The last couple of days at the Australian Open have begun to produce the upsets and Day 8 was a day when another couple of big names departed, while others barely scraped over the line.
The Women's draw continues to be wide open and that was underlined by the likes of Alize Cornet and Sorana Cirstea being able to turn back the clock- Cornet managed to beat Simona Halep, but Cirstea came up short.
However, the performances underlined the fact that anyone can beat anyone and it is the main reason we have had so many new Grand Slam Champions and surprise winners.
The top of the game needs a big time rivalry though and I am hoping Ashleigh Barty is going to be at least one of the players that looks to become the dominant force on the Tour. She will need a rival to go with her and bring in new eyes on the sport, especially at a time when the likes of Serena Williams look on the brink of retiring.
The Quarter Final line up has been set and the top half of the Men's and Women's draws will get to play on Rod Laver Arena through Day 9 at the tournament.
After a poor Day 8 for the Tennis Picks, I am hoping the following selections can help me bounce back and move the totals back in a positive direction.
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 sets v Denis Shapovalov: Being a higher Seeded player has meant Rafael Nadal has had an 'easier' path through to this Quarter Final and it is underlined by the fact he has yet to face someone Ranked higher than Number 30. That all changes for Rafael Nadal on Tuesday as he gets set to try and return to another Semi Final at the Australian Open when he takes on a fellow lefty, Denis Shapovalov.
The young Canadian looked really impressive in the Fourth Round when dismissing Alexander Zverev in straight sets and all of his wins at the Australian Open have come against players Ranked inside the top 60. You have to keep that in mind when looking at the numbers that both Denis Shapovalov and Rafael Nadal have produced in this tournament, although there is some pressure on Shapovalov.
As well as he has played, his return is still a big weakness and you can just imagine that the 20 time Grand Slam Champion looking to make history by putting 21 on the board will know all about that. I expect Rafael Nadal to look to contain the threat of Denis Shapovalov with his own serve working very well in the Australian Open so far, although the Spaniard has been beaten by this opponent on a hard court before.
It is a result that will focus Rafael Nadal and came in the first ever match against Denis Shapovalov- the latter was a little fortunate that day and he has lost the next three matches against Nadal, including in their last meeting on the hard courts.
The match between these two was highly competitive on a clay court last year and I do think Denis Shapovalov will be able to play some tennis which will be tough for Rafael Nadal to deal with. However, it should be pointed out that Rafael Nadal has been the more productive return player in their head to head and the Spaniard has been very strong on this side of his game at the Australian Open as Nadal looks to extend his unbeaten start to the season.
If Denis Shapovalov serves as he can, I do think he will win a set, but Rafael Nadal looks like he matches up pretty well with the youngster. At some point Denis Shapovalov will break through past one of the Big Three, but I think the return has to be significantly improved and I am going to look for the Spaniard to reach the Semi Final in three or four sets.
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 sets v Gael Monfils: It has been a very good career, but this looks like being one of the last chances for Gael Monfils to fulfil the potential most believed he had before he turned pro.
At 35 years old, the Frenchman looked to have seen his best days on the court, but Gael Monfils has had a very strong Indian Summer in Australia and he has managed to win a title already. He has backed that up very well with Gael Monfils winning all four matches at Melbourne Park without dropping a set and his numbers have been very strong.
Gael Monfils has held almost 93% of the service games played at the Australian Open and that has allowed him to put a lot of pressure on his opponents. That has helped Gael Monfils in breaking in 44% of return games too, although the level of performance suggests the Frenchman may already have peaked in the tournament.
That will be a major problem for Gael Monfils if it proves to be true as he is next up against Matteo Berrettini who has become a very familiar face at the business end of Grand Slam tournaments. He reached the Final at Wimbledon last year and the Italian is the favourite to make his way to the Semi Final at the Australian Open after crushing Pablo Carreno Busta in the Fourth Round.
Matteo Berrettini has not impressed as much as Gael Monfils in terms of pure numbers, but the Italian has had a much more difficult run. His serve continues to be a potent weapon with 92% of games being held in this tournament, but Matteo Berrettini has done enough with his return to find the breaks he has needed to win matches.
It should be noted that he has dropped four sets already in the tournament and I do think Gael Monfils will push Matteo Berrettini, much like he did when these two met in the Quarter Final at the US Open in 2019. On that occasion it took five sets to decide a winner, although Berrettini was a much more comfortable winner when these two met at the ATP Cup in 2021.
The numbers in the two matches between these players on the hard courts do not make good reading for Gael Monfils and I do think this is a big step up for him. Winning the title in Adelaide is a confidence booster for the Frenchman, but he has yet to face anyone Ranked inside the top 20 of the World Rankings in 2022 and I think a battle hardened and progressing Matteo Berrettini will have too much for him.
Both players have been serving well, but the feeling is that Matteo Berrettini is more likely to sustain the current levels and Gael Monfils may not be able to get into the return games as he has in this tournament. I expect him to be closer than he was when losing in straight sets at the ATP Cup, but at the same time I think Matteo Berrettini is much improved from September 2019 and he can find a way to win this one in much cleaner fashion than their last hard court Quarter Final meeting at a Grand Slam.
Madison Keys v Barbora Krejcikova: There is still going to be a real feeling within every player left in the Women's draw that they can win this Grand Slam and the wide open nature of the draw means there have been plenty of close matches, upsets and good tennis to watch.
Both Madison Keys and Barbora Krejcikova won their Fourth Round matches as the underdog and I think there is going to be a confidence in their tennis in this Quarter Final. Barbora Krejcikova is a Grand Slam Champion, but Madison Keys is playing as close to her best as is possible and has reached the business end of three of the four Grand Slams.
The American is a former Semi Finalist here in Melbourne and will be looking to match that run at the very least, while Madison Keys has reached the Final at the US Open before coming up a little short on the day. Recent seasons have been much tougher for Madison Keys who has not reached a Quarter Final at a Grand Slam since 2019, but she has played at a very high level this month.
It is a level that has already produced a title for Madison Keys, but she will be challenged all the way by Barbora Krejcikova who reached the Final of a warm up tournament before the Australian Open began. The Czech player dominated Victoria Azarenka in the last Round, but I think Krejcikova will know full well that this is a different kind of test and one that should be much tougher.
Both players have been serving really well, but it is Barbora Krejcikova who has performed a little better on the return- it is the main area of concern for Madison Keys and has perhaps been the reason she has fallen down the World Rankings, but I do think the American has her eye in so far this month.
The key for both players is trying to get enough first serves in so they can play first strike tennis, and I am giving Madison Keys enough of an edge in this one to make her worthy of backing. The American has been more consistent of the two players in the tournament so far and I think at key moments in this match that should stand her in good stead as Madison Keys becomes the first Semi Finalist at the Australian Open in 2022.
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: When you look at the final eight names left in the Women's draw at the Australian Open in 2022, most would likely tip up Ashleigh Barty as the favourite to win this Grand Slam tournament. There is pressure on her shoulders with the expectant home crowd long believing Ashleigh Barty can end the long wait for a home winner Down Under, but so far the Australian is more than holding her nerve.
Instead Ashleigh Barty has been coasting her way through the opening four Rounds of the Australian Open and she has backed up her performances in winning a title earlier this month. In fact she lost her set played in 2022 and all Ashleigh Barty has done since then is win sixteen sets in a row to produce an 8-0 record.
To underline the dominance, only four of those sets have seen Ashleigh Barty lose four or more games and you won't be surprised that the numbers have been very strong. That suggests she has been very good rather than lucky, although Barty may be the first to admit she expects more from the return of serve.
In the four wins at Melbourne Park the returning numbers have been impressive and the biggest challenge may be between the ears for Ashleigh Barty who has reached the Quarter Final for a fourth year in a row. Only one of those have been converted into a Semi Final place and Barty will know this is going to be anything but a walkover when facing Jessica Pegula.
The American lost both matches before the Australian Open begun, but she made her breakthrough at the Australian Open last year and has backed that up by reaching the Quarter Final again.
A flat Maria Sakkari was beaten in the Fourth Round, but Jessica Pegula has not been that impressive on her run to the Quarter Final this time around and I do think she is going to have raise her game two or three notches to be competitive in this Quarter Final. The serve is a pretty good weapon for Jessica Pegula, but she is only winning 42% of return points in this tournament and Pegula won three tight matches earlier in the tournament.
Those were against players Ranked way below Ashleigh Barty and their sole previous meeting came at the French Open which was won by the Australian in straight sets. That was in the First Round in 2019 and Ashleigh Barty went on to win her first Grand Slam title so she will be hoping a win over Jessica Pegula could be part of another Slam success.
I do think Jessica Pegula will be competitive, but I think Ashleigh Barty will have the lion share of the break points and her current form could see her pull away for a win and a cover of this spread.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 34-26, + 5.78 Units (120 Units Staked, + 4.82% Yield)
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