We are about halfway through the WTA Finals and the Groups are already beginning to be rounded out.
One Semi Finalist has been confirmed after Elena Rybakina beat Iga Swiatek and that means the World Number 2 has another big match coming up against Amanda Anisimova to determine who will finish second in the section.
By the end of the Tuesday, we may have a second Semi Finalist confirmed and there are two good looking matches on deck- this is also the week when the ATP Finals lineup will be concluded as the last remaining place is up for grabs.
Lorenzo Musetti needs to win the tournament in Metz to play in the ATP Finals in Turin and that is a big ambition for the Italian, although the edge has to be with Felix Auger-Aliassime after his run to the Paris Masters Final.
Coco Gauff - 2.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: After opening losses, the pressure is on Coco Gauff and Jasmine Paolini to earn the victory in the second match to keep themselves in contention for a place in the Semi Final.
There will have been real disappointment in the way each of the players performed in the defeats to Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka. However, the format of the end of year Championship does mean that both Gauff and Paolini have a pretty quick opportunity to earn some redemption and the tournament is far from over after a single defeat.
Winning a set in her opening defeat will have given Coco Gauff something to hold onto, but the World Number 3 will be the first to admit that she made far too many mistakes in her loss to Jessica Pegula. The Double Faults have been a year long issue for the 21 year old and the whole of her game collapsed around the unforced errors that she was handing out at an alarming rate.
Most will expect Coco Gauff to be better in this second match and especially as she won the big title in Wuhan after the relatively disappointing US Open.
Jasmine Paolini looked out of sorts in her opening Singles loss and she has since been beaten in the Doubles event too.
The Italian spoke to the media and seemed in positive mood, even if the body language was very much unlike her in the opening defeat to the World Number 1.
She did reach the Semi Final in the last two hard court events played, which will give Jasmine Paolini some real belief to take into this match, but one of those runs was ended at the hands of Coco Gauff. That defeat has snapped a run of three straight wins over the higher Ranked player, and also means Gauff has won three of the four hard court meetings between the two.
Coco Gauff gave up 16 Double Faults in her loss to Paolini in Cincinnati, but reduced that number by more than half in the Semi Final win in Wuhan. The serve is a work in progress and it does feel like Coco Gauff is never that far away from losing confidence in her delivery, especially that second delivery, which is always going to be concerning for her and her supporters.
However, Coco Gauff did enjoy a really successful Asian swing and that will have given her belief, while she won the title here in Riyadh last year.
This may give her the edge in this important match, especially if Jasmine Paolini is still not quite up at her very best level. The head to head against the Italian on the hard courts cannot be dismissed and the World Number 3 may just do enough to get over this line set.
Jessica Pegula + 4.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: There is a real rivalry between Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka and they have faced off in some huge matches on the hard courts over the last couple of years.
In 2024 they met in the US Open Final and in September they met in the Semi Final at the same tournament with both matches being won by Aryna Sabalenka in competitive outings.
Most recently Jessica Pegula snapped Sabalenka's long dominant run in Wuhan by coming from a set and a break down to win that Semi Final and you do wonder if that will give the American confidence with the window to win a Grand Slam title closing.
A win over Coco Gauff has put Jessica Pegula in a good position in the Group, but it was a battling match and the World Number 5 will need to recover in what is going to be another tough contest.
Aryna Sabalenka had a much more routine win in the opening Group match and the World Number 1 is always full of belief in her ability to beat any opponent across the net. Her head to head with Jessica Pegula will give the Belarusian plenty of confidence, even if she was beaten most recently.
The expectation is that Aryna Sabalenka will win this Group match, but she may have to serve better than she did on Sunday if she is going to cover this handicap line.
There is always a chance that you could run into the World Number 1 on a day she produces her very best level, but Jessica Pegula has enjoyed the fight against Aryna Sabalenka. Even winning a set in a losing effort may keep Pegula in a strong spot to Qualify for the Semi Final in Riyadh and she is capable of doing that and avoiding a really comfortable defeat in this second round of Group matches.
MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jessica Pegula + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
WTA Finals: 2-4, - 2.13 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.50% Yield)
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