After ten days of back and forth, the World Number 1, the defending Champion and the nine time previous winner in Melbourne, Novak Djokovic, has been told he must leave the country. Honestly, it is a complete travesty with the way things have gone over the last few days and I would not be entirely surprised if Novak Djokovic never plays at this tournament again.
Like many, this is going to take a few days to really digest and I do think the early days of the tournament are going to be involving many journalists asking players for their thoughts on the situation.
I will have a fuller post for the Day 2 selections, but the Grand Slam has creeped around and that means Day 1 Picks from the First Round can be read below.
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Marcos Giron: Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will not be playing in Melbourne this year and that means Rafael Nadal has the chance of moving ahead of his rivals in terms of overall Grand Slam titles won. Unfortunately for the Spaniard, the Australian Open is the Grand Slam he has struggled at the most and I think it would take some effort for Rafael Nadal to come through and win the tournament.
He has just found a player or two too good in the second week of the Australian Open, but this is a tournament in which Rafael Nadal has played well early. He won a title in preparation for the tournament, so confidence is not going to be an issue for the former World Number 1, and I think this is a match in which he can make a strong start.
Marcos Giron is not a player that can be easily dismissed, but he is 0-2 in matches played in 2022 and it is a big test for any player lower down the Rankings to take on a top 20 opponent early in a Grand Slam. The only real hope for the American is that Nadal is perhaps a little nervous early in a big tournament, but even that feels like a stretch for Marcos Giron who has held just 60% of the service games played in Australia so far this season.
His numbers are usually much better behind that shot, but Marcos Giron is likely going to be put under pressure by Rafael Nadal who is an effective return player and one who will not take a game off.
When he has played the top players on the Tour on the hard courts, Marcos Giron has really struggled with his own return of serve and I think that could be key for Rafael Nadal when it comes to covering this spread. Rafael Nadal has broken in 32% of return games played on his way to a title win in Melbourne, although none of the opponents he has faced have been Ranked inside the top 95 and so I do think Marcos Giron is going to be a player that will hold his own a little bit more.
However, I do think this is a very tough match for the underdog and I think Rafael Nadal is going to exert his pressure on the American the longer this match goes. The spread looks like it could have been a game or more higher than it is ahead of this First Round match, but it still may be a close run thing for Rafael Nadal who may need to come through a tough opening set before beginning to really let his tennis flow.
Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 games v Egor Gerasimov: He may be best known as being the player who handed out a bagel to Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but Hubert Hurkacz is a top ten Ranked player in his own right. He has won a big title on the hard courts before at Masters level and the tall, Polish player will feel pretty comfortable in the match up.
You can't really put too much stock in the performances at the ATP Cup- Hubert Hurkacz crushed two players who are Ranked outside the top 600, but went 1-1 against the two top 20 players he met in that tournament. The preparation for the Australian Open has been a little mixed with that in mind, but Hubert Hurkacz has played well in all four matches which has to be good news for the confidence of a player that will be looking to make serious moves at Grand Slam level after the strong tournament at Wimbledon last July.
2021 was a solid year on the hard courts for Hubert Hurkacz and he is a player that will roll pretty far thanks to strong serving numbers. I expect that to be a key in this First Round match, but I also have to respect relatively decent return numbers on this surface after Hurkacz broke in 21% of return games played on the surface last year.
It is certainly something that will encourage him against Egor Gerasimov who has had a couple of decent showings in tournaments that have been played in Adelaide in preparation for the Australian Open. The Belarusian reached the Quarter Final of one of the two tournaments he has played, and Egor Gerasimov has been up against some good competition which will help the belief.
However, he has lost both previous matches against Hubert Hurkacz and that includes a relatively straight-forward loss at the US Open in August. Four breaks of serve in favour of the higher Ranked player helped Hubert Hurkacz win comfortably and he has broken in 50% of return games played against Egor Gerasimov, which is huge.
I expect Gerasimov to be better in this match, but it may not make too much of a difference if he cannot get into the Hurkacz service games and the feeling is that it may result in a relatively comfortable win for the top ten player.
Aslan Karatsev - 6.5 games v Jaume Munar: Twelve months is a long time in Tennis, but you have to credit Aslan Karatsev and the way he has handled himself after propelling himself into the limelight. Strong performances at the end of the 2020 season on the Challenger Tour was a huge confidence booster for the Russian, but not many would have taken Daniil Medvedev seriously when he spoke about having a secret weapon at the last ATP Cup.
However, Aslan Karatsev more than backed up those claims with a stunning run through to the Semi Final at the Australian Open and it took Novak Djokovic, the eventual Champion, to end the run.
For most it may have been tough to back up an unexpected success, but Aslan Karatsev has had a very big year and he is into the top 20 going into the Australian Open in 2022. There will be a real confidence going into the tournament where he will need to defend some big Ranking points after Aslan Karatsev won the title in Sydney a couple of days ago, although it is not ideal that he has had to travel to Melbourne and play on the opening day of the tournament.
The title win will help though and the numbers produced by Aslan Karatsev on the hard courts over the last couple of years gives him a big edge over Jaume Munar. The latter has produced a 3-2 record on the hard courts in preparation for the Australian Open, but the draws have been kind to Jaume Munar and this is far from an easy match for him.
The two players met at the US Open last year and it took Aslan Karatsev four sets to beat Jaume Munar, although he was the much stronger player with more break points created and I do think the Russian will be too good.
It is a big spread for a player that can be a little loose behind serve, but I do think Aslan Karatsev has a return which can put him in a position to do so as long as he doesn't play the kind of set that saw Jaume Munar pull clear at the US Open. He should be able to have success putting the Munar serve under some pressure consistently and I think that will see Aslan Karatsev find the performance to cover this mark.
Gael Monfils - 8.5 games v Federico Coria: Winning a title in Adelaide to open 2022 has backed up what was a stronger second half of the season for Gael Monfils in 2021. The veteran may have missed his window to win a Grand Slam title, but the title in Adelaide will give him confidence in a section of the draw that will be without Novak Djokovic.
The very least expectation for Gael Monfils has to be reaching the business end of the tournament now the top Seed is out of the draw and the way the tournament is shaping up. The early retirement in the second tournament in Adelaide is not a massive concern because it may have just been the fatigue of winning the title before that, and Gael Monfils is right to be set as a significant favourite in this First Round match.
He beat Federico Coria at the US Open pretty comfortably last year and the underdog is someone who has struggled on the hard courts throughout his career. A first match in 2022 may mean there is not much motivation for Coria to push himself when he considers his struggles on the surface and I do think it may see him check out of the match mentally.
Last season Federico Coria held just 63% of his service games played on the hard courts, and he was broken in 50% of the service games played against Gael Monfils at the US Open. The major problem for the Argentinian is that he has not really been able to impose himself on the return game either and it has meant Federico Coria has been well beaten in many matches on the surface.
The Frenchman's serve looked to be working well already in the Australian summer and Gael Monfils has always been an effective returner on the hard courts. His athleticism and ability to play strong defensive tennis can frustrate opponents and break down their game as they push for the lines and I think Gael Monfils will be able to do the same to Federico Coria, much as he did in New York City when the two met in the First Round.
Gael Monfils is playing better tennis now than he was back in August and I think that also shows up as he covers a very big mark in the First Round in Melbourne.
Paula Badosa - 4.5 games v Ajla Tomljanovic: The home crowd may feel their main hope of seeing an Australian Champion at the Open this season is the top Seed in the Women's draw, but another hope will begin their campaign on Monday. The eyes will be on the Rod Laver Arena where Ashleigh Barty is playing, but it is the second match in the night session on Margaret Court Arena that will feature Ajla Tomljanovic.
A career best World Ranking of Number 39 is not really suggesting that Tomljanovic is a potential Grand Slam Champion in the making, but the atmosphere should be a really good one. The Australian fans will be keen to get behind their player and look for the upset, but Paula Badosa is a much improved hard court performer and I do think she is going to have too much for Ajla Tomljanovic in this First Round match.
Paula Badosa won the title in Sydney beat four top 30 Ranked players in that run, which will obviously boost the confidence of the higher Ranked performer in this match.
There is room for improvement though and Paula Badosa has to find a way to protect her second serve a little better than she has managed in 2022 so far. Those are from a small sample of matches, but Badosa has had to get a lot more out of her return game to win matches because of the issues that can come up when the second serve is being attacked.
Ajla Tomljanovic has not played poorly in the opening tournaments of 2022, but she has been an inconsistent player on the hard courts. There are times when Tomljanovic looks like she is ready to take the next step in her career, but at the same time there are moments when she has struggled when the pressure builds and I do think it can be tough to play in front of the home fans when the expectation is perhaps higher than it should be.
These two players met in Sydney and the return of both players was massive to the outcome of the match- both played well on that side, but Paula Badosa earned more break points and I think she is playing at a level that may be difficult for Ajla Tomljanovic to keep up with.
Make no mistake, this is a big spread for a player to cover when the serve is perhaps not firing as well as it has been for Paula Badosa, but I do think the title win in Sydney will provide the boost needed to push on and beat Ajla Tomljanovic for a second time in Australia this year. The Spaniard only just covered on the day, but I think she may have just enough to do that here too, even with the spread perhaps a game higher than where I would be really comfortable.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aslan Karatsev - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
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