The NFL season ticks along into Week 10 and the move into November will just begin to refocus players as they begin to think about what can be achieved.
It helps that the trade deadline has passed and the last remaining Bye Weeks will soon be concluded, while the back of most schedules are filled with Divisional games, which will obviously have a big impact on how they play out.
There are still a number of Divisional leaders that are perhaps surprising, although the likes of the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers have been reminded that there is still plenty of work to do before they reach the post-season. The Colts made some interesting moves before the trade deadline, as did the Philadelphia Eagles and the next month is going to be important to really firm up the contenders to reach the 2025 Playoffs.
Week 9 was a tough week with so many strange looking lines and getting out of it at 2-2 is perhaps disappointing when thinking of how the Tennessee Titans were able to cover (one Punt Return Touchdown and a Pick Six and only just covered).
There should be more options in Week 10, but Picks will be added in the days ahead.
Opening up is a selection from the AFC West clash to be played on Thursday Night Football and further picks will be added to this thread from the remainder of the Week 10 games to be played.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos Pick: As we move into the third quarter of the regular season, you would have to suggest that every Divisional leader in the AFC standings is something of a surprise.
Out in the AFC West, the Denver Broncos (7-2) have the chance to become the first team in the NFL to reach eight wins for the season as they lead the way in the Division ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. They have won all four home games played this season, although the Broncos are 2-2 against the spread to ruin what had been a perfect record for Quarter Back Bo Nix when it has come to covering as the home favourite, and Sean Payton's team are big favourites to earn another victory at Mile High.
Thursday Night Football brings together this AFC West against the Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) who have traded away Jakobi Meyers having failed to convert a two point try to win the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9. This means the first year with Head Coach Pete Carroll and Quarter Back Geno Smith has not gone to plan and the ambition the rest of the way is to make sure they at least match the four wins that were secured in the 2024 season.
Las Vegas do have a surprising road win over the New England Patriots on the resume, the current AFC East Divisional leaders, but three road games played since then have been hard to watch. Not only have the Raiders lost those three games, but the margin of the defeats have been 17, 34 and 31 points and that has to be a concern on the short week.
Of course they are facing a Denver team that have needed big Fourth Quarter heroics to win four of their last five games in this six game winning run.
Sean Payton will be keen to have some of the drama removed from this game so the Broncos have a win on the board and can then rest up and prepare for a big game with the Kansas City Chiefs back in this Stadium in Week 11. That means needing Bo Nix to use some of the Fourth Quarter magic much earlier in the game and it should be noted that Denver have blown out Cincinnati and Dallas here.
The key will be the Line of Scrimmage when the Broncos have the ball- this Offensive Line have been strong up front and opened up some big running lanes for the team, including Bo Nix at Quarter Back, but the challenge is going to be facing up to this Raiders Defensive Line.
As poor as an overall season it has been, the Raiders have been able to play the run pretty well and they have allowed 3.8 yards per carry in the last three games. However, the amount of points being allowed in road games is partly down to the issues Las Vegas have had in stopping the run when playing on the road and so there is going to be a real confidence amongst the Denver Offensive Linemen that they can impose their will on the opponent.
If they can do that, Bo Nix should be able to have a strong game throwing the ball to his talented Receivers.
He has been given time when dropping back to do that and the Raiders Secondary is one that can be exploited by the Broncos.
Bo Nix has not been the most consistent performer this season, but he has been more comfortable at home and this should be an 'easier' game to perform in than it will be for Geno Smith Quarter Backing the Las Vegas Raiders.
Unlike his opposite number, Geno Smith is unlikely to be able to lean on the Offensive Line and look to produce from third and manageable spots on the field. The Raiders have been struggling to run the ball all season and that issue has been really evident in recent games, while in Week 10 they are going up against a strong Denver Defensive Line that has been able to clamp down on the run.
It has shifted a lot of pressure onto the Quarter Back and Geno Smith may be having to deal with a group of Broncos who will be allowed to pin back their ears and get after him in obvious passing situations. Time is likely to run out pretty quickly and that is where the Raiders are going to be struggling without veterans like Jakobi Meyers.
Turnovers could be in play when Geno Smith looks to throw the ball and Denver are likely going to focus on trying to slow down Brock Bowers and force others to step up and beat them. The Broncos are without Patrick Surtain II in the Secondary, but pressure up front against a team that is expected to struggle to run the ball can cover up the hole left in the absence of one of the top Defensive Backs in the NFL.
Last season the Denver Broncos ended their long losing run to the Las Vegas Raiders by beating them twice and both in double digit wins.
The Broncos have failed to cover in their last four Thursday Night games against AFC West opponents, but they can snap that here with the Offensive unit likely to be much more consistent than the Raiders.
This is a big spread and especially when you think of how close recent Denver games have been, even if they have kept winning. However, they have won by margins of 8, 25, 1 and 24 points when playing at home this season and the three straight road blowouts suffered by the Raiders suggests that the Broncos can focus for long enough to secure another double digit win over Las Vegas.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Pick: No one is going to be expecting either of these teams to make the post-season in 2025 and the New York Jets (1-7) have made it clear where they see themselves by trading away some key players. It does mean bringing in a number of high Draft Picks which can be used to quickly turn things around, especially as the Jets are on course to finish with the top overall Pick to go with all the others they have traded for.
They are hosting the Cleveland Browns (2-6) who were perhaps not as active as some thought they might be.
Joe Flacco has been traded to the Cincinnati Bengals already and that has allowed Dillon Gabriel to show what he can do at Quarter Back- he has not had a lot of big time Receivers to throw to, but Gabriel still has to show the upper management that he can be the franchise Quarter Back for a Browns team that have been desperate for one for a number of years.
The yards per attempt in recent games underlines the lack of options, but also perhaps the lack of real faith the Browns have in a rookie Quarter Back.
Instead the lean has been behind the Offensive Line and looking to establish the run and put Dillon Gabriel in third and manageable spots on the field. Opponents have likely read that plan and made things tough, but the Browns could have more success against this AFC East opponent, much as they did when pounding the rock against the Miami Dolphins in mid-October.
They should be effective at doing and that the Cleveland Browns will be looking to win the field position battle in this game where the higher-ups might actually want to see the team lose in order to improve potential Draft position.
However, that is not something that will concern the Head Coach or the players on the current roster and the Cleveland Browns can do enough on the ground to open up the passing game. Dillon Gabriel will be throwing against a Secondary that has just traded away Sauce Gardner and so there is a real opportunity for the Browns to have a good day on the Offensive side of the ball.
Doing that should give Cleveland a big edge with the Defensive unit being the best of the four units that will be going onto the field on both sides of the ball.
Cleveland have been very strong at clamping down on the run and if they can control the Line of Scrimmage, they will have a monster edge over this New York Jets Offense.
Justin Fields will offer a dual-threat at Quarter Back and will be able to pick up some yards on the ground, but the Jets will struggle with consistency and they have to avoid being in third and long spots. Any time they are in obvious passing situations, the Offensive Line are likely going to find it very difficult to keep the Browns out of the backfield and Fields could find it tough to make enough plays through the air with Garrett Wilson being doubtful for a return.
Throwing under pressure has led to mistakes in the passing game and the Cleveland Browns will be looking to pick up a turnover or two to turn this game firmly in their own favour.
Head Coach Kevin Stefanski does not have a very good record coming out of a Bye in his time with the Cleveland Browns, but the Jets return from a Bye and they could potentially be distracted by the Week 11 schedule.
The Jets will be taking on AFC East leaders New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football and that may just allow the Browns to take advantage with a road win.
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears Pick: A dramatic win that was harder than it should have been has just allowed the Chicago Bears (5-3) to close the gap to the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in the NFC North. This is a really competitive Division with none of the four teams having a losing record, but it is important for the Bears to focus on themselves in Ben Johnson's first year as Head Coach.
Next up is a home game against the injury hit New York Giants (2-7) who are almost certainly going to be making changes in the Head Coach position at the end of the season.
Brian Daboll has not really had the tools to avoid being in line for a third straight losing year as the Head Coach of the Giants, but that is unlikely to be enough to save his job.
Rookie Quarter Back Jaxson Dart has given the fans something to hold onto, while another rookie Cam Skattebo had really earned himself some cult support before going down with an injury. Malik Nabers is already out and that has left Dart in a tough spot, although the Quarter Back continues to play with real confidence in his own ability.
Jaxson Dart has not reached 200 passing yards in his last two games, but he does have 3 Touchdown passes without throwing a single Interception, while the Quarter Back never shies away from tucking the ball and running for yards on the ground. He will certainly take real belief out of the issues the Chicago Bears have had in stopping the pass in recent games, although Jaxson Dart won't have everything in his favour.
For example, the Bears Defensive Line have picked up their play in recent outings and they will feel they can control the Line of Scrimmage. The Bears will have to keep one eye on Jaxson Dart and make sure the running lanes are not left open for the rookie, but controlling the usual run will just give Chicago an opportunity to unleash the pass rush and make sure some of the New York drives are stalled.
Things will feel very different on the other side of the ball with the Chicago Offensive Line likely to set up opportunities to rip off some huge gains on the ground. D'Andre Swift may not be able to suit up again, but the Bears have shown they can use the 'next man up' and still have some big rushing gains, while Quarter Back Caleb Williams has shown he is getting more and more comfortable within the system.
Chicago should constantly be in third and manageable spots considering the lack of strength the Giants have shown at the Line of Scrimmage.
And that should make it all the more comfortable when Caleb Williams does step back to throw the ball down the field- the Giants Secondary passing numbers in recent games have looked decent, but that is because they have been pummelled on the ground and teams have simply not had to go to the air for long yardage plays.
Caleb Williams has been given plenty of protection too and the Chicago Bears look capable of backing up the win over the Cincinnati Bengals, even if they had to spend a lot of emotional energy in a game filled with drama.
They do have the Minnesota Vikings on deck, but the Bears have spoken about keeping focused and Williams is 6-2 against the spread after a win.
Since the start of the 2023 season, the Giants are just 7-13 against the spread as the road underdog and the Chicago Bears may just have too much Offensive firepower and consistency for the road team.
MY PICKS: Denver Broncos - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 4.5 Points @ 1.98 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Chargers - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
2025 Season: 25-24, - 1.30 Units (49 Units Staked, - 2.65% Yield)
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