Time has been a factor this week and that means that some of the additional NFL Picks will have to be placed in this thread on Sunday.
A longer thread should be put together for Week 12, but at least in this one you can read my thoughts on the selections being made.
It is the time of the season when some momentum is needed with the Picks and the last three all returned winners in Week 10 to make sure we avoided a really bad return. Hopefully that can be carried into this one and the following selections can produce a lot more winners than losers.
Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Pick: The Coaching staff may privately feel that their time in charge of the Miami Dolphins (3-7) is going to come to a conclusion at the end of the 2025 season, while there are questions around Quarter Back Tua Tagovailoa. Despite that, and with some trades of key players, those remaining continue to be very focused and the upset win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 11 will have everyone feeling good.
This week the Miami Dolphins are playing the Washington Commanders (3-7) out in the Spanish capital in the latest of the international series games that the NFL continue to expand.
There were some concerns about what this season would look like for Miami before the first kick off, but the Washington season has been far below expectations. Injuries have been a real issue, but the Commanders reached the NFC Championship Game last season and they are unlikely to even make the Playoffs right now.
Jayden Daniels has suffered a couple of different injuries, but the one suffered most recently could see him miss the rest of the season if the Washington Commanders are not able to stay in touch with those chasing post-season spots.
Five straight losses have been suffered and the Washington Commanders have fallen apart Defensively in the last couple of games.
An inability to stop the run has made things very difficult for the Commanders and the Defensive Line are set for another significant challenge if the Miami Dolphins are able to pick up from where they left off in the win over the Bills. De'Von Achane had a big game in the win over the Bills and he should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground and keep the Dolphins in third and short situations around the field.
He is also going to be a factor in the passing game and Tua Tagovailoa is likely going to have plenty of time to throw the ball in this one.
The Quarter Back will be facing a Secondary that has been banged up and Washington will struggle to contain this Miami team, which is going to put some real pressure on the team when they have the ball.
Without the athleticism of Jayden Daniels and his play-making skills, the Washington Commanders have struggled to run the ball with any consistency in recent games. The Offensive Line is not going to have things as easy they may have done several weeks ago to turn things around considering they are facing a Miami Defensive Line which has just found the right solutions to clamp down on the run.
Marcus Mariota is 32 years old now, but he is still capable of exploiting any running lanes that left in front of him, although the Commanders cannot afford to lose another Quarter Back and so will not ask him to do that too often.
His protection has not really been as strong as Mariota would have liked and the Commanders are banged up on this side of the ball, which means a lack of consistency.
This is not a Miami Secondary with some of the stars of recent years, but they have been competing pretty well and that should give the Dolphins the edge.
Backing up the big win over Buffalo is never going to be easy, especially for what has been a bad team, but recent performances have offered encouragement. With the Defensive unit still playing with some intensity, Miami can do enough to beat the Washington Commanders in Madrid and they can do it behind dominance at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans Pick: The announcement that CJ Stroud is not going to be able to suit up for the Houston Texans (4-5) will be a disappointment, but you have to give Davis Mills so much credit for the performance produced in the Week 10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
He has been a backup over the last couple of years, but Mills showed he can be very solid in that spot having helped the team fight back and win the game after falling behind by a couple of scores.
That has pushed the Houston Texans back to close to 0.500 for the season and they remain in touch with the teams chasing a Playoff spot. The chances of catching the Indianapolis Colts are not lost with the Houston Texans due to play the AFC South leaders twice before the end of the regular season, but they cannot afford to overlook the Tennessee Titans (1-8).
Plenty of changes will be coming up in the off-season, but the Titans are dangerous as hosts and coming out of a Bye Week.
Losing four games in a row is obviously not a good thing, but the real disappointment has been the lack of competitiveness the Titans have been able to produce in those defeats. Once again they could be finishing with a top Draft Pick, although this time they are likely to trade out of the position and try and earn a quicker rebuild around Cam Ward at Quarter Back.
You do have to feel so sorry for Cam Ward who is in a very difficult spot.
The talent around him is not good enough if the upper management are being honest and it has meant asking far too much out of a rookie Quarter Back.
They failed to score in the first meeting with the Houston Texans and this is going to be another challenging afternoon for Cam Ward and the Titans Offensive unit. Coming out of a Bye means having had more preparation time to help out, but the Titans have found it very difficult to run the ball and that has heaped the pressure on Ward.
Adding to that is the inability of the Titans Offensive Line to keep the pass rush from out of the backfield and the Houston Texans are likely going to be able to rattle Cam Ward when he is in obvious passing situations. Even with time, the Quarter Back will be tested having to throw into this Houston Secondary considering the lack of playmakers on the team and it could be another day where Tennessee have their issues moving the ball with any kind of consistency.
While the Houston Offensive Line have not exactly been opening up big running lanes in recent games, they should still be good enough to keep the team in third and manageable spots on the field.
Aiding that is the fact that the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to stop teams from pounding the rock against them and this should make the life of Davis Mills very comfortable.
One thing the Titans do do well is rushing the passer, but that becomes all the tougher when a team is playing in third and short spots and Davis Mills should be able to expose a Secondary that has struggled.
As long as the backup Quarter Back avoids turning the ball over, Houston can win this one and cover the spread.
They are due to play on Thursday Night Football in Week 12, but the Texans cannot afford to look past a Divisional opponent after the start made this season and that should keep Houston motivated.
In recent years the Titans have a solid record against the spread when coming out of a Bye Week, but they are now 0-13 against the spread when facing a fellow AFC team that has a losing record and in a game where Tennessee are given more than 3 points.
This could play out here as Houston chase a third straight win over this AFC South rival.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: These two teams are amongst the leading contenders to be playing in the Super Bowl next February and both are going to be wanting to bounce back from disappointing defeats.
It may be a non-Conference game, but it is an important one for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and Buffalo Bills (6-3) who share the same record, but that leaves them in different places as far as the standings go.
The Bills are suddenly finding the New England Patriots pulling clear in the AFC East with their 9-2 record, but the Bills will have to travel to Foxboro before the season is concluded. After losing at home, that is a big game for the Buffalo Bills, but they cannot afford to look past a dangerous opponent and make sure they remain touch with the Patriots.
Buffalo also have to avoid thinking ahead to the Thursday Night Football game on deck, but the loss to the Miami Dolphins will have refocused the team.
In Week 11 they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have a lead in the NFC South and they remain the team to beat in the Division.
Injuries are having an impact, but Baker Mayfield has really found a good home as Quarter Back of the Buccaneers and he will be confident he can help the team bounce back after losing to New England.
There is a real chance that Baker Mayfield could have a bit more run support in this game- Bucky Irving will not suit up, but the Buccaneers have to be encouraged by seeing how the Dolphins battered Buffalo on the ground in the Week 10 upset. Merely being in front of the chains would be a big success for the team and really give the Quarter Back an opportunity to keep the chains moving without having to settle and wait for routes to develop down the field out of third and long spots.
He needs that with the likes of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans missing from the passing game, although the competitor in Baker Mayfield will find a way to get things done.
Baker Mayfield will be a little wary of the pass rush that the Buffalo Bills have been generating in recent games and obvious passing situations will be considered a poor outcome for the Buccaneers. Instead they will want to control the clock and make sure Josh Allen, a close friend of Mayfield's, is left to cool down on the sidelines.
Running the ball would be expected to a challenging task for the Bills to take on considering what has been seen from this Tampa Bay Defensive Line this season, but recent games have been disappointing.
You could excuse the performance against the Detroit Lions, but Tampa Bay were bullied by the New England Patriots too and allowed some big runs to be ripped off against them.
James Cook and company should be able to pound the rock with some real success in this one, while Josh Allen is capable of using his legs to move down the field.
The Quarter Back will want a bounce back effort from the whole Offensive unit after the really poor display in losing in Miami last week.
With the Tampa Bay pass rush, the pocket will collapse around Josh Allen, but he can escape that and run down the field, while also being able to have success attacking this Secondary. One of the big criticisms of the Bills upper management is not bringing in a real top Receiver for Josh Allen to target, but they should be able to find enough successes to keep the chains moving in this one and Buffalo can bounce back with a victory.
Head Coach Todd Bowles is very adept at getting his team to perform when set as the road underdog, and that potential distraction by an upcoming Thursday Night Football game for the Buffalo Bills is a concern.
However, Buffalo are looking to bounce back from a loss- Baker Mayfield has been very successful at doing that for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season, but his team is still short of Offensive options and the Line of Scrimmage issues on the Defensive side of the ball leaves them vulnerable here.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Three wins in a row having given the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) momentum as they look to keep the pressure on the Denver Broncos at the top of the AFC West. A lot of credit has to be given to the Chargers for finding a way to winning positions even as the injuries have piled up and they can keep that going when travelling to the East Coast to play in the early Sunday slot.
They are facing the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) who have lost three of the last four games and who will still be wondering how they managed to blow the big lead built up against the Houston Texans.
If the Playoffs begun today, the Jaguars would actually be playing in the post-season, but the momentum is against them and injuries have been hurting the team.
Trevor Lawrence is going to be without Travis Hunter for the foreseeable future, while Brian Thomas Jr remains a doubt. The Jaguars have traded for Jakobi Meyers, but he was supposed to complement what the team had rather than having to step up and learn the playbook very quickly to become the top Receiving option available to the Quarter Back.
In recent games, the Los Angeles Chargers Defensive Line have really begun to step up to clamp down on the run and they can have success against this Jacksonville team.
This is going to be a huge part of the game on this side of the ball- if the Chargers can keep the Jacksonville Jaguars in third and long spots, the Los Angeles pass rush is going to cause havoc going against this Offensive Line. With the Secondary playing at the level they have been in recent games, that pressure up front could lead to mistakes and Jacksonville may struggle to move the ball as effectively and efficiently as they will hope.
The Chargers will also look to lean on the run in order to put Justin Herbert in positive field position and not have this makeshift Offensive Line have to give the Quarter Back time to find Receivers down the field.
Injuries to the first two Running Backs on the depth chart have offered Kimani Vidal an opportunity and it is one that he has largely taken, although this week he will be facing a Jacksonville Defensive Line that have played the run quite well.
The Secondary have not operated at the same level and the Jaguars pass rush has been disappointing in recent games.
They should have success facing this Chargers Offensive Line, but Justin Herbert is showing why he is one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL by keeping the team moving in a positive direction. He has not been afraid to take the big hit for the benefit of the team and there are Receivers on the roster who can make the big plays for Justin Herbert and put the Chargers in a position to win this game.
He will make enough plays in this one to put Los Angeles in a position to remain in touch with the AFC West leaders and they can win here.
One factor that does hold back the enthusiasm for backing the Chargers is the fact they have won road games at Miami and Tennessee without covering, but they perhaps should have in the second of those games.
The Jaguars have shown some positive signs this season, but they were beaten at home by the Seattle Seahawks when set as the home underdog and the Chargers may have more Offensive consistency that gives them the edge in this one.
MY PICKS: Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Chargers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)
Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
2025 Season: 28-27, - 1.64 Units (55 Units Staked, - 2.98% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment