There are two days left at the WTA Finals in Riyadh and four of the eight Singles players have been eliminated.
The final four all have their strengths and this is a good opportunity for someone to lay down a marker ahead of the Australian Open considering the lack of competitive tennis that is likely to be played by the very best players between now and Melbourne in mid-January.
The two Group Winners are favourites in the Semi Final, and they look most likely to come through, but nothing is ever that easy on the WTA Tour and both Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka are going to have to be wary of the challenges that Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova will present.
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The World Number 5 would have gone into her final Group match knowing a win would put her in a good position to reach the Semi Final here in Riyadh. However, Jessica Pegula may also have put herself under some pressure to win in straight sets to take away any drama while watching the other match and credit has to be given to the American for the strong win she put together.
Moving through to the WTA Finals last four as Runner Up means a Semi Final clash against Elena Rybakina who has looked like the player that won the title at Wimbledon back in 2022.
Six months later she reached the Australian Open Final, but you would perhaps be a little disappointed in not seeing Elena Rybakina compete at the business end of more Grand Slams since winning Wimbledon. Most would have anticipated her adding to that title, but she has failed to make the Quarter Final in any of the last five Grand Slams played and some of that has been down to off court issues.
Those look to be clearing up, even if some remain concerned about Rybakina's relationship with Coach Stefano Vukov.
The World Number 6 enjoyed a decent Asian swing to earn her spot in the WTA Finals and Elena Rybakina has won all three Group matches thanks to her immense serving.
Elena Rybakina has won at least 70% of service points played in each of the three matches here in Riyadh and that has put a lot of scoreboard pressure on her opponents. She has only dropped serve twice, which is no surprise considering how dominant Rybakina has been behind her opening delivery, and that has allowed the World Number 6 to play with some aggression on the return.
It is going to be challenging for Jessica Pegula to find her way into the return games, although she will take some heart from the way she returned against Aryna Sabalenka in the Group Stage. She managed to break serve four times against the World Number 1, although Jessica Pegula was kept under immense pressure on her own serve and that is expected to be the case here.
These two players met after the US Open in the Billy Jean King Cup and Elena Rybakina was the much stronger server in a straight sets win over Jessica Pegula.
The last time they met at the WTA Finals was at the end of the 2022 season and it was Pegula who got the better of that one, but you have to give Elena Rybakina the edge on the form produced this week.
Jessica Pegula controlled the match against Jasmine Paolini, but has won less than 60% of service points played against Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka and the likely service disparity between these two Semi Finalists is going to give the lower Ranked player the edge.
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: The initial big breakthrough on the WTA Tour came back in 2019 when Amanda Anisimova was 17 years old and she reached the French Open Semi Final.
At the 2019 Australian Open, Amanda Anisimova upset Aryna Sabalenka and she won the first four meetings between the players and all while being Ranked outside the top 30.
After taking some time away from the Tour to just unburden herself, Amanda Anisimova has returned with real ambitions to fulfil the obvious potential she had shown in her development and early years as a professional. Reaching back to back Grand Slam Finals will give the American something to build upon in 2026 and Amanda Anisimova is playing with confidence having beaten Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek in her last two Group matches here to reach the Semi Final in her maiden appearance at the WTA Finals.
One of the wins on the way to reached the Wimbledon Final was against Aryna Sabalenka, but the World Number 1 earned revenge over Amanda Anisimova by beating her in the US Open Final in September.
Aryna Sabalenka also beat Anisimova in the French Open Fourth Round and she has now won four of the last six matches against the World Number 4.
The Belarusian has won all three matches at the WTA Finals, but it still feels like there is room for improvement in her level of performance.
She has served herself out of some tough situations, but Aryna Sabalenka will want to just get a bit more out of that shot to try and keep herself out of pressurised situations. Completely erasing those against someone like Amanda Anisimova is not likely, but Sabalenka has to take some heart out of the way Elena Rybakina got the better of this opponent in the Group Stage and feel she can at least reach a similar level.
Amanda Anisimova has been improving her serving numbers in each of the matches played in the tournament, which is perhaps partly down to becoming accustomed to the conditions.
However, it is the World Number 1 who has had the superior consistency on the return and that was the case when these two players met in the US Open Final.
There is so much to like about the Amanda Anisimova game and a slight improvement in 2026 will lead to Grand Slam titles on her current trajectory.
She has beaten Sabalenka in a big moment at Wimbledon, but the top Seed has won at two other Grand Slam events and that win over Anisimova in New York City could be repeated here. That was a close match and Aryna Sabalenka had to dig deep when broken after serving for the set, but it was won under indoor conditions and the World Number 1 can move into the Final here with a win and a cover of the handicap mark set.
MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
WTA Finals: 6-5, + 0.21 Units (11 Units Staked, + 1.91% Yield)
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