Alexander Zverev suffered a straight sets loss to Denis Shapovalov in the Fourth Round, but the top half of the Men's and Women's events have had the Quarter Final line up put together. I still believe Ashleigh Barty and Daniil Medvedev are the correct favourites to win the tournament over the coming days, but both events do still look to be wide open and I think every player remaining in the draw will believe they can go and win the event.
It should make for some very tough tennis matches to come and will perhaps elevate the Australian Open that has suffered without Novak Djokovic and not really produced the epic matches that people will be tuning into Grand Slams to see.
Jannik Sinner - 1.5 sets v Alex De Minaur: It was a tougher than expected Third Round win for Jannik Sinner, but he did manage to weather the storm and roll through the last two sets against Taro Daniel. The young Italian is continuing to make waves on the Tour, but I think he will be the first to admit that he is going to have to be much better in this Fourth Round tie as he deals with an opponent and what is likely going to be a very loud crowd.
The Australian hopes will largely be pinned on Ashleigh Barty in the Women's event, but Alex De Minaur is still standing in the Men's draw as he has reached the second week at his home Grand Slam for the first time. Expectations are still not going to be weighing heavy on the shoulders of Alex De Minaur, but he has to enjoy being in this position and has to use the crowd to help him battle against a tough opponent.
Alex De Minaur has had a strong week at Melbourne Park and backed up some solid performances at the ATP Cup, but he has to be aware of the challenge in front of him. The wins secured so far have not been against anyone Ranked inside the top 59 of the World Rankings, so you could argue that the Australian has done what most would have expected from him.
However, in saying that, you have to be impressed with anyone who has won nine sets in a row in a Grand Slam and the numbers have been very strong. The serve is working really well for Alex De Minaur and it has allowed him free reign to put a lot of pressure on his opponents when it comes to the return part of his game.
I do think Alex De Minaur will be tested in a different way against someone like Jannik Sinner who has been really good in 2022 and will be looking for a seventh straight win. Take away one poor set against Taro Daniel, and Jannik Sinner has really dominated at the Australian Open and backed up some strong numbers produced at the ATP Cup too.
An aggressive return game has seen Jannik Sinner surge into the top ten of the World Rankings and he has broken in 41% of return games played at the Australian Open. I do think he will put Alex De Minaur under more pressure than the first three opponents have been able to manage and Sinner also holds a mental edge with pro wins over this opponent.
When they met in Sofia on the hard courts around fifteen months ago, Jannik Sinner broke in 33% of return games played compared with Alex De Minaur's 7% mark. While I don't think those wide margins will be replicated in this match, I do think Jannik Sinner is the superior tennis player at this stage of their careers and I think the Italian will find a way to cool down the crowd and move through in three or four sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Taylor Fritz: If you look at the two halves of the Men's draw, there is no doubt that the bottom half looks a more loaded with players capable of going on and winning this Grand Slam. Losing Novak Djokovic was a big blow to the tournament, but it gives others a chance to shine and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to believe he is going to have the tennis to go very far in a tournament he has enjoyed in his career.
I still make Daniil Medvedev the favourite in the bottom half to reach the Final, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has thrived at Melbourne Park thanks to the huge amount of support he receives at this tournament. We have yet to see Stefanos Tsitsipas at his easy best, but he has played well in Melbourne and he looks to be peaking as he gets set to begin his second week at the Australian Open.
He is also much more experienced than his opponent in the Fourth Round as Taylor Fritz reaches the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time. There has been plenty of promise around Taylor Fritz and he has long been thought of as the next star of American tennis, but he has yet to make an impact at this level and this tournament may be his event to really announce himself.
Taylor Fritz had a very tough win in the Third Round as he came back from 2-1 down in sets to beat veteran Roberto Bautista Agut, while he was cramping at the end of his win over compatriot Frances Tiafoe in the Second Round. With that in mind, you have to believe Stefanos Tsitsipas may be thinking of making this a physical match to see if he can break down Taylor Fritz in that manner as much as anything else.
The American has played well this month, but he will find it difficult to sustain the return numbers which have really propelled his run. This time Taylor Fritz has to deal with an opponent who has a very big serve and Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 71% of service points played at Melbourne Park, leading to 93% of games being held behind that shot.
It will put pressure on Taylor Fritz who has held 81% of his own service games at the tournament so far and I do think it will prove to be the difference in serving numbers that end up making the difference between the players. That was the case when Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Taylor Fritz in their sole previous meeting on the Tour and I think the Greek player can find a way to move through to the Quarter Final in three or four sets.
Marin Cilic v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Backing up an upset in a Grand Slam tournament can be very difficult, but you have to believe the veteran Marin Cilic is used to winning in those conditions and is well equipped to deal with the emotions. He was deserving of his win over Andrey Rublev in the Third Round and beating one of the contenders will have Marin Cilic believing he can go one better than previously at the Australian Open as a former Runner Up.
it may also be easier dealing with the win in the Third Round as an underdog and that is what Marin Cilic will be in the Fourth Round when he takes on youngster Felix Auger-Aliassime.
The Canadian was very fortunate to even reach the Third Round before completely overwhelming Daniel Evans, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has to know that he is going to be tested in this one. The 0-3 head to head against Marin Cilic will only focus Auger-Aliassime a bit more and those defeats will feel pretty fresh in the mind of the younger player.
Two Semi Final runs before the Australian Open will have Marin Cilic in a good frame of mind though and he has been performing well this month and at the Australian Open. The Croatian has served well, but a declining returning game looks to have been rejuvenated in the Australian summer and Marin Cilic has to believe that gives him every chance of earning the upset for a second match in succession.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has won six of his eight matches in January, but his numbers have not nearly been as impressive as Marin Cilic and that makes him a vulnerable favourite. The serve can be a big weapon for the Canadian, but he remains a player with a fairly average return and that is where the difference can be made in this match.
It has certainly been the difference in their previous matches against one another with Felix Auger-Aliassime breaking in 13% of return games played and Marin Cilic doing the same in 34% of return games played.
My feeling is that if Marin Cilic can maintain his form on the serve, he is the better return player of the two players and that can be enough for the veteran to win this match. It might be tight, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes the distance, but I think Marin Cilic is the play as the odds against underdog.
Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Alize Cornet: You could see the almost surprise in the eyes of Alize Cornet as she turned her Third Round match around, but she is going to have to be a lot better if trying to take out one of the favourites to win the Australian Open. All credit has to be given to any player that shows the fight that Alize Cornet produced to turn her last match around, but spending 17 minutes shy of almost three hours on court to do so is not ideal for any player.
A day of rest will help, but Alize Cornet is going to be having to work very hard to win this match and I do think accumulated fatigue is going to play a part. A winning record over Simona Halep will be good for the mind too, but those matches were some time ago and they should not be an overriding factor in the match.
It certainly won't be something that will be bothering Simona Halep too much considering the kind of level she has been producing in January and in the Australian Open. The eight wins already secured in 2022 have largely come in one-sided fashion too and the former World Number 1 is backing up her serve very effectively at Melbourne Park, which has put her opponents under pressure.
Serving well is one thing, but Simona Halep has been very good on the returning side of her game in the tournament so far with almost 59% of return points won through her first three matches at the Australian Open. The Romanian will find it tough to maintain that kind of level throughout the second week, but they are eye-catching numbers and I do think Simona Halep is going to be able to pressurise Alize Cornet.
You should not take anything away from the Frenchwoman considering she has beaten Garbine Muguruza in the Second Round here, but I can't help feel she is going up against someone who is playing at a very high level. Alize Cornet didn't have the best preparation for the Australian Open and she has a second serve that will be attacked by Simona Halep in this Fourth Round match, which is where I believe Cornet will eventually be broken down.
I do think Alize Cornet is good enough to at least push Simona Halep at times, but if she drops the first set, the feeling of fatigue will weight heavily on her and potentially allow the favourite to pull away with a cover of this mark.
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: There were three upsets in the top half of the Women's draw at the Australian Open on Day 7, but I do think the favourites can bounce back on Day 8. The Fourth Round is completed at Melbourne Park and I do think a former Grand Slam Champion can move through to the last eight when Iga Swiatek takes to the court.
While the Grand Slam won by Iga Swiatek was played on the clay courts of Paris, this is a player that has shown improvement on the hard courts in recent years. The progression has been clear from the numbers and I think it is entirely plausible to believe that Iga Swiatek is ready to push further forward on the surface.
Winning the Australian Open will underline the progress being made by Iga Swiatek and I do think she has proven she enjoys the conditions in Australian during their summer. She won a title on the hard courts here back in February 2021 and it took Ashleigh Barty's quality to beat Iga Swiatek in a warm up event for the Australian Open this season.
Iga Swiatek may not look a player with the biggest serve, but she is a player that has backed up that shot very effectively on the hard courts and it has been a big weapon for her in Melbourne. It seems to have freed her up when it comes to the return and in the three wins at the Australian Open, Iga Swiatek has won 52% of return points played.
That will put some pressure on Sorana Cirstea, but you cannot underestimate a player that has reached the Fourth Round with wins over two top 20 Ranked opponents already. Inconsistencies have prevented Sorana Cirstea from breaking into the top 20 of the World Rankings in her career, but she is a competitor capable of producing high level tennis on her day and that was proven to both Petra Kvitova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
A couple of one-sided losses in warm up events prior to the Australian Open are a little worrying for Sorana Cirstea, while in recent seasons she has pretty average numbers on the hard courts. The service numbers at this tournament have been considerably better than what is usually expected from Cirstea and the question is whether she can maintain that level for as long as she will need to win a tournament like this.
I think that is unlikely to be honest and I do think Iga Swiatek will make Sorana Cirstea work very hard on this side of her game. The Romanian should be able to challenge the Swiatek serve too, but I think the higher Ranked player is in very good form at the moment and can eventually wear down her opponent and pull clear.
Kaia Kanepi + 4.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: The Double Fault issues that have been blighting Aryna Sabalenka prior to the start of the Australian Open had been the main reason the World Number 2 was considered such an outsider to the win the tournament. She has yet to win a Grand Slam, but came very close at the US Open, and there have been signs that the serve is still vulnerable.
However, Aryna Sabalenka is nothing if not a fighter and she has managed to earn her place in the second week of the Australian Open and from here all is possible. She was an underdog in the Third Round against Marketa Vondrousova, but the Belarusian refuses to count herself out and recovered from a set down to beat the left hander.
It is the third match at the Australian Open where Aryna Sabalenka has lost the first set and fought back in 2022, but in the first two matches she was the favourite and doing so as an underdog has to be respected. The layers are back behind her in the Fourth Round, but the Double Faults continue to be an issue and I do think that makes it hard to believe in Aryna Sabalenka as such a big favourite.
Aryna Sabalenka will be facing an opponent who also needed to rally from a difficult start to make her way through to the Fourth Round- Kaia Kanepi was behind home hope Maddison Inglis, but rolled through the last two sets to earn her place in the second week. The Estonian has not been the most impressive on the hard courts in recent seasons with some inconsistent performances, but the wins at Melbourne Park should strengthen her belief in making a strong run the rest of the way.
There is a clear difference between the players in terms of numbers over the few seasons on the hard courts, but Kaia Kanepi did beat Aryna Sabalenka in Australia last year. That will her with her belief in upsetting the World Number 2, while Kaia Kanepi may feel her second serve is a bit more reliable under pressure than Aryna Sabalenka's.
Dealing with the Aryna Sabalenka serve will still be a challenge, but I also think Kaia Kanepi has been returning with some quality to believe she can make the favourite feel some pressure. When they met last season, it was the Kanepi second serve that proved to be the difference in a three set match and I am looking for that to at least keep the underdog competitive in this Fourth Round match.
I am a big fan of Aryna Sabalenka and know only too well she can wipe out any player she faces in the blink of an eye, but the service troubles have just seen her lacking some confidence. She has dropped at least a set in all three matches at the Australian Open and you have to imagine Kaia Kanepi is playing well enough to do the same here, which will make the number of games being given to her look really appealing and potentially decisive.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.61 Coral (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 32-22, + 10.74 Units (108 Units Staked, + 9.94% Yield)
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