It feels like the Men's tournament is a bit more of a closed shop in terms of genuine winners, but the Women's event remains wide open. Of course some will point to Ashleigh Barty has being the clear favourite, but the pressure will ramp up to win a home tournament and I do think many of the players will believe they are capable of winning a Slam considering the number of new faces that have picked up a major on this side of the Tour in recent years.
Naomi Osaka will not be one of those to add to the four Slams she has already won, but the tournaments are warming up nicely as the Third Round is completed on Saturday.
It has been a disappointing couple of days for the Tennis Picks, which is a blow after a very strong start to the Australian Open, but I am not going to get too downhearted by that. Ultimately things are still in a good position on the approach to the second week and that is the most important factor to consider.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Benoit Paire: An emotional Benoit Paire was interviewed after spending over three hours on court and needing four sets to earn his spot in the Third Round at the Australian Open. He was one of the players that faced a lot of criticism in the pandemic hit 2021 season when openly admitting he could not really raise himself for performing in front of empty stands.
You can't really blame Benoit Paire for feeling that way, but I think it was the way he would seemingly give up in matches when things were going wrong that rubbed people up the wrong way. The Frenchman has always been a player with a limited game on the hard courts, but his numbers dipped significantly in 2021 and he has dropped down to Number 56 in the World Rankings.
Getting up for this match should not be an issue for Benoit Paire with the Greek community always ready to come out and support Stefanos Tsitsipas when he is playing in Melbourne. This is a big match on a big court so I expect to see a full effort from Benoit Paire, although that should not make you lose focus on the hard court numbers which show a player that has a limited serve and who has been struggling on the return.
Stefanos Tsitsipas had a much tougher Second Round match than many may have expected, but that was largely down to playing some of the big points poorly. He created three times more break points than Sebastian Baez and I think this is a match up that Tsitsipas is going to enjoy as he looks to ease his way further into the draw.
Injury issues and some concerns about the form means Stefanos Tsitsipas has been able fly under the radar somewhat, but I think he will be happy with the results and will also feel there is more to come.
This is a very big spread for any player to cover once you start hitting this stage of the tournament, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed playing Benoit Paire and has beaten him in three straight matches. That includes two wins over him in 2021, once on the hard courts and once on the clay, when Stefanos Tsitsipas only allowed Benoit Paire to win a total of seven games.
Benoit Paire won the first meeting between the players on the hard courts, but he has lost the last two against Stefanos Tsitsipas on this surface. The Frenchman has struggled on the serve with just 55% of points won and held in 62% of the service games played, while Stefanos Tsitsipas has marks of 66% and 80% respectively.
The two wins secured by Stefanos Tsitsipas have been very comfortable and I think he is likely to enjoy the tennis he is facing, which can go a long way in making him feel easy on the court. For a top player that comfort level could see them just move through the gears and I think Stefanos Tsitsipas will be able to do that against an opponent he has been very good at dispatching in their most recent meetings.
Alex De Minaur - 7.5 games v Pablo Andujar: In recent years there has been a steady progress being made by Alex De Minaur on the ATP Tour and he reached a career best World Ranking of Number 15 back in June 2021, but the last six months have been difficult for all Australian professional tennis players. With the restrictions around the borders, many decided they would not leave home, while others perhaps were not able to perform to their best with other things on the mind.
I have to believe the whole pandemic had a big impact on Alex De Minaur who has had a tough time since June and who is coming off an average year on the hard courts, especially for the standards he has set. The Australian summer has at least offered him the chance to get his career turned back around and Alex De Minaur will be looking to reach the second week in Melbourne for the first time.
It will also be important to help him reverse the current slip down the World Rankings which would mean he will be Unseeded in the Grand Slams coming up. That can see the problems mount up for players who begin to slip, but the two wins here will have given Alex De Minaur confidence and belief in his own game.
Alex De Minaur has won six sets in a row since dropping the opener of the tournament and his serve has been very effective in the small sample size of matches played so far in 2022. Maintaining that over the course of the season will be difficult, but it will certainly make the Australian believe he can do enough to overcome Pablo Andujar in the Third Round.
It has to be seen as a surprise to see Pablo Andujar in this Round of a Grand Slam played on the hard courts, but he did manage to do the same at the US Open last year. His two wins at Melbourne Park have been impressive enough, but this is the first player Pablo Andujar is going to face that is Ranked inside the top 74 of the World and that step up could be too much to bridge.
The clay courts are unsurprisingly the favourite surface for this Spaniard, while Pablo Andujar has a very vulnerable serve on the hard courts in recent years. Holding more than 71% of service games on this surface over the course of a season has been beyond him and the early numbers in 2022 are largely down to the quality of opponent he has faced.
That is not the case in the Third Round and I think there will be a lot of pressure on the Pablo Andujar serve, which in turn puts pressure on him to find the right returns. I think he will have some success against Alex De Minaur, but I am not sure it will be enough to stay with the home player who will have the crowd right behind him and eventually I expect Alex De Minaur to move clear for a good win.
The spread has to be respected, but I think Alex De Minaur has the quality of tennis to cover on these courts.
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: There have been one or two players that have impressed on the Men's side of the tournament at the Australian Open and one of those has to be Andrey Rublev. He did not play in a warm up event before the first Grand Slam of the season began, but Andrey Rublev has really enjoyed his time at Melbourne Park and his two wins have come in dominant fashion.
However, Andrey Rublev will be the first to expect the challenge to be much greater in the Third Round than he has faced in the first two Rounds with a match against a former Grand Slam Champion in front of him. The veteran Marin Cilic is not playing at the kind of level he once did, but January has been a positive month for the Croatian and confidence will not be an issue.
There has been a clear decline in his performances on the hard courts in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and even the performances this month may be something of a mirage as to how the rest of the season will go for Marin Cilic. In his eight matches so far in 2022, the highest Ranked player that Marin Cilic has played is World Number 29 and it is a big step up to face someone like Andrey Rublev who will feel he can consolidate his place in the top ten.
The Marin Cilic serve will always be a big weapon for him, although the Croatian held just 79% of games played on the hard courts in 2021. He has looked much better this season, but, again, you have to point out the level of competition and Andrey Rublev is a pretty good return player on the surface with an aggressive approach to this side of his game.
It is an approach that has worked well against this opponent in the past and Andrey Rublev has won four matches in a row against Marin Cilic. All of those wins have come on the hard courts too and Rublev has held 88% of service games played across those compared with Marin Cilic's 69% mark.
That is a huge edge for Andrey Rublev who has won eight of the nine sets played between these opponents on the hard courts and the two wins in 2021 over Marin Cilic came in strong fashion. I think he should have too much for the veteran in this one too and I think Andrey Rublev will be able to cover this spread on the way through to the second week.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Danielle Collins - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 26-17, + 10.70 Units (86 Units Staked, + 12.44% Yield)
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