The NFL PlayOffs begin on Saturday in mid-January and there looks to be some very strong games to be played over the Super Wild Card Round of the post-season.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The final seconds of the last game of the 2021 regular season looked like it could wind down to the tie that would have eliminated the Pittsburgh Steelers and taken the Los Angeles Chargers to the PlayOffs alongside Divisional rivals the Las Vegas Raiders (10-7). However, one more big run in Overtime was good enough for the Raiders to set up a Field Goal to eliminate the Chargers and it was a victory that meant avoiding facing the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.
Instead the Raiders will have to travel to take on the AFC North Champions the Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) who should have their key players well rested. The Divisional crown was wrapped up in Week 17 and the Bengals were not in a position to move into the top two Seeds in the Conference and so a decision was made to make sure Cincinnati are ready for this PlayOff Game.
Both the Bengals and Raiders have had little PlayOff success in recent years and for both Derek Carr and Joe Burrow this will be the first taste of the post-season in the NFL. Cincinnati won't be too concerned with Joe Burrow, who won the National Championship with the LSU Tigers, but you can't ignore how tough first time starters have found life in the post-season in the professional rank and it is something that both starting Quarter Backs will have to deal with on Saturday in the opening PlayOff Game of the 2021 season.
This is the second time the Raiders and Bengals are meeting after Cincinnati won big on the road, but this time they will be getting to host the game. The weather could be a real factor for a team coming out of Nevada and not being accustomed to the kind of cold that will be around in Ohio in January too and both of those factors will have people leaning towards the Cincinnati Bengals.
However, I do think the Raiders can match up well with this Cincinnati Bengals team on both sides of the ball and that could see them make this a much more competitive affair than the home game which was won by the Bengals by double digits. Key players are back for Las Vegas and they have momentum having won the last game of the regular season to secure their place in the post-season.
Like last weekend, the key for the Las Vegas Raiders is making sure they do not move too far away from the Offensive game plan- they have to make sure Josh Jacobs gets his touches at Running Back and the Offense does not become too one-dimensional too early and hope Derek Carr is having one of his better days in the office.
I am not convinced about Derek Carr despite the fact he can be very good at his best- ultimately he is not consistent enough to believe in. However, the Raiders can set him up in a strong position by running the ball with Jacobs who will be facing a Bengals Defensive Line which has just struggled to contain the run down the stretch.
Putting Derek Carr in third and manageable spots makes things so much easier for a team that does not have the deep threat they would have done earlier in the season, but the likes of Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are capable of making plays to keep the chains moving. The Quarter Back is also playing behind a strong Offensive Line which will offer him some time to make his throws down the field and I do think the Las Vegas Raiders can have success in this one as they look to advance.
It also should be pointed out that the Las Vegas Raiders have earned their spot in the post-season thanks to the performance of the Defensive unit, even more so than Derek Carr and the Offensive unit. The Raiders have really played well down the stretch, although they will be the first to admit that Joe Burrow and the Bengals will provide a very stiff challenge.
Like the other side of the ball, Las Vegas do feel like they match up well with the Bengals here too and that is taking nothing away from Joe Burrow and how well he has played this season. Cincinnati have some very talented skill players, but they were thankful to a really big performance from Joe Mixon when winning on the road earlier this season and that may be tough to replicate when you think of the much improved performances of the Las Vegas Defensive Line.
This comes at the same time when the Bengals Offensive Line has just struggled to open consistent holes for their Running Back and have also had some issues in pass protection. The Raiders have a pass rush that can get after the Quarter Back without the need to send extra rushers and that is very important for the road team as they look to make plays against Joe Burrow and cover his skill players at Receiver.
The Bengals played well enough down the stretch to think they will have some success, but I think the Raiders match up pretty good and that should mean they can make some plays to keep this one close. Both teams will feel they have something to prove having struggled to make the PlayOffs in recent times, but the pressure of being a favourite for a first time Quarter Back playing in the NFL post-season may just weigh on Joe Burrow a bit more than the underdog Derek Carr.
I can't help but respect the level reached by the Bengals this season, but the Raiders are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog and I think they can keep this close with the points they have been given.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: Two AFC East teams have made it through to the NFL PlayOffs and the Divisional rivals will be facing one another one more time in 2021, this time with a lot more on the line. The Buffalo Bills (11-6) and the New England Patriots (10-7) both beat the other on the road, but it is the Bills who went on to win the Division and that means they will get the chance to host this game.
A defeat at the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 knocked the Patriots down into the Number 6 Seed in the AFC and that means missing out on a potential game in Cincinnati rather than having to face the Bills again. Bill Belichick and Sean McDermott will not have too many secrets from the other and the weather is going to be extremely cold in Buffalo, much like it was when these teams met here in the regular season.
There is a key difference which should aid Buffalo a lot more than it did when they were beaten by the New England Patriots back in Week 13- on that day, the wind meant neither team had much success throwing the ball and the Patriots won with three passes thrown by Mac Jones, but in this Wild Card Game it is going to be cold, but not windy.
That is a huge boost for the Buffalo Bills who will be looking for Josh Allen to lead them to another win over the New England Patriots having thrown for over 300 yards in a row win at the Patriots. While Bill Belichick is the kind of Coach that has become known for taking away key pieces of an Offense his team are facing, Josh Allen has been tough for the Patriots to corral and I think he will be a key for the Buffalo Bills as they look to have another deep run in the post-season.
Josh Allen won't have it easy and had to throw the ball plenty of times to pick up his yards in the win over the Patriots in Foxboro, but I think he can offer the Bills plenty of balance. They do tend to run the ball with their Quarter Back rather than Devin Singletary or Zack Moss, but the Bills should be able to pick up some strong yards on the ground in this one and especially if Allen loosens the New England Defensive Line a little more by getting to a hot start throwing the ball.
There are enough passing options to keep the chains moving for Buffalo even if Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox are limited and I do think Josh Allen has a strong PlayOff outing. It will mean the pressure is on the New England Coaching staff to prevent Buffalo from piling up the points as it feels like the Patriots can only win a low-scoring game.
It is my opinion anyway and the Patriots cannot afford to let this game get out of hand early as they look to keep Mac Jones from having to do too much in his first Quarter Back start in the NFL PlayOffs. The young player has had a good year, but there is still much to learn and it is clear that the Patriots are going to rely on their strong Offensive Line and ability to sub in Running Backs to run the ball efficiently in order to win games.
Mac Jones will know he is going to need to throw the ball a lot more than he did in the first visit to Buffalo, but New England are going to know they will need to run the ball plenty of times if they are going to win this game. It has been one of the weaknesses of the Buffalo Defensive unit when it comes to stopping the run and I think that is really important to note and could be a major factor in this game as long as it is close.
Things change dramatically if the Patriots have to lean on Mac Jones and the passing Offense to get the job done and it does not favour New England in that situation. The Buffalo Secondary is very good and they will feel they have a clear edge if they can put the Patriots in a position where they have to throw the ball to stay in the game.
That would also see the Buffalo pass rush come into play and I do think the AFC East Champions will have the edge in this Wild Card Game and can move past New England with a cover on the night.
New England do have a very good record in Buffalo when it comes to the spread, but those were largely in the Tom Brady era- you still cannot ignore the fact that the Patriots have covered in their two games here since Brady moved on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers too. However, Buffalo have blown out the Patriots twice in Foxboro in that time and I do think Mac Jones could have some issues in his first ever PlayOff start.
The Patriots are also playing off a loss and have performed well in that spot, but Buffalo match up well with them and I think the 11-5-2 record against the spread in their last eighteen as the home favourite is important. Buffalo have to avoid mistakes early and, if they can do that, I think they can win and cover this spread.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The experience edge at Quarter Back is very much with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4) as the last Super Bowl Champions begin their post-season adventure at the end of the 2021 season. They could become the first team in almost twenty years to win back to back Super Bowl titles and in Tom Brady they have the last Quarter Back to achieve that during his long spell with the New England Patriots.
Not many will rule out the Buccaneers from winning it all again, although the injuries to key skill players and the fallout from the Antonio Brown situation does hurt the team. Tampa Bay have momentum with their strong end to the regular season and Tom Brady is capable of making a star out of other Receivers on the Offensive unit, but the injury to Leonard Fournette is another challenge for the Buccaneers to overcome.
Tom Brady will feel he can still exploit the Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) who were blown out in Week 18 as they rested starters in preparation for the return to the post-season. The Defensive Line continues to be the strength of the Eagles on this side of the ball and they will at least believe they can force Tom Brady to have to move the chains with his arm, even if that is something that is entirely possible.
The Eagles have a Secondary which has struggled at times and I do think the Buccaneers are going to be difficult to slow down at home. Tampa Bay only played at home in the Super Bowl in the 2020 PlayOffs, but they should be good enough to earn at least two during this year and every chance that the Buccaneers will be hosting three NFC PlayOff Games before the Super Bowl in Los Angeles.
Tom Brady is hugely experienced and the Buccaneers will not panic when he has the ball, but the Philadelphia Eagles are not going to be as sure about their Quarter Back. Jalen Hurts has not played a post-season game for the Eagles before and those first time Quarter Backs can have a very difficult, eye-opening experience in those games.
Philadelphia will have a very clear game-plan though and that is to run the ball as often as they can- Jalen Hurts is a mobile Quarter Back himself, but the Eagles have a committee at Running Back led by Miles Sanders who have sparked the team into the PlayOffs. Earlier this season they did not have the same commitment to the run, but the Eagles have been very strong over the last few weeks and the Offensive Line enjoys grading the road.
In recent years the Buccaneers Defensive Line has been a strength of the team, but there have been one or two more holes up front and I expect the Eagles to have some success exploiting those. As long as the game is close, the Eagles should feel they can lean on the run to keep Brady and the Buccaneers Offense cooling off on the sidelines.
Jalen Hurts is going to have to make some big throws too at times to keep the Buccaneers honest, but he is playing for an Eagles team that have been money when set as the underdog in the PlayOffs.
I hate opposing Tom Brady and his Tampa Bay team are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite, but having more than a Touchdown start with the road underdog looks big. As good as the Buccaneers were in winning the Super Bowl last season, they had some close challenges in the run to the big game and I think there is every chance this could be a competitive one too.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: There is so much history attached to games between the San Francisco 49ers (10-7) and Dallas Cowboys (12-5) and they will meet in the post-season once again. The Dallas Cowboys largely controlled the NFC East and were comfortable Divisional Winners, but the 49ers had to fight and claw their way into the post-season and it took an Overtime win in Week 18 against rivals the Los Angeles Rams to earn a place in the PlayOffs.
Now they are here, the 49ers look like being one of the more dangerous Wild Card teams in either Conference and I do think they will believe they can match up pretty well with the Dallas Cowboys. Take away the win over the second string Philadelphia Eagles in Week 18 and you have to note that the Dallas Cowboys have had some inconsistent form from the Offensive unit, which will encourage the 49ers.
A Cowboys defeat to the Arizona Cardinals may give the San Francisco 49ers the kind of blueprint they need to beat the hosts and I do think the 49ers are playing with a confidence that could be tough to shake away. Jimmy Garoppolo has seemingly played under pressure all season at Quarter Back, but he is avoiding the back-breaking mistakes that can litter his game and he will not be asked to win the game.
Instead the 49ers will make sure they establish the run and look for that to set up play-action and screens that can keep the Quarter Back out of trouble. The run is very important to the San Francisco game-plan if only to slow down the pass rush threat that the Cowboys have up front, while it may make an aggressive Secondary just have to think twice before they try and make plays to turn the ball around.
I do think San Francisco will have success moving the ball, but I think it is the much improved performances of the Defensive unit which may end up being the key to the outcome of this Wild Card Game. I like the Dallas Cowboys Offense and there is no doubt the kind of talent they possess, but the Offensive Line has not been as good at opening up the run as they have been in recent seasons and Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard could be contained by a much improved San Francisco Defensive Line.
Dak Prescott has plenty of Receivers who can get open, but it is a different test throwing down the field from third and long rather than third and manageable, especially as the 49ers have had the pass rush ramp up. The Dallas Offensive Line has been pretty good when it comes to pass protection, so I do think Prescott will have time, but the 49ers have used the pressure up front to get better play out of the Secondary and will feel they can keep this one close.
It feels like a game that could be the closest one of the Wild Card Round and I do think the underdog could bare their teeth.
Dallas have had a very good season, but they are just 6-5 against non-Divisional opponents and San Francisco look to be playing with momentum heading into the PlayOffs. I would suggest paying the price to get the hook on the 3 point spread in a game that could come down to a Field Goal either way, but the underdog still looks the better play.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: It truly felt that Ben Roethlisberger was playing the final snaps of his career a couple of weeks ago in an emotional win for the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) against the Cleveland Browns. Things were going to have to work out in strange ways for the Steelers to make the PlayOffs going into Week 18, but they beat their rivals the Baltimore Ravens in Overtime and the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Indianapolis Colts to give them hope.
However, the Steelers couldn't have been feeling that good when the Raiders and Chargers Sunday Night Football game went into Overtime knowing a tie would mean both of those teams made the PlayOffs at the expense of Pittsburgh. A walk off Field Goal win for the Raiders with time expiring was enough for Pittsburgh and they may feel they have nothing to lose now they have made the post-season.
So now Big Ben has one more shot at trying to add to the Super Bowls he has won in his time with the Steelers, although they are a huge underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) who won the AFC West, but failed to win the AFC Number 1 Seed. The Chiefs will be hosting at least two home PlayOff Games though and I do think they are going to be very confident in their chances of progressing through the post-season.
Patrick Mahomes and the Offensive unit looks to be getting healthier some aspects and they are also a team that has built some chemistry, but this is a huge spread for the Chiefs to cover. They did crush the Pittsburgh Steelers at home last month and that will not be far from the minds of the players or the fans, but I also think the Steelers will feel they can offer much more resistance in this one.
TJ Watt did not have the kind of impact he would have wanted in that game, but I think the Steelers Defensive Line will feel they can at least harass Patrick Mahomes and force him to make some mistakes. Those are not very frequent though and I still think the Chiefs will be able to move the ball and score plenty of points, although they are perhaps not the team to really expose the Steelers like others could.
It has been very possible to crack the Steel Curtain this season and hammer the run home, but the Chiefs are a team that prefer throwing, which is not a massive surprise considering they have Patrick Mahomes behind Center.
Running the ball is going to be the key for the Pittsburgh Steelers to see if they can extend drives and keep the Chiefs powerful Offensive unit on the sidelines. Najee Harris is expected to suit up and in recent games it has been possible for teams to run the ball against this Chiefs Defensive Line, while the Pittsburgh Offensive Line ended the season with strong showings on the ground.
Najee Harris has to keep the team in front of the chains with the clearly declined Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back. It has meant the passes have been coming out pretty short, but those can be successful if the team is in front of the chains, while the Receiving department will be boosted by JuJu Smith-Schuster who can play out of the slot and make plenty of yards after the catch.
Those quick throws have also kept Roethlisberger upright and I think the Steelers should be more competitive than when they were blown out in this Stadium in December. It would be a huge surprise if the Steelers upset Kansas City, but this is a huge spread and a backdoor cover for the road team cannot be ruled out.
Opposing Patrick Mahomes is very tough considering how quickly he can help the Kansas City Chiefs score points, but I expect the veteran Pittsburgh Steelers to give them all they can handle in this one.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The Super Wild Card Round of the NFL also gave the League a big new television contract as we will have a Monday Night Football game in the post-season for the first time. The selection was for two Divisional rivals to meet in that inaugural game and neither the Arizona Cardinals (11-5) nor the Los Angeles Rams (12-6) will feel they have a lot of momentum going into the post-season and that can be critical to the chances of going very deep.
Both were beaten in Week 18 and those defeats came in live games- the Rams loss ended a winning run of five games, but the Cardinals are under more pressure with four losses in their last five games and you can understand why the Los Angeles Rams are considered favourites. In the regular season, both had wins on the road against the other though and I think the familiarity with the Rams will suit the Arizona Cardinals who were the last team to lose a game in the NFL this season.
Injuries have not really helped the Cardinals and the loss of DeAndre Hopkins was a bitter blow to the Offensive unit that had started the season looking as good as any out there. Kyler Murray has played well at Quarter Back, but losing someone who can make all the catches like Hopkins has hurt his level as much as anyone on this team.
Chase Edmonds should be ready to go for the Cardinals to give them a boost at Running Back, but it feels like it will come too soon for James Connor. That is a major blow for Arizona who are going to try and run the ball against a tough Rams Defensive Line, but Edmonds will at least offer something for Arizona.
This is a team that is based around being able to run the ball well and making sure that the Offense is throwing out of third and short spots rather than having to pick up big yardage. Getting ahead of the chains will give Kyler Murray a real chance of exploiting the Secondary, but it will perhaps be more important to slow down the Los Angeles pass rush which is going to be devastating if the Cardinals are playing from obvious passing situations.
While there have been some struggles Offensively, the Cardinals have at least looked at their Defensive unit and will believe those players give them a chance to keep this one competitive. There is no doubt that Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams are not playing as well as they once were, even though they had won five in a row before the loss in Week 18, and I do think the Cardinals match up pretty well with them on this side of the ball.
Teams have been able to run the ball against Arizona, but the Rams are more likely to want to use the quick passing game to keep the chains moving. Los Angeles have not had the best Offensive Line when it comes to looking to run the ball, although Cam Akers is back and could offer them a spark. Unfortunately it may not be ideal with the Cardinals looking to activate JJ Watt back onto the Defensive Line on Monday and the pressure will be on Matthew Stafford to come out and have a big game at Quarter Back.
Matthew Stafford has been an upgrade on Jared Goff, but he will be under no illusions that his legacy will be cemented on whether he can take the Rams one step further than Goff did and win the Super Bowl. Cooper Kuup and Odell Beckham Jr give Stafford some very strong Receiving weapons, but I think the Quarter Back is not yet over some of the issues he has been having with his back and that has contributed to the numbers slumping somewhat.
Those Receivers mentioned will find some gaps to exploit, but it could be another close game between these Divisional rivals who know exactly what to expect from the other. The Arizona Cardinals did out-gain the Los Angeles Rams in both games played this season and I think Kyler Murray and company may have a touch more balance Offensively which makes the points on offer look appealing.
The road team is also 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven between the NFC West rivals.
Arizona are 18-6-3 against the spread in their last twenty-seven as the road underdog and I do think they will feel they have been underestimated going into the post-season. While Sean McVay has been a very good Head Coach at helping his team bounce back from losses, the Rams have been a touch over-rated and that has seen them go 3-7 against the spread in their last ten as the favourite and I think the Arizona Cardinals may be able to do enough to keep this one competitive throughout.
MY PICKS: Las Vegas Raiders + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 12.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Week 18: 6-6, - 1.16 Units (24 Units Staked, - 4.83% Yield)
Week 17: 3-4, - 2.46 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.57% Yield)
Week 16: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)
Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)
Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)
Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)
Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)
Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)
Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)
Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Season 2021: 76-72-1, - 5.48 Units (298 Units Staked, - 1.84% Yield)
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