It hasn't been the case very often over the years, but we have concluded Week 14 of the NFL season and have yet to determine even one of the PlayOff teams that will take part in the expanded post-season beginning next month.
With only one team receiving a Bye to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs in either Conference, I think games are going to matter to all right down to the wire and there are some huge games coming up in Week 15.
Covid issues are playing havoc with this sport as much as any other around North America and Europe and that means there could be huge swings in the spreads for all of the games coming up and will likely mean the best plan is to try and wait until late as possible before making your selections. I will be posting my Picks below, but it is something to consider going forward with the new Covid variant that is likely to rip through and cause havoc for players as much as it will for all of us.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: Covid issues are ramping up in the United States as much as anywhere in the world and it is having an affect on the sports being played. While the NBA is still very much in the early stages of their season, the pandemic is likely to have a real impact on the NFL with none of the PlayOff places locked up despite the fact we are heading into Week 15 of the 2021 season.
This is just the third time in over forty years that we have yet to see PlayOff berths confirmed for any team in the League at the end of Week 14, but things are soon going to be clearing up. Teams are hoping that they can avoid Covid and other injuries to position themselves for the post-season and this is a huge game on Thursday Night Football when two leading AFC West teams meet one another.
The Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) have won six in a row to move to the top of the Division, but they are only a game clear of the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) who have won the first of the two meetings between the teams. That means a win for the Chargers on Thursday will give them the inside track when it comes to winning this Division, although both teams are playing well enough to believe they can finish in the top seven in the AFC and be involved in the post-season.
In fact, at this stage I think the Chiefs and Chargers will both be targeting the Number 1 Seed and earning a Bye in the Wild Card Round of the expanded PlayOffs. That adds to the importance of this game and I think it is going to be a very close one.
Both teams are going to be missing key personnel on Thursday with players added to the Covid-19 list and injuries also having an impact in Week 15 of the season.
Offensive Line issues have reared up for the Los Angeles Chargers at a bad time of the season and it has left Justin Herbert exposed behind the backups that have come in. Rashawn Slater is the latest Offensive Lineman expected to miss out and that is a big blow for the Chargers who are already down a couple of players on this Line.
There is still a chance that Slater will suit up, while the Kansas City Chiefs could be without a key player on the other side of the ball with Chris Jones on the Covid-19 list too and another who will have his status cleared up before the game is scheduled to be played. It could be a key with Jones sparking the Kansas City pass rush that has helped the Chiefs pick up their level of performance on the Defensive side of the ball, the unit that has effectively been the reason they have been able to win six in a row.
I still expect the Chiefs to generate pressure on Justin Herbert whenever he is in obvious passing situations, but Los Angeles can counter with Austin Ekeler, who is expected to suit up. The Running Back will find some room behind this makeshift Offensive Line, but it is his ability to leak out of the backfield and offer a safety blanket for Herbert where Austin Ekeler can be most dangerous.
Staying in front of the chains will open up the play-book for the Los Angeles Chargers and the return of Keenan Allen means they should be able to make some big plays down the field. The Chiefs Secondary have played well thanks to the pressure the Defensive Line will get on Quarter Backs up front, but I think Justin Herbert has shown he can expose the Kansas City Defensive unit in the earlier win this season.
He was helped by the fact that the Chargers won the turnover battle by a convincing margin in the first meeting, but you have to believe Kansas City will be more careful this time. Patrick Mahomes is still trying to find his best form, but, like the Chargers, he can lean on the Running Backs to pound the ball on the ground and at least offer him more time to make his throws down the field.
The Chiefs Offensive Line have sometimes struggled in pass protection and the Los Angeles Chargers have a fierce pass rush of their own, one that will feel they can get to Patrick Mahomes if he is having to hold onto the ball in third and long spots. The Quarter Back can scramble away from some of the pressure and Mahomes is a dangerous thrower on the run, but the Chargers Secondary have played well and I think they can make some plays to slow down the visiting Divisional rivals.
Los Angeles have won on their last two visits to Arrowhead Stadium, but they have lost seven home games in succession to the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, the Chargers pushed the Chiefs all the way in a narrow home loss in Overtime in 2020 and I do think they are an improved team now. The Chargers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six against Divisional rivals, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.
Andy Reid has had considerable success against Divisional rivals since arriving as Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs and I will admit I hate opposing Patrick Mahomes, but I think the Chargers can keep this one competitive. They look to match up pretty well with Kansas City and I think the potential absence of Chris Jones would be a massive blow for the Chiefs.
Los Angeles can struggle for consistency, but I think they are worth backing with the points.
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The NFL is beginning to be hugely impacted by Covid-19 issues and it has meant that Week 15 has seen the scheduled moved around at the last minute. Instead of two games on Saturday, there are games scheduled to be played from Saturday through Tuesday in Week 15 as we head towards the PlayOffs and with games beginning to take on incredible importance.
There is a surviving game on Saturday and that comes from Indianapolis as the Colts (7-6) continue to chase a Wild Card berth in the PlayOffs. The AFC South looks to be beyond them with four games left as they are two behind the Tennessee Titans, who have swept the Divisional series between the teams, but the Colts are firmly in the mix when it comes to taking one of the three Wild Card spots that are available in the Conference this season.
The Colts will be hosting the New England Patriots (9-4) who are almost certainly going to be playing post-season Football having missed out last season in the first without Tom Brady. In fact this has been an even more special season for the Patriots and there is every chance that they can finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Conference, although the next two weeks may tell us all we need to know as they face the Buffalo Bills after the visit to Indianapolis.
On Thursday night the Kansas City Chiefs became the first team in the AFC to reach ten wins for the season, but the Patriots will feel they can do the same even as the slight underdog. They are coming in off a Bye Week and you know Bill Belichick will have had the team well prepared for the game, and the Patriots have looked really good on both sides of the ball with rookie Quarter Back Mac Jones perhaps the best to come out of the last Draft class, at least in 2021.
Both of these teams will be confident in their Offensive Line and will be looking for them to lead the way in the game, although New England will be without Damien Harris for this one. Even then, the Patriots have shown they can keep the ball pounding on the ground and I do think they will have success against the Colts considering what we have seen from the Indianapolis Defensive Line prior to them heading into their own Bye Week.
There is an outside chance that Harris will suit up, but Rhamondre Stevenson has shown his own capabilities with the ball in his hand and I do think the Patriots will be able to move the chains on the ground. That should make things a little easier for Mac Jones, who will be asked to throw the ball having only attempted three passes in the win over the Buffalo Bills in the Week 13 snowstorm.
Being able to run the ball against the Colts means teams have perhaps not tested the Secondary as much as they would do usually, but Indianapolis do have strength in the back end of their Defensive unit. They can win their battles if Mac Jones is left in obvious passing situations, although I do think New England will have successes with the ball in hand.
The Patriots may be able to perform well even without their lead Running Back, but the Indianapolis Colts will go as far as Jonathan Taylor can carry them. This has been a special season for Taylor already, but the Running Back has also given plenty of credit to the Colts Offensive Line and the weakness of the New England Defensive unit has been on the Line and stopping the run with any consistency.
This should be music to the ears of the Indianapolis Colts and Jonathan Taylor can have a very big outing as he pounds the rock on the ground. He has also shown a real ability to break out of the backfield and make sure he catches the ball in space an I think Taylor will be able to have a big game for the Indianapolis Colts as they look to produce a statement win.
Carson Wentz should have some time behind this Offensive Line, but he has been inconsistent as a passer this season and has been guilty of some terrible mistakes that have proved costly. Like the Colts, the New England Patriots are very happy with the performance level of the Secondary and they have been tough to throw the ball against, but Carson Wentz will be looking to get the ball out of his hands into his skill players hands as soon as possible and the Colts could have more success than the Patriots are used to giving up.
The Patriots have dominated recent meetings against the Indianapolis Colts, although those were before Tom Brady departed and since Peyton Manning left the Colts.
New England have been money at the window this season too and I do think they are a dangerous underdog, but Frank Reich has been known for preparing the Indianapolis Colts very well out of a Bye Week. The home team can match up with the Patriots and I think Jonathan Taylor can do enough to give them the edge.
It will be close and I would not be surprised if there are long drives in this one with both teams looking to pound the ball on the ground and put their Quarter Backs in strong positions to try and take advantage of spaces in the Secondary. Mac Jones has really played well, while Carson Wentz can be guilty of throwing an errant pass at bad times, but my feeling is that this game means more to Indianapolis and they can use their powerful Offensive Line to pave the way for a narrow win.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The top of the AFC is tightly packed together, but we are in Week 15 and there is little room for error. A game that was supposed to be played on Saturday has been moved to Monday afternoon thanks to a Covid outbreak in the Cleveland Browns (7-6) locker room.
With many players vaccinated that have tested, Cleveland were given an opportunity to move this game a couple of days in the hope that some key players are able to return. At this time they will be going in with their third string Quarter Back, Nick Mullens, but Baker Mayfield has hinted that he feels fine and is hoping he will be able to suit up.
Up to 20 players are on the Covid list, but at least the majority of the Offensive Line and Nick Chubb are available for Cleveland. That will give them a chance to play the game in the way they would have wanted, even at full strength, and I think the Browns will believe they can move the chains.
Cleveland are facing the Las Vegas Raiders (6-7) who have not been playing well in recent weeks and are now in a desperate position as they look to get back on track. Another loss on Monday will likely mean the PlayOffs are beyond them, but the Raiders will be firmly in the mix with a victory and there was some frustration that this game has been rescheduled rather than forfeited.
The Raiders have at least shown some power on the Defensive Line in recent games, but in the main it has been an issue for them when it comes to stopping the run. That is going to be music to the ears of Nick Chubb and the Browns and it will certainly be important for them if they are going to give their backup Quarter Back an opportunity to win the game.
It feels like Las Vegas do match up pretty well with the Browns on this side of the ball- if they can slow them down up front, Cleveland don't really have the consistency in the passing game to feel they can expose some of the holes the Raiders have in the Secondary. Nick Mullens is capable of having some success, but Jarvis Landry looks set to miss out and that means the Browns are relying on Receivers that have been nothing less than inconsistent.
Cleveland have struggled Offensively since their blowout win over the Cincinnati Bengals in early November and that has to be a worry for a team that could be down a number of players on this side of the ball. As bad as the recent results have been for the Raiders, they have been competitive Defensively and will give Derek Carr and the Offensive unit an opportunity for an upset on the road.
Earning that will not be easy as Derek Carr continues to flash his talent, but too many times has been guilty of some bad mistakes that has Raiders fans wondering if they need to move the Quarter Back on. Rumours are that he could be traded at the end of the season in what could be a fast moving Quarter Back situation for many teams around the League, but for now Derek Carr has to try and lead his team to the post-season again.
He will be wise to lean on Josh Jacobs at Running Back considering some of the issues the Cleveland Browns have had in stopping the run in recent games. Josh Jacobs is a very strong Running Back and has also shown he can be a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, while establishing him here and keeping the Raiders in front of the chains will be key to the outcome of the game.
Derek Carr will then be given the time to make his plays down the field, although he is still missing Darren Waller. The passing game has struggled without the top Tight End and ever since Henry Ruggs was released it has felt easier to defend the Raiders.
I do think the Browns will be able to do that too with their Secondary playing pretty well, but Jacobs can get Las Vegas moving on the ground and that should help them remain competitive in this game.
Las Vegas won here on the road last season and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as the road underdog. Cleveland are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog too and I do think the Las Vegas Raiders can keep this one close with the points in their hand.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: Only one team in the NFC has been officially eliminated from playing in the post-season, but the Chicago Bears (4-9) will need a festive miracle to move back into the top seven in the Conference. Another loss on Monday Night Football will almost certainly be the end for the Bears, but even winning out would mean finishing with a losing record and needing plenty of help to return to the PlayOffs.
It has been a difficult season for the Bears with injuries and inconsistencies a major problem for the team to deal with. Matt Nagy was almost fired during the season, if reports are to be believed anyway, but the Head Coach is certainly on the hot seat and I would be very surprised if he is still in that position on January 11th 2022.
The Bears might not be in contention to make the post-season with any reality, but they can play spoiler for others and facing a Divisional rival should mean plenty of motivation for the home team. The fans will be here in big numbers in Chicago as they host the Minnesota Vikings (6-7) who snapped a two game losing run by holding onto a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14 and who are now half a game behind the top seven places in the Conference.
They will be playing the Chicago Bears twice before the end of the regular season, but Minnesota have to really win both of those games with tougher games against the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers to also negotiate.
Covid issues are plaguing teams around the NFL and that is the case for both the Bears and the Vikings, although it feels like it is a bigger problem for Chicago considering the injuries that have also decimated their team.
The Bears are also coming in off a big, emotional effort against the Green Bay Packers and you do have to wonder if that was their last hurrah in what has been a very difficult season. David Montgomery looks like he could be missing for the Bears, but I still think they will have some success moving the ball on the ground against the Minnesota Vikings, especially with Justin Fields set to play again at Quarter Back.
Justin Fields made some big time throws in the loss to the Packers in Week 14 and he will be encouraged to pick up from where he left off. If the Bears can establish the run, it will mean the Vikings pass rush is perhaps not able to make the big impact on the game as they can whenever Fields is in obvious passing situations.
There are some issues in the Minnesota Secondary that could see Justin Fields make some big plays again, but the Offensive Line has been an issue all season and it is very important for the Chicago Bears to stay in this game and not have to move away from the run.
Running the ball will be the main priority for the Minnesota Vikings too and I think Dalvin Cook will have another big outing having sparked the win over the Steelers. The Bears have had their Defensive Line hit by injuries and the Vikings Offensive Line will believe they can bully their opponents up front and that should see Cook come away with another big game.
It also eases the pressure on Kirk Cousins, who is quietly having a strong season at Quarter Back, while opening up play-action and seeing him able to hit the Receivers down the field. The Bears have not been able to generate much of a pass rush with the injuries on the Defensive Line so Kirk Cousins should have plenty of time to make his throws, while the Bears Secondary can only hold onto to their Receivers for so long.
This is a really big spread, but the Minnesota Vikings look to be the right side to back.
I expect them to have an Offensive balance that may be missing for the Chicago Bears, while Kirk Cousins should be a little more consistent than Justin Fields.
The Vikings have been a terrible team to back at the window, but the Bears are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog. Chicago have not been competitive off of blow out losses either and I think that will show up here with the Vikings moving back to 0.500 and keeping their PlayOff hopes alive at the expense of a Divisional rival that will likely be making some big changes in the off-season.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: Three teams from the NFC West are in with a realistic chance of making the PlayOff, but the outsiders are the Seattle Seahawks (5-8) who are running out of time to turn this season around. Injuries have really impacted the Seahawks and they have to win out and hope for some help from other teams if they are going to finish in the top seven.
They head to Los Angeles to take on the Rams (9-4) who will be looking to overtake the slumping Arizona Cardinals and take over as the leaders of the Division, which will offer at least one home game in the PlayOff. Even now, the Rams may feel they can chase down the Green Bay Packers who lead the Conference with eleven wins and this is a pivotal game for both teams involved.
And that makes the Covid issues that have impacted both teams even more troublesome- the game was supposed to be played on Sunday, but the extra time has been granted by the NFL to ensure both teams can be as healthy as possible. If the game had been played on Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams would have been down multiple players, but things have changed as we reach Tuesday and now it is the Seahawks are likely to be facing more of an impact from the positive tests running through the roster.
Some fans will be upset and that goes beyond the fanbases of both teams considering the impact on the post-season this game has the potential to have. However, the NFL is trying to do the best for all and without having games cancelled and so the situation is what it is.
This has not been a good match up for Seattle in recent seasons when at their strongest and I do think they are going to need to have a huge performance to even be competitive. Tyler Lockett looks like he could miss out and that is going to give Russell Wilson a major problem moving the ball with any consistency.
The Seahawks are unlikely to be able to run the ball very well against this Rams Defensive Line and they are without their top Running Back, Alex Collins, anyway. Even with Collins, the Los Angeles Rams pride themselves on making teams one-dimensional against them and leaving the Seahawks in third and long spots only exposes a vulnerable Offensive Line with the quality pass rush the Rams will bring to the field.
Teams have been able to have some success when throwing into the Rams Secondary, but Jalen Ramsey is expected to suit up and the Seahawks potentially missing Tyler Lockett should make them 'easier' to deal with. DK Metcalf has been a little banged up, although I don't want to disrespect the ability Russell Wilson has to make plays.
Even then, the Los Angeles Rams will feel their Defensive unit can do enough to slow down the Seattle Seahawks and their own Offense will feel they can move the ball. Matthew Stafford has been having a strong season and has bounced back from a slump as he has led the Rams to back to back wins, and the Rams will go as far as the Quarter Back can take them.
It has not been a season where they have had a lot of success running the ball and the Los Angeles Rams will not find much room up front from an improving Seattle Defensive Line. However, I do think Sean McVay is able to scheme a different way to run the ball with little screens and quick passes able to put the team in front of the chains, while Matthew Stafford should be able to expose the Seattle Secondary which has had its issues all season.
A stuttering pass rush should mean Matthew Stafford has time in the pocket and Odell Beckham Jr is set to suit up having had a negative Covid test in the time between the original schedule time of this game and the Tuesday kick off.
The Rams are 7-3 against the Seattle Seahawks since Sean McVay took over as Head Coach and they dominated the Seahawks on the road earlier this season. I think they will be able to make the plays to pull away in this one too and they will be back on track to win the NFC West.
Russell Wilson is one of the best Quarter Backs in the NFL and he has a very strong record as an underdog, but this is not a great match up for him. That should show up here with a healthier looking Rams roster capable of winning this one by a Touchdown or more on the night.
Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The NFL landscape has always been one that can change very quickly, but the new Covid variant is one that has hit teams very hard, very quickly. The Washington Football Team (6-7) have been given a couple of extra days to try and get through the outbreak which has decimated the roster, but I am not sure that is enough time for the team to be ready to compete.
In Week 13 the Washington Football Team entered a game with the Dallas Cowboys having won four in a row and looking like they may still have an impact on the NFC East race, but a loss meant the Wild Card positions were their best bet to reach the PlayOff. That is still the case in Week 15, but the Football Team will be feeling the pressure with the top eight teams in the Conference all holding at least seven wins and a loss on Tuesday would put the Football Team behind yet another team.
The Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) do not have the same issues as the Washington Football Team, but the extra time may have benefited them with the likelihood that Jalen Hurts will be able to return at Quarter Back. There are still some questions about Hurts and his ability to be a starting Quarter Back in the NFL, but this should be a good place to return when you think of the huge amount of starters the Washington Football Team are set to be without.
Running the ball efficiently has sparked the Eagles season and the feeling is that they will be able to do that here considering the players missing on the Washington Defensive Line. Jalen Hurts is well backed up by the Running Backs on the Eagles roster and this is a key for Philadelphia to ensure there is not too much pressure on their Quarter Back to have to make plays on his own.
The passing game has been inconsistent to say the least, but again you have to point out the favourable match up that is likely going to be in front of the Eagles.
Moving the ball on the Offensive side is going to be another challenge for the Washington Football Team who have both Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen on the Covid list. It is still a mystery as to the availability of either and that could mean the Football Team going in with a third string Quarter Back who could be without the likes of Logan Thomas and Terry McLaurin.
Garrett Gilbert may be given the chance having at least played in the NFL before, but it is a huge ask of a backup playing in a tough environment like this one. The match up may have been easier if facing a Defensive Line that struggles to stop the run, but that is not the case against the Philadelphia Eagles and Gilbert may be asked to try and dink and dunk his way down the field.
He should be given some protection, although the Offensive Line could be down starters too, but Gilbert will be throwing into a Secondary that is capable of making plays.
Turnovers feel like they could play an important part in this game and that is where the Eagles may have the edge over the Football Team.
Philadelphia are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight in the series with this Divisional rival, and these teams are going to be meeting twice before the regular season is completed.
Ron Rivera does guide the Football Team well when they are an underdog, but the Bye Week might have been a struggle and Washington are 1-4 against the spread in their last five with rest behind them.
The Eagles are another who have struggled out of a Bye Week, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite and I think they can take advantage of the injury hit Divisional rival as they move ahead of the Football Team in the race for a Wild Card spot in the NFC.
MY PICKS: Los Angeles Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 13 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Las Vegas Raiders + 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)
Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)
Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)
Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)
Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)
Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)
Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Season 2021: 53-55-1, - 13.50 Units (218 Units Staked, - 6.19% Yield)
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