The Christmas and New Year period is a busy one with time being spent with loved ones and so this thread is published a little later than planned.
Of course I cannot begin to write down any thoughts about Week 17 without thinking about John Madden who sadly passed away a few days ago. His Coaching days were over before my time, but Madden was a key voice in the big games and it is the famous game on which is name is attached which was a real important part of my childhood and helped form my love for the NFL.
If you haven't seen it yet, watch the Madden Documentary which ironically came out just days before he passed to see how important John was to the entirety of the sport. He will be missed...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team Pick: The NFC East has been won by the Dallas Cowboys, but there is still hope for the Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) and Washington Football Team (7-8) when it comes down to earning a place in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs. It is the Philadelphia Eagles who have been trending in a positive direction and they have their own destiny within their hands as they can secure a top seven place by winning their last two regular season games, while the Football Team are in a much more desperate position.
Even two wins may not be good enough for the Washington Football Team, but this is also a team that has been hit hard by Covid issues and injury down the stretch and who will do well to make up for those players missing out. Antonio Gibson is the big absentee in Week 17 of the season and I do think the Football Team are going to find it difficult to replace his work.
Washington were absolutely embarrassed on Sunday Night Football last week when blown out by the Dallas Cowboys and it led to team-mates punching one another on the sidelines. Frustration was clear on the face of all of the players as Taylor Heinicke struggled at Quarter Back and the feeling is that Ron Rivera will need to make some big decisions in the off-season to get Washington back on track.
The Eagles are also without their top Running Back Miles Sanders, while Jordan Howard is a doubt too. Boston Scott may end up being the lead Back on the day, but the Eagles have a dual-threat at Quarter Back in Jalen Hurts and the system put together has really been one that has appealed to the players on the Offensive side of the ball.
It is a scheme that has seen the Eagles pile up some big yards on the ground and the same happened when they faced the Football Team in Week 15. I think they can pick up from where they left off with Scott capable of doing enough with the ball in his hand and Jalen Hurts likely to also have some big plays on the ground against a Washington Defensive Line which has not been able to clamp down on the run up front.
Running the ball should open things up for the Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back when he steps back to throw down the field and I think he will be able to make some big plays. The pass rush should be negated by keeping the team in third and short and the Football Team have injuries and key players absent in the Secondary too, which bodes well for Jalen Hurts as he pushes the Eagles to the brink of earning a spot in the PlayOffs.
On the other side of the ball, Washington would have struggled to run the ball with Antonio Gibson as the main Running Back and it is likely to be much tougher without him. The Eagles should be able to put Taylor Heinicke under pressure with the struggles of the Football Team Offensive Line in pass protection, and I think that will force the Quarter Back into mistakes that cost his team last week.
Philadelphia are now 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven games as the favourite, while Washington are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven home games. The Football Team are also 8-20-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine games against the NFC East and I do think they are short-handed and will be worn down by the Eagles much in the same way as they were a couple of weeks ago.
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans Pick: History has been made by the Miami Dolphins (8-7) after becoming the first team in the NFL to have won seven straight and lost seven straight in the same season. They are looking to win an eighth game in a row as the Dolphins have moved back into the top seven of the AFC after a win over a injury hit New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football and Miami will be playing in the post-season if they are able to win their remaining two games.
It cannot be disguised that the Dolphins have had this seven game winning run largely against the weaker teams in the NFL or those that have been missing key personnel, but games against the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans (10-5) look much more difficult. The Titans earned a very important win in Week 16 against the San Francisco 49ers and now are a game away from locking up the AFC South and earning a home game in the PlayOff, while they are a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC to earn a Bye through the Wild Card Round.
Both teams have plenty to achieve in this game and the return of AJ Brown proved to be the spark that the Titans needed to win in Week 15 and I think it gives the Titans a different feel to their Offensive play-calling. Tennessee have not been the same without Derrick Henry, but they were not helped with the injury to Brown and his return was huge for former Miami Quarter Back Ryan Tannehill who has rejuvenated his career in Nashville.
Ryan Tannehill will be tested by the much improved Miami Defensive unit, which is healthier and who have been strong in all three units on this side of the ball. You do have to wonder how the Dolphins will be able to handle arguably the best Offense they have faced over their seven game winning run, but an improved Defensive Line should be able to at least force Tannehill to beat them through the air.
Without Derrick Henry it has been much harder for the Titans to run the ball with the same force as they have done previously and it has been an issue for the Offensive Line. Over the last few games the Miami pass rush has also heated up and I do think they are going to get after their former Quarter Back and it will also help the Dolphins Secondary in trying to slow down the Number One Receiver AJ Brown.
The Dolphins will feel their Defensive unit can keep this game competitive, but they will need Tua Tagovailoa to continue to show that he can be the Quarter Back of the franchise going forward. It has been a time when the Dolphins have had to rely on the pass to keep the ball moving on this side of the ball and they are not likely to have a lot of running room in this Week 16 game against a very tough Tennessee Defensive Line.
Jayden Waddle and Mike Gesicki are key Receivers for the Dolphins, but it will not be easy for the Miami Offense to convert on a regular basis if they have been left in third and long spots. Tua Tagovailoa is going to face some pass rush pressure and the Dolphins have to play a clean game to have any chance to win on the road at a very tough Stadium in cold weather.
I do worry how Miami will cope with conditions in Nashville, but this feels like a game in which both Defenses will believe they can get on top of their battles and a low-scoring game is expected. That means the points on offer for the underdog look appealing, even if Miami still have to prove themselves having beaten some bad teams to move back above 0.500 for the season.
The Dolphins are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the road underdog and Miami have thrived as an underdog with Brian Flores as Head Coach.
Mike Vrabel is another top Head Coach who gets the best out of the Titans and they are a very strong home team, but I think this could come down to a Field Goal either way with turnovers likely to be a big part of the outcome. The Miami pass rush are capable of being the big impact makers on the day and I think the Dolphins can do enough to keep this one close.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Covid issues are having a big impact on the NFL, although the new rules about players needing to isolate for five days will help. It means those players can return if they are able to provide negative Covid tests, although it does make it a little more difficult to make Picks when you are not sure who is going to suit up.
In Week 16, one of the big storylines is the status of Carson Wentz for the Indianapolis Colts (9-6) who can almost secure a spot in the PlayOffs with a victory. There is a considerable drop off from Carson Wentz to Sam Erhlinger and so you can understand why the Colts were as keen to get Wentz back as they have been.
They even made a call to veteran and former Colts Quarter Back Philip Rivers to see if he would think about returning if there are long-term complications for Wentz, but the Quarter Back is available by all reports and the Colts are big favourites to beat the Las Vegas Raiders (8-7).
It has been a really difficult season for the Raiders, who have lost their Head Coach mid-season and had one of their top Receivers arrested since then, but they are still in a position to work their way through to the PlayOffs. A win is all the Raiders need to do this week to keep hopes alive in Week 18, but that is not going to be easy and they are going to have to find a way to keep Jonathan Taylor contained.
Jonathan Taylor has had a huge year for the Colts and I think he should be one of the leading players in line to win the MVP, but it does feel like the Tennessee Titans have done just enough to make sure Indianapolis have to think about the Wild Card places. One more win should be good enough for the Colts, but they will need Taylor at his best against a tough Raiders Defensive Line who have shown improvement when it comes to shutting down the run.
Even then, it is hard to see them putting a full contain on Jonathan Taylor. However, I do think the Raiders can do enough on this side of the ball to force Carson Wentz to try and dink and dunk down the field and that should mean the Raiders can restrict the scoring of the Colts to some extent.
With that in mind, it should be possible for the Raiders to keep this one close if Derek Carr is having one of his better games at Quarter Back- he can be guilty of some very poor decision making and Carr has been without key Receivers down the stretch as he has tried to keep the Raiders alive in the very competitive AFC.
Derek Carr will be desperate to have Darren Waller back, although the Tight End is a game time decision, while better play-calling should give the Raiders a chance of winning this game. They have to lean on Josh Jacobs at Running Back after the big performance in Week 16 and it will be possible for the Running Back to find holes up front against a Colts Defensive Line which has found it tough to stop the run down the stretch.
Running the ball should open up the play-book for Derek Carr and I do think the Las Vegas Raiders can do enough with all of the points they are getting in this one.
Revenge should be on the minds of the Las Vegas players having been blown out at home in December 2020, but the Raiders did win here in 2019.
I have been impressed with the way the Indianapolis Colts have played this season, but I am not sure how good they actually are- the Raiders are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog and I think they can make use of the points in this game and do enough at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to keep this on competitive.
MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Las Vegas Raiders + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
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