It's good to have some Tennis to talk about as fans of the sport, but the spectre of Novak Djokovic is going to hang over the Australian Open for at least a few more days.
The new rules that have been announced in France means Novak Djokovic could be in a spot of bother if he wishes to compete in the second Grand Slam of the season too and I do think the World Number 1 has some big decisions to make.
He is either going to succumb and accept vaccination or, perhaps a bigger story, is that Novak Djokovic will decide he is going to retire from playing on the Tour. With the issues in France and the United States, Novak Djokovic may not be able to compete in the really big events and you would have to wonder if he is going to push himself at other events when it has become very clear that history is on his mind.
It would be an amazing turn of events and something that will dominate the headlines each time we get close to a Grand Slam event- I actually thought Novak Djokovic had a stronger chance of overcoming Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slam mark than even Serena Williams. This is a story that will not go away quietly and I expect players to continue to be asked about the Djokovic situation at least through the remainder of the First Round.
Day 1 was a pretty positive start for the Tennis Picks in 2022 as I look to have a much more consistent season than 2021- it was a mixed year with the Grand Slam results, but also a season in which I did not want to make as many Picks with so much uncertainty about the status of tournaments and whether players were going to compete as usual.
2022 should be a much more familiar looking calendar barring another variant coming into play and the start on Monday is one to build upon.
Of course it is only a start and the next fortnight there will be some ups and downs before the final results of the tournament become clear.
Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Alex Molcan: Over the last couple of years, Casper Ruud has begun to fulfil some of the early promise and he has moved into the top ten of the World Rankings. There is little doubt that Casper Ruud is at his best on the clay courts, but he has shown significant improvement on the hard courts and that makes the Norwegian a potential Grand Slam threat throughout the year.
In the last twelve months, Casper Ruud has continued to produce big serves at the right time, which is so important on the hard courts. However, it is the return aspect of his game which has sparked the strong number of wins on the surface and I think that makes Casper Ruud a player that can, and perhaps should, make it through the early Rounds of the Slams without having too many difficulties.
He has been paired to play Alex Molcan in the First Round of the Australian Open, another much improved player on the Tour who reached the Third Round at the US Open after getting through the Qualifiers. That has helped Alex Molcan reach a career high World Number 74 in the Rankings and that means automatic entry into the Grand Slam events as he looks to take a big scalp.
Alex Molcan reached the Quarter Final in a warm up event held in Melbourne ahead of the Australian Open, but he lost to all top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2021 and I am not putting a great stock in the win over David Goffin earlier this month. The numbers in those matches against top 50 Ranked players shows the Slovakian has found his serve under constant pressure, while he has not really been able to get into the return games in the manner he would have liked either.
I think that will potentially show up in this First Round match too.
One of the concerns I have with Casper Ruud is that he has yet to really get to grips with taking on the top players in the Rankings on this surface. However, that has not been the case when he has taken on players outside the top 20 and over the last twelve months Casper Ruud has a 24-2 record against those opponents.
His numbers in those twenty-six matches are really impressive- Casper Ruud has held 89% of the service games played, but also broken in 29% of return games played. Nerves can play a part in the opening Rounds of a Grand Slam, but I think this is a match that Casper Ruud can get on top of and eventually pull clear of Alex Molcan on his way through to the Second Round.
Andy Murray - 1.5 sets v Nikoloz Basilashvili: Three years ago, Andy Murray played on a Protected Ranking and was beaten in the First Round of the Australian Open. Hip issues meant rumours surrounded his future on the Tour, but even Andy Murray was a touch embarrassed when the Open played a 'retirement video' for him at the end of the defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut.
Not many would have expected to see him back, but Andy Murray is still fighting to play on the Tour having gone through multiple surgeries and had a metal implant placed in his hip. Now he has been given a Wild Card to play in Melbourne again and Murray is coming in off a run to the Sydney Final in the final warm up event before heading to the first Grand Slam of the 2022 season.
He looks happier with his fitness, but the British player may have hoped for a touch easier draw than the one that has been given to him in the First Round. The former World Number will take on the Number 21 Seed in the draw when opposed by Nikoloz Basilashvili and there have been a lot of plaudits about the way the Georgian goes about his tennis.
No one will doubt the power that comes from the Nikoloz Basilashvili racquet, but he can be erratic and someone like Andy Murray may feel he can frustrate him into mistakes. However, these two met in Sydney last week and it was a really tough match for both players that needed the final set decider and over three hours spent on the court.
It was Andy Murray who came away with the victory, but both players created a host of break points and this looks to be another grinder for whoever comes out on top. It is a mental advantage having beaten Nikoloz Basilashvili and Andy Murray also saw off this opponent at Wimbledon last year, while it will be the second serve of both players that has to be working well if they are going to move through to the Second Round.
As hard as Nikoloz Basilashvili hits the ball, he is an inconsistent performer on the hard courts with an attitude that suggests he does not worry about missing balls. His numbers back up the inconsistency and the Seeded player has lost all three matches played in 2022, which could show up in the tight moments in this match.
Andy Murray is struggling to reach the levels he still believes he possesses, at least on a consistent basis, but I think his defensive nous can show up in this First Round match. I would not be surprised if both players win a set, but the feeling is that Andy Murray's movement around the court can extract one or two more mistakes out of the Nikoloz Basilashvili at key moments and see the British player cover the set handicap.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Mikael Ymer: Novak Djokovic is out of the draw and that means there will be a number of players that feel they can make their mark on the first Grand Slam of the 2022 season. In recent years Stefanos Tsitsipas has played well in Melbourne where a large Greek community comes out and supports one of their own, but you can't ignore the fact that he has been struggling with one or two fitness issues.
Instead of hearing much about how he is feeling, Stefanos Tsitsipas has been faced with questions about Novak Djokovic and has been one of the more outspoken players on the Tour that has moved against the World Number 1. I don't think that affects the support he will get from the crowd, but I do wonder how others will see him moving forward and whether that impacts his tennis for the short term at least.
The Greek player does have some solid numbers on the hard courts, but he was not able to finish out the ATP Finals in November and has only played a match and a half in preparation for the Australian Open. That does raise some questions about where he is physically and mentally for an attack on a Grand Slam, although I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas will be confident in the First Round match that has been presented to him.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has beaten Mikael Ymer comfortably in both previous matches played on the Tour and that includes a thumping straight sets win here in Melbourne last year. In the two matches against Ymer, Stefanos Tsitsipas has held 95% of the service games played and has broken in 55% of return games and there is no doubt the match up is one that he will enjoy.
Mikael Ymer is someone who will work hard and he will look to drag his opponent into deep waters to test his fitness, while he has produced a 2-1 record in preparation for the Australian Open. However, the hard court numbers have highlighted what is a vulnerable serve and the Swedish player could find himself under pressure throughout this match if Tsitsipas is anywhere near close to full health.
The underdog has shown he can be a very efficient return player on the hard courts, but those have largely been produced against players lower down the Rankings and on the Challenger Tour. Mikael Ymer has only broken in 21% of return games played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in his career and that puts a lot of pressure on a serve that he has managed to look after in 69% of games played.
My biggest concern has to be wondering if Stefanos Tsitsipas has enough in the tank to compete, although that may only show up further down the line as the competition ramps up in the Australian Open. This is a match that should be one he can feel relaxed within and that should see the higher Ranked player come through with a relatively straight-forward win on the day.
Daniel Evans - 5.5 games v David Goffin: The pandemic has had an impact on all parts of life around the world, but injuries at the same time have hurt David Goffin. He missed much of 2021 and has returned this month looking to get back to winning tennis matches as David Goffin has found his World Ranking slipping back down to Number 45.
More slips are expected for the Belgian and that is a worry as it will mean having to try and Qualify for some of the bigger events on the Tour. That makes the Australian Open very important for David Goffin as he looks to prevent falling much more in the World Rankings, but he could have asked for a much better First Round match.
David Goffin had to retire from his last match with Andy Murray and that drops him to 2-2 for the 2022 season, but you can't ignore the fact that he has also produced pretty average hard court numbers since the start of the 2019 season. I do think Goffin is talented, but he is a vulnerable player on the surface and tends to be a touch over-rated, while you cannot ignore the obvious fitness issues.
An opponent like Daniel Evans is likely going to push David Goffin and try and keep him out on the court for as long as possible if he needs to wear him down. It has been an up and down career for Daniel Evans, but the British player will believe there is an opportunity to break the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time and he played well at the ATP Cup before reaching the Semi Final in Sydney last week.
Having a Tuesday opening match scheduled in Melbourne should help Evans, although he is another player that can be vulnerable on the hard courts because of a relatively weak serve. The return game is where Daniel Evans gives himself a chance and I think he will be confident in a match up against an opponent he has beaten twice in their two previous matches on the Tour.
Daniel Evans was fortunate to beat David Goffin on the clay courts of Monte Carlo last year, but was a little better in seeing off this opponent in 2020 at the ATP Cup. I do find it tough to back someone who can be as vulnerable on serve as Daniel Evans can be, but he should be the player with the superior fitness at this stage of the season and I think that shows up against an opponent he knows he can beat.
It is a big spread, I have no qualms about that, but I do think the British player can move through to the Second Round as he wears down David Goffin in this Day 2 contest.
Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 sets v Liam Broady: The restrictions in Australia meant Nick Kyrgios took large chunks of the 2021 season to become involved in charity work and setting up his foundation and that meant a lot of time off the Tour. He was supposed to play in the warm up events before the start of the Australian Open, but Nick Kyrgios admitted he had picked up a positive test for Covid and that means he has played no competitive tennis since being dumped out of the US Open last year.
A turbulent relationship off the court looks to be behind Nick Kyrgios and he has loved to play in Australia throughout his career, with both factors likely to see the best from the enigmatic player. He had an even longer lay off between his last 2020 match and the Australian summer in 2021 and Nick Kyrgios played well enough to believe he can find the tennis needed to win this First Round match here.
Failing to play any competitive tennis is a worry, but Nick Kyrgios did say he had no symptoms from Covid and the hope is that he will be ready to compete at a high level. He has had issues with his asthma this month too so the preparation has been far from ideal, but a huge serve will always give Nick Kyrgios a chance to win matches and especially with a loud crowd behind him.
He is a favourite to beat Liam Broady in the First Round, but the layers are not entirely sure about the Nick Kyrgios fitness judging by the odds. Liam Broady should be battle hardened having come through the Qualifiers and especially as the British player had to shake off losing the first set in all three matches won in Melbourne.
While he made a career high World Ranking at the end of 2021, Liam Broady has yet to crack the top 100 as a professional player and there is a considerable gap to bridge. Liam Broady has a decent enough return, but it is a different test against someone who serves as big as Nick Kyrgios, while the lefty has a serve that is perhaps more vulnerable than it should be on the hard courts.
The Qualifier has yet to beat anyone Ranked inside the top 100 in Melbourne this week and it has been a difficult test for Liam Broady throughout his career. While you have to respect the fact that Broady won two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2021, you also cannot ignore the numbers which show Liam Broady held 73% of service games in those matches on this surface, while only breaking in 13% of return games.
If Nick Kyrgios is anywhere near his full readiness to compete, which I expect he will be in his home Grand Slam, I think it would be a big surprise if he cannot win this in three or four sets.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 games v Stefano Travaglia: A strong showing in a tournament in the build up to the Australian Open last season helped Stefano Travaglia into a career high World Ranking in February. Things have changed for him since then and the struggles to compete consistently above the Challenger Tour look to be beyond the Italian.
A nation that has produced some big name young stars, a veteran like Stefano Travaglia is going to have to work very hard and pick up some big wins to avoid slipping back out of the top 100 in the World Rankings. That drop will mean having to join Qualifying events for the big tournaments and it will likely mean a return to the Challenger level for a player that has had a real taste of the big events on the Tour over the last twelve months.
Stefano Travaglia has a 1-3 record in preparation for the Australian Open and the real concern is that none of the defeats came to anyone Ranked inside the top 60.
That is far from the case in the First Round at the Australian Open where Stefano Travaglia has been paired with Roberto Bautista Agut, another veteran of the Tour, but one who has considerable more success than his opponent. It will be difficult to imagine Roberto Bautista Agut getting back into the top ten of the World Rankings, but he is a solid top 20 Ranked player and the Spaniard is someone who is pretty adept on all surfaces.
He helped Spain reach the ATP Cup Final and Roberto Bautista Agut won four of the five matches in that tournament as he builds his competitiveness up for this tournament. There was a decline in the hard court numbers in 2021 compared with previous seasons, but the Spaniard served well in the ATP Cup and those matches were against some of the better players on the Tour.
Roberto Bautista Agut is someone who is comfortable returning the ball on the hard courts and I think he can put Stefano Travaglia under pressure in this one. These two met on a grass court in 2021 and it was a comfortable win for Roberto Bautista Agut with the feeling that this match is going to trend in a similar direction.
I do think the underdog can cause some problems with his own return, but in 2021 Stefano Travaglia held just 69% of the service games played on a hard court against top 50 Ranked opponents. That is where this match is expected to be lost and especially if Roberto Bautista Agut can pick up from where he left off serving at the ATP Cup.
In their sole meeting, Roberto Bautista Agut won 84% of the service points played and anything close to that mark should see him cover this spread with some room to spare.
MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Daniel Evans - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 6.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 4-1, + 4.10 Units (10 Units Staked, + 41% Yield)
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