Three of the four Semi Finalists in Turin have been confirmed after Alex De Minaur got the better of the odds to win his match in straight sets and then move through to the last four with just a single win under his belt.
He did need Carlos Alcaraz to beat home hope Lorenzo Musetti, and the Australian will feel like he is playing with 'house money' after losing his opening two matches and still finding a way through to the Semi Final.
Preparation will have begun to face Jannik Sinner, although the World Number 2 has to complete his Group commitments in the Day Session on Day 6 at the tournament.
One more Semi Final spot has yet to be confirmed and that will be fought out between Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Evening Session with the reward being a match against the World Number 1 on Saturday.
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Ben Shelton: Two wins from two matches played means Jannik Sinner has topped this Group and this is a dead rubber for both the top Italian player and Ben Shelton, who has been eliminated after losing the second match in succession.
With that in mind, the organisers have scheduled the contest for the Day Session so Jannik Sinner is able to get plenty of rest before the Semi Final match to be played on Saturday. The chances are that he will be going on in the Evening Session in that Semi Final, especially if the match is against Carlos Alcaraz, and that should allow Jannik Sinner to invest plenty into this match.
He was far from his best in the win over Alexander Zverev, but was still able to come away with a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard. The big points were played really well, especially on his own serve, although Sinner's opponent is going to have some regret about not being able to put in enough aggressive intensity when it mattered the most.
You can be certain that Ben Shelton is not going to take a backwards step in this match, but he has not really been able to compete with Jannik Sinner in their recent meetings and bridging that gap with nothing on the line will be difficult.
Ben Shelton has a big serve, which is always going to make him dangerous and make spreads like this one feel very wide.
However, the American has not really been playing his best tennis since withdrawing at the US Open and Shelton has faced 12 Break Points in his two defeats here in Turin. The performance was better overall against Felix Auger-Aliassime, but Ben Shelton will be well aware that he is facing one of the top return players on the Tour and one who has regularly been able to find a way into his service games.
It was Ben Shelton who won the first ever meeting between these players in Shanghai back in October 2023, but Jannik Sinner has clearly taken offence to that and has won all seventeen sets played against the World Number 5 since then.
This includes winning in straight sets at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, while Jannik Sinner has broken in almost 1/4 return games played against Shelton on the hard courts.
Ben Shelton has thus been under immense pressure and that is only increased by the fact he has broken in 8% of return games played against Jannik Sinner on this surface.
He can come out with 'nothing to lose' but this has been a long season and the impending break may be something of a distraction for the lower Ranked player.
Jannik Sinner should still be locked in and he can clear this handicap mark much as he did when beating Shelton in straight sets at the Paris Masters at the end of October.
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Both men have beaten Ben Shelton and lost in straight sets against Jannik Sinner within this Group and that leaves Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime facing a 'winner takes all' contest against one another.
The Evening Session will be headlined by this Singles match as both players look for a strong end to the 2025 season and the narrow edge may have to be with Alexander Zverev.
He has had successes at the Tour Finals in the past and the conditions are very much to Zverev's liking, while he should be highly motivated to want to get one over on Felix Auger-Aliassime having lost to the Canadian in the Third Round at the US Open.
Alexander Zverev has a strong record against this opponent, but he has lost the two Grand Slam matches played against Felix Auger-Aliassime. This is another big setting in which the players are meeting and so that may be something that is on the Zverev mind, even if his overall level here in Turin has been higher than what the World Number 8 has been able produce.
Credit has to be given to Felix Auger-Aliassime for battling back to beat Ben Shelton a couple of days ago, while he has also shown plenty of strength to come through a calf injury suffered in the opening match and still be able to have an opportunity to reach the Semi Final here.
The pressure will be on Felix Auger-Aliassime to serve well and the head to head on the hard courts has seen Alexander Zverev earn a significant edge in that department. Even in the defeat in New York City in the last Grand Slam of the season, Alexander Zverev earned more Break Points than Auger-Aliassime and so there will be a confidence in the German's camp that their man can come through.
In the two matches both have played in this Group, Alexander Zverev has just been the more convincing and that may ultimately show up in this match, which is effectively a Quarter Final.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is dangerous and he is not likely to throw in the towel, but the fine edge in the biggest moments may be with Alexander Zverev and the latter can join Jannik Sinner in the Semi Final lineup.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
ATP Finals: 7-2, + 3.28 Units (9 Units Staked, + 36.44% Yield)
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