The Super Bowl is thus going to be played in mid-February rather than the first Sunday of the month and that means we have four Divisional Games on tap this weekend.
All four games look good and I think it will be interesting to see if the two top Seeds are able to benefit from the Bye after seeing the other twelve PlayOff teams competing against one another. Both of the Number 1 Seeds are scheduled to play on Saturday to open the Divisional Round of the post-season and then we have arguably the games featuring the favourites to reach the Super Bowl on Sunday.
I cannot wait for the weekend, even if I am looking for a much better return from the NFL Picks which are not likely to match the winning season from 2020.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Earning the Number 1 Seed in the AFC has given the Tennessee Titans the Bye through the Wild Card Round, but all of the talk around the town this week will be about the impending return of Derrick Henry. The big Running Back has missed several weeks, but the additional time off to heal has given Henry every chance of suiting up in this one as he looks to help the Tennessee Titans find their way into the Super Bowl.
Mike Vrabel has to be given a lot of credit for the job he has done with the Titans and the team is plenty experienced all levels of both the Offensive and Defensive unit. The Head Coach is someone who has proven to be very effective when he has time to prepare his team and that makes the Bye Week in the Wild Card Round look all the more important for Tennessee.
Injuries on the Cincinnati Defensive Line can only be encouraging for the Titans who will look to pound the rock- they have not moved away from the run even in the absence of Derrick Henry and the Titans Offensive Line have continued to pave the way for some serious work on the ground. With their star Running Back in the starting line up, Tennessee are expected to have a lot of success against a Cincinnati Defensive Line which has given up almost 6 yards per carry across their last three games and I expect Tennessee to have a lot of success pounding the rock.
Ryan Tannehill will be another who should be able to benefit from the Offensive Line paving the way for big gains on the ground. The Quarter Back is someone who has been asked to make sure he manages the game and uses the run to set up the play-action shots down the field and I do think Ryan Tannehill will be able to have some joy doing that in this Divisional Round game.
Importantly, the run also slows down the pass rush and I expect Ryan Tannehill to have a decent showing with the Titans likely to be ahead of the chains for much of the afternoon as long as they can avoid Penalties.
The pressure will then shift to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals Offensive unit, although they showed they can handle the post-season expectations with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders in the Super Wild Card Round. The Bengals will admit they will need to be stronger to knock off the Number 1 Seed, but they are a team who will be happy to be set as the underdog.
Joe Burrow will have to show he can handle the PlayOff atmosphere on the road as he plays in this situation for the first time, but the Receivers around him certainly will believe they can win their battles on the outside. As good as the Titans are, they do give up some yards through the air and Joe Burrow is someone who is more than good enough to exploit any holes he sees.
Running the ball has not been the way forward for the Bengals in recent games and I am not sure they are going to have a lot of success trying to do that in this one. I do think Joe Mixon could make a few plays by acting as a safety blanket for his Quarter Back when he comes out of the backfield, but the main approach for the Bengals will be relying on Joe Burrow and the skilled Receivers to move the ball through the air.
He will be under some pressure at times as the Bengals Offensive Line allowed Joe Burrow to be Sacked a little too often at times and the Titans do have an effective pass rush.
Even then, I do think the Cincinnati Bengals can keep this one close with their ability to throw into the Secondary and the suggestion is that the weather will not be a factor to stop them doing that. I would not be surprised if the Titans win, but I would be disappointed if the Bengals are not able to keep this one competitive.
Tennessee have played well at home, which deserves respect, but the Cincinnati Bengals are 4-0 against the spread in their last four as the road underdog. I can't ignore the blow out win over the Miami Dolphins that the Titans put together in their last game here, but it has been rare for Tennessee to do that to opponents and Cincinnati may have enough Offensive firepower to cover as the narrow underdog.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The future remains unclear as far as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are concerned, but the Number 1 Seed in the NFC are focusing on trying to win a second Super Bowl. They might have been the sole team to earn a Bye through the Super Wild Card Round in this Conference, but I do think the Packers still have plenty to prove and I think it could be argued by fans that the winner of the other Divisional Round Game in the NFC will be the favourite to move on and represent the Conference in the Super Bowl next month.
Aaron Rodgers won't be thinking about that as he looks for one more chance to try and 'spoil' the San Francisco 49ers season- he has never forgiven the franchise from passing on him when he entered the NFL Draft, but it is the 49ers who have gotten the better of the Green Bay Packers in the PlayOffs in recent years.
In fact Aaron Rodgers has never beaten this team in the post-season and the extreme cold that could set in at Green Bay at kick off may actually go against the Quarter Back here. No one is going to make excuses for the Packers if they have to play a home game in the cold and wind, but it does hurt the game-plan and I do think it is a potentially big factor in determining the outcome of the game.
San Francisco had to dig in late on to secure their win over the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the Super Wild Card Round, but they could have suffered some big injuries on both sides of the ball. However, the good news for the 49ers is that Nick Bosa and Fred Warner look like they are both going to be able to suit up and that is huge when it comes to the way the San Francisco Defensive Line have clamped down on the run.
Both AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones could be contained on the ground and that will make it a challenge for Aaron Rodgers when it comes to trying to move the ball. At least Aaron Jones can play a part in the passing game, but failing to run the ball will mean the likes of Nick Bosa can get the pass rush cranked up and ultimately try and force Aaron Rodgers into making mistakes.
Stopping the Packers from moving the ball completely is an almost impossible task, but the 49ers have an improved Defensive unit and will feel they can at least match up effectively enough to stall some drives. That is key, because it certainly feels like San Francisco match up effectively on the other side of the ball to at least give themselves a chance of another PlayOff win over Rodgers and the Packers.
Jimmy Garoppolo almost made a fatal error in the win over the Dallas Cowboys when a late Interception gave the hosts life, but he played well enough and the Quarter Back looks to have avoided an injury that will keep him out of this Divisional Round Game. He is dealing with shoulder issues and a hand problem, but Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be asked to manage the game and the 49ers will be looking to run the ball as much as they can.
Down the stretch the San Francisco 49ers have had a lot of success running the ball and it has long been the Achilles Heel of the Green Bay Packers Defensive unit. Jaire Alexander is a big returnee in the Secondary, but the Packers Defensive Line ended the season by giving up 4.7 yards per carry on the ground and they have really been struggling down the stretch.
Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur both are very familiar with one another and will know what the other wants to do, but I am not sure the Packers will be able to stop the San Francisco 49ers who have picked up 4.5 yards per carry and run for almost 160 yards per game over their last three games.
It should mean Jimmy Garoppolo has time when he does decide to throw the ball and I think play-action could be successful, even in the tough conditions both teams will be facing. And with Deebo Samuel being a match up nightmare, I think there is every chance the 49ers can keep this close on the scoreboard as I look for another underdog to give a Number 1 Seed something to think about in the Divisional Round.
I cannot help but respect the very strong record Green Bay have as the home favourite, but San Francisco have thrived when they have been overlooked. The 49ers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and I cannot ignore how well they have played the Green Bay Packers over the years including in a narrow 2 point loss at home earlier this season.
They were struggling with injuries back then, but San Francisco look as healthy as they can be going into this Divisional Round Game and I think they will be able to keep this one within the number.
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Last season the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reached the Super Bowl by winning three times on the road, but they have the chance to get back to the big game in 2021 as long as they can hold serve at home field three times. The Green Bay Packers were beaten and that has opened the door for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to control home field, although the Los Angeles Rams will see a massive opening of their own.
An upset win for the Rams on the road will mean they will get to host the NFC Championship Game and, winning that, would mean playing a home Super Bowl.
Los Angeles are playing on a short week having been involved in the first ever Monday Night Football PlayOff Game, but they were dominant in their win over the Arizona Cardinals. It should mean they have not invested as much in the victory as they could have done and I expect a big effort from the Rams as they look to upset the odds.
Two key factors are yet to be cleared up on the Offensive side of the ball for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers- both Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Jensen were banged up in the win over the Philadelphia Eagles and being shorthanded on the Offensive Line would be a major worry for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Both of those players were back in practice on Friday, but the statuses have yet to be cleared up and it is a key factor as they look to keep the Rams pass rush from having a major impact on the game.
Last week Tom Brady was hit a few times by the Eagles and it will be much tougher to contain the Los Angeles Defensive Line with Von Miller and Aaron Donald without two of the key Offensive Linemen. I would be surprised if both are out, but it is important to keep track on their status update heading towards kick off.
Protecting Tom Brady is the key, especially as he is going in to the PlayOffs without a couple of the key Receivers. However, the Rams are down important players in the Secondary and I do think Brady has enough weapons around him to move the ball through the air in a much more consistent manner than Kyler Murray who was rattled in his first appearance in the PlayOffs.
Leonard Fournette is also activated and returning and I do think that will help give the Buccaneers the kind of balance they will need Offensively to slow down the Rams pass rush. It will also see Tom Brady be able to play out of third and manageable situations and I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can have success, but always as long as both Wirfs and Jensen suit up for the home team.
Moving the ball was not an issue for the Los Angeles Rams in their Super Wild Card Round win over the Arizona Cardinals, but I expect the challenge to be much greater than it was in that win on Monday Night Football. Cam Akers looked like he had never been away when returning for the post-season, but I think the return of some key players for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive unit helped in stopping the run last week and they can at least limit Akers much more effectively than the Cardinals did.
Keeping Matthew Stafford in third and long spots can only be a good thing for the Buccaneers, especially as the Quarter Back has yet to really prove himself at this kind of level and intensity. Matthew Stafford has been pretty well protected by the Offensive Line and he has some top Receivers around him that can help in keeping the team on the right track, but I like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and I do think they can use home field advantage to earn some revenge for a regular season defeat in Los Angeles.
The Rams have had the better of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in recent seasons and they are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog.
However, Los Angeles are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight off a blowout loss, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight home games as the favourite.
Tampa Bay have a strong record against a team with winning record and I think the spread has crossed over to a place where they can be backed to become the first favourite and home team to win in the Divisional Round. Rumours about Tom Brady perhaps considering his future plans should not affect a Quarter Back with the experience he has and I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can move through to hosting the NFC Championship Game next Sunday.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Some may feel this Divisional Round Game would have been much more deserving of being the AFC Championship Game, but the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills can't think about anything but this one where it lands. The Cincinnati Bengals will be visiting one of these teams, and the winner of this Divisional Game will be the big favourite to reach the Super Bowl.
However, picking a winner is going to be a challenge as it feels a little tough to go against either Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen after their performances in the Super Wild Card Round. They led the Chiefs and Bills respectively to 40 plus points and huge home wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots, but the challenge should be much tougher for both Quarter Backs in the Divisional Round.
Running the ball may actually be the best approach that either team can take, but the Quarter Backs are so important to Kansas City and Buffalo that it is hard to take the ball out of their hands. However, the threat posed by both Patrick Mahomes and Buffalo Bills does open things up front with teams looking to stack the Secondary and I think it will be important for both Offensive Co-Ordinators to make sure they stick to the ground game.
There is no doubt that the Buffalo Defensive Line is the weakness on a very tough unit, but you have to wonder if Andy Reid will be willing to take the patient approach to some drives. Kansas City have an Offensive Line that is capable of establishing the run and Patrick Mahomes can scramble away from pressure and make some gains on the ground, but the reality is that the Chiefs are going to want to throw the ball against a very competitive Secondary.
You can't really doubt Mahomes and I expect him to have much more success than when the Chiefs were beaten by the Bills at home in the regular season. The Receivers are good enough to make plays against their Defensive covers and I do think Kansas City will be able to sustain drives and put up some points.
In saying all that, Josh Allen has proven himself to be one of the elite Quarter Backs in the NFL and he is a huge danger both with his arm and with his legs. In recent games the Bills have also gotten a little more going from Devin Singletary and I do think the Bills Offensive Line can establish the run against the Chiefs and put the team in a very good position to keep the chains moving.
Josh Allen himself can run the ball with some huge success and even if the Kansas City Chiefs are to use a spy, that could open things up in the Secondary with the Bills pretty loaded in Offensive positions. The Quarter Back has been well protected and I think there are gaps in the Kansas City Chiefs Secondary which will see the likes of Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox produce some solid games.
Willie Gay is going to be playing for the Chiefs at Linebacker, but his arrest during the week is far from ideal preparation for this huge game and I really like the Buffalo Bills to find a way to win in a very difficult environment.
The Bills know they can win here having done so in the regular season and they are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at Arrowhead Stadium. Revenge will still be on the minds of the Buffalo Bills players having been beaten in the AFC Championship Game last January, while the Bills are also 9-3-2 against the spread in their last fourteen as the road underdog.
Buffalo have backed up big wins in a much stronger way than the Kansas City Chiefs in recent times too, but I hate backing against Patrick Mahomes who has helped the Chiefs produce a 5-0 record against the spread in their last five as the home favourite.
The Chiefs are plenty experienced as a PlayOff team too and that can be very difficult to overcome, but Buffalo look ready and I think they can win here as the underdog.
MY PICKS: Cincinnati Bengals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Wild Card: 2-5, - 6.52 Units (14 Units Staked, - 46.57% Yield)
Week 18: 6-6, - 1.16 Units (24 Units Staked, - 4.83% Yield)
Week 17: 3-4, - 2.46 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.57% Yield)
Week 16: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)
Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)
Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)
Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)
Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)
Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)
Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)
Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Season 2021: 78-77-1, - 12 Units (312 Units Staked, - 3.85% Yield)
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