Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 14 2021 (November 30-December 2)

I missed out on the Weekend post for the Fantasy Football GW13 and that is only good news after an awful performance from my team.

I ended up with more bookings than goals, but more on that below.

First, my thoughts on the full round of midweek Premier League games that will be played this week as the busy December schedule gets going for all in the top flight.

Newcastle United v Norwich City Pick: You don't really want to be talking about relegation six pointers at the end of November, but there is no disguising how important this fixture is to both Newcastle United and Norwich City.

Both are inside the relegation zone and both are operating under new management, although the feeling is that Newcastle United could make rapid progress up the Premier League table if they are in touch with those sides above them when the January transfer window opens up.

This week will go a long way to seeing them do that as Newcastle United look for a first win of the season- they face the two teams immediately above them in the Premier League standings over the coming days and I think Eddie Howe will be feeling very different pressures depending on the results earned.

The pressure is on Newcastle United, but they did play well in the 3-3 home draw with Brentford in Eddie Howe's first game in charge of the club. The Magpies created a lot of chances and they are facing a Norwich City team that is still a work in progress under Dean Smith and who have conceded plenty of away goals.

Dean Smith has led his team to four points from a possible six so the confidence will be better, but I expect Norwich City to be challenged by their hosts. The chances Newcastle United created in the game with Brentford is evidence of how Eddie Howe will want his team to play, but the defensive suspensions leave them vulnerable considering the amount of goals they have been conceding.

Newcastle United are vulnerable defensively, although you wouldn't be that encouraged in backing Norwich City to exploit them. The latter did create some decent chances against Wolves, but poor finishing has been letting them down and that does have me leaning towards the home team to earn a first win of the season.

However, the history of Eddie Howe suggests his teams will always give up chances even if they are able to create some and this may be a fixture that ends with at least three goals shared out. In their last away game, Norwich City did score twice in a win at Brentford and I think this is a game that could be sparked if there is a goal either way inside the first half hour.

When these clubs last met in February 2020, the fixture ended goalless here. That ended a run of five successive meetings between Newcastle United and Norwich City that ended with three or more goals scored and I think that is the most likely outcome of this one too.

Leeds United v Crystal Palace Pick: The midweek Premier League fixture list gives teams the chance to bounce back and build some momentum going into the very busy December month. Both Leeds United and Crystal Palace have to look at this as an opportunity and neither will be back in action until next Sunday so the two managers can urge their squad to produce a big performance.

This is a very tough match for both of these teams- Leeds United have underperformed this season, but they have saved some of their better performances for games at Elland Road. Losing key players at the top and bottom of the pitch has hurt Leeds United and prevented them building any consistency, while manager Marcelo Bielsa feels his squad have been overloaded by all of the football they have been asked to play.

Leeds United were poor against Brighton on Saturday and they can ill-afford to defend as poorly against a Crystal Palace team looking to bounce back from a 1-2 home loss to Aston Villa. Patrick Vieira's men have been in good form, but they continue to be vulnerable from set pieces and defensively there are more questions than answers under their new manager.

It is the change in mindset from Roy Hodgson to Patrick Vieira which has not helped, but it does mean Crystal Palace are posing more of a threat going forward. They are a team who can be very dangerous on the counter attack, but Crystal Palace have also been a little more confident with the ball and they have scored at least twice in 4 of their 6 away Premier League games this season.

Again, it is the defensive issues that have prevented Crystal Palace from winning more matches, but Leeds United have not been performing as they would have liked from an attacking point of view. They do have quality players in the home team that can cause problems with set piece play that has hurt The Eagles, but I also think Crystal Palace will head to Elland Road feeling confident about their own ability to create chances and score goals.

Crystal Palace do not have a good recent record at Elland Road with six straight losses here, but they are a team that is performing better than their results may indicate. I think they are capable of finding a positive result here with that in mind and to leave Leeds United perhaps scratching around for answers as to how they are going to pull clear of the bottom three.

Southampton v Leicester City Pick: For the second season in a row, Southampton were reduced to ten men inside 12 minutes in a home game against Leicester City, but this time they avoided an embarrassment.

The 0-9 home defeat will not be forgotten easily, but back in April Southampton battled and earned a 1-1 draw with Leicester City and they will need to do the same here after the 4-0 loss at Liverpool on Saturday. It was another naive team selection from Ralph Hasenhuttl, but the manager has guided Southampton to a pretty solid start to this season and he will be expecting a reaction.

Scoring enough goals continues to be the main concern around Southampton, but they are facing a Leicester City team who are conceding at an alarming rate. Even the 4-2 win over Watford won't have eased any concerns about the defensive performances and that was the 6th time in 8 Premier League games that they have conceded at least twice.

I expect the home team to have some joy going forward in this one, although Southampton are hard to trust as they continue to try and fill the Danny Ings sized hole at the top of the pitch. Che Adams and Adam Armstrong have shown flashes, but consistency is the key at the Premier League level and both need to improve.

The Saints are also not as strong defensively as some of their performances have suggested and six goals conceded since the November international break is a worry. Leicester City might be conceding goals, but they have been good in the final third at creating chances, while they had scored at least twice in 3 away games in a row in all competitions before the 1-1 draw at Leeds United.

Both teams may actually feel they are better off trying to get forward and hurt the other defensively and it could lead to a high-scoring game. That seems to be the lean most are having and I do think both teams will hit the back of the net in this one, while the three points should keep both motivated to push for a winner.

All 3 games between Leicester City and Southampton were low-scoring affairs last season, but on current form of the two defences, it would b a real surprise if that happens here on Wednesday evening.

Watford v Chelsea Pick: Games are going to be played every few days over the coming five and a half weeks and that puts pressure on every squad in the Premier League.

It has to be a big worry for Watford and their current manager when you think of the amount of injuries they are dealing with. Claudio Ranieri could be without key personnel at both ends of the pitch and that leaves Watford vulnerable, despite the fact that the fans will be back at Vicarage Road for the first time since hammering Manchester United.

Beating that English giant is not the same as beating the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City, who both visit Vicarage Road over the next few days, and I do think Watford could find it difficult. They were battered by Liverpool in Claudio Ranieri's first game in charge of Watford, and the worry for the home team is that they have struggled defensively in Ranieri's time at the helm.

Watford conceded four times on Sunday at Leicester City and now they have to take on a Chelsea team that have been creating plenty of chances even if they have suffered another frustrating day that resulted in dropped points.

The 1-1 draw with Manchester United will have hurt, but Chelsea have a quick opportunity to make amends and they have looked largely secure at the back.

Chelsea have not conceded in any of their last 4 away Premier League games and 3 of those have ended in 0-3 wins with a lot more composure shown without the pressure of playing at Stamford Bridge. I think that could show up here against the injury hit hosts they are facing and Chelsea may even have Romelu Lukaku back to lead the line on Wednesday as they look to get back to winning ways.

Games at Vicarage Road have never really been easy for Chelsea, but this may be one of the more straight-forward wins they are able to produce. I think they are likely to come away with a comfortable win on the night with another strong defensive display helping lay the foundation for Chelsea to attack a vulnerable Watford backline.

West Ham United v Brighton Pick: Both of these teams had disappointing results this past weekend, but the Brighton management team have to be happier by what they have seen in terms of a performance.

On another day, Brighton would have comfortably seen off Leeds United, but poor finishing has become a feature of the club under Graham Potter. The overall football is very good to watch, but Brighton missed some golden chances and look like they are back to underperforming when it comes to converting good chances into goals.

Even with that in mind, it was a real surprise to hear the Brighton fans boo off their team and manager Graham Potter was clearly irritated by the supporters. It is a massive surprise that Brighton fans feel that way and perhaps they should speak to Charlton Athletic fans who got above their station at a time the club were overachieving.

Being away from home may not be a bad thing for Brighton this week, but they are facing a West Ham United team who have been performing well in recent games at the London Stadium. David Moyes will be demanding his team to bounce back from sub-par performances at Wolves and Manchester City which have led to deserved defeats, and this has been a tough match up for West Ham United.

Since Brighton have been promoted back to the top Division, West Ham United have failed to beat them at home. That might play on them at the back of their minds, while Brighton have continued to defend well enough to be able to give opponents some real problems.

They can't really be trusted in front of goal though, even with the amount of goals they have managed at the London Stadium, while West Ham United have looked a little lethargic in the final third in their last couple of Premier League games.

This could see this match develop into a tight, competitive affair and I would not be surprised if one of the teams fail to find the back of the net. Both have defended pretty well at times this season, but since returning from the November international break, both have also had some difficulties creating good chances.

My lean is with the home team to bounce back, but they may need a clean sheet to do that.

Wolves v Burnley Pick: Having a few extra days off from the intensity of a Premier League fixture may work in Burnley's favour, but they are also going to be missing a couple of key players in what may have been considered the more winnable of two games to be played.

James Tarkowski and Ashley Westwood are both yet to serve a suspension and I do think that could leave Burnley vulnerable, even if Wolves are unlikely to be a team to blow away any opponent they face.

Wolves have been better at home in recent weeks though and have won 3 Premier League games in a row here and I do think that will give them confidence. They were not at their best in the goalless draw at Norwich City on Saturday, but Wolves remain a pretty steady team defensively.

Bruno Lage is frustrated that he is only operating with a relatively small squad and that means freshening things up is not a great option for him. Wolves have a couple of big League games to come here over the next few days and the manager will be looking to manage the minutes as much as he can.

His team also played this past weekend, while Burnley ended up getting more rest than anticipated, and I do think Wolves are a plenty short price considering their lack of goals. Burnley have continued to churn out results away from home, even where they have had to ride their luck, but they won't find it easy to score against Wolves.

Goals may not be the order of the day in this fixture considering the attacking issues both have had. 3 of the last 4 between these clubs at Molineux have ended with one, or both, of the teams failing to score and I think that may be the outcome of this fixture too considering the struggles we have seen for consistency in the final third.

Aston Villa v Manchester City Pick: You have to be a little impressed with the way that Steven Gerrard's first two games managing Aston Villa have gone, but I also think this is a squad that have been underachieving this season. While we will never know if Dean Smith could have gotten a reaction from the squad, I do think Aston Villa are capable of stringing some positive results together.

The players are working hard for their new manager, but I also think Aston Villa have been fortunate to beat both Brighton and Crystal Palace. They are going to need to be a lot better to see off Manchester City, even with the injuries faced by the Champions, and this is going to be a test for the young, inexperienced Aston Villa manager who has rarely pitted wits with someone like Pep Guardiola.

It was part of the reason Steven Gerrard wanted to manage in the Premier League and he will be working on his team to show defensive discipline and try and frustrate the Manchester City attack. That has been the approach for Aston Villa in their wins over the last couple of games, but I do think it will be a different test to try and contain Manchester City.

Even without Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish, Manchester City have created chances and looked capable of scoring goals. Raheem Sterling may not have been given a lot of opportunities to this point of the season, but he has taken his chances back in the starting line up and Manchester City have refused to miss a beat because of injuries.

Defensively they have looked largely secure and Aston Villa will have to take their chances on the counter attack and hope for something to break their way. Manchester City simply don't offer a lot of spaces, while the Crystal Palace blueprint has been difficult for teams to replicate.

Aston Villa may have the speed and quality to try and do that, but I think Manchester City have momentum. They have won 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions, while Manchester City are dominating the chances in recent games that should be the direction this fixture ends up developing.

As much as the results have improved under their new manager, Aston Villa have yet to really convince and now they have to take on the hottest team in the Premier League. Aston Villa have a poor recent home record against Manchester City and I think the visitors will produce a big performance at Villa Park once again.

Everton v Liverpool Pick: The first Merseyside derby of the season comes at a bad time for Everton and their fans and even hosting the fixture may not be enough to earn a positive result.

Injuries and a loss of form for players has really hurt Everton and the feeling that Rafael Benitez may not be a very good fit here increases in each passing week. Another defeat in the Premier League on Sunday has seen Everton slump back towards the bottom three and you do have to wonder where the club will go if they are beaten by rivals Liverpool on Wednesday.

Rafael Benitez has not been helped by the injuries that have hurt the team right through the spine of the first eleven, but excuses are not going to cut it for a fanbase that links Benitez with their rivals from across Stanley Park. Everton have not been competitive enough in recent fixtures and I think they are facing a really tough night in the office.

In recent years Everton have made it very difficult for Liverpool at Goodison Park and the last 4 derby games here have ended in draws. However, they are now facing a Liverpool team that looks to be in rampant mood when it comes to their attacking output and back to back 4-0 home wins in the Premier League will only improve the mood of the visitors.

Liverpool have also scored 21 away goals in the Premier League already this season and they have been scoring goals regularly on their travels too. That is a real concern for an Everton team who shipped five home goals to Watford not too long ago and I do think they are going to struggle to contain Liverpool.

A Merseyside derby should mean you can throw some of the form guide out of the window, but I am not sure that is the case for this December meeting. Liverpool have been scoring so many goals that it is hard to imagine Everton being able to stay with them, while the fans could make it a very difficult atmosphere for the home team if they fall behind relatively early in this one.

Liverpool have not won by two or more goals at Goodison Park since October 2011, but a little over ten years later they can do the same as they keep the pressure on those above them in the League table.

Tottenham Hotspur v Brentford Pick: Extra preparation time has been afford to Tottenham Hotspur after the game with Burnley was postponed this past Sunday and Antonio Conte will be readying his players for three important home games to be played over an eight day period.

The manager was furious with some of the performances of his squad members last Thursday, but the first team have looked pretty good in the first two Premier League games under Antonio Conte. Tottenham Hotspur created plenty of chances in their win over Leeds United and there are continued signs that Harry Kane might be close to returning to his best form.

For all the negatives about this Tottenham Hotspur team, they are only 4 points off the Champions League places and have a game in hand. Home games with Brentford and Norwich City represent a good chance for Tottenham Hotspur to build momentum and I do think they are going to be too good for their visitors on Thursday.

Thomas Frank did oversee an important win for Brentford on Sunday, but his team have just found things a little more difficult of late. They want to play football in a certain manner, but Brentford are dealing with injuries to some key players and I think they have looked way more vulnerable at the back in their last couple of away games.

Most will be able to see that from the fact that Brentford conceded three times to both Burnley and Newcastle United, but the real worry has to be the amount of chances that both of those struggling teams created. Now it is up to Brentford to try and contain a Tottenham Hotspur team with more talented attackers than Burnley and Newcastle United and I do think the home team will prove to be too strong on the day.

Last season Tottenham Hotspur secured a 2-0 win over Brentford in the League Cup Semi Final and I do think something similar will occur here. Antonio Conte is still trying to put his own stamp on the Tottenham Hotspur team, but the first team have responded pretty well to the manager and I think those players will be restored after the squad players underperformed as badly as they did at Mura in the Europa Conference League.

Tottenham Hotspur's first team should be good enough to expose the issues Brentford have been having at the back in recent away games and I will look for the home team to win a game featuring at least two goals on the night.

Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: There is a renewed optimism around Manchester United after the appointment of Ralf Rangnick on an interim basis, but the fact that the German will be sticking around on a consultancy basis should mean there is a uniform direction in which the club wishes to travel.

It has been a long time since Manchester United have had a clear plan so fans are cautiously optimistic that they have finally realised they need to do this in order to get back to the top of the pile both in England and in Europe.

The new manager will not be taking charge on Thursday, but I expect him to have an input into the team selection. Michael Carrick will be leading the team out as he looks to complete an unbeaten tenure in caretaker charge of Manchester United, but his team will have to be a lot better than they were at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

A defensive game plan saw Manchester United take advantage of a big Chelsea mistake to take the lead, but they never looked comfortable in looking to defend that for the victory. On another day Manchester United would have lost with that level of performance, while they return to Old Trafford looking to erase recent negative memories.

The Theatre of Dreams was turned into a nightmare by Liverpool and Manchester City who have won the last 2 games played here without breaking a sweat.

At least this week Manchester United are not taking on one of the elite clubs of European Football and instead facing an Arsenal team who are still looking for a statement win and performance. Mikel Arteta has to be given a lot of credit for helping his team win games they are expected to win though and that has seen Arsenal move to the edge of the Champions League places in the Premier League.

Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions so confidence should not be a problem. They also kept 3 clean sheets in a row away from home in the Premier League, but Arsenal have been thumped at Manchester City in August and, more recently, at Liverpool a little under two weeks ago.

That shows there is still work to be done to bridge the gap to the top teams, but, like Manchester United, Arsenal will feel this opponent is not up to those levels.

It could lead to a tight game and matches between Arsenal and Manchester United have not been as free-scoring as they were when these two clubs were the leading Premier League teams. Last season they shared out a single goal in 2 Premier League matches and the last 5 between these two clubs have all featured fewer than three goals on the day.

Manchester United have been looking to be a little more responsible defensively and they may be able to keep Arsenal at arm's length. However, that approach has meant Manchester United are not as efficient going forward and Arsenal may feel they can at least contain the attack they face.

The first goal is going to be massive in this game and I think there is going to be little between them on the day. Both have talented attacking players that may be able to create something out of nothing, but I think the defences will largely be on top of this one and the layers may not appreciate that right now.

MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals

Crystal Palace + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Southampton-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals

Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap

West Ham United-Brighton Both Teams to Score- NO

Wolves-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester United-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 14

Weather was supposedly going to play havoc with some of the games in the North West of England, but those conditions were largely expected to be calmer on Sunday.

However, it did not work out as expected and the Burnley vs Tottenham Hotspur postponement really hurt- especially as one of the Free Transfers I used in GW13 were to replace Cristiano Ronaldo with Harry Kane.

Ultimately it was a longer term move and Kane can make up for the missed game with back to back home games against Brentford and Norwich City, but it did not make me feel much better after an awful return from my team.

Picking up more yellow cards than goals is never going to end well and I frustrated myself by waiting another week before making the move from Kai Havertz to Diogo Jota- that indecision has proved costly, but that is the sole transfer I am making in GW14 with a solid looking squad... Well as far as I am concerned anyway.

Finishing up with only 10 starters was a massive blow and I am a little down on the way I have approached things.

I am certainly going to rebalance some of the squad with a couple of hits over the coming GWs, which are turning around pretty quickly in December. The likes of Andreas Christensen, Teemu Pukki and Nelson Semedo are high on my hit-list, but I am not going to be targeting those high owned players like Trent Alexander-Arnold.

I have an idea as to my approach, but Fantasy Football changes quickly and you can never look too far ahead.

However, I do think it is key for a strong squad and a couple of hits should ensure I have eleven starters in most weeks.

Looking at the fixture lists coming up, Manchester United assets look really appealing, but a new manager means there are going to be new ideas that need to be incorporated. It may take a couple of games to figure out what Ralf Rangnick wants to do with the current squad, but we may not see his first team selection until the home game with Crystal Palace on Sunday in GW15 and I will have to make some assumptions about this approach if I want to bring in the United assets for the start of a really good run of games.

It is something I will be thinking about in the coming days, but any move won't be until GW16 and I have some idea about which players I really think will thrive under the interim manager.

That's for another day though and the quick turnaround between GW13 and GW14 means it is a deadline that could catch some out this week.

College Football Week 13 Picks 2021 (November 25-27)

The final week of the regular season of the 2021 College Football campaign will be played over Thanksgiving Weekend and there are some huge games to come over the three days.

I will be updating this thread with selections over the next several hours and I will also place the season totals below.

Boise State Broncos @ San Diego State Aztecs Pick: The 9am local time start for this game in Week 13 of the College Football season underlines the importance of it, because the sole reason for the kick off time is to give the teams a national platform on which they can perform.

We can get a little preoccupied by the College Football PlayOff Rankings, but there are a number of schools around the nation that are achieving big things even if they are not going to be in a position to be selected for those final four places. The Boise State Broncos (7-4) and the San Diego State Aztecs (10-1) are both heading up their respective Divisions in the Mountain West Conference and would be meeting again in the Championship Game next week if the regular season had finished up in Week 12.

Unfortunately it does not end in Week 12 and this is a pivotal game for both teams with both barely holding onto the lead in their Divisions- the Broncos are one of three teams in the Mountain Division that have a 5-2 Conference record, while the Aztecs would miss out on the Championship Game if they lose and the Fresno State Bulldogs have won the game they are playing on Thanksgiving Day.

It is a game that could have an impact on the approach of the Aztecs in this Week 13 encounter- if the Bulldogs have been beaten, San Diego State may not want to give too much away to a potential Championship Game opponent, but a Fresno State win means this is a must win game for the Aztecs too.

For Boise State things are very simple and they have to win this game in a bid to hold off their rivals in the Mountain Division. Next week won't matter if they don't win this game and that should keep the Broncos focused as they look for a fifth win in a row, but they will know how good the San Diego State team are having been beaten just once this season.

The line of scrimmage is going to be dominated by both Defensive Lines in this one and I do think it is going to be very difficult to run the ball against either. All season, the Aztecs Defensive Line have been incredibly stout up front, but the Boise State Broncos Defensive Line have stepped up their own level as the season has progressed and neither Offensive Line has shown they can get the better of a team with the successes each has had on the other side of the ball.

That suggests this is going to be a low-scoring game, but San Diego State have also had issues finding consistency with their passing Offense. It is the Defensive unit that have stepped up and produced this 10-1 record for the Aztecs, and it is going to be a tough day for Lucas Johnson at Quarter Back considering what we have seen from Boise State.

However, there have been one or two signs of wear and tear from the San Diego State Secondary and Hank Bachmeier should be able to have some success against them. The Boise State Quarter Back has been given a little more protection than San Diego State will offer Lucas Johnson and I think that will make the difference on the day as the Boise State Broncos reach another Mountain West Championship Game.

The road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five between these Conference rivals and I do like the fact that the Boise State Broncos have covered in their last five road games.

San Diego State will be motivated by being a home underdog, but I think they have not played as well as they would have liked in recent weeks and the momentum is with Hank Bachmeier to out-duel Lucas Johnson in a game where neither team is going to have a lot of fun running the ball. The Aztecs may also have lost some of their motivation if the Fresno State Bulldogs have been beaten on Thanksgiving Day and I will look for the Broncos to win and cover on the road in this vital Week 13 game.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: The top three teams in the Big Ten East have lost just four games combined this season, but the Big Ten West could have a Divisional winner that has as many as four losses on their own. The Iowa Hawkeyes (9-2) will be looking to prevent that happening, but they will need to head to Lincoln and come away with a win over an underachieving Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-8).

Simply reaching Bowl eligibility has been beyond the Cornhuskers in 2021 and they have yet to surpass the three wins earned in 2020 despite playing three games more this time around. Another loss will be tough to swallow for Head Coach Scott Frost, although it sounds like Nebraska are going to give him another season to try and turn the school around despite overseeing his fourth losing season in succession after taking over as Head Coach.

You have to credit Nebraska for the kind of effort they have put in when losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers over their last two games and especially as those two teams may end up making up the Big Ten Championship Game. They have actually produced more yards than the Badgers in the loss in Week 12, but Adrian Martinez is set to miss out at Quarter Back.

Logan Smothers will be getting the call at Quarter Back and he has limited experience at this level, which does make things a little more difficult for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. It is unlikely that the Offensive Line will be able to get Smothers into third and manageable spots often with the way the Hawkeyes Defensive Line have been playing, but the Iowa Secondary has not looked as strong and so there is an opportunity for the Quarter Back to produce some strong tape that could be key to winning the starting job in 2022.

Ultimately there isn't as much pressure on the Cornhuskers with this a shot to nothing and Logan Smothers has to try and take the field with the same mindset. There are holes for him to exploit in the Secondary, but Smothers is going to have to be careful with his throws against a ball-hawking team that will be looking to set the Hawkeyes up in short field situations.

Iowa may need that as they have continued to struggle Offensively and it has been the main reason they have not been able to exert control of the Big Ten West ahead of the final game of the regular season. A win will shift some considerable pressure onto the Wisconsin Badgers who will be playing on Saturday, but Iowa would be foolish to believe this is going to be anything but an easy game.

The Hawkeyes will also be playing with a Quarter Back that began the season as the backup, but Alex Padilla has performed well enough to keep Spencer Petras on the sideline. The Quarter Back has earned the win in the last two starts, but Iowa have lost the yardage battle in both of those wins and I do think they are vulnerable here.

Iowa's Offensive Line have not really been able to establish the run as they would have liked and the Cornhuskers may play closer to the line of scrimmage to make sure they are forcing the Hawkeyes to beat them with the Alex Padilla arm. While the Cornhuskers Defensive Line have not played as well as they would have liked in recent games, they will feel they can at least force some stops up front and that can give them a chance of avoiding a nine loss season for the first time in over sixty years.

Alex Padilla has at least managed games well enough to give the Hawkeyes a chance to win here and I think that is important even if the team are averaging just 155 passing yards per game in their last three games. Like the Hawkeyes, the Cornhuskers Secondary have given up some big plays in recent games and without the Interceptions to make those stats look better, but you do have to wonder if Padilla has the confidence or the experience to exploit the holes through the air.

Games between these Divisional rivals have unsurprisingly been competitive and I think this one will be no different. The chance to play spoiler should be motivation for the home crowd that does turn up at the Memorial Stadium, and I do think the Cornhuskers have been a little unfortunate to not have a much stronger record.

The spread is a narrow one in favour of Nebraska and the Hawkeyes are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog. As bad as the record is, the Cornhuskers are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last eleven games after a loss and I think they can put in one more big effort which gives them a chance of the narrow win to close out this season and give Scott Frost some momentum to take into the 2022 season, a big one for the Head Coach.

Colorado Buffaloes @ Utah Utes Pick: A place in the Pac-12 Championship Game has been secured by the Utah Utes (8-3) thanks to a 7-1 record in the Conference and they have won four games in a row. They will be favourites to become Conference Champions and Utah may yet match the eleven wins they secured a couple of seasons ago, even if they were not able to win the Conference that season.

Winning the Conference Championship for the first time will make this a very special season for the Utah Utes and they won't want the momentum to slip ahead of the Championship Game. They are big favourites to beat the Colorado Buffaloes (4-7) who have not had a winning season in a full year since 2016.

Colorado finished 4-2 last season in a Covid-hit year for College Football, but an upset on the road will mean they have another 5-7 record in a full season having finished at that mark in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

The Buffaloes will have to be respected having won two of their last three games, while Colorado also covered the spread as a big underdog in their defeat to the Oregon Ducks. However, they are going to be facing a very tough Utah Defensive unit who have picked up their level down the stretch as they look to peak at the Championship Game in Week 14.

Controlling the line of scrimmage has been a huge part of the successes the Utah Utes have put together and I think that will be the key to outcome of this game too. It has been very difficult to run the ball against the Utes Defensive Line and I think the Colorado Offensive unit has not really been playing well enough to think they will have much more consistency than recent Utah opponents have failed to produce.

On the other side of the ball, Colorado have struggled to stop the run themselves and Utah should be able to have their way running the ball as much as they like. That just opens up the passing game against a vulnerable Colorado Secondary and I think that leads to Utah putting together another big Offensive outing against a Pac-12 opponent.

Passing the ball will be a tough challenge for the Buffaloes too and I do think Utah will be able to continue their recent dominance of this opponent having won their last five games against Colorado by an average of just over 22 points per game.

There is a potential for Utah to look ahead to the Championship Game and pull starters if they are in a very strong position in the game, but I also think a final home game should mean the Senior players get a chance to shine. It should lead to a blow out in favour of the Utah Utes as they look to win a first Pac-12 title next week.

Utah have a strong record as the home favourite, while the Buffaloes are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games as the road underdog. I think those trends are extended here and I will look for the Utes to produce a big win on the day.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ NC State Wolfpack Pick: This has been an underwhelming season for the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5) who will be Bowl eligible, but who have fallen well short of pre-season predictions of being favourites to win the AAC Coastal Division. The Tar Heels have only produced a 3-4 record in the Conference, but they will be keen to at least play spoiler for a rival.

The Tar Heels will be heading to Raleigh to take on the NC State Wolfpack (8-3) who can still earn their way into the AAC Championship Game. The home team have to win on Friday and hope the Boston College Eagles can beat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, but the Wolfpack have to concentrate on what they can control and that is making sure they put in a huge effort to beat North Carolina in their final home game.

Sam Howell was considered one of the top Quarter Back prospects in College Football, but he has not really played up to the level that the Tar Heels fans would have been hoping. He was banged up in Week 12 and missed out, but Howell is expected to suit up against the tough Wolfpack Defensive unit and North Carolina are going to need him to be at his best.

In recent games the Tar Heels have been able to run the ball efficiently, but it has not been easy to do that with consistency against the Wolfpack Defensive Line and I do think that is going to be a key to how the underdog will play. If they are not able to run the ball, North Carolina may leave Sam Howell in a difficult position to keep the chains moving, especially dealing with an injury and behind an Offensive Line that has struggled in pass protection.

Being in third and long would be a massive win for the NC State Defensive unit and the Secondary has benefited from the Defensive Line clamping down on the run. They can generate a fierce pass rush and the Wolfpack should be able to rattle Sam Howell and force drives to stall and potentially even flip field position.

Running the ball has been an issue for the Wolfpack, but they may have a little more success in this one. With the passing game producing at a high level and facing a Tar Heels Secondary that has been struggling down the stretch, there could more room for the NC State Offensive Line to exploit up front and I think they will be able to have more Offensive consistency than their rival.

There will be some pass protection issues, but I do think the Wolfpack have been very happy in home surroundings and they can put themselves in a position to cover what is a relatively wide spread for a rivalry game. The Wolfpack should be motivated to earn revenge for a blowout loss to the Tar Heels here two seasons ago, while the chance to earn a Championship Game spot will keep the fans behind the home team.

North Carolina have a 1-4 record against the spread in their last five games as the road underdog, while the NC State Wolfpack have won nine in a row at home and are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the home favourite.

It should be a competitive game, but the Tar Heels have lost by at least a Touchdown margin against the Pittsburgh Panthers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish in recent games. The NC State Wolfpack are a strong team and especially in Raleigh and I think they can win by a similar margin to those two Ranked teams as they then turn their attention to backing the Boston College Eagles.

MY PICKS: Boise State Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Nebraska Cornhuskers - 1 Point @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Utah Utes - 24 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NC State Wolfpack - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boston College Eagles + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Virginia Tech Hokies + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

USC Trojans + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NFL Week 12 Picks 2021 (November 25-29)

The season is moving at a rapid rate and hitting Thanksgiving Day is usually a strong turning point towards the home stretch towards the PlayOffs.

Week 12 is also one in which I am looking to bounce back after three rotten weeks of NFL Picks, but I will add to this thread before the Sunday games.

For now you can read my thoughts on the Thanksgiving Day games to be played.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: Despite some rumours of recent years, the Detroit Lions (0-9-1) are still one of the two teams that have a permanent place playing on Thanksgiving Day and they will once again get the day underway with a game at home. There have been suggestions the NFL may remove the honour that has been given to the Lions and another season in which they are struggling massively does not really do much for those who want to stick with tradition.

The Lions are winless in 2021, but at least they won't be the first team to finish a regular season with a 0-17 record having earned a tie at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

They will be hosting a Divisional rival in Week 12 of the 2021 season with the Chicago Bears (3-7) once again being given the call to head into Mo-Town to take on the Detroit Lions. Two seasons ago, the Bears narrowly won here thanks to a late Touchdown to take the lead and they are favoured to win here despite some difficulties in the preparation.

Injuries are not helping the Bears who have lost Justin Fields at Quarter Back and will also be missing Khalil Mack on the Defensive side of the ball. Even without Mack, the Bears Defensive unit did as much as they could against the Baltimore Ravens, but the Offense struggled yet again and it sounds like Head Coach Matt Nagy will be fired before completing the season.

With those rumours rampant enough that the Head Coach was asked about them, I do wonder if the Bears will be focused even with this game being played on National television on a Holiday. Failing to be ready to compete is going to end with another defeat for the Bears and the season will not be able to end quickly enough, but they do match up well with the Detroit Lions.

Having a veteran at backup Quarter Back will be a big help for the Chicago Bears and Andy Dalton should be able to have a strong outing, even if Allen Robinson is not able to go. The Chicago Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection, but the Lions have generated very little pressure up front in recent games and that should mean Andy Dalton has all of the time he needs to throw against this Secondary.

The Quarter Back should be aided by David Montgomery who scored two Touchdowns against the Detroit Lions earlier this season and who scored the winning Touchdown when these teams met on Thanksgiving Day in 2019. Chicago's Offensive Line may have had some issues in pass protection, but they have opened up some decent running lanes and that should give David Montgomery every chance to rip off some big gains against this struggling Detroit Defensive Line.

Third and manageable spots can only bode well for Andy Dalton and I do think the Bears will have every chance of moving the chains and especially if they know the Head Coach is going to be fired whether they win or lose. That should provide enough motivation for the Bears, rather than a situation where the players want to make sure the Head Coach is thrown under the bus, and I do think a veteran presence at Quarter Back is important for the Chicago Bears after back to back close defeats.

Motivation is the one aspect that raises doubts, but they played well Defensively in the Week 11 defeat to Baltimore and their backup Quarter Back. The Bears could be up against another backup behind Center in this Thanksgiving game too if Jared Goff is not able to go for the Lions, but it may actually not be the worst thing for Chicago if they are facing someone that was banged up enough to miss out playing just a few days ago.

Detroit will be encouraged by the way they have been able to run the ball and I do think they are going to lean on D'Andre Swift who has been able to rip off some big gains on the ground. He had a decent game against the Cleveland Browns despite that team being one that can close on the run, and even the improved performance of the Chicago Defensive Line in recent games may not be enough to clamp down on the Running Back.

Controlling the clock and the field position is going to be hugely important for the Lions and keeping Jared Goff or Tim Boyle in third and manageable spots is vitally important. Like the Bears, the Offensive Line has not been as strong in pass protection as they have in opening up the run, but the Chicago Defensive Line do have the kind of players that can breakthrough the Line and get after the Quarter Back if Detroit need time for their running routes to develop.

It would not be a surprise if a big play from the Chicago Defensive Line makes the difference between the teams on the day and I think the Bears can be backed here.

Detroit are struggling Offensively and, at best, they are going to have a banged up Quarter Back who is going to be facing a pass rush pressure in his face. Both teams should have success running the ball, but the Bears Defensive Line may be the best unit on the field in this one and they can make enough plays to give their team the possessions to win and cover.

The rumours about Matt Nagy have to have an impact on the way this game is played, but the players may already know the Head Coach is gone and losing in front of the nation to a winless team would be embarrassing. That may focus the Bears who won here on Thanksgiving Day two seasons ago and Chicago are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in the series between these NFC North rivals.

There are some terrible trends opposing both teams, but Chicago are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against a team with a losing record and I will look for them to win and cover in the first of three Thanksgiving Day games.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: This may be a non-Conference game, but it is Thanksgiving Day and playing well on this day is going to be a big motivation for the players that are able to take to the field. The Dallas Cowboys (7-3) dropped their Week 11 game at the Kansas City Chiefs, but they still have a healthy lead in the NFC East and look the favourite to win the Division with the other three teams all holding losing records.

That defeat to the Chiefs hurt the Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) who have dropped to the bottom of the AFC West with three losses in a row behind them. There were so many positives when the Raiders were three games above 0.500, but this has been a difficult season for them off the field with Jon Gruden fired over emails he sent before he took over as Head Coach here and Henry Ruggs released and looking like he will be facing multiple years in jail after a car crash that left a victim dead.

It certainly hasn't helped the Raiders concentrate on their Football and the short week means little time to prepare for this game. The Raiders were also beaten here on Thanksgiving Day in 2013 and they are going to have to be a lot better all around if they are going to beat a Dallas team that have been really strong at home.

Dallas hold a 4-1 record at home in 2021, although things are not going as smoothly as Mike McCarthy will have been hoping. Injuries and Covid-19 issues have been a problem for Dallas and they could be without their top two Receivers for this one, while Dan Quinn's Defensive unit have just fallen away from the kind of high standards they were setting earlier this season.

Dak Prescott did not play as well as he would have liked in the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but he has largely been in top form at Quarter Back and I do think the Cowboys can bounce back with Prescott leading the way. I do think he will be looking to lean on his running game a little more in this one with the likes of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb potentially sitting, although Lamb looks to be on the right path to playing in this one despite suffering a concussion in Week 11.

Even then, Dallas will look for their powerful Offensive Line to get back to basics and set the team up Offensively by controlling the clock on the ground. Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard give the Cowboys a strong one-two punch out of the backfield and I think they will pick up from where Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati Bengals left off last week.

For large parts the Las Vegas Defensive unit have played well, but they have not been given a lot of support from the Offensive side of the team. Short fields being given up through turnovers, or too many three and outs has meant the Raiders Defense have spent too much time on the field and eventually worn down in their losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals in their last couple of games.

If the Raiders Defensive Line can make some plays against the run, they will feel they can get too Dak Prescott who may have to rely on Receivers with whom he does not have the same chemistry as those who are absent. It can lead to stalled drives or settling for Field Goals and that should mean the Raiders have a chance to at least keep this close even if they cannot win outright.

The three losses in a row will have dented the confidence of the road team and Derek Carr is not playing at a very good level right now. He is not being helped by the players around him that have been unable to stretch the field as the Raiders would have liked and that has just closed the space around the Receivers that Derek Carr prefers to target, most notably Darren Waller.

Derek Carr can not afford to hold the ball for too long to set routes develop as he faces up to the Dallas Defensive Line that have generated a really effective pass rush in recent games. Micah Parsons is coming into his own and the Raiders could face some pressure if they are left in third and long spots, although Josh Jacobs is set to have one of his better games of the season.

Injury has slowed down Jacobs at Running Back, but he will be operating behind an Offensive Line which has helped the Raiders pick up some solid gains on the ground in terms of yards per carry. Being in large deficits have forced Las Vegas to get away from the run, but Josh Jacobs should be able to move the ball on the ground in the early part of this game and that should ease the pressure on Derek Carr at Quarter Back.

He will still need to make plays, but operating out of third and manageable is a big difference than third and very long and I expect Carr to have a decent game too. The ball hawking Dallas Secondary will have to be respected, but I do think the Raiders can establish the run and that will give them a chance to move the ball with relative consistency.

The Cowboys have played well off a straight up loss and have covered the last four times in that situation, while they have been very good at home and as the home favourite. They are capable of taking a game away with their ability to create turnovers and with an Offensive unit that can pile up some big numbers, but the Raiders have a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five as the road underdog.

Add in the short week which may leave the Cowboys without a couple of key players and I think there is going to be enough from the Las Vegas Raiders to keep this one close even if they are unable to avoid a fourth defeat in a row.

Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The last six weeks have been a difficult time for the Buffalo Bills (6-4) who have lost three of their last five games, including a blowout loss to the Indianapolis Colts last time out. A big game is on deck for the Bills, but they can't overlook this Thanksgiving Day game after losing the lead in the AFC East to the New England Patriots and I do expect to see a focused performance from the road team.

Another team looking to bounce back from recent setbacks is the New Orleans Saints (5-5) who have dropped three games in succession and fallen a little further behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. Those three consecutive losses have also pushed the Saints down the overall standings and the Wild Card berths may be beyond them if they cannot begin to turn things around soon.

New Orleans will be back in action next Thursday Night, but injuries are piling up with Alvin Kamara set to miss out again. Mark Ingram may also be missing for the Saints and they may struggle to get the run going into this game despite the Buffalo Bills giving up a huge amount of yards to Colts Running Back Jonathan Taylor in Week 11.

In the main part, the Buffalo Defensive Line have been pretty good at clamping down on the run and I do think the absence of Alvin Kamara hurts the New Orleans Saints. Sean McDermott is a solid Head Coach and even in the short week I imagine he is going to be looking for the Buffalo Bills to force Trevor Siemian to beat them through the air.

The backup Quarter Back has been well protected, but Trevor Siemian has had difficulty in finding consistency throwing the ball down the field with the Saints continuing to miss the presence of Michael Thomas. New Orleans have had some good performances from the Receivers that are available, but they are inconsistent performers and this Buffalo Secondary should be capable of making enough plays to ensure their team are in a position to bounce back from the embarrassing loss to the Colts.

If the Bills can set up some shorter fields for their Offensive unit, I do think they are going to be capable of pulling clear and covering this spread. They are a big road favourite and the public look to be behind Buffalo, which is never a great position to want to be in, but the Bills should be capable of showing they are much better than their performance in Week 11 and try and build some momentum before the Week 13 meeting with the New England Patriots.

Josh Allen did not play well and has admitted that he cannot continue to be as guilty in hurting his team with turnovers as he has been. The Quarter Back has not played with the consistency he produced last season, but Josh Allen can be as dangerous with his legs as he can be with his arm and I also think the Dome conditions in New Orleans will suit this entire Buffalo Offensive unit down to the ground.

The Buffalo Offensive Line has been able to make plays on the ground, but it looks like being a much tougher task against the New Orleans Defensive Line. However, Philadelphia were able to make some really strong gains with their rushing Offense in Week 11 and I do think Buffalo have been able to run the ball well enough to at least get in front of the chains and open up the playbook for Josh Allen.

There are some solid Receiving options in the Buffalo rotation and getting in front of the chains will give Josh Allen a chance of making sure he is hitting the likes of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox down the field. New Orleans are a talented team, but they are one that can give up some significant plays through the air and I do think Josh Allen can out-duel Trevor Siemian in leading his team to an important win to try and get back on track.

New Orleans will hope their Defensive Line can clamp down on the run and put them in a position to unleash the pass rush towards Josh Allen. Mistakes have occurred when Allen has felt pressure or been forced to try and do too much, and that may be the best way for the Saints to keep this close.

However, they are not the same team with Trevor Siemian at Quarter Back and he is just as likely to make an errant throw or two that gives the Bills a chance to pull clear and cover this spread.

Buffalo are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four following a loss, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five following a blowout loss at home. The Bills are also 7-3 against the spread in their last ten road games and I think they will really enjoy the conditions indoors compared with playing in the outdoors.

Sean Payton has led New Orleans to an 8-2 record against the spread in their last ten as the home underdog, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five off a loss. That one loss against the spread in that time occurred in Week 11 and I think the Buffalo Bills can find a way to win this one by at least a Touchdown and then take the extra time to prepare for a big game with the New England Patriots.

I expect the Bills to show off their power behind both the Offensive and Defensive unit in this one and I will look for them to cover on the road.

Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: We may be past the halfway point of the regular season, but even being two games below 0.500 has not dented the ambitions of the Atlanta Falcons (4-6). Teams in the NFC have struggled for consistency and there is still every chance that the Falcons can right their wobbling ship and get back into contention for Wild Card spots in the Conference.

That should keep them focused after back to back embarrassing losses to the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots, while the Atlanta Falcons have had a little more time to prepare for this Week 12 game. They do have a very big game coming up against Divisional rivals the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Falcons have to win this game to move back alongside the likes of the New Orleans Saints in the Conference.

As poor as the last couple of outings have been for the Atlanta Falcons, they are facing the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) who have lost two in a row and who look like they have are having some real struggles from an Offensive point of view. They did upset the Buffalo Bills in a Defensive encounter, but the Jaguars have been hit hard by injuries on the Offensive side of the ball and I think that may show up here.

Much depends on James Robinson and whether he can establish the run, but that has not been something that has been very easy to do against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons Defensive Line have stepped up their level of play and they did not play badly on this side of the ball in the blow out loss to the New England Patriots.

Trevor Lawrence should have some spaces to exploit in the Secondary, but he has not really played as well as the Jaguars would have liked in recent weeks. He has not been helped by the lack of top Receiving options and injuries have hurt the Jaguars in the passing game and I do think Trevor Lawrence is still a work in progress, which should give the Atlanta Falcons an opportunity to get back to winning ways.

A struggling passing game has been a major problem for the Atlanta Falcons as Matt Ryan has been given very little time by his Offensive Line and the absence of Calvin Ridley has been a blow for the team. It doesn't help that the Falcons have struggled to open up running lanes and left Ryan in third and long spots, but there have also been suggestions that the Falcons have been predictable with their play.

You have to think the extra preparation time will allow the Falcons to put some creases into their Offensive output, while Cordarrelle Patterson should be able to play to give Matt Ryan a solid safety valve to rely upon. His return should also mean Atlanta have a little more success running the ball and it should be key to the outcome of the game with Ryan likely to have a bounce back game with extra preparation time to get the Atlanta Falcons back on track.

They are not an easy team to trust, but the Falcons are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen games against a team with a losing record and I think they can win on the road at a struggling Jacksonville team.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: All four teams in the AFC North have a winning record and all will believe they can earn a Wild Card spot in the Conference at the very least. The Division is up for grabs over the coming weeks and so every one of the Divisional games remaining is going to be very important and games that will mean more than most.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) have failed to win either of their last two games and that has seen them fall off the pace being set, while the Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) returned from their Bye Week and ended a run of back to back losses. They were big winners over the Las Vegas Raiders to get back on track and the Bengals already hold a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers this season.

Earning another won't be easy, but they look like they could match up well with the Steelers who have been struggling on both sides of the ball. Some of the Defensive injuries have not helped Pittsburgh, but they could be back at full strength on that side of the ball ahead of this game and that is very important for them.

The Defensive Line have just had some issues stopping the run and I do think Joe Mixon is going to show off some of the talent that had him compared with Le'Veon Bell when the latter was with the Steelers. Joe Mixon should be able to keep the Bengals in front of the chains in this one and that should make things a little easier for Joe Burrow.

The Quarter Back has the talent and the supporting cast to expose some of the Pittsburgh issues in the Secondary, but running the ball means Joe Burrow will not have to hold onto the ball for too long. That is all important to keep the Pittsburgh pass rush from getting on top of him and it should mean Cincinnati are in a position to keep the ball moving and hurt a Steelers Defensive unit that has given up plenty of yards in their loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11.

It might not need to be a game in which the Bengals need to score too many points though and that is because the Steelers are still having issues with their own Offensive play. Ben Roethlisberger has not looked like himself and I am not sure he will be playing with Pittsburgh in 2022, while the Steelers Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection as well as run blocking.

Big Ben did have some successes throwing the ball last week, but he will be put under pressure by the Bengals pass rush and I think that is going to be a key to the outcome of this Divisional game.

The Bengals Secondary have been hurt by some big plays in recent games, but Pittsburgh have been guilty of throwing the ball in front of the Defensive units they have been facing and I think the Cincinnati team can beat Pittsburgh for a second time this season.

However, I am not sure the Bengals will blow the Steelers away and it has to be remembered that they earned fewer yards than Pittsburgh in the road win earlier this season. Beating the same Divisional opponent twice in a year is very difficult and I do think the Steelers can make enough plays on both sides of the ball to at least keep this one relatively close.

Cincinnati are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the home favourite, while Pittsburgh are 19-7-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven as the road underdog.

The Steelers have a strong record in Cincinnati too and I think getting more than a Field Goal start with a team that will have Defensive reinforcements should be enough on the spread.

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Two teams from opposing Conferences will meet over Thanksgiving Weekend with every belief that they can earn a PlayOff spot at the end of this season. It may be surprising when note both have losing records, but the Carolina Panthers (5-6) and Miami Dolphins (4-7) will be looking to build some momentum before entering late Bye Weeks.

The Panthers were beaten by the Washington Football Team in Week 11 in Cam Newton's first start at Quarter Back having returned to the team that Drafted him. He has taken over from Sam Darnold as the starter, but that loss also means Carolina have lost the last nine games in which Cam Newton has started at Quarter Back.

This is a chance to end that run, but they are facing a Miami Dolphins team that have won back to back games and who look like they might have the push that will take them back into PlayOff contention. Games coming up give the Dolphins the chance to do that, but this looks like it could be a really difficult match up for them.

While the Carolina Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run of late, the Miami Dolphins have not really been able to open many holes for Myles Gaskin and even the performance against the New York Jets looks like being an exception to the rule. The Miami Offensive Line have been struggling in all aspects of their play for some time and I am not sure they are going to be able to exploit the issues the Panthers have had and they do not match up well with their opponent.

Tua Tagovailoa has been playing well over the last couple of games at Quarter Back, but he will be throwing into a strong Carolina Secondary. While I expect him to make some good throws, Tagovailoa is also operating behind an Offensive Line which has not played well in pass protection and who will be facing a pretty solid Carolina pass rush.

I expect those pass rushers to give Tua Tagovailoa some issues when it comes to waiting for his Receivers to get down the field and it is a key part of the reason I feel the Carolina Panthers will win this game on the road.

The Panthers do match up well with the Dolphins on the other side of the ball too and the return of Christian McCaffrey is very important for Carolina. For much of the season, Miami have struggled to stop the run and I do think McCaffrey and Cam Newton can use their legs to keep the Panthers in front of the chains and that should make it possible for Carolina to move the ball down the field and score the points they need to win here.

Cam Newton will have to be aware of the strength of the Miami Secondary, but he should have time to make his throws with the way his Offensive Line have been playing. An ability to scramble with the ball also helps and I think the Panthers can get the better of this non-Conference opponent.

Carolina are 10-2 against the spread in their last twelve road games and can put in a full effort knowing they will be entering their Bye Week following this game.

Brian Flores has Coached Miami well and his team are always in games even when set as the underdog, especially at home, but I do think this is not a good match up for the Dolphins on either side of the ball. I think the Carolina pass rush may be the key factor in the outcome of the game and I think they can rattle Tua Tagovailoa, while the Panthers are expected to control the clock with their rushing Offense and that can lead to a win for the road favourite here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Reaching the PlayOffs is the bare minimum that both of these teams will have been expecting of themselves before the season began, but only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) are playing up to the level they would have been hoping. They snapped a two game losing run with a win over the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, although there is still plenty for the Buccaneers to play for as they look to finish with the top Seed in the NFC.

They are going to have to fight for that right through to the final week of the regular season with the way things are looking, but the Buccaneers will have to prove themselves on the road if they are going to earn the top Seed. Tampa Bay have simply not been as good on the road in 2021 and both Bruce Arians and Tom Brady have noted that in recent weeks.

Now they head back out on the road to take on the Indianapolis Colts (6-5) who have moved back above 0.500 thanks to a blow out win over the Buffalo Bills. Even then, the Colts would not hold a PlayOff spot if the season ended now and they are still 2 games behind the injury hit Tennessee Titans in the AFC South having lost both games to their Divisional rival.

Indianapolis blew out the Buffalo Bills thanks to Jonathan Taylor who scored five Touchdowns alone in Week 11 with a dominant performance on the ground the key. The Colts have an Offensive Line that feel they can bully any opponent they face, but it will still be a big challenge for them to impose themselves on the Tampa Bay Defensive Line who have prided themselves on being able to stop the run.

I am not sure they will be able to clamp down on Taylor and the Colts totally, but the Buccaneers may dare Carson Wentz to try and beat them through the air and it is something that could give them the edge in the contest if they can make the Colts rely on the pass. Carson Wentz has not played badly in recent weeks, but he has not been able to put together big passing days, while Wentz is never far away from making a big mistake which can be costly for his team.

The Offensive Line has at least protected Carson Wentz of late, but the Buccaneers Secondary is looking a little healthier and this side of the ball will come down to the line of scrimmage. Both teams will feel they can win there and it will certainly be the area from which Tampa Bay can find a big win if they can find a way to limit the damage Jonathan Taylor is able to do.

So far this season we have yet to see Tampa Bay at their best on the road, but this looks a good chance for Tom Brady and the Offensive unit to have a solid outing. Bruce Arians and the Buccaneers prefer the pass to the run, but I think they will have a reasonable balance in this game which gives the Super Bowl Champions an opportunity to win an important game to match the Green Bay Buccaneers record for the season.

The Colts Defensive Line have allowed some big plays on the ground, but rushing the ball is something the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can move away from. Leonard Fournette has played well when he has been given the ball, but Tom Brady has the Receiving options to expose some of the Indianapolis Secondary who have allowed over 250 passing yards per game in their last three games.

Tampa Bay have really protected Tom Brady well and I think the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can pick up some big gains through the air which will give the Buccaneers every chance of scoring enough points to win this non-Conference game. Rob Gronkowski gives Tom Brady another valuable Receiving option and I think Tampa Bay can finally produce a solid road performance to get into a position to win this game.

The Buccaneers have not covered in their last six as the road favourite, but Indianapolis are 1-6 against the spread as the home underdog.

The Colts are coming in off a big win, but that may be tough to back up with the match up in front of them and I will look for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to have too much Offensive firepower for Indianapolis to stick with.

It feels like the sharps are behind the road team here and I want to be on their side and against the public who are sticking with the home underdog.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: Joe Judge might be given some time to turn things around for the New York Giants (3-7), but the Head Coach has heard the frustrations of the fans. That is based around some of the Offensive play-calling that Jason Garrett had been offering and the former Dallas Cowboys Head Coach has been relieved of his role as Offensive Co-Ordinator at the Giants.

The fans will be arriving for this Divisional game hoping to see some improvement from the Giants on that side of the ball, even though they are playing on a short week having been blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. The Giants are still in contention for a Wild Card spot if they can turn their form around and that will need to begin here against their NFC East rivals.

The Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) look to be rolling with three wins from four games and they will be getting excited when seeing how the Dallas Cowboys are playing at the moment. A win for the Eagles will have the fans believing they can push for a Wild Card spot in the NFC at the very least and they are playing with some real confidence at the moment.

Both of these teams will actually look to attack the other in very similar ways- the Offensive Lines have been playing really well and helping the Eagles and the Giants establish the run. Both are going up against Defensive Lines that have given up some big plays on the ground so you have to imagine the likes of Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard and Saquon Barkley all to have big games.

Running the ball should open things up for the two Quarter Backs too and both Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones are going to be throwing into a Secondary which has struggled to make plays. Out of the two, I think Jones is the more confident passer and he certainly has some big time Receiving weapons compared with Hurts and the Eagles, but this does feel like a game in which both teams will move the ball and it could easily come down to which of the two teams has the ball last to determine a winner.

Daniel Jones has struggled at times with the pass protection that has been offered to him, but he may benefit from the fact that the Eagles have not been able to generate much of a pass rush of late. With Barkley likely to be able to establish the run, I think Jones will have a bit more time to throw the ball down the field, while losing Jason Garrett's vanilla play-calling can only benefit the Quarter Back.

I think that is important for the New York Giants and they can certainly make enough plays to make use of the amount of points that are being given to them. Stopping the Philadelphia Eagles will not be easy considering the form they have been showing of late, but a close, competitive game means getting more than a key number of points is crucial.

Games between these NFC East rivals do tend to be competitive and that is underlined by the fact that the underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series.

The Giants are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six against Divisional opponents.

This feels like it will be a game that comes down to the final touches and I will look for the New York Giants to keep this close with their ability to match up well with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: None of the teams in the AFC West have a losing record and some of that has to be down to the way each have been performing against opponents from the NFC East. It does mean that every Divisional game increases in importance and especially as we get into Week 12 of the regular season and with all four teams chasing a Divisional crown as well as a potential Wild Card spot in the PlayOff.

The Denver Broncos (5-5) had won two in a row, but they were beaten by the Philadelphia Eagles last time out and that has dropped them back into 0.500 for the season. They are hosting the Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) who had lost three of their previous four games, but rallied late in their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and they are half a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs at the top of the Division.

The AFC is tightly bunched up and so it is very important to try and build some momentum as we finish up the November schedule and get into the home run towards the post-season. There is an extra game on the regular season schedule in 2021, but that is not going to have a major impact on the focus of teams and both the Broncos and Chargers will be desperate to post a win on Sunday.

It is the Los Angeles Chargers who will enter the game as a narrow favourite and I certainly think they are playing well enough to get the better of the Denver Broncos who have a losing record when facing AFC opponents. Beating up on the NFC has proved to be the key for the Broncos, but Teddy Bridgewater and company are not playing with consistency and Vic Fangio has to be feeling the Head Coach seat warming up underneath him.

Teddy Bridgewater is going to be operating behind a banged up Offensive Line and it has not been as easy running the ball against the Chargers Defensive Line in recent games as it has been for much of the season. That may see the Los Angeles Chargers looking to clamp down up front and force Bridgewater to find the time to try and beat them down the field, but that will be an issue behind this Offensive Line if the Chargers continue to generate a solid pass rush.

The veteran Quarter Back has largely avoided mistakes, but the Broncos continue to struggle without a consistent player in this position since Peyton Manning retired. Rumours suggest they will get a massive upgrade in the spot next season, but for now the Broncos may have issues moving the ball with any consistency and that should give Justin Herbert and the Chargers every chance of winning this Divisional game on the road.

Unlike the Chargers Defensive Line, Denver have begun to wear down up front and I do think the road team will be able to move the ball on the ground to keep Justin Herbert in third and manageable spots. Austin Ekeler is as big a threat catching the ball out of the backfield and taking short passes a considerable distance down the field, and I do think that helps the Quarter Back who has some big time Receiving options to target when he drops back to throw down the field.

Being able to establish the run either on the ground or with short passes should mean Herbert does not need to hold the ball for too long. That should also calm the Denver pass rush and it should open up the passing lanes for Mike Williams and Keenan Allen who can win their battles on the outside against the Defensive Backs.

The Chargers do not have the best recent record at Mile High, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five on the road as the favourite. They have also covered in their last five against teams from the same Division, although the Broncos will be strong coming out of the Bye and that has to be respected.

Denver have not played well against the AFC though and he has failed to cover in any of his last four in that spot and I will look for the Chargers to win and cover here.

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Two of the leading teams in the NFC are meeting in Week 12 and this could have serious ramifications for the Number 1 Seed in January. There is only one team that will be receiving a Bye this season and these two teams will both believe they can earn that spot.

The Los Angeles Rams (7-3) are coming out of a Bye Week after losses in back to back games and Sean McVay has spoken about the benefit of having that time to re-evaluate and get back to basics. Matthew Stafford has been struggling with some issues with his back, but the Quarter Back should be ready to go in this one and he has been practicing all week.

He certainly looks to be in better shape than Aaron Rodgers who will be starting for the Green Bay Packers (8-3) and looking to drag the team back from a disappointing loss to Divisional rivals the Minnesota Vikings. Aaron Rodgers has admitted that his toe is causing plenty of discomfort and the Green Bay Packers are down a couple of Offensive Linemen that could spell trouble against the Los Angeles Rams.

Revenge will be on the mind of the latter after losing in the PlayOff at this Stadium back in January, and they are certainly looking healthier on the Defensive Line which has to benefit the Rams. Aaron Donald was not in peak shape back in January, but he looks strong again and the Los Angeles Rams will be looking to get after Aaron Rodgers who may not be able to scramble away from pressure in the same way he has been able to do in his career.

The Packers will look to ease the pass rush by running the ball, but establishing the run against the Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line is a huge challenge for any team in the NFL. AJ Dillon may have some decent gains, but the banged up Offensive Line is going to be under pressure and I think the Rams can clamp down on the Green Bay Packers.

Los Angeles are all in when it comes to the Super Bowl, and their Defensive unit has played well even in the back to back losses suffered. The key for the Rams is seeing how they can cope without Robert Woods who has been lost for the season, although the Bye Week has given Los Angeles the chance to get Odell Beckham Jr up to speed.

Matthew Stafford's main target will remain Cooper Kuup and the Green Bay Packers may have some difficulty stopping the Rams, especially if they play as they did last week in the defeat to the Minnesota Vikings. The quick passing game can be very dangerous when Stafford is at his best, and it also opens things up on the ground for the Rams.

Injuries in the Secondary could leave Green Bay exposed and I do think the Los Angeles Rams can bounce back with the extra preparation time that will have been afforded to Sean McVay and his Coaching staff.

Revenge is motivation enough, but the Rams are also 10-3-1 against the spread in their last fourteen off a loss. The Packers are another team who regularly bounce from losses with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back, but they are surprisingly 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog and I think this is a good time for the Rams to be visiting town.

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Football Team Pick: When the Monday Night Football selections were made back in April, the feeling would have been that this would be an important game in Week 12 of the regular season. Both the Washington Football Team (4-6) and the Seattle Seahawks (3-7) are used to playing Football in January, but the season has been a difficult one for both.

However, there is an expanded PlayOff this season and that means a team that finishes 8-9 will have a chance of earning a spot in the post-season come January. The pressure is on both of these teams though with their losing records and that makes it a very important Monday Night Football game for both Washington and Seattle.

Injuries have not really helped either team and both have become used to playing second string Quarter Backs this season. At least the Seahawks have Russell Wilson back in the line up, but the veteran has not looked himself and there are rumours that he is no longer happy playing with the Seahawks and under Pete Carroll as Head Coach.

The Seahawks have lost back to back games, while the Washington Football team have won back to back games and the momentum is with the home team. Travelling across the country is not ideal for Seattle who have other players that have been banged up, but Russell Wilson has to be feeling a little better with a couple of games under his belt and I do think the Quarter Back will have a much better outing than what we have seen from him since his return from an injury.

Chris Carson is out, but Alex Collins is capable of running the ball and I do think he can help Seattle establish the run in this one. With injuries on the Washington Defensive Line, I do think establishing the run will just offer Russell Wilson a touch more time to find the likes of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf down the field.

He has not been at his best, but Russell Wilson is not someone that has been used to Quarter Backing teams that are on the brink of losing three games in a row.

Seattle will have some drives stalling on current form, but the Defensive unit have at least stepped up their play and that is important in keeping the Seattle Seahawks in games. They have really found a way to clamp down on the run in recent games and I do think they can get the better of the Washington Offensive Line which has not been able to open too many big holes up front.

Antonio Gibson will make some plays, but the Seahawks can at least force the Football Team to throw the ball from third and long spots and that is an issue for the home team considering the pass protection breakdowns they have had in recent weeks. Taylor Heinicke has shown he is a capable backup, but this is a Quarter Back that has struggled for consistency throwing the ball and I am not sure being in third and long is the best spot for him to try and expose the Seattle Secondary.

I expect Taylor Heinicke to have some success, especially as Seattle have struggled to generate a strong pass rush, but moving the ball from obvious passing down and distance is never easy.

I do worry about the spot with Seattle possibly playing spoiler for rivals San Francisco next week, while the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson rumours are of concern too. It may see the Seahawks self-combust over the remainder of the 2021 season, but they can still get back into PlayOff contention with a win here and next week and I think Wilson will want to show he is far from done after back to back defeats.

Seattle have a strong record against the spread coming off a straight up loss, while they have a much stronger record on Monday Night Football than the Washington Football Team. This is effectively a pick 'em game and I think the run will be more effective for Seattle that can lead them to an important victory on the day.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Las Vegas Raiders + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carolina Panthers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Los Angeles Chargers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)