It is Championship Week in the College Football 2021 season and there are going to be a number of teams looking to impress one more time in order to crack the top four places in the College Football PlayOff.
Games in this Week can be pivotal towards that and I think there are going to be some tense moments.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ UTSA Roadrunners Pick: The regular season is over, but Week 14 of the College Football season is reserved for Championship Games around the nation.
The first one scheduled to be played is the Conference-USA Championship Game and make no mistake how important it is to both of these schools. They may not be concerning themselves from being selected for the College Football PlayOff, but the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) and the UTSA Roadrunners (11-1) will consider this a highly successful season if they can place a Championship trophy in their school cabinet.
It has been a dominant season for the UTSA Roadrunners who won their first eleven games before losing in Week 13, although they had already secured their spot in the Championship Game and were perhaps not as focused as they should have been. The Roadrunners would have loved to have completed an unbeaten season, but it is not as if they have suddenly lost out on being selected for the College Football PlayOff and so the attention turning to this Championship Game is just a human reaction.
Things have been more difficult for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers who dropped their opening Conference game before winning seven games in a row to close out the season and secure top spot in the Conference-USA East Division. They were in a win or bust position in Week 13 when facing the Marshall Thundering Herd, but the Hilltoppers blew them out on the road and they will be looking for revenge in the Championship Game and with the momentum behind them.
Western Kentucky were beaten in their opening Conference game by the UTSA Roadrunners and the Hilltoppers were over a Field Goal favourite that day, although they did manage to produce over 100 yards more than their opponent. Being on the road will be more difficult, but the Hilltoppers certainly have momentum behind them and the improving performances in each passing week will have the road favourites believing they can get the better of the Roadrunners this time around.
The season records may have some wondering why the Roadrunners are the underdog, but they did not face a schedule as tough as the one that the Hilltoppers have had to deal with. Seven wins in a row is really difficult to ignore and the yardage battles in recent games suggest the UTSA Roadrunners have a record that is better than it perhaps should be.
I do think both the Roadrunners and Hilltoppers will have success throwing the ball- Bailey Zappe arrived at Western Kentucky with the new Offensive Co-Ordinator and he has shown a real ability to play at this level despite moving up from the FCS. He needs another 32 yards to have thrown for 5000 on the season, but most impressive is the fact that Zappe has 52 Touchdown passes with just 9 Interceptions and I do think he can pick up from where he left off against UTSA when the Quarter Back produced 5 Touchdown passes with a single Interception while putting up 523 passing yards on the day.
Frank Harris had 349 passing yards for the UTSA Roadrunners that day and managed 6 Touchdown passes with a single Interception in the win over the Hilltoppers. His numbers have not been as impressive as Bailey Zappe's over the course of the season, but Harris is a very capable dual-threat Quarter Back.
Both teams have had issues in the Secondary which can be exploited by the two Quarter Backs taking to the field, but the Western Kentucky Offensive Line have just been operating at a stronger level than the UTSA Offensive Line. That has not only shown up in pass protection, but also in establishing the run, while the Hilltoppers look capable of winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The road team have generated a heavy pass rush in recent weeks and I think the momentum behind them helps them earn revenge and win this Championship Game. I would be surprised if both teams do not have successes Offensively, but winning at the line of scrimmage could be where one or two big plays are made to separate the teams.
With that in mind, I do give the edge to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers who have been playing hard for weeks and seen improvements Defensively. They could not make many stops when facing the UTSA Roadrunners back in October, but the Hilltoppers earned many more yards than the Roadrunners and I expect that to be the case here too.
If you like Touchdowns and lots of them, this could be the game for you this weekend.
I am leaning towards the Hilltoppers who have been getting better in each passing week and who have a 5-2-1 record against the spread in their last eight as the road favourite.
UTSA have to be respected with some of the trends they have put together when looking to bounce back from a loss and when set as the underdog and I do think it will come down to which of these teams have the ball last. However, I also think the defeat in Week 13 will have hurt the Roadrunners and it might see them just fail to have the confidence to win this game at a key moment.
Oregon Ducks vs Utah Utes Pick: Both of these teams are Ranked inside the top seventeen, but for the fifth season in a row it is almost certain that the Pac-12 will not be sending a team to the College Football PlayOff. The Oregon Ducks (10-2) and the Utah Utes (9-3) can't concern themselves with that as they look to win a Championship, but there will be some frustration in both camps that they have not been able to at least give themselves a realistic shot of being selected for the PlayOff.
The Utes have been out of contention for a while, but the Ducks will feel particularly disappointed considering they hold a win over the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2021 and that came on the road no less. However, a loss to a Stanford Cardinal team that finished 3-9 ended their unbeaten record and it was the defeat to the Utah Utes in Week 12 which ended the Ducks' chances of making the final four.
They will be looking for revenge after beating rivals Oregon State in Week 13 to win the Pac-12 North. The Ducks will feel they can show a lot more than they did in the blowout to the Utes, but Utah won five games in a row to win the Pac-12 South as they look for a first Championship to finally underline the strong work that Head Coach Kyle Whittingham has done in Salt Lake City.
It was the dominance at the line of scrimmage that helped the Utah Utes crush Oregon at home a couple of weeks ago, although that tape is likely going to help the Ducks make some adjustments to be a lot more competitive. Stopping the Utah Utes running the ball is a major challenge, but it is the key for Oregon if they are going to win this game, while they have to find a way to be better at organising their own rushing Offense.
That looks a tall task for the Oregon team on either side of the ball when you consider how strong Utah have looked down the stretch, although the pressure of making history can weigh down on the Utes. The Ducks have experience of winning Pac-12 Championships having done so in each of the last two seasons and that may be important for them as they look for a measure of redemption.
One of those wins came in 2019 as Oregon blew out the Utah Utes as a much bigger underdog than they have been set for the 2021 Championship Game.
However, this time I am expecting the Utah Defensive unit to be able to pin back their ears and get after Anthony Brown at Quarter Back when placing him in third and long spots on the field. Shutting down the run won't be as easy as it was in Week 12, but I expect Utah to have successes up front and that will rattle the entire game plan that Oregon will want to run.
Cameron Rising did not need to do a lot in the win a couple of weeks ago thanks to the strong performance Utah had on the ground, but he has managed games effectively. This season he has 17 Touchdown passes with just 3 Interceptions and the Quarter Back will feel his Offensive Line can help establish the run to keep him in front of the chains.
In recent games, Oregon have not been able to generate much of a pass rush and I expect Rising to have time when he does step back to throw, but being in third and manageable spots should make things more comfortable.
I do really like Utah here, even though I have to respect the difficulty involved in beating the same opponent in quick succession. The Utes will know the Oregon Ducks are going to be better than what they saw in Week 12, but I still like Utah at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that could separate them on the day.
I also have to respect the fact that the Ducks have a decent record against the spread when set as the underdog, while Utah have not played well in neutral site games. Utah have covered in two of the last three between these teams and I think this current squad can make history by helping the Utes overcome the Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship Game and cover the mark set in this one.
Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: Nothing is really going to change the Georgia Bulldogs (12-0) outlook when it comes to earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff, but this is the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs did win the Championship in 2017, but that is the sole time in twelve years that a team from the SEC East have ended up as Champions and the Bulldogs want to underline their place as the top team in College Football.
The pressure is really on for their opponents, the Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1), who barely hung on to beat the Auburn Tigers last week. A defeat there would have ended Alabama's hopes of defending the National Championship they won in 2020, but it will be difficult for a two loss Crimson Tide to make the PlayOff unless results go their way in Week 14.
The Crimson Tide have not looked like a vintage version of their teams of recent memory, but they are a team that has high ambitions every season. Failing to reach the PlayOff would be a huge blow, but the layers don't really believe in them as they have been set as a relatively big underdog in the Championship Game.
Inconsistent performances throughout the regular season are the foundation for that position, but the Alabama Crimson Tide are also facing a Georgia Bulldogs team that have looked the clear Number 1 team in the nation for some time. This is the toughest Defensive unit that the Crimson Tide will have faced in 2021 and the struggles against the Tigers in Week 13 will really worry Alabama fans.
Alabama have not really been performing to the level we have come to expect and the real problems have been on the Offensive Line where they have had issues establishing the run and in pass protection. The Crimson Tide are not expected to have a lot of joy running up against the Georgia Defensive Line and it means a difficult day in the office for Bryce Young.
He was Sacked multiple times by the Auburn Tigers in Week 13 as Alabama barely survived, but this week the Georgia pass rush could create even more havoc in the backfield. With an Offensive Line struggling, I expect the Bulldogs to pin their ears back and hit Young often and it is going to protect the Secondary.
Bryce Young has to be credited for largely looking after the ball, but moving the chains on any consistent basis is going to be a huge challenge for him. It may mean Alabama need to lean on their Defensive unit to try and keep them in this SEC Championship Game.
Georgia have impressed massively on the Defensive side of the ball, but it has not been as easy for them on the other side- they have looked better in recent games, but Georgia are now going up against a fairly tough Alabama Defensive unit that will believe they can produce the big plays to keep this one close.
The Bulldogs have been a bullying unit through their Offensive Line and that has meant offering plenty of pass protection and paving the road for some big gains. Doing so against Alabama will be a different test, but the feeling is that Georgia are stronger at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that is where they are going to win this game.
Stetson Bennett is likely to be the starter for the Georgia Bulldogs at Quarter Back and there are one or two holes in this Alabama Secondary that he can exploit. He will want to avoid mistakes that may offer encouragement for the underdog, but the feeling is that Bennett will be in better spots than Bryce Young and that should see him make the plays that bring the Championship back to Georgia for the first time in four years.
The Bulldogs are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen as the favourite on a neutral site.
Unsurprisingly, Alabama have a solid 4-1 record against the spread in their last five when set as the underdog, but this may be a step too far for this version of the Crimson Tide and I like Georgia to underline their credentials as potential National Champions by possibly knocking out a big rival on their way to a SEC Championship.
MY PICKS: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Utah Utes - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Appalachian State Mountaineers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
San Diego State Aztecs - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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