Three weeks remain in the College Football season and so the jockeying for high Rankings to earn a place in the Playoffs begins to really heat up.
There are some big games left on the schedules, which will begin to separate out the top of the Rankings, while the Playoff Committee are potentially going to have some big decisions to make.
Some are even suggesting there could be a path towards not including the ACC Champion, which would be a huge blow to a Conference that had an unbeaten Champion miss out on the four team Playoff just two years ago. However, the top of that Conference has been littered with teams who have some poor losses on the resume and the likes of Georgia Tech and Miami are struggling to even make the Championship Game as the two highest Ranked teams in the Conference.
That could pave the way for two of the non-Power 4 Conference Champions to be included at the expense of the ACC, while the SEC and Big Ten are expected to make up the majority of the teams in the twelve team bracket.
However, games in Week 12 through Week 14 will separate those within the Conference and upsets could shake up the whole Ranking debate next week.
Week 11 was another poor one for the College Football Picks and a bounce back is needed with the six selections made ahead of the next round of games.
There will be no Friday selection in Week 12 with the opening selections coming from the Midday Eastern Time slot and being played throughout Saturday.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: The latest Rankings released by the Playoff Committee have maintained Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2) in the top ten and they have a clear path to earn another spot in the twelve team post-season party. Last year the Fighting Irish were beaten in the National Championship Game and there was a real concern that losses in the first two games of 2025 would have ended the Playoff bid before it really got started.
Seven wins in a row have clearly kept the Fighting Irish involved, but they can also be grateful that one of the losses was to the unbeaten Texas A&M Aggies who are very well respected by the Playoff Committee. That defeat was by a single point and so the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have to feel confident that winning out will earn them a spot in the post-season, which would have been the minimum ambition in South Bend when the campaign got underway.
This looks to be the most difficult game left on the schedule for Notre Dame against a Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2) team that have their own ambitions of making the Playoff.
They are currently just outside of the top two places in the ACC, but Pittsburgh share a 5-1 Conference record with four teams in the Conference, while the Duke Blue Devils are 4-1 in ACC play. Only two will be able to make the Conference Championship and only one of those is likely to move forward into the Playoff and so you could kind of understand what Head Coach Pat Narduzzi meant when stating that he would 'gladly' see his team blown out in Week 12 if it meant Pittsburgh win out and earn a spot in the Conference Championship Game.
Pat Narduzzi was trying to make the point that this game does not impact the ACC standings, but it has not gone down very well with the Pittsburgh fans.
His team have won five in a row and you have to imagine they are not so concerned with what was being said to the media and instead will have been working hard to keep the momentum going.
Games against Georgia Tech and Miami remain on deck for the Panthers, but they are coming out of a Bye Week and Pittsburgh are 14-7 against the spread when plauying with rest under Pat Narduzzi. This record is 6-1 against the spread when Pittsburgh are playing at home and so the spread looks a little wide, even if the Head Coach has suggested focus could be on the two remaining ACC games instead.
The Line of Scrimmage will be the key battle when the Fighting Irish have the ball- Notre Dame have a solid duo at Running Back who can pound the rock very effectively behind this Offensive Line, but the Pittsburgh Defensive Line is the strength of the team on this side of the ball and it is going to determine so much about how this game is played out.
If the Fighting Irish win up front, they will feel they can move the ball all day.
However, CJ Carr could be facing some pressure at Quarter Back if the Panthers are able to force the road team into third and long spots on the field. The Pittsburgh Secondary have been able to step in front of passes and make big plays, even if they are a unit that can be exposed by Quarter Backs, and turnovers could really give the home team an opportunity to keep this one competitive.
The expectation is that the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will find a way to win, but the Panthers are at home and should be well prepared to keep this one close on the scoreboard.
They will be relying on the Defensive unit to make plays with the likelihood being that Pittsburgh are going to be inconsistent at best when they do have the ball in their own hands.
It feels much clearer that the Panthers are going to struggle to establish the run and that is going to be a problem for Mason Heintschel at Quarter Back, despite his personal numbers being very impressive. For starters being in third and long would put pressure on the Offensive Line to keep the pocket clean against this strong Notre Dame pass rush, while Heintschel has been guilty of throwing Interceptions when that pressure has been in his face.
The feeling is that Notre Dame may edge the turnover battle with that in mind and they can get the better of this contest, even if it means beating the spread against a rested Pittsburgh team that have been very good when given additional preparation time.
Notre Dame should have a bit more consistency with the ball and they are 8-4 against the spread as the road favourite.
Pat Narduzzi is still below 0.500 against the spread when overseeing a game as an underdog with the Pittsburgh Panthers and the team could soon begin to turn their attention to the next two weeks if they fall behind in this one. The Panthers may end up seeing a couple of turnovers give the Fighting Irish the short fields from which they can pull away for a big win and just give the Playoff Committee further reason to strengthen the Notre Dame place in the top twelve of the Rankings.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: There is not going to be too many teams who are able to progress through the entire regular season schedule and not face a couple of sticky moments.
The Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) had to battle to get past the Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 11 in the second of back to back road games, but they did find a way to earn the victory and remain unbeaten in 2025.
Despite that, the Hoosiers are the Number 2 Ranked team in College Football with the Number 1 being the defending Champions Ohio State Buckeyes and both teams are set to meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. All eyes may already be turning towards that game in early December, but the Hoosiers have been given a real reminder that they will have to focus on the two remaining teams to play before the end of this month.
Indiana are going to be big favourites to win those remaining games considering the opponents have a combined 1-12 record in the Big Ten through eleven weeks of the season.
First up is the Wisconsin Badgers (3-6) who won for the first time in the Conference last week and who can still become Bowl eligible by winning out.
This is the Hoosiers last home game of the season, at least in the regular season, and Head Coach Curt Cignetti will likely have taken note of the fact that the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes have blown out Wisconsin this season. Both of those teams are Ranked in and around the Hoosiers and so this may be seen as a chance for Indiana to just cement their current placing, especially with a Bye Week coming up to reset.
Indiana will have to respect the recent performances of the Wisconsin Defensive unit- they are able to play the run pretty well and that has helped the Secondary.
The challenge for the Hoosiers is trying to establish the run, which is always an important part of the game plan, and they will be confident in the Offensive Line. If they can battle up front and rip off some big gains, the day should be a comfortable one for the Indiana Hoosiers who can move the ball pretty efficiently, especially with Quarter Back Fernando Mendoza looking to show a bit more of a convincing performance after a tough day against the Nittany Lions.
No one will ignore the fact that this is a huge spread, but that is very much down to the Offensive issues the Badgers have had all season.
While the Hoosiers will feel they can find a way to pound the rock with some success and have a real belief in the Quarter Back, the Wisconsin Badgers have been a pretty miserable Offensive unit.
They have not been able to run the ball very well, while the Badgers are going to have to go with an inexperienced Quarter Back again this week. Both Carter Smith and Hunter Simmons had playing time from the position in the win over the Washington Huskies, but neither really had any success and now they are playing an Indiana Secondary who will be keen on turning the ball over.
Wisconsin are averaging just over 12 points per game this season- they failed to score against the Buckeyes and Iowa Hawkeyes, while the Badgers scored just 7 points against Oregon.
All of that adds up to whether Indiana can score enough points to cover- the Ducks struggled against the Badgers, but both Iowa and Ohio State had much more success and Indiana are likely going to be highly motivated to go out on a high at home.
The Hoosiers are averaging around 52 points per game at home and they may need to get to just shy of 40 points in this one to secure a cover.
Oklahoma Sooners @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: There is a chance that the Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) can secure their place in the SEC Championship Game at the end of Week 12, but they will need to maintain the unbeaten record in the Conference.
No one will be taking anything for granted, even after putting together an eight game winning run, and especially as it has not been forgotten how the Crimson Tide were crushed in Norman twelve months ago.
Alabama are on course to return to the College Football Playoff and were Number 4 in the latest Rankings released, but the Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) are still hoping they can do enough to impress the Committee and earn a spot of their own. They came out of the latest Rankings at Number 11, but the Sooners know that they will need to be inside the top ten come the end of the season if they are going to be involved in the twelve team post-season picture.
This is the key game for the Sooners, who finish off the season against the Missouri Tigers and LSU Tigers in home games.
They kept themselves alive by beating the Tennessee Volunteers on the road in Week 10 and Oklahoma are coming out of a Bye Week. Any team in that position at this stage of the regular season could be very dangerous and the Oklahoma Sooners will have studied tape from the win over Alabama in 2024 and look for the little creases that could turn this game in their favour.
Both teams are going to have some challenges to move the ball with some consistency.
The Sooners will be looking for the Offensive Line to try and win at the Line of Scrimmage against what has been another tough Alabama Defensive Line. Performances going into the Bye Week would have offered Oklahoma encouragement in the way the Offensive Line was playing, but over the course of the season it has been tough for them up front and that has shifted the pressure onto Quarter Back John Mateer.
Big expectations have been carried by John Mateer since arriving from the Washington State Cougars, and he does offer a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position. However, he has not really reached the same level produced in 2024 in a tougher Conference and schedule and Mateer may have issues if he is being forced to throw out of third and long spots on the field.
If running the ball is going to be a challenge for the Wisconsin Badgers, it is going to be doubly difficult for the Alabama Crimson Tide.
All season the Crimson Tide have not been able to do enough on the ground and that remains a concern for them and their chances to win another National Championship. They are not expected to get much joy in this one against the strength of the Badgers Defensive unit, but Alabama will still believe they can do enough Offensively to win the game.
Much of that confidence comes from having Ty Simpson at Quarter Back who is close to 2500 passing yards and who has thrown 21 Touchdown passes with a single Interception this season.
As much as the Sooners have impressed with their ability to play the run, the Secondary had been struggling before the Bye Week and allowing an average of almost 300 passing yards per game in the last three SEC games played. Head Coach Brent Venables will have had his Coaches working to improve on those numbers, especially when facing Simpson and company in Tuscaloosa, but it is an area that the home team can find the edge needed.
Brent Venables has struggled to get his team going when they are facing an opponent playing with revenge and the Sooners are just 5-9 against the spread in that spot.
Oklahoma are only 5-4 against the spread as the road underdog during this Head Coach's tenure and the suggestion is that the Alabama Crimson Tide can just show enough consistency in the passing game to edge to the cover of this spread.
NC State Wolfpack @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The Power 4 Conferences always expect their Champions to be involved in the College Football Playoff, but there is a real chance that the ACC might miss out this season with the way things have played out.
Two seasons ago, the Florida State Seminoles were not invited into the four team Playoff, despite an unbeaten record, and the ACC have to be concerned that the Champion could be left out again if teams continue to suffer disappointing losses.
With the Seminoles kicking off the season with an upset over the Alabama Crimson Tide and big expectations carried by the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes (7-2), this is something that the ACC could not have envisioned.
Even now, the Hurricanes are Ranked as the best team in the Conference, but they are 3-2 in the Conference and will need to win out and hope for a number of permutations to land their way if they are to even make the Championship Game. Winning out might give the Playoff Committee something to think about anyway, but it is unlikely to be enough to earn a spot in the twelve team Playoff.
For now the only part the Hurricanes can control is winning out and they need to find some consistency having lost two of the last four games played.
This is the last home game of the season and Miami do still have to play the Pittsburgh Panthers, which could be a pivotal game.
Overlooking the NC State Wolfpack (5-4) would be a mistake- the record may not leap off the page and the Wolfpack are only 2-3 in the ACC, but they are playing after a Bye Week and ended the Georgia Tech unbeaten record in Week 10. This is a team who also produced the only Conference loss the Virginia Cavaliers have had this season and the Wolfpack are potential spoilers even if both of those wins have been at home.
The Wolfpack are 17-9 against the spread when playing after a rest, although that record is built on being at home following the Bye. You still have to have a huge amount of respect for a team that is still in need of one more win to become Bowl eligible and NC State will be very happy to play spoiler.
It is the battle on the Line of Scrimmage that is a feature of yet another game- the Wolfpack Offensive Line have opened up big running lanes, but the Miami Defensive Line is very strong against the run. The Hurricanes will want to clamp down up front and force CJ Bailey to try and have to beat them with his arm, although the Quarter Back will be confident form having thrown over 550 yards and 5 Touchdown passes in his last two starts.
This is a tough Secondary to compete against and one that is capable of turning the ball over, which is the challenge for CJ Bailey considering what happened when the Wolfpack faced Notre Dame Fighting Irish last month.
Miami will also be expecting to be tested when it comes to establishing the run, but the difference is that they have found a consistent pass rush to rattle Quarter Backs when stuck in third and long spots. This has not been the case for the NC State Wolfpack and that extra time for Carson Beck could make all of the difference in the outcome of this game.
Unlike the Hurricanes Secondary, the Wolfpack have allowed teams to pile up the numbers through the air in recent games and Miami's experienced signal-caller is going to be able to do the same. This should give the home team the consistency to move the ball that may be lacking for the Wolfpack and Miami can push clear of the handicap mark to give the Playoff Committee evidence of their strengths.
The Hurricanes are just 1-3 against the spread in the last four games, but the NC State Wolfpack have been set as the road underdog three times this season and all have ended in straight up and against the spread defeats.
Utah Utes @ Baylor Bears Pick: There is still a healthy amount of respect being given to the Utah Utes (7-2) who are Number 13 in the latest Playoff Rankings, but the route into the post-season remains very difficult.
Barring some big upsets in the last three weeks of the season, Utah will likely know that multiple Big 12 teams are not expected to be selected for the twelve team Playoff.
Instead it will the Conference Champions who can only really feel confident that they will be involved in the First Round and Utah have a lot of work to do if they are going to be even involved in that Championship Game.
They are 4-2 in the Big 12 this season, but the Utes have lost to both Texas Tech and BYU who are both at 5-1.
Utah will have to finish strong and then hope a number of results go their way, but the only concentration for the team in Week 12 is getting the better of the Baylor Bears (5-4).
One more win is needed to become Bowl eligible, but this has been a disappointing season for the Bears who are 3-3 in the Big 12.
The Bears have piled up some solid Offensive numbers and they are at home this weekend as they prepare to move into spoiler mode, but this is a Defensive unit that will pose a significant test. Running the ball is going to be tough and that will shift a lot of pressure onto Sawyer Robertson who has been operating behind a shaky Offensive Line.
Any time Robertson is in third and long spots, the Utah pass rush is going to get after him and this is a Utes Secondary that have continued to impress. Throwing the ball with consistent success is not going to be easy for Baylor and you can begin to understand why they have been set as a big home underdog.
The Offensive unit have needed to pile up the points to aid what has been a pretty disastrous Defensive season for Baylor.
The Bears have had a Bye Week to try and figure things out, but the Defensive Line have struggled in recent games and now have to take on this powerful Utah Offensive Line that have loved establishing the run. They have done more than that recently by helping the team rip off some huge gains on the ground and Utah are expected to be playing in third and short spots for much of the afternoon.
Devon Dampier returned at Quarter Back in the impressive win over the Cincinnati Bearcats and he will be pretty comfortable with the spots in which Utah choose to have him throw. Recent passing numbers against the Bears Secondary have not been that eye-catching, but that is also partly down to the successes teams have had pounding the rock and not needing to pick up huge chunks through the air to keep the chains moving.
It is likely to be the game plan for Utah and this is a team looking to add some style to the victories being produced.
The Utes are 3-1 against the spread as the road favourite this season and have beaten Baylor in each of the last two seasons- they look capable of doing that again and likely make some big Defensive plays to push clear of this spread.
Texas Longhorns @ Georgia Bulldogs Pick: 'Only' three SEC teams were selected to make up the twelve team College Football Playoff last season, but the Conference is set for a bounce back year in 2025.
This is the Conference that has long prided itself in being the best in College Football, but it was the Big Ten who had more participants last season. Some have suggested that is partly down to the greater depth in the SEC and teams playing in this Conference have received plenty of respect from the College Football Playoff Committee this time around.
If the season was to end today and the current Rankings were all that matters to the final Playoff shake-up, the SEC would have six teams inside the top 12 Rankings. However, the Conference is likely going to thin out the field over the last three weeks of the regular season and this game in Athens, Georgia is going to be a pivotal one to how the final Rankings come out.
The Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) were one of the three SEC teams that played in the Playoff in 2024, but they were upset as the Number 2 Seed in the Quarter Final.
This season they are currently Number 5 in the Rankings, but the Bulldogs need to win out to maintain that spot, especially as they only have one SEC game left. Even winning that last game may not be enough to take part in the Championship Game, but the focus is to put another solid win on the board and the Bulldogs are unlikely to be overlooked if they have an 11-1 record at the end of the regular season.
In Week 12 they are hosting the Texas Longhorns (7-2) who are back in the top 10 of the Rankings, but who are under pressure to finish the season as strongly as possible. There is still a chance that the Longhorns can push their way into the SEC Championship Game, but that will mean needing to upset the odds here and also beaten currently unbeaten Texas A&M Aggies in Week 14.
To say it is challenging is an understatement, but Texas had won four in a row heading into the Bye Week and finally showed the Offensive output that many had expected this season in beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Vanderbilt Commodores.
Winning games is impressive, but the Longhorns have to know that this Defensive unit is going to offer a lot more resistance than Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.
Arch Manning is almost certainly going to spend another year in College Football before heading off to the NFL and his last two performances have shown the talent this Quarter Back has. He also carries big expectations with that surname and the Longhorns will go as far as Arch Manning can throw them in this big game.
There will not be a great expectation of receiving a lot of support from the ground attack against this Georgia Defensive Line and that will give Manning some problems. Unlike the last two opponents, this is a Secondary that have made things very difficult for opponents, even with a limited pass rush, and Georgia will believe they can offer enough looks to stall drives and perhaps even force the Quarter Back into a mistake.
The Bulldogs will also be relying on the Quarter Back to throw the ball to move the chains- the Offensive Line are not going to find it easy to open running lanes against this tough Longhorns Defensive Line.
However, Gunner Stockton will be confident in his ability to keep Georgia ticking having thrown for over 2000 passing yards with 15 Touchdown passes and just 2 Interceptions.
Most importantly, Stockton is going to be throwing into a Texas Secondary that have really been struggling to deal with the pass in recent games and that could be a real difference maker with the two Quarter Backs on display.
In the last three games, Texas have allowed well over 300 passing yards per game.
The key is whether the strong Longhorns pass rush can find a way to get to Gunner Stockton, who has been well protected of late- if the Quarter Back gets any time, he should be able to exploit the spaces he sees down the field and Stockton's care with the ball gives Georgia every chance of pushing towards the Playoff and perhaps ending the Texas Longhorns hopes.
Georgia did beat Texas twice in 2024, which will give the Longhorns the motivational edge, but the Bulldogs have been far less erratic than Texas this season.
The Longhorns have lost half of the four road games played this season and barely got the better of the Kentucky Wildcats in the other and so the edge is with Georgia to make enough big passing plays to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 29.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Utah Utes - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 9: 3-3, - 0.19 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)
Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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