The last Singles match on Day 4 of the tournament finally produced the first Semi Finalist at the end of year tournament on the ATP Tour.
The home fans will be very happy that the defending Champion Jannik Sinner has made it through, but now the attention will turn to the other Italian playing in the ATP Finals.
Lorenzo Musetti will have to beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Evening Session, but the permutations will become very clear to the World Number 9 before he enters the court. Earlier on Taylor Fritz and Alex De Minaur conclude Group action with all four players still having avenues through to the last four, although there are clearer paths for some more than others.
Day 5 sees this Group come to a conclusion and we will have one Semi Final match confirmed for Saturday, while needing Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime to fight it out for the last of the final four spots.
Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The final placings in this Group at the ATP Finals will be decided on Thursday and all four players are still able to make it through to the Semi Final of the tournament with a single match to play.
This is rarely the case at the end of year Championships, but the permutations are obviously easier for some players compared with others.
Alex De Minaur has been very open about his admitting his frustrations having led Lorenzo Musetti 5-3 in the final set on Tuesday and looking on course to eliminate the Italian. Instead it was De Minaur who has been left on the edge of elimination after losing four games in a row to lose the match and be pushed to the bottom of the Group.
The only saving grace for Alex De Minaur is that he won a set in that match- he admitted to the press that the frustration of throwing away another winning position has been getting to him, but winning that set means the Australian can move through to the Semi Final with a straight sets win and a defeat for Musetti in the other match in the Group.
Of course the immediate pressure is on Alex De Minuar to win this match in straight sets and you do have to worry about his emotions and how locked in he is going to be if he does drop a set in this final Group match.
His opponent is Taylor Fritz who beat Lorenzo Musetti to open the Group, but was not able to built on winning the first set tie-breaker in the eventual loss to Carlos Alcaraz. The situation is much clearer for the World Number 6 who will know that he will be playing in the Semi Final on Saturday if he wins this match.
In fact, Taylor Fritz has even more control over his own fate.
He can even afford to lose this match in three sets and go through, although the obvious concern there will be Lorenzo Musetti upsetting Carlos Alcaraz later on.
With that in mind, Taylor Fritz should be able to play with more clarity throughout the time on the court- no matter what happens in the first hour, Fritz will be concentrating on winning the match, whereas Alex De Minaur's own concentration could be adversely affected if he loses either of the first two sets and knows his time in Turin is coming to a conclusion.
Out of the two players, Taylor Fritz has been playing with a bit more overall belief in his tennis and he has put together the stronger numbers.
Alex De Minaur had regularly been getting the better of Taylor Fritz in the head to head, but the latter has been turning that around and has won the last two meetings between the players. They have not met in the 2025 season, but Taylor Fritz did beat Alex De Minaur here in the Group Stage twelve months ago having come from a set behind on that occasion when edging the bigger points.
This time it could be tougher for Alex De Minaur to stay mentally checked into the contest and Taylor Fritz can move into the Knock Out Rounds again at this end of year tournament.
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There are sixteen permutation of final results in this Group Stage that would see Carlos Alcaraz make it through to the Semi Final of the ATP Finals and just two that would see him miss out.
Most players who have won two matches in the Group Stage would expect to progress and a win by Alex De Minaur earlier in the day would secure the World Number 1's spot in the last four.
If Taylor Fritz has won the earlier Singles match, that would mean that Carlos Alcaraz needs to win at least a set in this one if he is going to progress.
That would also mean Lorenzo Musetti HAS to win in straight sets, while an Alex De Minaur win would leave the Italian needing any kind of victory to move out of the Group having lost the opening match.
Unlike most football tournaments, matches are not played simultaneously at the end of the Group Stage at this tennis event and so the situation for both players will only become clear once the first match is completed.
It could be a potential factor- will Carlos Alcaraz be fully focused if Alex De Minaur has won and already seen his place booked in the Semi Final? That could depend on how things are shaking up in the other Group, but a Jannik Sinner win on Wednesday will mean the Runner Up in this section will have to face him in the Semi Final.
This could double down the focus for Carlos Alcaraz who may want to retain some momentum by winning all three Group matches, which is the only way he can guarantee top spot in the section.
He will have a lot of respect for Lorenzo Musetti who has shown he can dig into the reserves to keep himself alive in the event having won the last four games played against Alex De Minaur to beat the Australian in the last match in the Group. A defear would have meant elimination, but Musetti showed he could dig deep enough to claw himself out of a hole and has had a day of rest between matches this time.
The three matches played between the players this season will have underlined how competitive Lorenzo Musetti can be against Carlos Alcaraz, although all three were played on clay courts.
Previous hard court meetings between the players have been dominated by the World Number 1 and Carlos Alcaraz has really been able to dictate behind the serve.
This has been a tournament where Alcaraz still has room for improvement on the serve, but he has been returning efficiently and the Lorenzo Musetti serve was under attack against both of his previous opponents. Neither is really as strong as Carlos Alcaraz on the return and he could grind down the home player, regardless of the overall situation for the World Number 9 as far as the progression permutations go.
Those previous hard court results against Carlos Alcaraz are also a factor and this is a match that feels like it could end in a similar scoreline that was faced by Lorenzo Musetti in his opening defeat.
MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
ATP Finals: 6-1, + 3.53 Units (7 Units Staked, + 50.43% Yield)
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