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Friday, 14 January 2022

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 22 2022 (January 14-19)

It has been a few GameWeeks since I posted about the Fantasy Football and Premier League and that is largely down to the incredible uncertainty that we have been dealing with.

I know some people are managing to work their way through the difficulties, but it has been a really poor season for me and one in which I can't really imagine turning around to the level I would want.

There is a long way to go and things can change, but decisions have backfired on a regular basis and the crash ahead of the New Year Day fixtures has been an absolute killer.

More on that below as we get into what was supposed to be a pretty big Double GameWeek, but what looks like could become another in which postponements end any hopes of making use of the planned transfers.


Brighton v Crystal Palace Pick: There is no love lost between rivals Brighton and Crystal Palace as they meet in the latest M23 derby fixture on Friday evening in front of the television cameras.

Both of these clubs will be feeling pretty good about the first half of the Premier League season and Brighton and Crystal Palace will be targeting memorable campaigns. That will likely mean a top half Premier League finish and a real go at winning the FA Cup and the two clubs have had recent successes in the Cup to suggest those are realistic ambitions.

The African Cup of Nations is being played this month and that does remove some key players on both sides, although the squads are looking largely pretty healthy for this time of the season.

It should mean a good fixture between two teams that have liked to get the ball down and play attacking football this season. They create chances and both Brighton and Crystal Palace have to be pleased with their defensive efforts which has helped them into the top twelve in the standings and well clear of relegation issues.

Brighton did the Premier League double over Crystal Palace in 2018/19, but in recent meetings it is The Eagles who have gotten the better of things. Late goals have won the last two derby games played at the Amex Stadium and both in favour of Crystal Palace and I do think they are being underestimated here.

They haven't scored in 3 away Premier League games, but Crystal Palace could have earned positive results at Leeds United and Manchester United in that time. The lack of goals is a concern without Wilfred Zaha, but Crystal Palace have young, talented players in the forward areas that can make it tough for Brighton.

Graham Potter's team are very difficult to play, but they will offer some chances to opponents and Brighton don't overwhelm opponents as they have some inconsistency in the final third. That could leave them vulnerable as the short priced favourites and I will back Crystal Palace with the start to earn some kind of positive result.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: At the end of last season, Chelsea and Manchester City met three times in three different competitions and it was Thomas Tuchel's men who won all three times.

It meant Chelsea came into the season with a lot of momentum as European Champions, but the consistency needed to challenge for the Premier League title looks to be beyond them. A poor run has seen Chelsea draw 4 of their last 5 Premier League games and that has seen them drop to 10 points behind Manchester City.

The pressure is on Chelsea to win here and any feeling of confidence from those wins at the end of last season may have been erased when they were completely outclassed in a 0-1 home loss to Manchester City in September.

Now they have to face a Manchester City team who have won 11 Premier League games in a row and who look to have a squad that is healthy. Unlike recent seasons, Manchester City have not had to play a League Cup Semi Final in January and that means they should be fresh and ready to compete when hosting this big Premier League game.

Chelsea were in the League Cup Semi Final and wins over Tottenham Hotspur in both Legs will have them feeling positive about themselves. Covid issues and injuries look largely behind Chelsea now, but containing Manchester City will be a huge challenge and I can understand why the home team are such short favourites to win.

I doubt it will be easy for Manchester City after Chelsea have shown better defensive composure this month, but I do think the most likely result is a narrow home win.

Manchester City have looked really strong in defensive positions and I think Chelsea will find it tough to find significant gaps in the backline for the home team. They have scored 13 goals in their last two Premier League games here, but Chelsea are expected to set themselves up to be hard to beat and try and counter their hosts.

Barring a late Marcos Alonso strike, all four games between Pep Guardiola's Manchester City and Thomas Tuchel's Chelsea would have ended with two or fewer goals shared out. I think that is likely to be the outcome of this one too and the layers may be taking a chances with odds against quotes on there being fewer than three goals in the early kick off.


Newcastle United v Watford Pick: Relegation six pointers don't come much bigger than Newcastle United versus Watford and these two clubs will head into this weekend knowing how important this game is to both.

The bottom four look like they are being cut off from the rest of the Premier League and three of those will be playing in the Championship next season. Neither Newcastle United nor Watford are in the kind of form that makes it easy to trust them, although the expected financial muscle of Newcastle United is showing up with the signings of Kieran Trippier and Chris Wood.

Even then, a strong Newcastle United team were beaten by Cambridge United in the FA Cup Third Round last weekend and they are struggling. Eddie Howe is hoping to bring in defensive reinforcements, but for now Newcastle United are going to have a tough challenge in picking up the points they need to avoid an embarrassing drop into the second tier of English Football.

Newcastle United are home this weekend, which gives them an edge, and they are facing a Watford team that have lost 7 in a row in all competitions. Claudio Ranieri has not had the kind of defensive impact expected and Watford have looked short of confidence, although the squad is getting healthier and have had recent signings bolster their options too.

The next week could tell us all we need to know about Watford- amazingly they are facing all three teams inside the relegation zone over the next seven days and you have to imagine the veteran manager is targeting at least five points from the fixtures against Newcastle United, Burnley and Norwich City.

It is hard to trust Watford considering the amount of goals they have been conceding, but they look to have some important players back for this game. The effort in the narrow loss to Tottenham Hotspur in their last Premier League game is encouraging and Watford do have some talented forward players that can expose the holes in the Newcastle United defence.

Watford also have a decent record at St James' Park in recent visits and I think they may have enough to at least take a point from this fixture. The first goal is going to be absolutely massive considering the lack of confidence that the teams are both playing with, but Watford have the players that could provide that in what is a massive game at the bottom of the table.


Norwich City v Everton Pick: You have to be aware that Norwich City look way short of the quality needed to avoid the drop back into the Championship and there wouldn't be many backing them to surpass the 21 points they earned a couple of seasons ago when finishing bottom of the top flight table.

They were well beaten at West Ham United on Wednesday which means 6 straight Premier League losses and all without scoring a goal and Norwich City will do well to double the 10 points earned so far.

However, I also can't help think Everton are massively over-rated for this trip to Carrow Road and there is nothing they have done to deserve being close to odds on to win here. Dean Smith has to be telling his players this is a big opportunity for them when you think Everton have won 1 of their last 13 games in all competitions in normal time.

Everton have been hit hard by injury and they are going to be without some key players, although the quality of Demarai Gray and Dominic Calvert-Lewin may give them the edge in this fixture. Even then, Everton look remarkably short in the market and they have vulnerabilities at the back that can be exposed by Norwich City, despite the horrific goal-scoring form of the home team.

I won't deny that Everton can create chances, but they have given up some big opportunities for opponents at the back and it may be enough for Norwich City to move into a position to earn a positive result. They were well beaten at Goodison Park, but Everton are not playing with the same confidence as earlier this season and it feels like the layers are just looking to oppose Norwich City regardless of opposition they are facing.

The recent form of Norwich City is not exactly encouraging, but they did push Manchester United at Carrow Road last month. With Covid issues now behind them, Norwich City may be in a better place to challenge Everton and I think Rafael Benitez' team have had enough difficulties away from Goodison Park to think it would be anything but a surprise if they were to drop points.


Wolves v Southampton Pick: Two teams in pretty strong form will meet at Molineux and both Wolves and Southampton will feel they are overachieving the expectations set out for them back in August.

Bruno Lage and Ralph Hasenhuttl have a clear idea of what they like to see from their teams and that should produce a good game of football.

Wolves deserve to be favourites when you think they have home advantage and the defensive strength they have displayed time after time this season. This is a team that will not give up a lot of big chances and Wolves will believe they can largely contain Southampton, despite the fact the visitors will be heading into the fixture having scored four times against Brentford on Tuesday.

The Saints have scored at least twice in 3 away games in a row too, so they are clearly dangerous at their best. However, they will find it tough to break down a well organised Wolves team and that despite having a pretty decent record at Molineux over the last couple of years.

Southampton will play their football and it should be an eye-pleasing game, but it feels like one in which there may not be as many goals as some may expect. While Southampton have been able to score goals away from home, they failed to do so at Manchester City and Liverpool who are some of the better defensive teams in the Premier League.

Wolves may not be as renowned as those two teams, but they are very tough to score against too and I think they can do enough to keep Southampton at arm's length in this match.

However, Wolves have also struggled for goals and the eye-catching football has missed an end product at times. They have not scored in their last 3 Premier League games here and the feeling is that one of these teams will fail to find the back of the net on Saturday.

That would have been a winning approach when the teams met earlier this season and also when they played at Molineux in the FA Cup last season. I think both Wolves and Southampton could have strong second halves of the season, but this is a game in which there could be some issues putting a finishing touch on the football being produced.


Aston Villa v Manchester United Pick: There will have been plenty of players and fans asking each other how Aston Villa managed to lose the FA Cup Third Round tie at Old Trafford on Monday. Redemption will be on the mind of the players when they take the field on Saturday afternoon in the Premier League, although this time Aston Villa will be the team hosting the game.

Playing Manchester United at Villa Park has been a really tough challenge for Aston Villa over the years and the fact they have won none of the last 22 against them here underlines the point. Since returning to the top flight, Aston Villa have lost both home games against Manchester United and conceded three goals in both defeats, but the visitors are not playing with much confidence at the moment.

The results continue to be churned out and Manchester United may feel they will have a much stronger team out on Saturday compared with the Cup tie. This time they should be able to call on Jadon Sancho and Cristiano Ronaldo, but there is no doubt that the confidence looks to be shot right now.

Cristiano Ronaldo's interview suggesting younger players are not keen to learn and improve may not have gone down very well with his team-mates, despite the obvious standards the Portuguese star wants to set at Old Trafford.

It makes it very hard to see Manchester United as the favourite in this fixture and I am not convinced that they will be markedly improved on the performance on Monday. Yes, Cristiano Ronaldo is back, but the loss of Scott McTominay hurts in the middle of the pitch and better finishing from Aston Villa, as well as a little luck, would have seen Steven Gerrard's team earn the upset.

Aston Villa have not exactly been in good form themselves having lost 4 of their last 6 at Villa Park in the Premier League, but Manchester United's lack of goals away from home is a concern. The home team will also be boosted by the signings of Lucas Digne and Philippe Coutinho who will both be involved here, while the results have perhaps been more unfortunate than reflective of the Aston Villa level.

After struggles at Norwich City and Newcastle United, Manchester United look very short to win here and the feeling is that the layers are pricing them up on name rather than level being produced. That cannot be ignored and the value looks to be on the home team, as much as it pains me to say it.


Liverpool v Brentford Pick: If both of these squads were at full strength you would have to make Liverpool a significant favourite on current form and overall quality in this Premier League game at Anfield on Sunday.

However, the absence of Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah was felt by the home team in their goalless draw with Arsenal in the League Cup Semi Final First Leg on Thursday. Even the fact that Arsenal had been reduced to ten men fairly early on did not change the narrative of the fixture as Liverpool struggled to create good chances without their two best forward players.

Making up for the absence of Mane and Salah is going to be a challenge for Liverpool through the remainder of the month and one that may be beyond them if the last game is anything to go by. You can forgive an off day, but Liverpool's impotence in the final third is a massive concern.

Liverpool may be facing the right opponent to change that feeling about them without their two star players and that is because Brentford have been conceding away goals in the Premier League at an alarming rate. Heavy losses at Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton are one thing, but Brentford have also conceded three times in a defeat at Burnley and the same amount at Newcastle United in a 3-3 draw at St James' Park.

It certainly makes it hard to believe Brentford can contain Liverpool, although this is a team that will get forward and cause one or two problems of their own. As porous as they have been defensively, Brentford have scored at least twice in half of their last 8 away Premier League games and they have also produced their best efforts against the top teams.

Just last month Brentford were narrowly beaten by Manchester City at home in the Premier League, while the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool have failed to win in West London. It has been a different story away from home, but Thomas Frank has to believe his team can do enough to be much more competitive than they were in the loss at Southampton on Tuesday.

I also expect much better from Liverpool after the lack of quality in the final third on Thursday, but the lack of time between games is not going to help them too much. The squad is stretched so rotation is not really something that Jurgen Klopp can do right now and it feels Brentford can do enough to at least avoid a big loss here.

The fans will be excited about this week with Liverpool and Manchester United the opponents in the space of a few days and I expect those matches to motivate the players to produce their best too. Earning a positive result at Anfield may be beyond Brentford in the first of those games and especially on current form, but Liverpool are without key striking options and it may mean having to settle for a close win on the day.


West Ham United v Leeds United Pick: The top three in the Premier League look on course to secure Champions League Football, but the race for the final place has the potential to go right down to the wire.

It feels like an open race and West Ham United should not be doubting their own abilities to scratch and claw their way into those positions. Momentum is a big part of Football and The Hammers have plenty of that after back to back wins over the last week at the London Stadium.

That means West Ham United have won 4 in a row in all competitions since the surprising 2-3 defeat to Southampton and they have forced their way back into the top four. A win on Sunday will see West Ham United cement that spot before the North London derby is played between the two teams immediately below them and West Ham United are a team that have been scoring goals for fun.

West Ham United pose an attacking threat that will cause plenty of problems for Leeds United and better finishing last weekend would have made the Cup tie much more comfortable.

Leeds United have struggled away from home this season and in recent weeks the stretched squad have had difficulties. They are struggling at both ends of the field and I think West Ham United will be too good for Leeds United for a second Sunday in a row.

I expect the visitors to cause a few more problems than last weekend with Raphinha and potentially Patrick Bamford back in the line up, but even that may not be enough to contain a West Ham United who are scoring plenty of goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick: There are still some doubts that the North London derby will be played on Sunday with Arsenal facing a long injury list, Covid issues and players leaving for the African Cup of Nations. They put in a huge effort in the goalless draw at Liverpool on Thursday in the League Cup Semi Final Final First Leg, but that came at a cost with Granit Xhaka sent off and the likes of Cedric Soares and Bukayo Saka picking up knocks.

It would be really frustrating for the Tottenham Hotspur fans as they couldn't really ask for a better time to face their rivals.

Antonio Conte will have been disappointed with the effort made in the two defeats to Chelsea in the League Cup Semi Final First and Second Leg, but the manager has sparked positive form at home since arriving at the club. Tottenham Hotspur have won 4 of their 5 home Premier League games under Conte and they have scored at least twice in each of those games.

Spurs also have a very good recent home record against Arsenal with 5 wins in their last 7 North London derby games hosted by Tottenham Hotspur.

It can be difficult to get a good read on Arsenal who have been inconsistent away from home, but they do have back to back away wins in the Premier League. The loss at Nottingham Forest was an eye-opener, but Arsenal showed how resilient they can be in their draw at Anfield.

However, I do think they put in a huge effort in that game and now have twenty-four hours less than Tottenham Hotspur to prepare for this one. The players could be absolutely shattered during this fixture and I think Tottenham Hotspur would be able to take advantage if the game is played as scheduled.

With the goals Tottenham Hotspur have been scoring at home in the Premier League, I think they can be backed to earn revenge for the loss at the Emirates Stadium earlier this season.


Brighton v Chelsea PickIt feels like the Premier League title race is run for Chelsea, but it would also take a real poor run of form for them to miss out on a top four place.

This could all mean that the focus for the manager and the playing staff is on the three Cup competitions they are going to be playing in over the next four months. Chelsea have already reached the League Cup Final and have FA Cup and Champions League commitments too, but Thomas Tuchel will know the Premier League is still important to build momentum.

He was not happy with the 1-0 defeat at Manchester City and was critical of forward players that day, but Chelsea largely contained their hosts too which is encouraging. Key players will soon bolster the squad and Chelsea can also add the World Club Cup to the trophy cabinet next month.

Heading to the Middle East means Chelsea have had this fixture brought forward to ensure there is not a major backlog of games to clear later this season. It provides the team an immediate chance to bounce back from the defeat at Manchester City, although no one associated with Chelsea will believe this is an easy fixture.

Brighton have been enjoying a very good season and showed their worth by coming from behind to earn a point at Stamford Bridge last month. They were not lucky to do so either and Graham Potter's men will feel they have nothing to lose whenever they come up against the top teams in the Premier League.

Defensive injuries are a concern for the home team, but Chelsea have only won 1 of their last 4 away Premier League games and they feel short in this one. Brighton have been very tough to beat at home and they are very rarely brushed aside, while they have also had a few more hours to prepare for this fixture having played on Friday night against rivals Crystal Palace.

Being able to back Brighton with a start looks hard to ignore and especially after Chelsea took the knock they did on Saturday. Some of the players may just have lost some focus after effectively seeing the Premier League title drift away and this is a tough place to try and steal a result.

The first goal is going to be important, but Brighton should be competitive and have shown Liverpool and Chelsea that they don't lose faith even when they fall behind. Chelsea do have a very good recent record here, but a couple of seasons ago Brighton held them to a draw and I think there is every chance they can do the same on Tuesday evening.


Brentford v Manchester United PickWhen a club with the resources of Brentford are able to make the right decisions to move up into the top flight of any of the top European Leagues, the matches against the biggest names are the ones that leap off the page.

Brentford fans have already seen their team host Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City in the Premier League this season, but there is a different feeling knowing Manchester United are coming to town. The Stadium is already one with an intense atmosphere and I think the Wednesday night setting for the game will only make that atmosphere even better.

The home team have lost heavily at Southampton and Liverpool, but they are going to be inspired and motivated by the crowd behind them. It has clearly made a difference for Brentford who have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at the Brentford Community Stadium, while they have beaten Arsenal here.

Liverpool escaped with a 3-3 draw, while both Chelsea and Manchester City may feel they were fortunate in their 0-1 League wins here.

All of that points to a huge test for a Manchester United team that have been lacking confidence in recent games and who have just blown a 0-2 lead in an eventual 2-2 draw at Villa Park. Manchester United were also looking vulnerable at Norwich City and Newcastle United and I do think the players are going to be tested by a Brentford team that will look to get on the front foot and put them under pressure.

The absence of David Raya is a big blow for Brentford as the understudy has not performed as well as they would have liked. Alvaro Fernandez made some big saves at Anfield, but the defence does not look as confident with him behind them as when David Raya played and I do think Manchester United can cause problems.

However, I think they will also struggle to contain Brentford and this is another fixture that may feature at least three goals on the night.

Brentford have been strong at home and you can make a case for them being the side to back on the Asian Handicap when you think of their performances at home. However, I do think The Bees have had some issues defensively which could be exposed by Manchester United and a narrow victory for the visitors in a high scoring contest could be the outcome of this game.


Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur PickThis was a fixture that was supposed to be played a few weeks ago and both Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur are still having some issues with injuries.

It is Leicester City who are suffering more out of the two teams, but both had fixtures postponed this weekend and should be fresh and ready to compete. A few players have returned, but it has been a difficult season for Brendan Rodgers as he manages the squad, although there is every chance this could finish up being a successful campaign.

Cup competitions offer Leicester City a chance to win more silverware, but the side are still very much in the race for the top four places. If they win their games in hand, Leicester City would be level on points with West Ham United, but Tottenham Hotspur may be the team with the edge as far as the final Champions League place is concerned.

Home form has been important for Tottenham Hotspur, but Antonio Conte needs more from his squad if they are going to improve their inconsistent away form. They scored a late winner at Watford on New Year's Day, but Tottenham Hotspur have been a touch wasteful in recent away games in the Premier League and being without Heung-Min Son is a blow to their chances.

A strong recent record at the King Power Stadium will offer some encouragement, while Leicester City have been vulnerable defensively.

At the moment the tactics seem to be to try and out-score teams and Leicester City have been successful doing that at home which could make this a really good game. They will concede goals, but Leicester City should be able to hurt Tottenham Hotspur and 4 of the last 5 between these clubs here have ended with at least three goals shared out.

Tottenham Hotspur have struggled to put a finishing touch to their football away from home, but they should be able to create chances here and both teams are likely to hit the net in a high-scoring game.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Manchester City-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals
Watford + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Norwich City + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Wolves-Southampton Both Teams to Score- NO
Aston Villa + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Brentford + 1.5 Asian Handicap
West Ham United & Over 1.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Brighton + 0.75 Asian Handicap
Leicester City-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals
Brentford-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 22
I've not had much luck, but decisions have not been good enough with my Fantasy Football team and now I look at my squad and have very few reasons to be happy with it.

There are plenty of people having successful seasons so clearly my decision making has not been good enough, but this is way below par and being outside the top million is embarrassing to be perfectly honest with you.

Postponements have clearly not helped- I've been on the wrong end of a number of them- but I've also had to look in the mirror in some of the selections made. Players have also let me down by suddenly losing the confidence of their manager and I have to find a way to get the better of this team, even if it means moving away from traditional approaches to the second half of the season.

In saying that the added Free Transfer Chip given by the game is a bit of a joke and it covers those people who have not been hit hard by postponements which means those games are hitting those of us with the players missing out double than those who have avoided postponements. That doesn't seem very fair and the FPL should be questioning their decision making, especially after the site went down ten minutes before the deadline on Boxing Day.

I think my decisions are going to be a little more risky over the coming weeks and months to try and get things turned around, but I have a number of players that need to be removed.

Andreas Christensen, Diogo Dalot, Christian Benteke and Josh King are high on my removal list- the likes of Christensen and Benteke have really bothered me to my core- but it is just one of those years and I am going to need some luck to avoid my worst ever finish!

As you can imagine, it is pointless me thinking about weeks ahead with postponements continuing to hit hard and all transfers will be made as late as possible with the hope that the site doesn't decide to crash again!

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