A couple of tie-breakers needed to go in favour of the two selections made on Sunday at the opening of the ATP Finals, and that was key to seeing both return as winners.
It is a much more positive start to the ATP Finals compared with the WTA Finals last week in Riyadh, but that tournament ended with some strong results to produce a profit and so there is still plenty of work to do before the end of the 2025 season.
Two more matches are set to be played on Monday as both Groups conclude the opening round robin in Turin.
The selections from the two Singles matches can be read below.
Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: Playing at the ATP Finals is a big achievement for any player, but there was a clear motivation for Lorenzo Musetti to make his debut at the tournament being hosted in his home country.
That meant taking in a tournament in Athens last week where Lorenzo Musetti had to win the title- he reached the Final on Saturday, but was beaten by Novak Djokovic, although it was later announced that the Serb would not take part in the ATP Finals and so Musetti comes into the draw.
He would have preferred a bit more rest after playing an almost three hour Final on Saturday and being scheduled in the Day Session at the ATP Finals in Turin on Monday. Motivation is high and that will help Lorenzo Musetti in finding some energy, but it looks a tough spot for him, even when beginning this tournament facing an opponent he has beaten in each of the last three meetings on the Tour.
The last of those was at the Paris Olympics and that was on a clay court, but Lorenzo Musetti also holds a big win over Taylor Fritz in the Wimbledon Quarter Final in 2024 and that will give him confidence even if he has not faced the American over the last sixteen months.
The sole previous hard court meeting between the players was won by Taylor Fritz who reached the Final in Tokyo since the US Open, but who had some disappointing tournaments in Shanghai, Basel and Paris. The last two tournaments were played on indoor hard courts, but Taylor Fritz has reached the Semi Final and the Final in his two previous appearances in the ATP Finals and only Jannik Sinner got the better of Fritz in the tournament last year.
It does feel that the Taylor Fritz serve is going to be key to the outcome of this opening Group match.
Lorenzo Musetti has had a big year and did reach a peak career World Ranking back in June, but he is just 1-6 against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season. His numbers have suggested he has been struggling to compete with the very best players on the Tour and Lorenzo Musetti just put in a huge week of tennis to merely make it to Turin, which could leave him short of the energy needed in this opening outing.
Improving the return continues to be the challenge for Taylor Fritz if he is going to take the next step and win a Grand Slam title, but he should find a way to get into the Musetti return games in this match. That should give the World Number 4 an opportunity to create the Break Points to put himself into a position to won and cover the handicap line set on Monday and Taylor Fritz looks more likely to do that and snap his three match losing run to this opponent.
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: If he serves as he did in the Paris Masters Final, Felix Auger-Aliassime is going to make short work of covering this handicap mark.
However, all of the pressure is on his shoulders having lost each of the three hard court matches played against Jannik Sinner this season and now facing to face the defending Champion in a tournament where he is going to be getting some huge support from the stands.
Felix Auger-Aliassime did give Sinner a scare in the US Open Semi Final but the World Number 2 was perhaps not fully healthy in that match. And even then, Jannik Sinner was able to recover from an awkward second set to come through in four sets and he was pretty comfortable in the win over the Canadian in Paris a little over a week ago.
In two of the three hard court matches played over the last three months, Felix Auger-Aliassime has not been able to do much against the Jannik Sinner serve. This has kept the scoreboard pressure building on him and it was only some wasted chances in the Paris Masters that prevented the Italian from pulling away in that Final.
Jannik Sinner took the first Break Point on that day, but he was not able to take any of the next five played across two games and that just allowed Felix Auger-Aliassime to build some rhythm and confidence.
There is no doubt that the Auger-Aliassime serve is a major weapon, but his hold percentage has dipped to below 80% when only considering matches against top five Ranked opponents on this surface in 2025. His return remains erratic to say the least and that is also very notable when Felix Auger-Aliassime has gone up against the biggest names on the Tour.
As long as Jannik Sinner continues to serve at his current level, he will be relatively comfortable protecting this shot and that should allow him to play with some aggression on the return.
Felix Auger-Aliassime will be asked to serve at his absolute best level to stick with the World Number 2 and we have seen him fall away a couple of times, which makes the effort in Paris feel like the exception to the norm.
It is a big spread, and one that could become awkward very early in this Group match, but Jannik Sinner looks capable of covering and he will want to lay down an early marker to rival Carlos Alcaraz, who had a solid win on Sunday in his own opening match.
MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
ATP Finals: 2-0, + 1.72 Units (2 Units Staked, + 86% Yield)
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