back from Naples.

However, I do think Newcastle United are still struggling defensively and Leicester City have shown they can score plenty of goals. The Foxes have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and Brendan Rodgers may feel his team will be very dangerous on the front foot.

Both teams should have chances to score goals, but Leicester City may be able to edge to the points. Newcastle United's win over Burnley is a solid result, but they have been struggling defensively at the back in away games and it should mean Leicester City can create the chances to win this fixture in which goals should be flowing.


Crystal Palace v Everton Pick: You have to believe the 2-1 win for Everton over Arsenal is going to spark the squad that is still getting used to working with Rafael Benitez. Some of the players are rumoured to not completely be on board with Benitez, while injuries have hurt Everton throughout the season.

However, all of that pales into insignificance after the players produced a big performance for Rafael Benitez in overcoming Arsenal. That should show the majority of the players do believe in the Spaniard and Everton will head to South London with a confident attitude as they look to win consecutive games.

Some will feel they are facing Crystal Palace at the right time with Patrick Vieira's men losing 3 Premier League games in a row and struggling for goals. That ignores some of the chances that Crystal Palace have been guilty of missing, while they continue to defend pretty efficiently under their new manager and I do think they will be turning results around pretty soon.

Home form has been decent for Crystal Palace, but they have not been able to turn a few of the draws into wins, while a poor recent home record against Everton has to be on the mind of the players.

Crystal Palace will feel they can hurt Everton who still give up chances though and I do think this is a good opportunity to get back to winning ways. They should be able to get forward and create opportunities for the likes of Wilfred Zaha and Christian Benteke, but Crystal Palace will have to be aware of the qualities that Everton do have in the final third when they are defending.

The problem for Everton is that Crystal Palace have not been giving too much away and I think that is key to the outcome of this fixture. Better finishing will be needed for Crystal Palace, but I think they can fashion the chances to edge past their visitors and just put a bit more distance between themselves and the bottom three.

MY PICKS: Brentford-Watford Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Arsenal to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Liverpool Win to Nil
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Leicester City to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Crystal Palace - 0.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 16
So what happened in GameWeek 15?

I had already set my team, as I had suggested in my post before heading away to Manchester, but a heavy night out meant I was not able to make a good decision before the deadline for GW15 and I ended up rolling a transfer.

Ultimately I may have gotten a little lucky- my thinking was to bring in Ben Johnson from West Ham United with the upcoming fixtures, but he picked up an injury in the 3-2 win over Chelsea and is likely to miss out on much of the festive period.

And holding a transfer has not worked out too badly with the Tottenham Hotspur Covid issues that means they are likely to be out of action until GW18 when Liverpool are the visitors to North London (and even that fixture may be in doubt when you consider how long the isolation requests are for people suffering from the new variant).

With Sergio Reguilon and Harry Kane, the obvious decision is to shift both out and I am also contemplating taking a hit to make sure the bench is suitable to cover any unexpected absentees.

It is not ideal to have to do that, but I think it is better than ending up short of numbers in a period when matches are being played every few days.


Talking about Harry Kane, my risky move to pick him as Captain in back to back games worked out terribly- the theory wasn't bad, Tottenham Hotspur scored five goals after all, but Harry Kane didn't even earn an assist in the time and the punishment was complete with Mohamed Salah continuing to produce big numbers.

Harry Kane won't be irritating me for a few days at least, and the obvious Captain choice this week is Salah... Right?

However, I think Aston Villa are capable of making things a little awkward for Liverpool as they battle for manager Steven Gerrard and so I am going to go a different way again- I'll probably regret it by 3:30pm, but I am out on Saturday and so any punishment won't be felt until the games are in the books before Manchester United take the field.

So who am I going with? Check out my team later and you will see the angle played!


The top three clubs are all producing the best defensive numbers, even after Chelsea's difficult week, and so moving Reguilon is likely going to see those three clubs offering out the best options. However, I think Trent Alexander-Arnold has reached a price that is beyond what I can bring in, while Andrew Robertson has four Yellow Cards and could serve a suspension before the New Year.

Manchester City and Chelsea can't be trusted when it comes to the rotations, but the former have the fixtures to make serious ground and the latter have to be feeling they need to go back to basics after conceding six goals in their last two away games.

It is either a decision to move Nelson Semedo or I am going to look to bring in the Watford attacker I have mentioned being intrigued by a few weeks ago. The Watford fixture list eases from GW16 and even better is a quick look at the underlying numbers that they have been producing against the stronger opponents they have been facing.

Emmanuel Dennis and Josh King will both have their backers, although the latter potentially being on Penalties and the numbers since the win over Manchester United makes King the more appealing option as far as I am concerned.

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