The Bowl season continues and this is going to be where I place the Picks from the games to come over the next week.
Guessing motivations and working out Covid problems is a test for us all, but I do like some of the Games we are due to see.
Army Black Knights vs Missouri Tigers Pick: Most teams will have been chasing Bowl Games that generate bigger headlines than the Armed Forces Bowl and that is especially the case for team playing in the Power 5 Conferences. With that in mind, it is perhaps not a major surprise that a couple of key skill players are going to be missing for the Missouri Tigers (6-6), but this is the first Bowl Game played by many on the Tigers roster.
It should mean there is plenty of motivation on their side of the field, but they are facing the Army Black Knights (8-4) who will be looking to bounce back and redeem themselves for losing to the Navy Midshipmen earlier this month. The Black Knights won at least ten games in 2017 and 2018, but they won't match the nine wins secured last season without winning this one and Army will be a team that will be focused at all times.
I would expect Army to bounce back and show they are much better than they were in the defeat to Navy, while they have enjoyed considerable success in the Armed Forces Bowl when asked to play in this game. The Black Knights will also feel they can recover from a poor day running the ball with the opponent they are facing in this one, although the Missouri Defensive Line did close the regular season looking stronger at the line of scrimmage.
Ultimately you can't ignore that the Tigers have struggled to defend the run all season and that should see the Black Knights open up some holes up front. It is very important to do so with Army having an inconsistent passing game that will only have an impact if they are able to run the ball and I do think it is possible for them to have a good time moving the ball.
However, it will be the Army Defensive unit which may be the strength of the team in this Bowl Game and especially as Missouri are going to be without Tyler Badie and Conor Bazelak. Tyler Badie is the strong Running Back that is heading to the NFL Draft and so has opted to miss this game, while Conor Bazelak is the starting Quarter Back, but the Tigers have decided to give Brady Cook a chance to build his experience leading the team.
If Badie was playing for the Tigers, you would think they could establish the run in this one, but it may be more difficult without a player who is hopefully going to be playing Pro Football next season. The Tigers should still have some success, but the Black Knights Defensive Line have largely been solid against the run and I think that will put some pressure on Brady Cook to make his plays through the air.
Brady Cook should be well protected by the Missouri Offensive Line, but the Army Defensive unit is one that has been a key in the eight wins secured this season and who held Navy to just 17 points in the loss last time out. I have to accept that a SEC school will have capable players of making big plays and so Missouri could have success, but Army look like they have the edge in the game and can grind the Tigers down for an important win.
Missouri are without their top two players on the Offensive side of the ball and that is the main reason they have been set as the underdog, but I think that is the right position for this Bowl Game. They are just 2-9 against the spread in their last eleven games facing a team with a winning record, while the Tigers have not covered in their last four games against non-Conference opponents.
The Black Knights have covered in their last four following a straight up loss, and they are also 4-1 against the spread in the last five Bowl Games played. There are a couple of historical trends that favour Army in this one too with Military teams coming off a straight up loss as a favourite covering six straight Bowl Games.
Those Military schools are also 6-2 against the spread in the last eight Armed Forces Bowls and I think the Army Black Knights will hammer Missouri on the ground and take advantage of inexperienced skill players that the Tigers will be using on the Offensive side of the ball.
North Texas Mean Green vs Miami (OH) Redhawks Pick: The Frisco Football Classic has been formed this season to give more schools a chance of playing a Bowl Game after the number of eligible teams that made it. After the Covid issues of the last twelve months, it is only right that the likes of North Texas Mean Green (6-6) and Miami (OH) Redhawks (6-6) an opportunity to finish the season with a winning record.
This is going to feel like a home game for the Mean Green who are looking to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2018. They have won five in a row to recover from a disappointing start to the season and that means North Texas will be entering the game with a lot of confidence and momentum behind them.
Winning a Bowl Game is a huge achievement for schools like North Texas and they are going to be very motivated to do that with the crowd likely to be firmly behind them. However, there has to be a lot of respect for the Miami Redhawks who have won five of their last eight games and suffered the three defeats by a combined four points.
Brett Gabbert has been in really good form for the Redhawks at Quarter Back and he is going to be very important for the favourites if they are going to win this game. Miami cannot really rely on being able to run the ball as they would have liked and that is going to put more pressure on Gabbert, but he has shown he can handle the workload on his arm.
The Quarter Back will have to be aware of the kind of pass rush that Mean Green have been able to generate and being in third and long may see some of the pressure get to him, but Brett Gabbert has a strong supporting cast who will feel they can win their battles on the outside. It won't be easy against the Mean Green Secondary which has also ramped up their levels on this winning run that has taken North Texas into a Bowl Game, while I also think the key for North Texas is to try and limit the amount of possessions that Gabbert and the Miami Redhawks have.
What is the best way to do that? Control the clock by pounding the rock and the Mean Green are more than capable of being able to establish the run in this one. The winning run has come about thanks to an impressive Offensive Line paving the way for the likes of DeAndre Torrey who has had his best season for the Mean Green with over 1200 yards on the ground.
As the regular season wore on, the Miami Redhawks gave up almost 200 yards per game on the ground in their last three games and that has to be highly encouraging for North Texas. The Offensive Line have also been very good at protecting the Quarter Back, but the key for the Mean Green is bullying the Redhawks Defensive Line and making sure they do not need to pass too many times and get the Miami pass rush into play.
Turnovers are likely to have a big impact on the game, but I like the way North Texas have been able to look after the ball of late. The Secondary may feel they can force an Interception or two and it will be important for the North Texas Running Backs to hold onto the ball with the Redhawks likely to be ripping at the hands to pull it away.
The Redhawks were strong at home this season, but struggled on the road and this is going to feel like a road game for them. Miami are just 2-5 against the spread in the last seven when being set as the favourite and I do think they are going to have a tough time dealing with the confident North Texas Mean Green.
North Texas have lost their last three Bowl Games in blowouts, which is a concern, but they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the underdog. As long as they can remain focused on running the ball, the Mean Green can cover here.
Florida Gators vs UCF Knights Pick: Things really fell apart for the Florida Gators (6-6) in the 2021 season and they barely finished eligible for a Bowl Game, while a decision was made to fire Head Coach Dan Mullen despite the fact he had led the team to a 29-9 record before this season. Some will be surprised by the decision, but the Gators have not really impressed over the last thirteen months and it is Billy Napier who will be tasked to rejuvenate the school.
The former Louisiana Head Coach will not be taking charge of this Bowl Game though and it will be up to the former Coaching staff to guide Florida. Against most opponents I would really be questioning the motivation of a group that will be wondering what the future holds for them when the new Head Coach comes in, but this is a State rivalry game and Florida will not want to lose bragging rights.
Florida will be facing the UCF Knights (8-4) who have already secured a winning record for a fifth season in a row, even if some of the lustre of the campaign would have been lost in seeing the Cincinnati Bearcats reach the College Football PlayOff. Most Knights fans believe their team should have been given the same opportunity when finishing unbeaten in the 2017 season.
The Knights certainly feel they are going into the Bowl Game with more momentum than the Florida Gators and Mikey Keene has played well in relief of Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back. In fact Gabriel is leaving the Knights to play for the UCLA Bruins next season and Keene will cement his place as the starter if he can lead UCF to their first ever win over the Gators.
It will be a challenge for the Knights on the Offensive side of the ball and it should be remembered that they are facing a SEC Defense in this Bowl Game. As well as Mikey Keene has played and as strong as Isaiah Bowser has been at Running Back, establishing Offensive consistency against a SEC school will be a real test for the American Athletic school.
Even then, I do think the Gators may not be as focused as they would have been if this was a regular season game and that should give the UCF Knights an opportunity to move the ball. The Knights Offensive Line have really played well and they have been able to establish the run in recent games, and you have to accept it is a possibility that the Gators may not be willing to dig deep at the line of scrimmage to control the Knights.
That could especially be the case with Zachary Carter opting out of this Bowl Game and preparing for the NFL Draft and that is a big loss on the Florida Defensive Line.
On the other side of the ball, Emory Jones will be leading the Gators at Quarter Back, but he is leaving the team at the end of this game and will be playing College Football elsewhere in 2022. Once again I would have to question whether Jones and the current Coaching staff are that focused on a Bowl Game that is being played before Christmas Day, although the Knights Secondary struggled down the stretch and you would expect Jones to have a decent outing.
Ultimately I am questioning the motivation of the Gators after an underwhelming 2021 season- Emory Jones may be able to make some plays, but it might not be a big surprise if another player is given some extra reps in live Football experience with a look ahead to the next year.
This feels like a big enough spread to back the UCF Knights, even if they have not been the best underdog to back. However, Florida have failed to cover in their last five as the favourite and all of the uncertainty around the team after Dan Mullen's firing could leave them as a vulnerable favourite, even with State bragging rights to consider.
Florida have also failed to cover in their last six games against non-Conference opponents and I will take the points on offer here.
Bowl State Cardinals vs Georgia State Panthers Pick: They are going to need a win in the Bowl Game to reach the seven win mark they secured last season, but even with that in mind it has been an underwhelming season for the Ball State Cardinals (6-6). Finishing with a losing record would be a real blow, but it also a position that has become familiar to fans of Ball State having only ended a six year run without a winning record in 2020.
Head Coach Mike Neu won't comfort himself with that fact and he will be looking to guide Ball State to back to back Bowl wins, which would be a major achievement. They have lost three of their last five games in the regular season and the MAC teams have been having a hard time in the Bowl season so far, which is perhaps the reason the Cardinals are the underdog in this one.
They are facing the Georgia State Panthers (7-5) who have had winning seasons in four of the last five years and who also won a Bowl Game in 2020. In the recent winning years under Head Coach Shawn Elliot, the Panthers have yet to surpass seven wins so there is plenty of motivation on the Panthers sideline.
Unlike Ball State, the Panthers have built momentum through the regular season and they have won six of their last seven games, including the last three in succession. Confidence can be very important at this time of the season and the Panthers should be feeling really good about themselves.
The two teams will be looking to approach this game in different ways- Georgia State like to run the ball, while the Ball State Cardinals are much more comfortable throwing the ball.
The line of scrimmage could end up being a very important part of the game and that is where the Panthers Offensive Line can have the edge over the Ball State Defensive Line. The Panthers have been able to establish the run very effectively and at the end of the regular season it looked the Cardinals had been worn down up front.
They were giving up over 5 yards per carry down the stretch and I think the Panthers are going to take advantage by hammering the ball right down the Ball State throat. Keeping the team in third and short should make it easier for the Panthers to move the ball with consistency and there are spaces in the Ball State Secondary which should mean Darren Grainger should be able to use play-action to get the ball moving down the field.
Running the ball has been the main feature of the Georgia State Offensive Line, but they are also very proud of the level being produced by the Defensive Line when it comes to shutting down the run. Forcing the Cardinals into becoming one-dimensional will give Georgia State a huge advantage in this game, especially as it will allow the Panthers to unleash a strong pass rush that has been very efficient at making plays behind the line of scrimmage.
Drew Plitt did not have the best ending to the season, but I do think he will have some success with the issues that the Panthers Secondary have had in defending the pass. Being able to avoid the pass rush from third and long on a consistent basis is difficult though and I think the Georgia State Panthers are the right team in this Bowl Game.
Ball State have played well as the underdog, but MAC teams have been struggling with the improved level of competition in December. They are also facing a very confident Georgia State team that have plenty of momentum behind them and who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the favourite.
It is a big spread, but I think running the ball will give the Panthers the edge and I expect the pass rush to make enough plays to swing this Bowl Game in their favour as they reach eight wins for the first time in school history.
Western Michigan Broncos vs Nevada Wolf Pack Pick: If this was a regular season game, you would have likely had the Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4) as a relatively big favourite to beat the Western Michigan Broncos (7-5). It would have been a competitive game, but I think the Wolf Pack would have had too much, but things have changed around this Bowl Game and I think the Broncos can take advantage of the situation as they look to win their first post-season game since 2015.
There are some concerns about the Broncos- the teams playing in Bowl Games out of the MAC have been terrible this season and they vastly underachieved in the Conference. Going into the season as favourites to reach the Championship Game in the MAC West, the Western Michigan Broncos only finished 4-4 in Conference play and bottom of the Division.
However, the team did win two of their last three games to become Bowl eligible and Western Michigan also upset the Pittsburgh Panthers who ended up winning the ACC Championship.
The Broncos will be facing a Nevada Wolf Pack team who have won at least seven games in each of the last four seasons and they have closed the season with wins in two of their last three Bowl Games. However, the Wolf Pack are going to be missing a huge amount of the players who have propelled them to eight wins this season, although they fell a little short of the leading teams in the Mountain West Conference.
Carson Strong is the biggest absentee on the team and the Quarter Back has declared that he will enter the NFL Draft and feels his best preparation for that is to avoid taking any unnecessary punishment in this Bowl Game. It will be up to Nate Cox to take over at Quarter Back, but he will be missing a number of skill players on the Offensive unit and you do have to wonder if that will be an issue with the chemistry of the team facing this Broncos Defensive unit.
It has to be considered that the Western Michigan Defense would be one that seemingly matches up well with the Wolf Pack even if all of the players were available for this game for the latter. They have a Defensive Line that has struggled to shut down the run, but a Secondary that has been able to protect against the pass.
Nevada are a team that has preferred to throw the ball though having had issues opening up holes up front and with Carson Strong they have been able to overcome third and long spots. It may be more difficult for Nate Cox and especially as he will be throwing behind an Offensive Line which has not protected the Quarter Back as well as they would have liked.
I do think the Broncos can get after Cox, while they have a pretty good Offensive unit of their own which should be able to have success moving the ball. The line of scrimmage is an area where they have excelled on this side of the ball and I think Western Michigan will be able to establish the run against the Wolf Pack Defensive Line and that should open things up for Kaleb Eleby who has thrown 21 Touchdown passes with just 5 Interceptions this seasosn.
The Wolf Pack Secondary has played pretty well down the stretch, but that may also be down to the fact that the Defensive Line have not been able to stop the run. I think it is a real possibility for Western Michigan to control the clock and then make some big plays with their pass rush to pull clear of Nevada.
Nevada are without Head Coach Jay Norvell who has accepted a job at Colorado State, but their new Head Coach will not be on the sideline for this one. Those players who will be returning next season may be a little unsure about the future and I think it is another distraction for a team without so many leading players.
It can't be ignored how well Nevada have played as an underdog and this is a big spread, but the Broncos have picked up their level when playing better teams. The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games against a team with a winning record and I think they can find the plays to cover the spread.
Auburn Tigers vs Houston Cougars Pick: They finished with a perfect record in the American Athletic Conference regular season, but the Houston Cougars (11-2) bookended their campaign with defeats. The loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats means they were not able to play spoiler for a team that will be playing in the College Football PlayOff, but they have finally earned their first winning season under Head Coach Dana Holgorsen in his third year in Houston and the Cougars have already secured their most wins in a single season since 2015.
This is a difficult Bowl Game for the Houston Cougars as they paired up to compete with the Auburn Tigers (6-6) from the SEC, although the Tigers had a tough end to the season with four straight losses.
There has to be some motivation in the Auburn locker room as they are bidding to avoid a first losing record since the 2012 season, but the Tigers have lost their last two Bowl Games and there is little doubt that they wanted to be competing at a much more prestigious post-season game.
Without that you cannot be surprised that some players have decided they are going to skip this Bowl Game as they begin to prepare for life in the NFL with Draft preparation the focus. Bo Nix has also announced that he will be leaving Auburn in the transfer portal and that means they are going to have to give the ball to TJ Finley who has not been able to oust Nix as starter in the regular season after coming in from the LSU Tigers.
The Tigers do play at a higher level than the Cougars and I think that makes it tougher to put the numbers together and try and piece together how the game will go. The Houston Defensive unit have played really well at the American Athletic level, but they are going to have to take another step up in level.
However, I do think the Cougars can have some success when you think of the troubles Auburn have had with their Offensive Line. That unit will also be down a player preparing to move into the pro Ranks with Brodarius Hamm out at Right Tackle and that could be a problem against the Houston pass rush.
TJ Finley may have to do the majority of the work behind Center with the running game not really working as Auburn would like and I do think Houston can make enough plays on the line of scrimmage to at least try and keep Auburn from scoring Touchdown after Touchdown.
Forcing Punts and Field Goal efforts would be a tremendous win for the Houston Cougars, but their own Offensive unit will be under pressure to show they can compete with a tough SEC Defensive unit. Clayton Tune has had a good, solid season at Quarter Back for the Cougars, but it may be up to him to keep the Houston chains moving with little support expected from the run game that had struggled down the stretch.
Like the Houston Defensive Line, the Auburn Defensive Line has not only clamped down on the run, but they have also been able to dial up a fierce pass rush. The difference between the units is the holes that have been evident in the Secondary and I do think Clayton Tune will find a way to out-duel TJ Finley, while the motivation has to be questioned when it comes to Auburn despite the fact they are looking to avoid a first losing season in ten years.
Houston are going to be massively motivated to show they can step up their level again next season and they are looking for a first Bowl win since 2017. The last two have been embarrassing performances from the Cougars, but they look strong and the absences on the Tigers roster has to give the underdog and edge.
The Cougars are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the underdog on a neutral field, while Auburn are 1-4 against the spread in their last five Bowl Games. I do think the Tigers are better than their end of season suggested, but those losses piled up and I am not sure the team is going to be as ready to compete as Houston who will want to underline the successful 2021 season.
Louisville Cardinals vs Air Force Falcons Pick: This is a very important Bowl Game for the Louisville Cardinals (6-6) who are looking to avoid a third losing season in four on Tuesday. Anyone who thinks they just have to turn up to win will be in for a surprise though as they face the Air Force Falcons (9-3) who will be chasing a second season in three in which they have won double digit games.
The layers are finding it hard to separate these teams, but much is going to depend on the line of scrimmage and which of the teams is best placed to control that. Ultimately it is the key to the game on both sides of the ball and my feeling is that the Air Force Falcons have a genuine edge over the Cardinals.
Momentum may be with the Falcons too as they finished the regular season with three wins in a row, while the Cardinals have lost three of their last four. Most worrying for Louisville fans attending this Bowl Game is watching their team and seeing how they deal with the triple-option after allowing in-State rivals Kentucky to pile up the yards on the ground in the final regular season game.
It has been a struggle for the Louisville Defensive Line to clamp down on the run all season, but there was a real sign of wear and tear down the stretch in the regular season, culminating in giving up over 360 rushing yards to the Kentucky Wildcats. The yards being allowed on the ground have come at a healthy clip too and I really do feel the Falcons are going to be able to hammer Louisville hard on the ground.
Air Force run a system in which they will not throw the ball very much, but I don't think that will matter to the Falcons who can pound the rock all day and give themselves every chance of winning this Bowl Game.
Running the ball has been a real feature of the way Louisville have been playing down the stretch and they have produced some big numbers on the ground thanks to the quality of dual-threat Quarter Back Malik Cunningham behind Center. Barring an injury, I have to expect Cunningham to pick up the 32 yards needed to produce 1000 rushing yards for the season, but even with a talented Quarter Back it will be tough to run with consistency against the Falcons Defensive Line.
The Cardinals have some strong numbers that have to be respected and I think they will have some success on the ground, but Malik Cunningham may need to open the lanes by making some big throws early in this one. It would be best if they can get in front of the chains, if only to make sure they are not dealing with the effective pass rush that the Falcons have been generating down the stretch, but there should be a touch more balance about their play-calling than what we will see from the Falcons.
Extra possessions could be important to the winner of this Bowl Game and I think it will be a competitive game, but one where I like the production of the Air Force Falcons at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Air Force have been a very good team to back at the window when it comes to Bowl Games, playing non-Conference opponents and when they have been set as the underdog.
Louisville have also been very good when it comes to the spread in Bowl Games, but they are 11-27-1 against the spread in their last thirty-nine games against a team with a winning record. They are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven neutral field games and Louisville are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games against Mountain West schools.
This is not a huge amount of points at all, but I think the underdog can be backed with the Falcons Offensive Line likely to pave the way for a huge game on the ground.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: There is no love lost between Mike Leach and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6), but the current Coaching staff will only be focusing on trying to help Texas Tech finish with a winning record. They have had five seasons in succession without doing that, while the obvious added motivation of playing their former Head Coach may not be lost on the fans.
Unfortunately it has been a long time since Mike Leach left Lubbock and that means the players may not be as ready to get one over on the one time Head Coach of the Red Raiders. And that is quite different for Leach himself who will be bringing in his Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-5) knowing he has secured a winning record in his second season with the team.
That alone will not be enough for the Head Coach and I do think he is going to be looking for his 'Air Raid' Offense to really put the Red Raiders in a tough position throughout this game. I have little doubt that Mike Leach would like to remind the Texas Tech fans of the successes he had when Head Coach at the school and there has been enough to like about his Bulldogs team to be encouraged.
Mississippi State ended the season with four wins in their last six games, which is in complete contrast to the Texas Tech Red Raiders who have lost four of their last five. The Red Raiders are also going to be playing under an interim Head Coach, one that has decided he will be moving on as soon as this Bowl Game has been played, and there is every feeling of this being a blow out.
As the season wound down, the Bulldogs did begin to run the ball with some efficiency, but no one will be surprised to read that the 'Air Raid' has been the most productive way for the Bulldogs to move the ball. That means allowing Will Rogers to step back and rip the ball around the field and the Quarter Back has really played well for the Bulldogs and I think he can have one more big game before the end of 2021.
There are some significant holes in the Texas Tech Secondary, but worse is that the Red Raiders have been able to generate little pass rush pressure down the stretch. Giving Will Rogers time and a Head Coach with a score to settle sounds like a bad combination for the Red Raiders and I am impressed that the Quarter Back has been one that has avoided turning the ball over too.
The expectation is that the Bulldogs will have a lot of success throwing the ball and that will open up some running lanes to keep some control of this game. It will also put pressure on Texas Tech to try and keep up in what may be a shoot out, but the Red Raiders are also going to have to rely on a Quarter Back to make the plays.
Texas Tech have not been able to establish the run as they would have liked in their last few regular season games, while the Bulldogs Defensive Line is stout and will not give up a lot of big plays on the ground. Donovan Smith is the third Quarter Back to play for the Red Raiders and I think it is a big ask for him to make plays consistently against a SEC Secondary.
Donovan Smith will be facing more pass rush pressure in and around his face and I think that will be a reason some drives will stall. I do think Smith can have a solid outing, but it may not be close to what Will Rogers does with the ball and I think the Mississippi State Bulldogs are the right team to back in this Bowl Game.
The Bulldogs ended the season on a 5-1 run against the spread and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five following a straight up loss.
It has been tough sledding for the Red Raiders who are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten Bowl Games and 7-15 against the spread in their last twenty-two neutral field games. Add in the poor 1-5 record against the spread in their last six against SEC opponents and I think the players may not be able to change the narrative with so much uncertainty about what the future will hold in Lubbock.
NC State Wolfpack vs UCLA Bruins Pick: There are some good looking Bowl Games yet to be played around the New Year period, but there may not be many better than the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. The UCLA Bruins (8-4) will feel there will be plenty of home support for them and they may need that against the very strong NC State Wolfpack (9-3) who are looking to win at least ten games for just the second time in school history.
Even the defeats have come in highly competitive affairs and the Wolfpack are bolstered by the feelings of players that they are going to return in 2022. This will make the NC State team experienced and arguably the favourites in the ACC Conference along with Divisional rivals Clemson Tigers.
They were plenty experienced in this season too and the Wolfpack have won four of their last five games in the regular season to build the confidence ahead of the extra practices for the Bowl Game. However, they are facing a Bruins team who have won three in a row and who have had their first winning record under Head Coach Chip Kelly.
Some rumours had been around that the Head Coach may be thinking about returning to Oregon, but Chip Kelly will remain with the Bruins after a strong 2021 and Dillon Gabriel is going to be the Quarter Back going forward. He will be transferring to UCLA for the 2022 season, but Chip Kelly has been praising Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the strong performances at Quarter Back to end this season.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson could return for the Bruins even with Gabriel coming in, and he could show that he is still the man at the Quarter Back position with a big Bowl performance against a very good opponent. This season he has thrown 21 Touchdown passes with 6 Interceptions, but the performances down the stretch have been really encouraging with the Bruins looking more and more like a Chip Kelly team.
It all starts with the run and Thompson-Robinson is capable of moving the ball with his legs as well as his arm- the Bruins Offensive Line and all the misdirections that were a part of Chip Kelly's identity with the Oregon Ducks has seen UCLA racking up big yards on the ground in recent games and I think that will continue against the Wolfpack Defensive Line which has struggled down the stretch.
Throwing against the Wolfpack Secondary has been a real issue for teams, but establishing the run should give the Bruins a chance to do that and especially if their Quarter Back is careful with the ball.
Any issues running the ball brings the fierce Wolfpack pass rush into play and that would be a major problem for the Bruins. However, I do think they are going to be able to have success on the ground and that will mean there is some pressure on the NC State Wolfpack to respond.
I expect they will be able to do that, although there may be some issues in running the ball. Devin Leary has had a very big year for the NC State Wolfpack at Quarter Back, but he would love for the team to be able to establish the run considering what we have seen from the Bruins Defensive unit down the stretch.
The Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run, although the Bruins will be without Otito Ogbonnia on this unit after he declared he will be heading to the NFL Draft. That will have an impact on the Bruins when losing such a talent, but they will feel they can force the Wolfpack to be a little one-dimensional, although shutting out Devin Leary when it comes to throwing the ball will be a huge challenge.
The loss of Ogbonnia will impact the pass rush, but the Bruins have been able to get to the Quarter Back and the Wolfpack Offensive Line has sometimes struggled in pass protection. If UCLA can win at the line of scrimmage, they will have to believe they can get some pressure around Leary and that can see them force some errant throws into a Secondary that played well in their last three regular season games.
It should be a close and competitive game, but I think the underdog can use the likely home support to help them through this Holiday Bowl.
UCLA have not won a Bowl Game since 2014, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog. The Wolfpack have to be respected with strong records as a favourite and in recent Bowl Games, but I think the UCLA Bruins may be able to find the balance on the Offensive side of the ball which gives them a narrow edge.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: Things may have been a lot different for the Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) in 2021 if they had not lost their best playmaker on the Offensive side of the ball early in the season. Even without Mohamed Ibrahim, the Golden Gophers have put together three winning years in four under Head Coach PJ Fleck and they will be looking for a third Bowl win in a row under Fleck too.
They are the favourites when facing the West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6) who are going for a second winning season in a row under Neal Brown. The Head Coach has never been beaten in a Bowl Game which will add to the motivation for the Mountaineers, but they have been an inconsistent team in 2021 having finished with a 6-4 record in 2020 and it would be some turnaround having won two in a row to close out the regular season.
The Golden Gophers have also won two in a row, but they are not a dominant Offensive team and I do think this Bowl Game has every chance of being one decided at the very end by whichever team holds the ball last.
Both teams will be approaching this one in a similar way- establishing the run may open up holes in the improved Secondaries of both teams with the pass not an easy way to move the chains against either unit. It is not easy to predict which team will be able to get going on the ground though and that is where this game is going to be won or lost.
Minnesota have not been as efficient running the ball down the stretch as they may have been with Ibrahim in the line up, but they are not facing a very strong West Virginia Defensive Line and so there may be more room than usual. On the other side, the Mountaineers have been able to establish the run, but it will be a test for the Offensive Line when facing a Golden Gophers team that have been able to clamp down on the run.
Tanner Morgan will have time at Quarter Back for the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but the Mountaineers Secondary have played well and they are a ball-hawking unit that will love to give their own team extra possessions. Jarret Doege has been a little inconsistent at Quarter Back for the Mountaineers, but he also should have time to make his throws and the key for this player is to try and erase the mistakes which have been as much as part of his season as the Touchdown passes.
My feeling is that Jarret Doege may be the one that makes the costly mistake that makes the difference, but I would be surprised if the Mountaineers are blown out.
The majority of the trends favour Minnesota, but they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the favourite.
As poor as the Mountaineers record is in Bowl Games, they are the underdog this time and Neal Brown has shown he can make use of the extra practices here and in his previous role as Head Coach of Troy. I think that will be key for the underdog here and taking the points on offer in this Bowl Game seems the play.
MY PICKS: Army Black Knights - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
North Texas Mean Green + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
UCF Knights + 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Georgia State Panthers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Western Michigan Broncos - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars + 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Air Force Falcons + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs - 10 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins + 2 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers + 5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
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