The Week 14 of the NFL season begins a run of pivotal games with the PlayOff places shaking up over the next month.
All of the teams chasing top seven places should be motivated to play hard right through to Week 17 with the new PlayOff format seeing only one team earning a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the post-season. Every game matters from here and there are some big games to come through this Week of the regular season.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team Pick: With the way things are shaping up in the NFC, the feeling is that eight wins will be enough for a team to make their way into the Wild Card Round of the NFL PlayOffs in January. That will mean a losing record could potentially be good enough good, and that may at least have some Dallas Cowboys (8-4) fans feeling a little more comfortable when it comes to playing post-season Football in 2021.
However, the Cowboys laid the platform for much more earlier this season and they are coming out of a rough patch with key players returning on both sides of the ball. Winning the Division is still an important task for teams as it will mean at least one home PlayOff game, while a strong end to this season may still be good enough to secure the very important Number 1 Seed.
That has to keep the motivation going for Dallas, who trail Arizona by two games with five to play, while the Cowboys also have to remain focused considering the improvements seen by a couple of NFC East rivals. The closest challenger is the Washington Football Team (6-6) who have won four in a row and who, in recent seasons at least, have played some very good Football when entering December.
Just two games separate these NFC East rivals and the Cowboys and Football Team are meeting twice in the next three weeks. The first of those in Week 14 is going to be played in Washington, but it is the Cowboys who have been set as a pretty big favourite all things considered.
I do like Dallas here though with the Defensive Line having reinforcements in Week 14, although the likely absence of Tony Pollard is a bit of a blow to the team. As well as the Washington Defensive unit have played during their winning run, they are facing a Dallas team with plenty of Offensive firepower and a team that has had a few extra days to prepare for this game having played on Thursday Night Football in Week 13.
In the last two games, Washington have only needed to score 17 points to win games thanks to the performance of the Defense, but I do think the Dallas Cowboys can offer a different threat to Seattle and Las Vegas. Unlike those two teams, the Cowboys have a genuine balance on the Offensive side of the ball with Ezekiel Elliot capable of pounding the ball behind this Offensive Line and Dak Prescott a Quarter Back who is blessed with plenty of Receiving weapons.
Washington have played well, even with the injuries they have been dealing with, but that balance will test them in a different way. The Football Team have made big plays to change the momentum in games, but I think this is a very tough test for them against a Cowboys team that have had considerable success on this field in recent years.
You have to believe Dallas can score plenty more points than the Seahawks and Raiders and that means there is a pressure on Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Offense. 17 points might have been good enough to win a couple of games, but that is not likely to be the case here and Washington have not been helped by another injury suffered by Logan Thomas.
He is a key weapon for the Quarter Back, so the feeling is that the Football Team are going to rely on Antonio Gibson and look to pound the rock through the Running Back. In recent games the Cowboys Defensive Line have been vulnerable to the run, but the likes of Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory are back in Week 14 and I do think that can help, especially as the Football Team's Offensive Line have not opened big holes for their Backs.
Taylor Heinicke has largely avoided making mistakes and he has made some big throws at key times to keep drives moving, but he could be faced with some serious pressure with the Cowboys likely back to full strength up front. An aggressive Dallas Secondary will give up some big plays, but Heinicke has to be aware of the ball-hawking nature of the Defensive Backs and I think the Cowboys can show up and produce a win that will almost certainly wrap up the Division.
Washington do have some solid numbers against the spread that have to be respected, but the Dallas Cowboys have been really impressive at the window when it comes to playing teams from the NFC and when they are on the road. They are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games and Dallas have covered in seven in a row against Conference rivals, while they also tend to play the NFC East rivals very effectively.
The underdog has had a really good job in this rivalry, but Dallas are 5-2 against the spread in seven visits to FedExField and I think they can cover here with a healthier looking team and with the additional time to prepare for the game.
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans Pick: The injury that cost Russell Wilson several weeks may be the pivotal moment of the 2021 season for the Seattle Seahawks (4-8), but a win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 has barely kept them alive as far as the PlayOffs are concerned. You have to believe that the Seahawks are going to have to win at least four of their remaining five games and then hope for some fortune, but they do have a chance to build on that victory over a Divisional rival.
A non-Conference game may not be the most important on the seventeen game schedule, but at this point of the season every game matters and it would be a devastating blow for the Seahawks if they were to lose here. They are facing the Houston Texans (2-10) who are clearly going to be thinking about their Draft position going forward and one that is reshaping the roster after cutting Zach Cunningham this week.
Zach Cunningham has been considered one of the better Defensive players the Texans had left on the roster, but there is a culture shift going on here and the season cannot really end quickly enough for Houston. It has been a difficult season and Head Coach David Culley has announced that Davis Mills will be the Quarter Back for the team.
It has been a really difficult year Offensively for the Texans, but they will want to play with more pride after being kept scoreless in the defeat to the Colts in Week 13. Davis Mills should be able to have more success against the Seahawks when you think of some of the Defensive breakdowns that Seattle have had, but Houston are not very good on this side of the ball and I certainly would not be overly expectant of their capabilities to score points.
Houston are not going to be expected to run the ball with any great success and especially not with the recent upturn in performance from the Seattle Defensive Line. That means Davis Mills being in third and long spots behind a struggling Offensive Line and even a limited pass rush like the one that the Seahawks are generating should be good enough to get after him.
While there are holes in the Seattle Secondary, Davis Mills has not really shown that he is capable of exposing them and certainly not on a consistent basis. He has to avoid mistakes to give his own Defensive unit a chance to step up and make plays, but Mills will have a tough day making the plays on his own with the limitations of the skill players around him as well as the Offensive Line.
The spot is an obvious concern for Seattle as is all the money the public are putting on the road favourite, but this is an important game for the Seahawks as they look to edge a little closer to the top seven in the NFC. They do have another Divisional game coming up in Week 15 to sandwich a non-Conference outing, but as I have mentioned above, Seattle can ill-afford more than one more loss if they are going to have a chance of playing post-season Football.
Russell Wilson has not really looked completely at ease with his injury since returning earlier than initially thought, but he has been improving and I think that will be the case again in Week 14. This time he is facing a Houston Defensive unit that have made sure they have not allowed their level to drop, but one that has been on the field for far too long and can be worn down.
Play-calling from the Seahawks has been a little questionable since Wilson returned and they would be well advised to actually use the Offensive Line in the way they enjoy the most- run blocking. The Texans have been horrible stopping the run all season and in recent games Seattle have made big gains on the ground before the pass protection has broken down or they have begun to chase games.
That should not be an excuse in Week 14 and I think Alex Collins can set the Seahawks up by pounding the ball on the ground and making sure Russell Wilson is not left exposed by the Offensive Line in third and long spots. Zach Cunningham is gone so you do have to wonder if the Houston pass rush will suffer somewhat, but they are capable of getting to the Quarter Back so being in front of the chains is massively important for Seattle.
I expect they can do that and it should open up the passing lanes for Russell Wilson who still has plenty of quality in the Receiving positions to have a big game. The Texans Secondary has actually played well in recent games and not given Quarter Backs big games, but that is also partly down to the fact that teams have been able to run on them all day long and it should be a relatively comfortable day for Seattle.
As I have mentioned, the spot is not ideal between games with San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams, but Houston have been largely uncompetitive of late and Seattle did blow out the Jacksonville Jaguars, albeit at home.
Seattle have some terrible trends as a road favourite and when playing off a win, but Houston are 0-4 against the spread in their last four following a double digit loss at home. They are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven when losing in blow out fashion as they did to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 and I think Seattle can do enough to win this one going away from their hosts.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There were plenty of questions being asked of the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) a few weeks ago, but five straight wins have seen them surge to the top of the AFC West. They are firmly involved in the race to finish as the Number 1 Seed in the Conference too, although it might be a little intimidating for other teams to hear that the Chiefs feel there are still gears to move through before this season comes to an end.
All four teams in the AFC West are still battling for PlayOff spots and that means Kansas City can not take their eye off the ball with five games left to play in the regular season. They do have a potentially pivotal game against the Los Angeles Chargers coming up on Thursday Night Football in Week 15 and that is a potential distraction considering they hold a blow out win over the opponent they face this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders (6-6) have every chance of finishing strong and battling into the top seven in this Conference, but they have lost four of their last five games and injuries have been hurting this team. Everyone knows the situation around Henry Ruggs, but Darren Waller has been missing with an injury and I do think that hurts the Raiders massively on the Offensive side of the ball.
Las Vegas have been struggling Offensively for a few weeks and now they have to face a Kansas City team that have earned this five game winning run thanks to the strong Defensive performances being produced. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in any game since the end of October and they have already showcased their ability on this side of the ball in the heavy win over the Raiders in Week 10.
While the game is close, the Raiders can lean on Josh Jacobs who should be able to find some room to attack the Chiefs on the ground, but I still think that is a tough ask for the Raiders. You have think the Chiefs will know about that and taking away Jacobs would mean an inconsistent passing game led by Derek Carr is all that is between them and a sixth win.
Josh Jacobs has shown decent hands when Receiving too, but Las Vegas have to stay in front of the chains if only to ease the Kansas City pass rush, which has helped this Chiefs team push forward.
The Raiders should have some success throwing the ball, but in recent weeks it has been a tough task for opponents and I do think it should be the side of the ball in which Kansas City are most comfortable.
It will surprise many to read that when considering the quality of Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back for Kansas City, but it has been a difficult stretch for him, arguably the most difficult since he joined the pro ranks. The numbers are not too bad, but Kansas City can't get out of their own way at times, although the best performance produced by Mahomes this season came in the win over the Raiders.
Running the ball will be a challenge for Kansas City and that will mean leaning on Patrick Mahomes even more, but I do think he can do what needs to be done to keep the chains moving. He can scramble away from pressure, but Mahomes is also capable of spreading the ball all around and there should be plenty of time given to the Quarter Back by his Offensive Line.
Kansas City should have enough to ease past Las Vegas as long as the Thursday Night Football came is one they can put to the back of the mind. That is going to be tough considering how important that game could be in the Divisional race in the AFC West, but the Chiefs won't have forgotten the home loss to the Raiders in 2020 and I expect that will mean Kansas City should be motivated to make a statement.
A loss would also give the Raiders life in the Divisional race so it is important for the Chiefs to focus.
The Chiefs have been a poor home favourite to back and Las Vegas have been a really good road underdog, but Kansas City are 4-1 against the spread in the last five against this Divisional rival here and I think they will be able to cover a big number.
New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets Pick: Five losses in a row will hurt any team in the NFL, even with the extended seventeen game regular season, but the New Orleans Saints (5-7) are still alive when it comes to fighting for position in the PlayOffs. Injuries have decimated the team over the last few weeks and that has seen them slump away from the top of the NFC South and now struggling to keep up with those teams in the Wild Card places.
Some of those injuries look to be clearing up and the Saints are a big favourite to win in Week 14, although they are heading out on the road. Some of that is down to the fact that the Saints are facing the New York Jets (3-9) who are close to being eliminated from the post-season.
The Jets were blown out by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13 and they are also dealing with injuries and the team may have already begun to think about the end of another season that comes without a PlayOff place attached to it. A non-Conference game may not mean as much to New York who are hosting Divisional rivals Miami next week and looking to play spoiler for them, while an inconsistent Jets team may have some difficulty getting on top of a New Orleans team that may be as healthy as they can be.
Alvin Kamara is the biggest name that could return, but the Offensive Line may be restored to full health and Cameron Jordan is expected to be back for the Defensive Line. That is really important for the New Orleans Saints who have a huge game coming up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but who can't afford to drop this game if they are going to finish in the top seven in the NFC.
Having Kamara back and Taysom Hill at Quarter Back should mean New Orleans are able to have success moving the ball on the ground, although that will also mean going against the best unit the New York Jets have. The Jets Defensive Line have been pretty stout against the run, but with the Saints looking like they could have their Offensive Line back intact, I think it is a chance for the road team to at least move into a position where they can open up the passing lanes.
Taysom Hill is going to play through an injury, and he did have some issues throwing the ball in Week 13, but he also had some very big plays against the Dallas Cowboys and he should be able to move the ball against this Jets Secondary. In recent weeks, the Jets Secondary have played better and the Saints don't have the most recognisable of Receiving corps, but Hill showed he can help this Offense find a spark that has been missing of late and that should see them have more success than they have been used to.
Injuries have been an issue for the New Orleans Saints, but it has been a major problem for the New York Jets and there are a number of players that will be missing. Corey Davis will be a big miss in the Wideout spots, and the Jets have had issues finding consistency on the Offensive side of the ball throughout this season.
Michael Carter is one of the players that will be missing for the Jets and he had given them a spark at Running Back, but it may still be possible to have some joy pounding the rock. That will only be an option as long as the Jets keep this game close, but over the last three games the Saints have struggled to stop the run and Sean Payton will be looking to have spent the extra time between games to get this team back to basics.
The Secondary are still playing well and I do think the potential return of Cameron Jordan is big news for the Saints Defensive Line as they look to snap their run of losses. He can help the pass rush get after Zach Wilson against this New York Offensive Line and I do think the Saints can win by around a Touchdown on the road.
In recent weeks the Saints have not been a good favourite to back, but under Sean Payton they have been a strong road favourite. The New York Jets have been struggling with players perhaps looking ahead to the end of the season and I think that could see them struggle to remain competitive, especially with a Divisional game on deck that could serve as a distraction for the Jets.
MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
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