It was not a very good start for the Tennis Picks at the WTA Finals, but the Group Stage matches continue on Sunday.
This offers an opportunity to bounce back in what looks a very competitive Group as two more Grand Slam Champions begin their bid to win the 2025 WTA Finals.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: The second Group at the WTA Finals gets underway on Sunday and the first match features the US Open Champion Aryna Sabalenka.
The World Number 1 reached the Final at the Australian Open and French Open and was beaten in the Semi Final at Wimbledon, which may have knocked some confidence at the business end of the biggest tournaments. However, winning the US Open is a reminder of the quality of Aryna Sabalenka and she has really enjoyed playing on the hard courts.
Last year she was upset in the Semi Final here in Riyadh, but Aryna Sabalenka continues to show plenty of consistency having reached the Semi Final twice and the Final in each of the last three years in the tournament. However, it cannot be ignored that she has yet to win the WTA Finals and Aryna Sabalenka has not been in action for almost a month, which may give the other three players in this Group real confidence.
First up to take on the challenge of the World Number 1 is Jasmine Paolini who has to be credited for the consistency she has shown on the Tour. Some may have wondered if she could repeat the success of 2024, but the Italian has maintained her form and the World Number 8 will have nothing to lose in this event.
The US Open run will have disappointed Jasmine Paolini, but she has reached the Quarter Final in Beijing and backed that up with consecutive Semi Final runs in Wuhan and Ningbo. Each of those runs were ended by players who will be competing in Riyadh and this has proven to be a tough match up for Paolini, especially on the faster surfaces.
Aryna Sabalenka has won four in a row against Jasmine Paolini since being upset by the latter in Indian Wells on the hard courts, and three of those wins have been on this surface. That includes a straight sets win here in Riyadh last season and Sabalenka was able to find the breaks of serve needed to cover this line when they met in the Group Stage twelve months ago.
You have to expect Jasmine Paolini to do whatever she needs to do in order to keep this one competitive, but ultimately Aryna Sabalenka has been the far superior hard court player over the course of the year.
As long as the World Number 1 is focused enough, she should be able to find the breaks needed to cover this handicap line set.
Coco Gauff - 2.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The defending Champion begins her campaign to win another WTA Finals on Sunday in the last of the four Singles matches to be played to open the tournament.
Coco Gauff won the French Open this season, but will perhaps be disappointed with her efforts at the other Grand Slam events. However, winning the WTA Finals in consecutive years will make sure the American remains full of confidence in what she can achieve in 2026 and the World Number 3 will enter the event in Riyadh in strong form.
The Fourth Round loss at the US Open will have hurt, but Coco Gauff has reached the Semi Final in Beijing and won the title in Wuhan.
The latter of those wins came courtesy of getting the better of a friend in Jessica Pegula and that is the same opponent who will be standing on the other side of the net in this opening Group match. The World Number 5 has had another consistent year on the Tour, but the Grand Slam title eludes Jessica Pegula and time may be running out to change that.
Jessica Pegula reached the Semi Final at the US Open and she has enjoyed a decent Asian swing of her own, and the 31 year old American continues to be a very tough out on the hard courts.
However, she is just 1-5 on the hard courts when facing top ten Ranked opponents and that includes losing to Coco Gauff in the Wuhan Final in straight sets.
The younger of the compatriots has won the last couple of matches between these friends and that includes Coco Gauff beating Jessica Pegula here in Riyadh twelve months ago.
Nothing is going to come easy for Gauff, which is what the higher Ranked player would expect, but the French Open Champion has the slight edge over Jessica Pegula and may just win enough of the biggest points to earn the victory in the match and the cover of the spread set.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Coco Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
WTA Finals: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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