The end of November is fast approaching and this is the time when people will begin to wonder which of the fourteen NFL teams are going to work their way into the Playoffs.
It really does feel like six of those teams will be playing in the West Divisions- both AFC and NFC- while the NFC North has set the table for three of the teams to be also be playing in the post-season.
Some big teams could still be missing when it is all said and done in early January and some are worrying about the Kansas City Chiefs- this feels like a big week for them against the Indianapolis Colts, while injuries have been really impacting teams all around the League at a much higher rate than is usually the case.
However, that has also kept the door open for some teams to challenge for Playoff spots and the Baltimore Ravens are proof of that with just a game separating them and the AFC North lead, while having big games against the Pittsburgh Steelers to be played.
The NFL have made a good decision to put plenty of Divisional games on the second half of the regular season schedule and that will keep players motivated.
It has been a difficult opening eleven weeks of the NFL season and the Picks are running just under 0.500, which is a real disappointment.
Special Teams have been having a big impact with the new kick off rules, and those have landed in the wrong way more often than not, but that should be something that reverts to the mean.
Once you reach Thanksgiving Day, it does feel like the regular season is on the turn towards home and that means there is some pressure to get the Picks moving with some momentum and consistency.
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: They won, and that matters, but the Baltimore Ravens (5-5) will be aware that they need a stronger performance from Lamar Jackson at Quarter Back if they are going to have the kind of season hoped. He looked a little wary in the win over the Cleveland Browns and made some mistakes, but the Ravens have managed to remain hot on the heels of the AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers and they still have to face this rival twice in the final weeks of the regular season.
The Ravens are scheduled to play on Thanksgiving Day and will have a mini-Bye ahead of the first game with the Steelers, but Baltimore have been playing catch up after a slow start to the season and cannot afford any slips against teams they are expected to beat.
In Week 12 they are hosting the New York Jets (2-8) who had won two in a row before losing on Thursday Night Football against the AFC East leading New England Patriots.
This defeat has been seen as an opportunity to make a change at Quarter Back, which does feel harsh on Justin Fields.
Tyrod Taylor was scheduled to come in as starter during the opening run of losses, but the Jets backup was injured and Justin Fields helped put together a couple of wins. This has only delayed the move, but it will be asking a lot of the veteran to help the Jets find an Offensive spark they feel has been missing.
He started his career with the Baltimore Ravens, but Tyrod Taylor has bounced around the League as a backup since then and this is going to be a tough test against an improving Ravens Defensive unit.
The hope for the Jets is that they can hand the ball to Breece Hall and look for him to attack a Baltimore Defensive Line that is looking better, but which does give up some big runs when losing a bit of focus. The Quarter Back is capable of moving the pocket with his legs and looking to escape down the field where he can, which will also help, although you have to feel the Baltimore Ravens will know more than most how to handle someone behind Center who can make as many plays with his legs as he does with his arm.
New York will not want to have to rely on Tyrod Taylor and an inexperienced group of Receivers to have to step up and so it is very important to not lose touch with Baltimore on the scoreboard.
Lamar Jackson was clearly dealing with something in the win over Cleveland, but the Ravens are trying to downplay any injury being more than 'wear and tear' that comes with playing Football.
It was the lack of plays with his legs that caught the eye, but the Baltimore Ravens may be comfortable using Derrick Henry in the main to pound the rock against a Jets Defensive Line that have lost some key players in recent weeks. It has resulted in a decline in the numbers against the ground attack and the Ravens should keep Jackson and company in third and manageable spots.
The Sacks piled up last week against the Ravens, but it should be more comfortable for the team if they are running the ball as they should be able to do against the Jets.
This should mean Lamar Jackson does not have to hold onto the ball for too long and there is likely to be a lot more consistency from the home team when it comes to keeping drives moving up and down the field.
A distraction of playing on a short week against a Divisional rival is a concern, but Lamar Jackson has an 11-5-1 record against the spread when set as a double digit favourite in regular season games. After the poor overall performance in the Week 11 win, Baltimore can be much stronger all around in this one and rattle the veteran Tyrod Taylor into a mistake or two, which should see the Ravens pull away.
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions Pick: It has not been a good season for the two New York teams in the NFL and the Giants (2-9) are right there with the Jets in the fight for the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.
They have already fired the Head Coach, but the team have been decimated by injury and are going to be without rookie Quarter Back Jaxson Dart again. He was a part of the old regime so you do have to wonder if the Giants will think about taking a Quarter Back in the next Draft if they finish with the top Pick, so it is important for Dart to get back in the lineup and show what he can do as soon as possible.
It will be Jameis Winston again in Week 12 and the veteran did help the New York Giants to a competitive loss against the Green Bay Packers last week.
However, it was another defeat and that was at home, while this time they are travelling to face a NFC North team on the road and one that is looking to bounce back from a disappointing defeat.
The Detroit Lions (6-4) made too many mistakes and were unable to reach double digits in terms of points in the defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles. They are home this time and Detroit have regularly bounced back from setbacks, even in a season where they have suffered double the number of regular season defeats compared with 2024 and with seven games yet to play.
There is also the potential distraction of playing the early kick off on Thanksgiving Day, but the Lions are 3-1 against the spread in the last four years before that big game.
This season they are also facing an important game against Divisional rivals Green Bay Packers who are above the Lions in the standings, but Head Coach Dan Campbell will want to see a positive response from his team after the below par performance against the Eagles.
We should see a pretty comfortable game plan from the Detroit Lions when they have the ball- the Giants have struggled to stop the run and that is something that the Lions are going to exploit.
Jared Goff had some issues with his timing in the loss to the Eagles, but he should have more time with the team in front of the chains and the Quarter Back can also bounce back with the Lions looking to show off their teeth before the big rematch with the Packers.
Overall it is going to be a much more testing experience for the New York Giants when they have the ball.
Jameis Winston offered up some leadership to a young and banged up crew, but he is likely going to have to make some plays out of third and long spots on the field. The Giants have been operating well enough behind this Offensive Line, but running the ball against the Detroit Defensive Line is never easy and the Giants could soon become one-dimensional with the play-calling as they look to keep themselves in the game.
Despite the injuries in the Secondary, the Detroit Lions have continued to play the pass effectively- they are helped out by the fact that the team can generate a solid pass rush to put the pressure onto Quarter Backs, and that has aided the backup players coming in to plug holes.
This is where the Lions could take control of this game and they are facing a New York Giants team that have not been as effective on the road as they have been at home.
Over the last two and a half years, the Giants are 8-15 against the spread when playing on the road and Dan Campbell's record after a loss suggests the Lions will have too much for the visiting team in Week 12.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The trade for Joe Flacco looked a decent decision for the Cincinnati Bengals (3-7) when they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. They would have been hoping that the veteran could keep them on track, while waiting for Joe Burrow to return, but the Bengals have lost three in a row.
This is a team that has been competitive in those games, but ultimately they needed to get over the line a couple of times.
Joe Burrow has been back in practice, but a decision has been made to not take any risks with the franchise Quarter Back and he has been ruled out for this Week 12 game. The Bengals do play against Divisional rivals Baltimore on Thanksgiving Day, which is a game that Burrow may be targeting, and that is a potential distraction knowing Ja'Marr Chase is also missing this week.
The Bengals are hosting the AFC East leading New England Patriots (9-2) who have been the big surprise package in the 2025 season and who will be looking to extend the lead over the Buffalo Bills.
Right now the Patriots look good to finish with the top Seed in the AFC and they have won eight in a row, while also having had a mini-Bye ahead of this game after beating the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.
Drake Maye has really been growing into the Quarter Back position and he will be encouraged by some of the life being shown by the Offensive Line when it comes to run blocking. The more carries being picked up TreVeyon Henderson, the better the Patriots are becoming, and they can punish this Bengals team on the ground and just make things very comfortable for the Quarter Back.
Injuries on the entire Defensive unit has held the Bengals back and the Secondary have been struggling, which is going to be exposed if the New England Patriots are in third and manageable spots on the field. A confidence has been growing in the chemistry between Drake Maye and his Receivers and the Patriots should be able to keep drives moving with some real consistency.
This is unlikely to be a blowout immediately with the Bengals Offensive Line and Chase Brown showing life in recent outings, while they will have noted some of the issues the Patriots have had in stopping the run. However, the absence of Ja'Marr Chase makes it so much easier to find a game plan to deal with Cincinnati and that could mean focusing on clamping down on the run and asking Quarter Back Joe Flacco to beat them with the Receivers that are available.
Throwing against this Patriots Secondary would have been challenging even with a full complement of Receivers, and Joe Flacco will have to be careful after a back-breaking Interception in what had been a close game against Pittsburgh beforehand.
You cannot dismiss the spread and it being a touch high.
However, the feeling is that the Bengals could be gearing up to give Baltimore all they can handle on Thursday night and that may see them lose a bit of focus for what has been a very good New England team.
MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)
Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
2025 Season: 30-31, - 3.87 Units (61 Units Staked, - 6.34% Yield)
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