If you had told me that Rafael Nadal and Matteo Berrettini had both moved into 2-0 leads in their Quarter Final matches on Day 9 at the Australian Open, I would have been expecting at least one winning Pick.
Quite unbelievably, both players saw their opponents scramble back to 2-2, but then managed to battle against the momentum that built against them in a 3-2 win.
It is annoying to say the least, especially as it would have resulted in the tournament totals moving back in a very positive direction. Thankfully both Madison Keys and Ashleigh Barty came through to avoid a loss on the day, but it does feel like a missed opportunity.
Hopefully the remaining Quarter Final matches are much more positive in terms of the returns, although as a fan it is good to see the Australian Open have some drama in the matches that are being played.
Danielle Collins - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: The top half of the draw has a favourite who has steamrolled her way past every opponent that she has faced, but the bottom half of the Women's event at the Australian Open has arguably four surprise names involved.
The most surprising Quarter Final clash may be the one involving Danielle Collins and Alize Cornet and both players have to be aware of the size of the opportunity in front of them. In a long career, the veteran Alize Cornet has already broken new ground by reaching the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam for the first time, while Danielle Collins is a former Australian Open Semi Finalist and has also reached the Quarter Final at the French Open previously.
You do have to think that plays some part in the match, but Danielle Collins is not going to be the most intimidating opponent that Alize Cornet has played in the tournament having beaten two previous Slam Champions in her four matches here. The win over Garbine Muguruza was very comfortable, but Alize Cornet had to dig deep to beat Simona Halep in the Fourth Round and that after a very intense Third Round win.
Fatigue has to be accumulating for Alize Cornet and she is being asked to play at a difficult time, but the battle and fight the Frenchwoman has shown has to be commended. Her numbers in the Australian Open are considerably better than her usual hard court level and I think the chance of reaching a Slam Semi Final has to keep her highly motivated with those opportunities likely to be limited for the 32 year old Cornet.
However, she did look really tired at times in the last Round and, although known as someone who can be a little 'dramatic' on the court, I do think there has to be some accumulation building up. That is both from an emotional and physical point of view and I think Danielle Collins is playing the steadier tennis all around, even though she has had to come from a set down in back to back wins.
Those have been in matches that the American has looked really good and she has created a lot more break points than she has been giving up. Danielle Collins has been serving really well throughout the tournament and that can make the difference for her in this match, although she will have to contain emotions that can sometimes rear up.
This is a very big mark and Alize Cornet is not someone who will go away easily, but I think if Danielle Collins can get in front there will be some pressure on the underdog that can wear her down a bit quicker. Alize Cornet has yet to be behind in the tournament and it will be a tough situation to deal with in her current condition.
Danielle Collins looks to have the edge in the serving department and I think that will see her do enough to not only move through to the Semi Final, but to do so in some style.
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: Earlier in her career, Kaia Kanepi reached a number of Grand Slam Quarter Finals, but injuries racked up and she missed two years on the Tour. The Estonian returned with a Quarter Final run at the US Open in 2017, but she has made just two Fourth Rounds since then.
Everything has changed at the Australian Open as Kaia Kanepi has made her maiden Australian Open Quarter Final after a gruelling win over Aryna Sabalenka in the Fourth Round. Kaia Kanepi even begun to celebrate too early in the Super Tie Break win over the Number 2 Seed, but she has shown the battling qualities which have allowed her to come back from a set down in each of her last two matches.
The run has perhaps been more surprising at this stage of the Kanepi career when you look at the hard court numbers over the last two seasons and I think that is going to make this a really tough Quarter Final for her to deal with. However, Kaia Kanepi is going to feel like she is a dangerous player in this match as long as she continues to serve as she has done at Melbourne Park in her run to this Quarter Final.
Once again Kaia Kanepi is going to be an underdog when she faces Iga Swiatek who is one of just two former Grand Slam Champions that are still looking to add to the titles they have won. While we have seen a decline in some of the hard court numbers that Kanepi has produced, Iga Swiatek is a progressing player on the hard courts and that is underlined by the fact she has made her first Grand Slam Quarter Final on this surface.
Iga Swiatek has been pushed in the last two Rounds and she was quite emotional after coming from a set down to beat Sorana Cirstea in the Fourth Round, but the former French Open Champion should be able to handle the occasion. Only Ashleigh Barty has proven to be too good for Iga Swiatek in the Australian summer in January and she has also been a player that has found plenty out of the serve to stay on top of opponents.
First serves are going to be absolutely massive for both of these players, but it is Iga Swiatek who has been the slightly better return player. It is where the difference can be made between them on the day and I think the hard court numbers over the last couple of years suggests the Pole can find a level that Kaia Kanepi may struggle to match.
The Women's tournament has been fun at the Australian Open because matches have been competitive, but I do think this Quarter Final can move towards the favourite who can then eventually begin to roll past her opponent. Kaia Kanepi will be confident and feel like she has nothing to lose, but Iga Swiatek is in fine form and I think she will do enough to win and eventually enough to cover.
Jannik Sinner - 1.5 sets v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Three years ago, a surprising run to the Australian Open Semi Final announced Stefanos Tsitsipas to the wider tennis audience and he reached the same Round last year before losing to Daniil Medvedev. The first half of the season has tended to be a more productive time for the Greek player who has played in three Semi Finals and one Final at the Australian Open and French Open combined.
Those two Slams have been his stronger ones and Stefanos Tsitsipas has not been beyond the Fourth Round at either Wimbledon or the US Open and his run to the Quarter Final here makes him dangerous. However, Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled through this tournament and he has yet to really reached the kind of level that would be expected of him.
He has been an improving player on the hard courts thanks to a better ability to get into return games, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has had some doubts about his fitness prior to the tournament beginning. It certainly may be playing a part in the long matches that Stefanos Tsitsipas has had to deal with at Melbourne Park already, and the big question has to be how much is left in the tank for one of the contenders.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is also going to have to deal with an up and coming threat on the ATP Tour and Jannik Sinner has already moved into the top ten of the World Rankings. In just his third ever Grand Slam event, the Italian reached the Quarter Final at the French Open, but a much improved player will be taking the court this time.
One poor set aside, Jannik Sinner has been in control of his tennis and he has been serving really well at Melbourne Park, while that has only opened things up for his aggressive return to takeover matches. It was a bit more of a challenge against home opponent Alex De Minaur in the Fourth Round, but Jannik Sinner played the big points well and his hard court numbers this month have been very impressive.
I also have to give Jannik Sinner the edge when it comes to the fitness in this Quarter Final and I think that will help him against an opponent who has the winning record in their three previous matches. All of those came on the clay courts, which is a surface on which Stefanos Tsitsipas plays his best tennis, but I do think the Italian is going to prove to be a real threat on the hard courts if he is not already.
If Stefanos Tsitsipas had not been struggling with some physical issues and not been pushed as hard as he has in this tournament, I think this would be a really close match. However, it feels like a huge opportunity for Jannik Sinner to make his way into a maiden Grand Slam and I think he can produce a very good win as long as the Italian can stay on top of his emotions.
Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Frustrations were high on the Daniil Medvedev side of the court in his four set Fourth Round win over Maxime Cressy and plenty of that was down to the opponent. The American is an 'old school' player who looks to play serve-volley all day long and it was clear that Daniil Medvedev was having issues trying to work out the best way to deal with a player that is not being replicated by too many others around the Tour.
While he was irritated by the tennis he was facing, Daniil Medvedev may also have been externalising the frustration of not being scheduled to be played on Rod Laver Arena. As the top Seed in the Men's draw and the last Grand Slam Champion, you can understand that Daniil Medvedev will feel he is one of the big draws at all events and particularly on a day when none of the 'Big Three' are involved.
He will get his wish the rest of the way at the Australian Open and Daniil Medvedev has been placed in the evening session, which is the primetime spot for many players at Melbourne Park. That should at least make the World Number 2 happier as he takes a step closer to winning a second Grand Slam title and also move into position as the World Number 1.
A huge serve is backed up by a very efficient return and that makes Daniil Medvedev very dangerous on the hard courts as he looks to reach a third straight Final on this surface in the Grand Slams. Daniil Medvedev has broken at least three times in every match he has played so far at the Australian Open and he has created at least eleven break points in each of the last three matches here, numbers that are going to give the Russian plenty of confidence.
He will also earn confidence when playing Felix Auger-Aliassime and it has been a good match up for Daniil Medvedev. This is the third time they have met on a hard court since September and Daniil Medvedev has won the last two in dominant fashion, which underlines why he is such a big favourite here.
Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov are leading Canadian tennis into a new era and the two combined to help their nation win the ATP Cup before the Australian Open began. He has reached the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time in his career thanks to the performances at the ATP Cup, but Felix Auger-Aliassime knows the challenge in front of him.
After reaching the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and then the Semi Final at the US Open, Felix Auger-Aliassime is hoping that he continues to progressing to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final. However, the young Canadian was beaten pretty comfortably in those two previous Grand Slam matches when reaching the latter stages and there is still a real question mark about the return and whether that is good enough to beat the best.
Even in the run here at the Australian Open, Felix Auger-Aliassime has only managed to break in 18% of return games and it is a mark that is not going to get things done against the top players he will have to beat to reach the Final.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has a 3-15 record against top ten Ranked opponents on the hard courts and his marks of 72% of games being held and 14% of return games leading to a break of serve is not up the level he needs. In the two matches against Daniil Medvedev over the last five months, Felix Auger-Aliassime has only held serve in 60% of service games played compared with his opponent's mark of 95% and that is a gap that looks very difficult to bridge.
Daniil Medvedev has broken Felix Auger-Aliassime nine times in five sets played against him and his current form suggests the Russian is going to be able to pull away and cover a big number in this Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Danielle Collins - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 36-28, + 5.78 Units (128 Units Staked, + 4.52% Yield)
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