The four Semi Final matches at the Australian Open have gone exactly the way the Picks were hoping and it has rallied after a slump in the selections in the middle of the tournament.
Just two matches remain at the first Grand Slam of the season and then I will be having a short break from the Tennis Picks too before looking to return when the first ATP 500 event of the season is scheduled to be played in Rotterdam. There are big events in the Middle East in February before the Tour moves onto the first Masters events on the hard courts of the United States, but before all that I am looking to round off this event with a couple more winners.
First up is the Women's Final and it is hard to look beyond the home hope.
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Danielle Collins: Neither one of these players have let me down at the Australian Open when I have backed them and I think it is a fitting Final between Ashleigh Barty and Danielle Collins who have been the two best players in the draw.
Once again the Women's game has underlined the feeling that it is a wide open draw at any Grand Slam being played with Danielle Collins the latest to reach a Final from left field. The number of new Winners and faces that not many would have tipped up to win a Grand Slam has been eye-opening to the void at the top of the Women's game and Danielle Collins will certainly believe she is capable of being the latest to join the likes of Bianca Andreescu, Sofia Kenin, Iga Swiatek, Barbora Krejcikova and Emma Raducanu as unfamiliar names to the casual viewer who have won Grand Slam titles.
Only two names have won multiple Slam titles in that time- Naomi Osaka had been dominant on the hard courts, but the other is Ashleigh Barty and the World Number 1 can underline her place at the top of the Women's game. A third Grand Slam on a third different surface would be a huge achievement and perhaps the void at the top is finally going to be filled by someone who may go into the next three Grand Slams as the favourite to win it all.
Ashleigh Barty is under pressure here as Australia looks for a first home Champion in Melbourne since 1978, but she has looked remarkably composed and showed little fear in demolishing Madison Keys in the Semi Final. You have to say that Ashleigh Barty has not really been tested at all in the tournament as she has backed up her pre-Australian Open form and I don't think she is going to be beaten now, unless suddenly realising what she is about to achieve.
Having won the French Open in 2019 and Wimbledon in 2021, I think Ashleigh Barty looks to have the right mentality to cope with the pressure. She is simply proving too strong for all she has faced and the straight sets win over Keys means Ashleigh Barty has won twenty sets in a row and players are barely winning games against her.
Danielle Collins is serving well at the tournament and I think that will stand her in good stead, but the pressure that is being built up by Ashleigh Barty may be too much to deal with. I have a lot of respect for the way the American has handled herself through adversity in this tournament and her last two wins have been very impressive as she has dismantled the games of Alize Cornet and Iga Swiatek.
The hard courts are well suited to Danielle Collins' game and she did beat Ashleigh Barty in Adelaide last year, a match that will be on her mind when coming into this one. She knows she can beat Barty, but I think the level of the Australian has gone up considerably since their last match in February 2021, and I would be surprised if Ashleigh Barty is not able to find a way to control the direction of this match once getting through a tight opening set.
As good as Danielle Collins has played at Melbourne Park, the numbers being produced by Ashleigh Barty are at an incredible level and she looks a player ready to make a bit of history. It would take a serious drop off of her intensity to see her fail to win the Australian Open now and I think it could be a seriously tough day in the office for Danielle Collins if she is not getting around 70% or better of her first serves in play.
Even then, Ashleigh Barty has been the considerably better return player on the numbers and I think she is going to find a way through a tight set before turning the screw and pulling away for a win and a cover.
MY PICK: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 41-31, + 9.64 Units (144 Units Staked, + 6.69% Yield)
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