A couple of early setbacks on Day 2 at the Australian Open proved to be just that, setbacks, and a recovery from the remaining Tennis Picks on the day has meant a solid opening First Round is in the books.
This is not the time to be celebrating anything truth be told, but it does lay the foundation for a potentially strong tournament after the upheaval of the last two seasons.
The Second Round begins at Melbourne Park on Wednesday as Day 3 gets underway and you can see my Tennis Picks below.
So far the tournament has largely avoided any shocks, but there have been a couple of epic matches which bodes well for the remainder of the Australian Open. Like so many other tennis fans, on court events are what we are hoping to be reading about and not the continued issues facing Novak Djokovic after the French Open looks to become the latest Grand Slam that will insist on vaccination for all competitors.
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: The early Rounds of the Grand Slam will not be a major factor in determining who will be around at the business end of the tournament, but the top names are simply trying to move through the draw without too much energy being wasted. In something of a surprise, Rafael Nadal will not be involved in the Night Session in either of his first two matches and that may be more of a problem for the former Champion here as we get further into the draw.
Conditions are different enough from the day to night in Melbourne that you would want to become accustomed to playing in both and preferably before you have to take on an opponent that may cause plenty of problems anyway. That is not likely to be the case for Rafael Nadal on Day 3 at the Australian Open and so he may be a touch frustrated that he has not been scheduled to play much later in the day.
Ultimately you have to put those frustrations aside and Rafael Nadal could potentially face a top opponent in the Third Round so he may soon get his chance in the Night Session. For now the focus has to be on making this Second Round match as comfortable as his First Round match ended up being and I do think Rafael Nadal has every chance of doing that.
He is facing a Qualifier in Yannick Hanfmann who beat a fatigued home favourite Thanasi Kokkinakis in the First Round without dropping a set. It was an impressive win for the German, but Yannick Hanfmann is going to have to up his level a couple of gears at the very least if he is going to be competitive in this match.
Yannick Hanfmann has really been serving well in his four match winning run in Melbourne, but those are numbers he is unlikely to be able to sustain and especially not against someone like Rafael Nadal. This is the first time Hanfmann will be playing a top 100 Ranked opponent in the draw and in 2021 his numbers against those opponents on the hard courts were not that impressive.
The one that stands out is that Yannick Hanfmann has held just 68% of service games played and that has put a huge amount of pressure on the return of serve. I expect Rafael Nadal to exert that pressure throughout the time they spend together on court, although the match is likely to be tighter than the win Rafael Nadal had over this opponent on his favourite surface at the French Open in 2019.
On that occasion Yannick Hanfmann won just six games, but you can add a couple more to that total and still believe Rafael Nadal will be able to pull clear and cover this mark.
Denis Shapovalov - 5.5 games v Soonwoo Kwon: Both of these players spent over three hours on court to win their opening matches at the Australian Open, but you don't anticipate that being a big problem for Denis Shapovalov and Soonwoo Kwon at this stage of the season. You have to believe that both will be confident in themselves having to battle through matches, but I also think the higher Ranked Denis Shapovalov has enough of an edge in this one to be deserving of being backed for a cover.
I tend to believe that Denis Shapovalov is a little over-rated by the layers- as good as a player as he clearly is, the return game continues to be a work in progress and that puts a lot of pressure on his serve. It also makes it hard to believe in him when it comes to very high spreads at the Grand Slam tournaments, although this one looks just short enough.
The Canadian helped his nation win the ATP Cup earlier this month and so he has to be confident, while he did have a strong run at Wimbledon last year in between disappointing Third Round exits at both the Australian and US Opens. Denis Shapovalov is still young enough to believe more is to come, but his hard court numbers are far from impressive and even this season his 4-1 record has been built on tight margins.
However, I do think the match up presents a good chance for Denis Shapovalov to earn a relatively comfortable passage through to the Third Round. He is facing Soonwoo Kwon who needed five back and forth sets to move through to the Second Round, but who has struggled to really fulfil some of the potential he has shown.
Soonwoo Kwon has only made the Third Round of one previous Grand Slam and his performances before the Australian Open have been a little inconsistent. The South Korean does not have the same service potential as Denis Shapovalov, but he is the superior returner in this match and he will have to try and put his opponent under pressure with that shot.
It is a huge challenge for him though and the numbers dip significantly when Soonwoo Kwon has played top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. That has been the case on serve and return and he was also beaten pretty easily by Denis Shapovalov eighteen months ago at the US Open in four sets.
Much is going to depend on Denis Shapovalov and his return game, but I think he will see enough balls to get back in play to work his way into a position to win this Second Round match. The cover may be a little touch and go at times, but I think the Canadian will have the opportunities to find the breaks to get into a position to do that.
Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: The middle couple of sets were a little more difficult for Hubert Hurkacz than they perhaps should have been, but the Seeded player will be glad to have gotten through to the Second Round. The extra energy wasted could be a concern later in the tournament if Hubert Hurkacz is not able to make up for that time by coasting through a couple of other matches before the business end of the Australian Open.
He is going to be playing a veteran in the Second Round after Adrian Mannarino beat a home player in the First Round and he spent a very similar time on the court as Hubert Hurkacz. The five sets will have sapped a bit more emotional energy, but Adrian Mannarino is going to have to step up his level to be competitive in this one.
Before the Australian Open began, Adrian Mannarino suffered two pretty comfortable losses to players Ranked outside the top 50 and his numbers from 2021 showed a decline from a player that may be thinking about calling time on his career. The Frenchman has always had a relatively vulnerable serve, despite the lefty stance it is coming out of, and Adrian Mannarino's return game suffered which puts him under double the pressure on his own serve.
In the small sample of matches played this month, Adrian Mannarino has only won 59% of the service points played and I think that is something that Hubert Hurkacz can exploit. No one is going to confuse Hurkacz with one of the top return players on the Tour, but he is solid at this side of his game and over the last twelve months the Pole has broken in 20% of return games played.
That is a decent number and I think Hubert Hurkacz may have a touch more success in this match.
When these players met on an indoor hard court in 2021, Hurkacz created nine break points against the Adrian Mannarino serve in two sets, although he will have to serve a little better than he did that day. I think it is possible for Hubert Hurkacz who has some solid service numbers over the last twelve months and I think that will lay the foundation for him to come through with a good win.
He should have the break point opportunities to cover what is a considerable line, but Hubert Hurkacz managed to edge past it in the First Round and I think he will be able to do the same in the Second Round as the veteran Adrian Mannarino's serve will likely let him down.
Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: There have been a number of players that have come out of Spain over the last couple of decades that have not only been operating at a high level on the Tour, but who have gone on and won Grand Slam titles. The most famous is obviously Rafael Nadal, but the next big star from the nation will be looking to continue his development in the positive direction it has been heading.
Carlos Alcaraz win the Next Gen Finals at the end of 2021 and that was after he reached the Quarter Final at the US Open playing some stunning tennis. The 18 year old has produced some big numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months and his big win in the First Round will have given the youngster plenty of confidence.
That win did come against an overmatched opponent, but Carlos Alcaraz is going to be facing a veteran in Dusan Lajovic in the Second Round and that is going to present a different kind of challenge. Dusan Lajovic needed all five sets and almost three and a half hours to beat Marton Fucsovics in the First Round, but he is a player that has not really produced his best form on the hard courts.
He is a solid player and the Serb will feel he can out-think a younger opponent, but his serve is vulnerable and Carlos Alcaraz is a player with a very effective return that is going to put Dusan Lajovic under real pressure.
At 18 years old, Alcaraz is likely going to develop the serve in the years ahead, but it is still an effective enough weapon to believe he can contain the threat that Dusan Lajovic is going to pose in the Second Round. The latter has broken in 21% of return games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months and I am not sure that is going to be good enough to beat a progressing player like Carlos Alcaraz.
The early sets will likely see Dusan Lajovic pushing Carlos Alcaraz, but I expect the latter to show better fitness the longer it goes and his tennis should be more telling at that stage too. With the return performances at the level they have been, I think the Spaniard will find the breaks of serve to pull clear of this wide spread and earn another good win on the hard courts as Carlos Alcaraz looks for another run to the second week of a Grand Slam tournament.
Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 games v Xiyu Wang: The top of the WTA Tour has had something of a vacuum to fill for a couple of years and it has seen players really improve their positioning in the World Rankings. Some have really come out of left field and French Open Champion Barbora Krejcikova is one of those and enters the Australian Open as the World Number 4.
This player is a genuine threat to win the tournament and she never lost faith in her ability to be a very good Singles player, despite mainly having success as a Doubles player earlier in her career. Barbora Krejcikova has reached the second week of three straight Grand Slam tournaments and she has not allowed her French Open win to prevent her from competing at a high level.
All credit has to be given to Barbora Krejcikova for that as many first time Slam Champions have struggled to back up the new expectations that are placed on their shoulders. That has not been the case for the Czech player who reached a career best World Ranking in November 2021 and reaching the Final in Sydney before the Australian Open began will only have increased the confidence of a steady player.
Barbora Krejcikova has been impressing with her return game this month and it was key to crushing Andrea Petkovic in the First Round, while the serve continues to be a strong weapon for her. That should give her the real edge in this Second Round match against Xiyu Wang as Barbora Krejcikova looks to make up for the defeat suffered to this opponent in their sole professional meeting.
That was back in 2018 and while Barbora Krejcikova has pushed on, Xiyu Wang has yet to crack the top 100 of the World Rankings. A good, solid First Round win will give Wang some belief, but she was well beaten by Rebecca Peterson in a warm up event leading to the Australian Open, and a poor record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts throughout her career will not see Xiyu Wang given much support in the market.
Xiyu Wang has lost six straight matches to top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface, but she is a competitive player and I do think Barbora Krejcikova is going to have to be focused to win this match with room to spare. I do believe the higher Ranked player is going to have the edge on the serve and I expect Krejcikova to attack the Wang second serve, which could see her pull clear the longer this match goes on.
It is a wide mark in a best of three set match, but I think Barbora Krejcikova can exert her extra quality and produce another comfortable win in the tournament.
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Madison Brengle: You can never really tell how far away Naomi Osaka is from losing her focus on her tennis, especially with the way the last eighteen months have gone for the multiple time Grand Slam Champion. Being back on the hard courts is where Naomi Osaka feels at her best though and the former World Number 1 has won both the Australian Open and the US Open twice already.
Not many could rule a line through Naomi Osaka from winning another hard court Grand Slam title, but she is in a tough portion of the draw and has to make it out of the first week without exerting too much energy. She was a pretty comfortable winner in the First Round, but Naomi Osaka lost control of the match a couple of times and that may be an issue for her when she reaches the second week.
I do fully expect Naomi Osaka to work her way past Madison Brengle in the Second Round, especially as the veteran American player has struggled when it comes to competing with the better players on the Tour. At 31 years old, Madison Brengle is unlikely to surpass her career best Number 35 World Ranking, while she has a 3-11 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.
Her defensive style of tennis makes it tough to be an effective returner against the better players on the Tour and I do think Madison Brengle has lost a slight step around the court. The American has a really poor serve too, which can be exploited by some of the huge hitters at the top of the WTA Tour and I would be very surprised if Naomi Osaka is not able to get on top of Madison Brengle here.
There are one or two issues that prevent Naomi Osaka from really cruising past opponents and that is a relatively average return game she possesses. The serve keeps her in a strong position on the hard courts, but Osaka wins less than 44% of return points on the hard courts, although the small sample of 2022 has shown the Japanese player to have been more productive on this side of her game.
Even when you just consider Naomi Osaka's return numbers against players Ranked outside the top 50, winning less than 43% of return points in those matches over the last couple of years. However, this is a match in which Naomi Osaka should be able to get a hold of the return against the Madison Brengle serve and especially the second serve.
It is a big spread for a player with a return game that needs to be improved, but I think Naomi Osaka is going to be too strong for the veteran Madison Brengle and it will see her pull clear in the second set for serene progress to the next Round.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carlos Alcarez - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cristian Garin @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominik Koepfer + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 9-3, + 9.58 Units (24 Units Staked, + 39.92% Yield)
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