There have been a couple of really disappointing performances from players who will be expecting to challenge for Grand Slam titles in 2026 and that has led to a couple of surprising names being able to make it through to the last four at the ATP Finals.
Most fans will still be expecting to see the top two players in the world compete for yet another title, but Alex De Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime are going to have something to say about that.
Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This Semi Final was set before the final Group matches were played on Friday, but it is Alex De Minaur who will have been able to earn a day of rest between matches.
After losing his opening two matches in the tournament, Alex De Minaur's hopes of progressing into the Semi Final was hanging by a thread going into Day 5 in Turin. He had no choice but to win in straight sets in his final match, but De Minaur still had to wait and hope Carlos Alcaraz would beat Lorenzo Musetti before knowing he would be tasked with heading out and playing again.
Alex De Minaur has to take encouragement out of the fact that his performances have improved in each of the three matches played- after losing in straight sets to Carlos Alcaraz, De Minaur had a chance to serve out the match against Lorenzo Musetti before losing in three sets and then ultimately beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets to move through the Group.
Serving well is going to be really important against the World Number 2 and that has been something that has been challenging for Alex De Minaur when facing Jannik Sinner in the past.
It has also been the reason Alex De Minaur has lost all twelve matches played against the Italian.
All but one of those defeats have been on the hard courts, including in all three matches in 2025 and Jannik Sinner has won seven of the eight sets played between the players. Two of those wins earned by Jannik Sinner have been since the US Open and there is a massive advantage in favour of the higher Ranked player that is almost impossible to ignore.
Jannik Sinner has won 69% of the points played behind his serve compared with Alex De Minaur's 56% mark... This has led to Sinner holding in 91% of service games played compared with De Minaur doing the same in 63% of his own service games and these are big edges in favour of Jannik Sinner.
He was given a bit of an examination by Ben Shelton in the final Group match, but Jannik Sinner was largely in control and did not have to spend any additional time on the court.
This should all mean that the Italian is ready to reach another Final here in Turin and the World Number 2 may be able to do that in some style.
Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: After losing to Jannik Sinner and looking like he was suffering with some sort of calf injury, Felix Auger-Aliassime has performed really well to win back to back Group matches.
The battling display against Ben Shelton deserves a lot more respect than the win over Alexander Zverev merely because the American pushed Felix Auger-Aliassime really hard. This may have cracked lesser players, but the Canadian has continued producing at key times in the second half of the season and Auger-Aliassime is going to head into 2026 with a lot of confidence.
Everything in this Semi Final is about the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve as he bids to upset the World Number 1.
It has been a big weapon in the wins over Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev, but Felix Auger-Aliassime struggled to impose himself on Jannik Sinner in the opening Group match. He may have learned from that, but Auger-Aliassime has not faced Carlos Alcaraz in sixteen months and the Spaniard is playing at a really solid level himself to secure that position heading into the 2026 season.
Three matches played and three wins on the board has given Carlos Alcaraz momentum as he looks to go forward and win the ATP Finals for the first time to continue to add to his increasing trophy collection.
Despite already being through to the Semi Final, Carlos Alcaraz produced his best performance in the tournament in the win over Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday. That will further the momentum he has built up in the tournament and Alcaraz has to be pretty confident that much of this match will be played on his racquet, even when facing a very good server like Felix Auger-Aliassime.
There are just more ways for Carlos Alcaraz to win the match.
Covering the spread will not be easy and the World Number 1 may need to break serve at least three times to do that, but he has reached that total in all three of the matches played this week. The performance in the win over Taylor Fritz will give Carlos Alcaraz the confidence to deal with the World Number 8 and he has won each of the last four matches between the players.
We have seen Felix Auger-Aliassime produce high quality tennis when he has momentum and built up confidence- he is dangerous here having done that in back to back wins to join Jannik Sinner in the last four, but Carlos Alcaraz is a big challenge for the Canadian and that may show up on the final scoreboard.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
ATP Finals: 7-4, + 1.28 Units (11 Units Staked, + 11.64% Yield)
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