The last couple of days at the WTA Finals have had some exciting matches, notably Aryna Sabalenka's latest win over Jessica Pegula, but only one player has confirmed their place in the Semi Final as the year comes to a close.
A second name will join Elena Rybakina at the end of play on Day 5 in Riyadh when the first of the two Groups come to a conclusion.
Amanda Anisimova and Iga Swiatek are playing in the 'winner takes all' second Singles match on Day 5, while the other Group still has three players vying for two Semi Final places.
Jasmine Paolini is out after suffering a second defeat, but Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula will be working through the permutations. There will be more thoughts on how those potentially shake up in the Day 6 thread, but in this one we are looking to build on the momentum earned from the two winners that were secured on Tuesday.
Those have just pulled the week back closer to where we would want to see it, although there are still four more days to complete at the WTA Finals and work to do in order to secure another strong week at the end of this 2025 season.
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Madison Keys: There is no need to worry about any permutations in this WTA Finals Group as Elena Rybakina and Madison Keys begin Day 5 play.
The former has already secured top spot in the Group having beaten both Iga Swiatek and Amanda Anisimova, while Madison Keys will be exiting the event at the conclusion of this match.
Motivation is going to be tough to find as far as Madison Keys goes and that is because she has already taken some time away from the Tour after losing very early at the US Open. She returned to play in Riyadh, but two relatively comfortable losses has ended her participation before the Semi Final and the focus may already be on getting ready to defend the Grand Slam title she won in Melbourne.
Madison Keys has a big serve, but it has not been firing as she would have hoped and eleven breaks of serve have been handed out in the first two defeats. This has placed her return under pressure, but the lack of recent rhythm has worked against the American.
It has been a different story for Elena Rybakina who had to put some solid results on the board during the Asian swing following the US Open and only just secured her spot at the WTA Finals in mid-October. This has kept her mentally invested and it has to have helped in Elena Rybakina being able to crush her first two opponents to win the Group with a match to spare.
Elena Rybakina has won three of the last four matches played against Madison Keys and she will still have some real regret that the exception was the Fourth Round loss at the Australian Open back in January. It was a match in which Rybakina had looked the stronger player, but Madison Keys was able to come through having played the bigger points more effectively.
Since then, Rybakina has had revenge over Madison Keys by crushing her at the Cincinnati Masters in August, and she has proven to be the player that can get a bit more out of the serve in the head to head. Elena Rybakina has been considerably stronger on the serve in this tournament too and being able to roll through those games may allow the World Number 6 to just remain aggressive enough on the return to win the third Group match and cover what looks a big number on paper.
Amanda Anisimova + 3.5 games v Iga Swiatek: This is just the third career meeting between Amanda Anisimova and Iga Swiatek and the previous two have been at the last two Grand Slam events played.
So this final Group match at the WTA Finals is not going to be nearly as important as the matches in the Wimbledon Final and US Open Quarter Final, but it is one that will decide which of the two players join Elena Rybakina in the Semi Final.
The Wimbledon Final saw Iga Swiatek crush Amanda Anisimova in historic fashion and the double bagel handed out might have affected players with lesser mental resolve than the American.
Instead Amanda Anisimova put together a decent summer which concluded by reaching the US Open Final, as well as earning revenge over Iga Swiatek by beating her in straight set in the Quarter Final in New York City.
2025 has already proven to be a year in which Amanda Anisimova has made good on her obvious promise and her ability to bounce back from setbacks will make her a leading contender at the Grand Slam events in 2026. She has shown more of that battling quality in coming from a set down in the last match against Madison Keys to keep herself in contention at the WTA Finals and Amanda Anisimova will be pretty comfortable with the match up considering how the US Open meeting played out.
In that match, Amanda Anisimova was the more consistent server and she was very aggressive against the Iga Swiatek second serve.
More of that is going to be needed in this last Group match, although the focus for the World Number 4 will be on making sure her own serve is operating more effectively. In the two matches played in Riyadh, Amanda Anisimova has not served nearly as well as she would have hoped, although the mometum may be with her after fighting back to beat Madison Keys in three sets.
The American looked to have a bit more rhythm in the last couple of sets against Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova has to take a huge amount of encouragement from the way Iga Swiatek collapsed to a defeat against Elena Rybakina on Monday.
Keeping up on the scoreboard is key with Iga Swiatek perhaps not dealing with the pressure being out on her by opponents as she has in the past.
That looks to be the key for Amanda Anisimova and she is perhaps being underestimated in this Group match.
Memories of the defeat in SW19 are always going to be hard to shake, but Amanda Anisimova showed how well she can handle those distractions in her run at the US Open. Beating Iga Swiatek along the way will have done her a lot of good and there is every chance that the lower Ranked player may find a way through to the last four here in Riyadh.
MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)
Amanda Anisimova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
WTA Finals: 4-4, - 0.42 Units (8 Units Staked, - 5.25% Yield)
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