It is that time of the season to go Bowling in College Football and I am planning to split my threads into four parts over the coming month.
This one will cover the early games, before I will begin a second thread that should take in all the games to be played over the Christmas period. Following that, I will have a thread covering the Bowl Games around the New Year period before the final post covering the National Championship Game.
You have to question motivations and it is also a good idea to note players that may decide to skip the lesser Bowl Games in preparation for the NFL Draft which is coming up in the first half of 2022. It can make selections during the Bowl period a little more difficult than the regular season, although any Picks are far from straight-forward over the course of the season.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Toledo Rockets Pick: The 2021 Bowl season will begin with the Bahamas Bowl and it will involve two teams who will feel they underachieved in their Conferences this season. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-6) and the Toledo Rockets (7-5) should still be plenty motivated ahead of this Bowl Game, even if the exotic surroundings can be something of a distraction to players.
The Blue Raiders have had a really inconsistent season, but Head Coach Rick Stockstill is hoping to lead his team to their first winning record since 2018. That was also the last season in which Middle Tennessee played in a Bowl Game, although the school will be looking for a better conclusion to 2021 having been blown out by the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the New Orleans Bowl.
They are a considerable underdog against the Toledo Rockets who won three in a row to finish with a guaranteed winning record for a fifth season in six under Head Coach Jason Candle. That cannot be underestimated, even if the Rockets were not quite good enough to reach the MAC Championship Game.
Toledo will be encouraged by the three wins in succession and they have been an all or nothing kind of team- they have either blown teams out, or ended up losing scrappy games, while the Rockets are another team that have not been invited into a Bowl Game since 2018. It is something that will irritate the Seniors on the team considering they have been eligible for selection in both 2019 and 2020 and I expect Toledo to want to make the most of the opportunity in front of them.
I have to believe the Rockets will be encouraged by the way they have been running the ball and establishing the ground attack will make them very dangerous, especially as Toledo have been a team that doesn't shoot themselves in the foot. In the three game winning run, the Rockets have pounded the rock with considerable success and I do think that is a potential problem for the Blue Raiders Defensive Line, even though they have largely been tough to run against.
The Toledo Offensive Line is also very strong in pass protection and that is going to give Dequan Finn a good chance to have a big game at Quarter Back. I expect the Rockets to also factor in Carter Bradley into the game plan at the Quarter Back position, and between the two players I do think the Rockets can move the ball through the air thanks to the protection offered by the Offensive Line.
Looking after the ball has been a big feature of the way Toledo have operated this season, but Middle Tennessee will be looking to keep the turnovers coming. It could be a key to the outcome of the game considering some of the Offensive difficulties that the Blue Raiders may have in this game as they continue to operate with a third string Quarter Back.
That makes it very important for the underdog to establish the run, especially as any struggles up front is going to shift the momentum in favour of the Rockets considerably. In recent games it has been possible for the Blue Raiders to get the run going, but over the course of the season the Rockets have been pretty stout on the Defensive Line and they may even risk putting an extra man or two in the box to make sure Middle Tennessee are relying on an inexperienced Quarter Back to beat them.
Any time Toledo have their opponent in third and long, the very strong pass rush being generated by the Rockets is likely going to take over this game. That pressure has enabled the Secondary to make some big plays and I think it is going to be the main reason Toledo are able to win this game and pull clear.
Middle Tennessee are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog, while they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six on a neutral field.
Neither team has been at their best in recent Bowl Games, but Toledo do play non-Conference opponents pretty well and I think that will help them here. As long as they can continue to play mistake-free Football, I think the Rockets can win this one by a margin wide enough to cover this mark.
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Pick: They finished 0-6 in 2020 and the Northern Illinois Huskies (9-4) were tipped up by many to have another difficult season in front of them. Head Coach Thomas Hammock had overseen back to back losing seasons, but the Huskies were rewarded for keeping faith in him as he led them to the MAC Championship in 2021.
That means Northern Illinois are back in the Bowl season for the first time since 2018 and they are looking to snap a six game losing run in the post-season. A relatively short period of preparation for this Bowl Game may not be ideal for the Huskies, but they have already overachieved by picking up a Championship and they may feel they have nothing to lose.
The same could be said for the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (10-2), but there is something for them to aim for with a victory here- the Chanticleers could make it back to back seasons with eleven wins if they were to win, while it would also be the first time Coastal Carolina have won a Bowl Game.
Coastal Carolina have to be encouraged by the way they have been able to run the ball all season and the Offensive Line have to be given a lot of credit for that. That is underlined by the fact that the Chanticleers have a number of players that have been able to rush the ball for at least 500 yards this season and I fully expect Coastal Carolina to have considerable success on the ground in this one too.
It has been a weakness for the Huskies Defensive Line to stop the run and I think that will see the Chanticleers move the ball with success for much of this game. Running the ball also opens the game up for Grayson McCall at Quarter Back and it should mean he is afforded a little more time despite the fact that the Carolina Coastal Offensive Line have not been the best in pass protection and especially not compared with the level produced in run blocking.
If Grayson McCall is in front of the chains, he should be able to make some big throws against the Northern Illinois Secondary and the Chanticleers will be feeling good about their Offensive power in this Bowl Game.
This feels like a game in which you can trust the Chanticleers to find solid balance Offensively, but the same cannot be said for Northern Illinois despite the team coming in off the high of beating the Kent State Golden Flashes in the MAC Championship Game. The Huskies are very much a run first team, but there is no guarantee that a strong Offensive Line can get the better of the Chanticleers Defensive Line, which has proven to be stout against the run.
As impressive as Coastal Carolina have been on the Defensive Line, you do have to feel the Huskies will have some successes. Some is not going to be good enough to snap their run of Bowl defeats though and I am not convinced that Rocky Lombardi can have the successes at Quarter Back to move the chains with the consistency of the Chanticleers on the other side of the ball.
Rocky Lombardi should be given some protection, but he has thrown 13 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions and any mistakes are going to give the Chanticleers the extra possessions to move away from Northern Illinois.
The Huskies will be trying to climb down off the emotional high of winning a Championship, and they have failed to cover in their last six Bowl Games, while they are also just 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games when set as the underdog on a neutral field.
Coastal Carolina have not been a very good favourite to back, but the sharp money looks to be on them in this Bowl Game and I think they can be asked to lay the points as the Seniors sign off with their place in history secured.
MY PICKS: Toledo Rockets - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers - 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Appalachian State Mountaineers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Utah State Aggies + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
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