It was a really miserable time for the NFL Picks in the middle of the regular season, but back to back strong weeks have just gotten the numbers moving in a positive direction.
Work has to be done to turn it around completely before we get into the NFL PlayOffs, but momentum is important and I do feel the luck has just turned in my favour.
The Week 16 Picks begin with Thursday Night Football and there are NFL games to be played on four of the next five days and that is not withstanding the fact that there could be more postponements as there were in Week 15. The PlayOffs are beginning to take shape and there could be a few more teams confirming their spot in the post-season having seen the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North.
Teams are chasing Seeding positions too and I think that will keep most focused right through to Week 18 of the regular season.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: With two of the three worst teams in the NFL in the Division and with two wins over your biggest rival, you would imagine in most cases that winning the Division should be firmly in hand. Unbelievably that is not the case for the Tennessee Titans (9-5) who have been slumping ever since Derrick Henry went down with an injury and who gave away another game when falling to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15.
At this point even a Wild Card position may be slipping out of the Titans grasp and that is with an extra place on offer in both Conferences. The pressure has to be building on Tennessee and they are not being helped with more injuries as Julio Jones is unlikely to suit up and AJ Brown may be activated, but unable to play as many snaps as he would like.
As the Titans are slipping with three losses in their last four games, they are up against the San Francisco 49ers (8-6) who are trending in the opposite direction as they look to secure a place in the post-season. A couple more wins should be enough for a top seven finish in the NFC, but the 49ers have won five of their last six games and will feel they can make some serious noise in the PlayOffs if they can keep this momentum going.
The sharp money has come down on the Tennessee Titans and that has seen the spread just shrink a little more and to the point where it is at a key number right now. I think that makes the road team appealing on the short week, even though the San Francisco 49ers are having to travel across the country for the Week 16 game.
They look to be matching up pretty well with the Titans on both sides of the ball and I think that will only help the 49ers produce an important win as long as Jimmy Garoppolo looks after the ball. In recent games the Quarter Back has played well and he has been able to avoid mistakes which can be a killer for this team, but Garoppolo has also been seriously backed by the performance of the Defensive unit.
Jimmy Garoppolo may have to use his arm more than he is usually used to against the Titans and that is because of how impressively Tennessee's Defensive Line have shut down the run in recent games. The Titans Defensive unit clearly feel they need to be at their very best to try and give the Offense a spark, but there are issues in the Secondary which can be exposed.
Both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel continue to find spaces past the line of scrimmage and I think the Quarter Back is going to have to target them here. Jimmy Garoppolo will have to be aware of the Titans pass rush if he is being left in third and long situations, but he may also be asked to throw the ball quickly in lieu of a running game, which may keep the 49ers in front of the chains and in a position to win this game.
However, I think it is the improvement of the performance level of the San Francisco Defense which is going to be key to the outcome of this one. As I have mentioned, Tennessee have struggled without Derrick Henry, although the Offensive Line is strong and have still opened up significant holes for D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard. Both had solid outings last week in the defeat in Pittsburgh, but it should be noted that the San Francisco Defensive Line have really picked up their level of play when looking to shut down the run and Tennessee have not played a team as strong as this since Henry was lost.
Inconsistencies up front have prevented the Titans from leaning on the run, but they have not been helped by the extremely short time Ryan Tannehill has been given in the pocket when he has been asked to throw. Losing Jones and Brown means he can't really look for a trustworthy target, but the Offensive Line have not been able to keep Tannehill upright and now the Titans will have to try and block an extremely fierce, productive pass rush generated by the 49ers.
It feels like this is where the game is going to be won for the 49ers as they can make enough plays to at least win out on the field position battle.
Ryan Tannehill has been struggling without his top two Receivers, and even a limited AJ Brown may not be able to do enough for his team to change that narrative.
The short week is not ideal for San Francisco, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road favourite. Head Coach Mike Vrabel has made the Titans a tough team to beat as the underdog, but they have also struggled on the short week and I think Tennessee could struggle to keep this one close.
Nothing comes easy for teams on the road, but I do like the 49ers here.
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers Pick: They have become the first team to secure a spot in the NFL PlayOffs, but the Green Bay Packers (11-3) still have a goal in mind before the end of the regular season. Win out and the Packers will secure the top Seed in the NFC for a second season in a row and this year it is even more important with only one team in each Conference earning a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the post-season.
The Packers almost blew a big Fourth Quarter lead on the road in Week 15, but they are still one of the better teams at covering the spread, although they are being asked to cover a very big number in this Christmas Day game.
They are taking on the desperate Cleveland Browns (7-7) who saw a short-handed roster beaten on a walk off Field Goal in Week 15 to drop to 12th in the AFC standings. Like the Packers, the Browns have to be focusing on winning out and hoping that ten wins is good enough to secure a spot in the post-season, but there is little room for error after the defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders.
At least the Browns will have a number of players back from off the Covid list and that includes Baker Mayfield at Quarter Back who is set to be cleared to play on Friday. However, the lack of practice will be a concern and Cleveland have suffered some big injuries on the Defensive side of the ball, which does not bode well against the high-octane Offense run by the Green Bay Packers led by Aaron Rodgers.
Myles Garrett is set to play even if he does not practice and that is important for the Browns who have lost a couple of key players on the Defensive Line. The best way to try and beat a top Quarter Back is by putting them under pressure up front, but Cleveland may not be as effective at doing this against Aaron Rodgers as they would have been if all of their players were available.
If they are not able to get the pressure they like, the Browns could see the banged up Secondary exposed in a much more clinical manner than Derek Carr was able to do for the Raiders on Monday. Aaron Rodgers is a significantly better Quarter Back and he has had a big year despite the amount of Sacks he has had to take, but in this one he may have a touch more time and can find Receivers down the field, even if the improving Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been ruled out.
The Offensive Line is a little banged up, but I am not sure the Browns have the personnel to expose that and especially not with Myles Garrett fighting through the pain. Green Bay may not be able to run the ball as they would like, but Aaron Jones can be a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, while I expect the Packers have worked all week to find a way to scheme Davante Adams open.
I have to respect how well the Cleveland Defensive unit have played all season, but the injuries on the Defensive Line coupled with the absence of John Johnson at Safety is a major blow for them. The Packers have been very powerful at home and I think they are going to be able to move the ball successfully and can shift the pressure onto Cleveland to try and keep up with them.
As long as the game is close, I do think Cleveland have a chance to do that with Nick Chubb likely to have another big showing running the ball. He wore down the Raiders last week and it has long been considered a real possibility to have success running the ball against Green Bay, while the Browns Offensive Line looks like it will be even stronger with players returning from Covid issues.
Nick Chubb will be key to keeping the Browns in front of the chains and that will give Baker Mayfield a chance, but the Quarter Back is going to be without Jarvis Landry. Baker Mayfield has been well protected by his Offensive Line, but the rumour is that Cleveland will want to upgrade this position in a possible trade market in the off-season considering the amount of inconsistency we have come to expect from Mayfield.
He is not helped by the lack of skill players, but Baker Mayfield has also been guilty of some poor decision making and I do think he is going to be under pressure in this one. Another loss may end the Browns hopes of making the post-season and I think at some point their Quarter Back is going to have to throw the ball to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Offense.
I don't think this will be a blowout from the off, but I do think the Green Bay Packers will eventually pull clear as they force the Cleveland Browns to lean away from the run. That is where the Packers can take advantage of Baker Mayfield and eventually get the best of a mistake that helps them cover this big mark.
The Packers have covered in their last five as the home favourite and in general they have been very good at home since Matt LaFleur has come in as the Head Coach. Aaron Rodgers will want to remind the watching nation that he should be a leading candidate for the MVP award again and he will want to keep Green Bay on track for the top Seed in the NFC and I think the Packers can end up securing a double digit win on Christmas Day.
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: PlayOff implications can be found in many of the games to be played in Week 16 of the NFL season and this the second of a double header with those implications on Christmas Day. The Indianapolis Colts (8-6) have won two in a row and they will likely need to win at least two of their final three games to finish in the top seven in the Conference, although the Tennessee Titans won on Thursday Night Football which means the AFC South is almost certainly out of reach.
The Colts will travel to face the slumping Arizona Cardinals (10-4) who have lost two in a row and three of their last five and now the Cardinals have lost control of the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. They are only a game behind the Green Bay Packers, but the slump in form has come at a bad time and the Arizona Cardinals are only just holding off the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West.
Falling behind the Rams would mean having to play on the road in the PlayOffs and the Cardinals are in danger.
The loss at the Detroit Lions in Week 15 was a really disappointing one for the Arizona Cardinals and they could be without some key players in this game. DeAndre Hopkins is a major loss for the Offensive unit, while James Connor is Questionable, even though the Running Back is convinced he will be able to play in this game.
Arizona will need him too, especially with Kyler Murray having a few issues at Quarter Back, but I do think the Cardinals Offensive Line can open up some holes for whoever is running the ball for the home team. That is important for the Cardinals to make sure they are not putting Murray in difficult third and long spots, while the play-calling has to be better on this side of the ball after a poor showing in Detroit.
I expect they can establish the run against the Indianapolis Defensive Line and that may give Kyler Murray a chance to make some plays through the air. It has to be noted that the Colts Secondary have played well, but Murray can target Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz and it should mean they are able to have some success moving the ball and turning drives into Touchdowns rather than settling for Field Goals.
Even then, it is hard to trust the Cardinals without Hopkins at Receiver as he clearly was the favourite target for Kyler Murray who has struggled without him. Some way, somehow, Murray has to find a way to make adjustments with DeAndre Hopkins not expected back until the NFC Championship Game at best and so this is still going to be a challenging game for the Quarter Back who was one of the leading candidates for the MVP award a few weeks ago.
While Murray's stock has fallen in the race for that award, Indianapolis will be heading to the desert with a player that may yet force his way into the leading spot for MVP. Jonathan Taylor has become the leading Running Back in the NFL ever since Derrick Henry went down with an injury and he has had some monster games in recent weeks to put the Colts in a position to reach the PlayOffs.
It was the Jonathan Taylor show in Week 15 as he ran all over the New England Patriots and over the course of this season it has been a real problem for Arizona when it comes to shutting down the run. In recent games they have had a bit more success on the Defensive Line, but the Colts have an Offensive Line that can bully others at the line of scrimmage and they will feel they can set Taylor up for another huge outing.
One concern for the road team is the injuries on the Offensive Line, but they did manage in Week 15 and the Colts will feel they can still win at the line of scrimmage. It is absolutely the key for the team if they are going to earn what will be seen as an upset, and will also mean keeping the pressure off of Carson Wentz at Quarter Back.
The lean on Jonathan Taylor means Indianapolis have not asked too much of Wentz behind Center, but being in front of the chains will give the Quarter Back every chance of attacking what has been a vulnerable Arizona Secondary. The pass rush would also be negated and I think Carson Wentz will be able to find some of the skill players around him with slightly more time when dropping back to throw the ball.
Jonathan Taylor may be most comfortable running with the ball behind the Offensive Line, but he is also a capable Receiver and I think the Colts can do enough on this side of the ball to win this game.
It will not be easy, but Arizona have struggled as a relatively short favourite this season where they have put a 1-3 record against the spread on the board. The Cardinals are 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven at home overall, but they are an awful 9-23 against the spread in their last thirty-two as the home favourite.
Arizona are going to try and bounce back from a loss and good teams in that spot have to be respected, but I am not sure how good this current Cardinals team is. Playing the better teams has been a problem with the Cardinals gong 2-7 against the spread in the last nine when facing a team with a winning record.
The Colts have covered the last four times they have been set as the road underdog and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven when playing a team with a winning record.
This should be highly competitive and the spread is not a big one, but I think the road underdog can establish the run and use that to find a way to earn the victory.
Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints Pick: No one will be surprised that there is a hugely pivotal game being played in Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season, but this non-Conference game looks to be even bigger than most played over the last few days.
The Miami Dolphins (7-7) and New Orleans Saints (7-7) share the same record, but the losing team on Monday Night Football is going to be under immense pressure to make the PlayOffs with just two weeks of the season remaining. The Dolphins are much further down the AFC standings with their 0.500 record than the New Orleans Saints are in the NFC, but the one difference is that a win will propel Miami into the top seven.
Plenty of twists and turns are to come over the next two weeks, but the Dolphins will be looking to keep their six game winning run alive by moving above 0.500 with another victory to turn around the disappointing 1-7 start to the season. The team is looking healthier with Jaylen Waddle returning to the team having missed out in Week 15, and I do think they are in a good spot to keep their winning run going.
Tua Tagovailoa may still have some doubters as to his chances of being a full time franchise Quarter Back, but the Dolphins are rolling with him through the end of the 2021 season and he has been playing very well during the run of victories. He will be challenged by a New Orleans Saints Defensive unit that have just held Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoreless, but injuries are impacting the Saints on both sides of the ball, but they are going to have Sean Payton on the sidelines.
An emotional effort was needed to beat the Buccaneers and I am not sure New Orleans will be able to do the same here- problems on the Defensive Line have given teams a chance to run the ball effectively on them and Duke Johnson offered Miami a spark on the ground in their win over the New York Jets. Over the course of the season the Dolphins Offensive Line have not really been very good at run blocking, but they have also not been helped by inconsistent performances from the Running Backs and the hope is that Johnson can offer something different to Myles Gaskin.
That Offensive Line has at least given Tua Tagovailoa a bit more time to make his throws down the field and I think the Quarter Back can have some success in this one. He has to be wary of the New Orleans Secondary which is capable of making some huge stops, but the Saints will be without some key starters in that unit and I do think the Miami Dolphins can produce points in this one.
However, the key to the outcome of the Monday Night Football game may be on the others side of the ball and that is because the New Orleans Saints are missing Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. The former is injured and the latter two are both on the Covid list which means Ian Book will be making his first start in the pro game in a season in which the rookie was expected to sit back and learn how to develop into a Quarter Back in the NFL.
It is a huge challenge for Ian Book considering the lack of support around him- Alvin Kamara is available and is likely to be a huge part of the Offensive game plan, but Miami will know that and the Saints are also likely to be without key pieces of the Offensive Line. Head Coach Brian Flores has shown he is a sharp Defensive mind and I have little doubt that Miami are going to try and bamboozle a rookie with blitzes coming from funky areas of the field and with Kamara being the main player to shut down on this side of the ball.
During the winning run, the Miami Dolphins have returned to some elite Defensive levels, albeit against limited competition. This Saints Offense is not expected to be much better having only produced nine points last week and now being down to a fourth string Quarter Back who is making his first start in the NFL.
With an Offensive Line banged up, the Dolphins should be able to shut down Alvin Kamara at Running Back and the much improved pass rush is likely to rattle Ian Book. That should offer Miami a chance to win the field battle during the game and I think they can score enough points to earn the cover, although the spread has moved from the Dolphins being a Field Goal underdog to a Field Goal favourite.
I would not be surprised if the Defensive unit is able to produce points for the Dolphins too and I think they can win this game on the road.
The Saints continue to impress as the underdog, but they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five at home. I do have to worry about the poor record Miami have as the road favourite, but they will rarely have headed on the road to play a team with as many issues as the Saints have.
In most circumstances I would expect an A + effort from the decimated home team, but they are off an emotional effort in beating the Buccaneers again and this looks a poor spot for New Orleans.
MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 9 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)
Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)
Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)
Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)
Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)
Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)
Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Season 2021: 61-58-1, - 4.86 Units (240 Units Staked, - 2.03% Yield)
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