The NFL Championship Games in the PlayOffs are going to be played on Sunday and I am looking to round off what has been a difficult season with some positive momentum to take into the 2022 season.
With just three games left until September, I am hoping the Championship Games are even half as fun as the last two weekends have proven to be.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: In the regular season, it was the Cincinnati Bengals win over the Kansas City Chiefs which cost the latter home field advantage in the PlayOffs. However, the same Bengals have been to the Number 1 Seeded Tennessee Titans in the post-season and knocked them off, which has allowed the Chiefs to host another AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead.
The Chiefs were a little fortunate to come away with a win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round, but they blew out the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round. Their opponents, the Cincinnati Bengals, have been involved in two close wins over the Titans and previously the Las Vegas Raiders, but the win over Kansas City in Week 17 will not be far from the minds of either set of players.
It does make me wonder if this line is a touch too high considering what the Bengals did against the Chiefs in that win at home, and especially when you think of how Josh Allen carved up this Kansas City Secondary last week. A coin toss and some poor game management cost Buffalo as much as anything else, but I do think the Kansas City Chiefs will feel destiny is on their side after that victory.
In saying that, Cincinnati have nothing to lose as a big underdog and they will feel they have learnt plenty from the Chiefs in the win over them. Joe Burrow is a Quarter Back that has been very successful in the post-season both as a College player and a pro, and I do think the Bengals have full belief in their Quarter Back.
However, the Offensive Line has got to play a lot better than what we have seen in the post-season when Joe Burrow has been under siege at times. He was battered by the Tennessee Titans to the point where the win over the Number 1 Seed has been even more unexpected, and Joe Burrow is going to need a lot more support from the Offensive Line if he is going to avoid a defeat in this one.
Joe Mixon will be important as the Bengals will look to establish the run against a Kansas City Defensive Line which has been inconsistent up front. As good as Mixon has been at Running Back, the Bengals Offensive Line has not really been as strong as Cincinnati fans would have liked and they have struggled to open holes up front as much as they have struggled in protecting Joe Burrow.
Kansas City do not have the same kind of pass rush as the Titans, but they are good enough to at least get in Joe Burrow's face and that could lead to some mistakes for someone who will be playing the biggest game of his life. Winning a National Championship should give Joe Burrow plenty of confidence, but reaching a Super Bowl is a different level and beating Kansas City on the road is going to be a monster challenge for the Quarter Back.
I think Joe Burrow will score points with the Bengals much as Josh Allen did in the Divisional Round, but I also think he is not playing to the same level as the Buffalo Bills Quarter Back. If the Cincinnati Offensive Line is not able to set up the run, I do think it could be tough to throw the ball with the crowd at Arrowhead Stadium compared with how Joe Burrow played at home.
Joe Burrow will get his points, but Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are very likely to get theirs and I think they will have enough to move into another Super Bowl after beating arguably the best team in the AFC. The narrow win over the Buffalo Bills will have given the Chiefs every bit of confidence and I do think they are still going to play with an attitude of being overlooked with many believing the Cincinnati Bengals may be able to find an upset.
Running the ball may not be high on the agenda when it comes to the play-calling, but the Chiefs should be able to establish the ground game whenever they have the ball. The Bengals Defensive Line has struggled and putting Patrick Mahomes in a position to get the play-action and quick passes going is a position that no Defensive unit really wants to be in.
The feeling is that Patrick Mahomes can have a very big game with the team capable of moving the ball on the ground and he should be under very little pass rush pressure too. This is important for the Kansas City Chiefs and I do think they will be well aware that many feel the Bengals could potentially upset them here.
Kansas City were fortunate to cover last week, but they are now 6-0 against the spread in their last six as the home favourite. This is a game in which many are tipping up the Bengals to perhaps upset the Chiefs and I do think that is down to the Week 17 game, but this time the Chiefs are unlikely to be overlooking their opponent and it should show up in the AFC Championship Game.
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are here to stay, but this may be a lesson for them that helps them grow and I will back the Kansas City Chiefs to find the Offensive balance to pull clear and cover.
The public look to be behind the Cincinnati Bengals too and I think that only hardens my belief that the Kansas City Chiefs are the right side.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The long-term thinking for most casual fans is that it is very difficult to beat a team three times in the NFL season, but the actual facts play out somewhat differently.
Last season the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did avoid the sweep to the New Orleans Saints, but ten of the last fourteen teams looking to beat a Divisional rival for a third time in the same season have managed to do just that. The San Francisco 49ers have beaten the Los Angeles Rams twice already in 2021 and they are a team with momentum as they look for a third road win in a row in the NFL PlayOffs to reach the Super Bowl.
Knocking off the Number 1 Seeded Green Bay Packers on the road days after doing the same to the Dallas Cowboys has given the 49ers confidence. The fans are happy to pay the prices to make this feel like a home game too, although the fact is that teams looking for a sweep of three games in one season have struggled a little more on the road than they have at home.
Now the 49ers have to also face a Los Angeles Rams team that have looked pretty strong in beating the Arizona Cardinals and reigning Super Bowl Champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You could argue that Matthew Stafford is playing the best Football of the season at Quarter Back and the Los Angeles Rams know that two home wins will secure a Super Bowl title.
It puts pressure on the Rams and I think the Offensive unit is going to be tested by the San Francisco Defense which has been playing at a high level in the post-season. They have limited the Cowboys and Packers to a combined 27 points on the road and beating the Rams twice will mean the Defensive unit go into the Championship Game with full belief they can do the same here.
The 49ers held the Rams to 34 combined points in the two games in the regular season and they will feel being able to keep them at the average will give their team every chance of progressing to the Super Bowl. They do look to match up pretty well with the Rams on this side of the ball and that is very much down to the fact that the Defensive Line has been able to control the line of scrimmage.
Cam Akers is back for the Los Angeles Rams, but I am not sure they are going to find much room from conventional running plays. The game plan may be for Matthew Stafford to get the ball out into the flat in his playmaker's arms as quickly as possible and look for some yards after the catch in place of a running game.
However, failing to be able to run the ball allows the San Francisco pass rushers to pin back their ears and put Matthew Stafford under pressure at Quarter Back. With a banged up Offensive Line, the Rams may struggle to contain the 49ers in third and long and that has helped a Secondary make some big plays.
Stopping the Rams and all of their weapons completely is not going to be easy, but the 49ers have shown they match up well with them on this side of the ball. Los Angeles have also been so reliant on the pass that it has bred some inconsistencies in their Offensive drives and I certainly believe the 49ers have the Defense which can keep them in this game.
It sounds like Jimmy Garoppolo will be leaving the San Francisco 49ers in the off-season even if he helps the team win the Super Bowl and that is largely down to the fact that most believe the Quarter Back is fortunate to play in the system. He made some poor decisions in the first two games of the PlayOffs and that is a concern for the team, although he may benefit from not having to throw the ball too often.
Jimmy Garoppolo had a good game in the win over the Los Angeles Rams in this Stadium last month, but the 49ers are going to want to give the ball to their Running Backs and Deebo Samuel for as much as possible. The Quarter Back will have to keep the Rams honest, but the 49ers do match up well with the Rams who have struggled to stop the run and I expect to see long, extended drives from the 49ers in this one.
There has been some improvements with the level of performance of the Rams Defensive Line, but someone like Samuel is a huge match up problem depending on where he lines up and that should mean San Francisco are able to establish the run. Getting in front of the chains will just slow a Rams pass rush, which is very dangerous, and the key for the 49ers is looking to get Trent Williams on the field.
Injuries in the Los Angeles Secondary should give Jimmy Garoppolo a chance to have another decent showing in this Stadium, but turnovers are going to be a huge factor in this game. He has to be more careful with the accuracy of his passes, but I do think the Quarter Back can do enough to keep up with the Rams and potentially win this one outright.
The underdog has now covered in six straight between these Divisional rivals and San Francisco are 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road against the Rams. Under Kyle Shanahan they have had the better of Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams and the 49ers have covered the last four times these teams have met.
San Francisco are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the road underdog, including going 2-0 in the NFL PlayOffs, and I think they are getting just enough points to cover here.
MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
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