The opening College Football Rankings has made it clear that there remains a huge amount of respect for the top of the SEC and Big Ten Conferences and those should combine to produce the majority of the twelve teams that will be competing for the National Championship at the end of this season.
The current deal is that all of the Power 4 Conference Champions will be given a place in the bracket and there will also be the 'best of the rest' Champion from outside the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC.
Notre Dame look like they may be given enough respect to earn another spot if they can win out, and then the remainder of the selections look like they will be carved up by the Big Ten and SEC with teams with one or two losses in those Conferences seen as significantly better than non-Champions from the other Power 4 Conferences.
In the opening Rankings, six teams from the SEC have made the top twelve and three from the Big Ten, although those are going to change as the regular season is conclude over the next three weeks.
However, it does offer motivation for all of those teams of the possibilities that exist even if they cannot make the SEC Championship Game ahead of another important week in the sport.
Houston Cougars @ UCF Knights Pick: Both of these schools were looking for bounce back years after 2024 and it is the Houston Cougars (7-2) who are further along. They are a win away from matching the number of wins from 2023 and 2024 combined, but a home loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers in Week 10 has just pushed the Cougars backwards in the race to reach the Big 12 Championship Game.
They are heading to Florida to take on the UCF Knights (4-4) on Friday evening and this is another team looking to bounce back from a poor loss.
The Knights were blown out by the Baylor Bears in Week 10 and this means they are 1-4 in the Big 12, but UCF are still on course to return to Bowl eligibility and will be keen to get moving towards that goal.
Over the course of the season the UCF Knights have been playing pretty well Defensively and they will feel that they are better than what was shown against Baylor.
Controlling the Line of Scrimmage has been a big advantage for the Knights and they will believe the Defensive Line can contain the Houston threat on the ground. Forcing teams to throw from third and medium or third and long has certainly helped the Knights Secondary and they can certainly have a redemptive effort in this game.
It is the other side of the ball and the Line of Scrimmage which may give the UCF Knights the edge in this game- while the Cougars could struggle to run the ball effectively, the Knights Offensive Line are expected to open up some running lanes against this Houston Defensive Line and keep the team in third and manageable spots on the field.
Recent games has seen the Houston Secondary give up some significant yards through the air too and so the UCF Knights should be able to move the ball with some balance.
The last three games between Houston and UCF have all been won by the latter, although they are a narrow underdog in this one, which has not been the case in those previous wins.
Home advantage may just give the UCF Knights the edge to 'upset' the odds and they can win this Friday night Big 12 showdown.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: If the College Football Playoff started today, the Indiana Hoosiers (9-0) would be going in as the Number 2 Seed behind only the defending Champions Ohio State Buckeyes. Those two teams remain on a collision course in the Big Ten Championship Game and barring a couple of upsets, both Indiana and Ohio State are set to be playing in the Playoff next month.
Despite the 11-2 record in 2024, there were some who lacked belief in what Indiana could achieve this season, but they have surpassed expectations and it would be a surprise if 2025 does not end up with more wins than twelve months ago.
This is potentially the last awkward stop before the Big Ten Championship Game and the Hoosiers will have to remain cautious against the Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5) even if this has been a below par year.
Head Coach James Franklin has been fired, and the Nittany Lions have lost all five Big Ten games in what was expected to be a season where they were able to return to the Playoff and perhaps have a bigger impact. Losing Quarter Back Drew Allar to injury has not helped and the Nittany Lions were just blown out by the Ohio State Buckeyes, but this game is at home and that makes them potentially dangerous.
With all those issues, it is perhaps not a big surprise that it is going to be hard for Penn State to score a lot of points in this one.
They have not been able to run the ball with any authority in recent games and that is not going to change against a Hoosiers Defensive Line that have prided themselves in clamping down on the run.
All of the pressure will be on backup Quarter Back Ethan Grunkemeyer who has thrown just shy of 240 passing yards in his two starts for Penn State against the Iowa Hawkeyes and Ohio State Buckeyes. Playing out of third and long makes it very difficult for any Quarter Back to have consistent success and Grunkemeyer's inexperience is going to make it really challenging to have a lot of consistency moving the ball in this one.
It is going to be tough for the Nittany Lions when they have the ball, but the Defensive unit has to be respected and they can keep Penn State competitive.
A problem in recent games has been stopping the run, and that is going to be put to the test by the Indiana Offensive Line who have been helping the Hoosiers rip off some big gains on the ground.
Unlike the Nittany Lions, it could mean Fernando Mendoza has a bit of time to make his throws into the Secondary and the Indiana Hoosiers can eventually pull away and clear this mark.
Turnovers are always going to be important to the outcome of the spread, but that is another area where Indiana may have the edge and they can come away with another solid win as they continue moving towards the Big Ten Championship Game.
Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats Pick: There are six teams in the Big 12 Conference who will still harbour ambitions of earning a spot in the Championship Game and then moving onto the College Football Playoff. The Conference has three teams Ranked inside the top 13 in the first release of the Playoff picture, but the likelihood is that only one team from the Big 12 will eventually make their way into the Playoff next month.
The Arizona Wildcats (5-3) and Kansas Jayhawks (5-4) are not going to be involved int he final shake up, but this is a season when the schools wanted to see development from 2024 and they are on course to do that. The winner is going to earn Bowl eligibility with some time remaining in the regular season, and both are on course to surpass the number of wins achieved last year.
Both teams arrive in Week 11 having won their last game and snapped a run of consecutive defeats.
Performing well at the Line of Scrimmage when they have the ball is going to be the challenge for Kansas- they have been decent up front over the course of the season, but in recent Big 12 games, the Jayhawks have just hit the wall up front and that has put some pressure on the passing game.
The feeling is that they will have some success running the ball and it should give the Jayhawks opportunities.
It is important to be able to run the ball considering how well the Wildcats Secondary have been playing in recent games, while the Kansas passing game has lacked some consistency. The problem has been the Offensive Line have not been able to contain the pass rush at all when Jalon Daniels has stepped back to throw, although the Quarter Back will be confident if the team has him playing in front of the chains.
Out of the two teams, Arizona's Offensive Line definitely look like having a strong edge at the Line of Scrimmage against this Jayhawks Defensive Line. Stopping the run has been difficult for Kansas all season, but that has been even clearer in recent Big 12 games and so Noah Fifita and the Arizona Offensive unit are likely to be in positive down and distance for much of the game.
Noah Fifita should have a bit more protection when dropping back to throw, and that becomes more comfortable from third and manageable spots. The Jayhawks Secondary have decent numbers from recent games, but that is partly down to the inability to stop the run which means teams are not having to take too many attempts against the Defensive Backs.
Both teams should have Offensive successes, but the consistency edge could be with the Wildcats and they can secure a late score to win and cover.
Auburn Tigers @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: They have already matched the seven wins that were secured in a winning 2024 season, but the Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2) may still want more. The opening College Football Playoff Rankings has Vanderbilt up at Number 16, which is impressive, but there are six SEC teams that have stronger Rankings and the Commodores will need to win out to have any hope of sneaking into the Playoff.
It would be really unexpected and the Vanderbilt fightback that just came up short against the Texas Longhorns in Week 10 could prove costly.
That loss has dropped the Commodores to 3-2 in the SEC and likely prevented a top ten opening Ranking, but they are having a much better season than the Auburn Tigers (4-5) who are just 1-5 in the Conference.
There are plenty of big vacancies all around the College Football scene, but the latest Auburn loss opened up another when Head Coach Hugh Freeze was fired. With games against Vanderbilt and Alabama yet to be completed before the end of the regular season, Auburn need at least one upset to become Bowl eligible and to have an opportunity to finish with a winning record.
In reality they are on course to match the 5-7 record from 2024, although the Auburn job will remain one of the most sought after in College Football as one of a number of SEC vacancies to be filled in the off-season.
Jackson Arnold was supposed to help the Tigers push forward, but his time with Auburn looks to be coming to a close after Ashton Daniels was announced as the starting Quarter Back ahead of this game. You would hardly say that Daniels had a big impact for the team in the loss to the Kentucky Wildcats when he finished with 108 passing yards and an Interception, while continuing to operate behind a shaky Offensive Line.
The Tigers may look to establish the run, but the Commodores have been pretty good at clamping down on the run and it is the Secondary that have struggled most. However, Ashton Daniels may not have the experience nor the current confidence to have the same kind of successes that Arch Manning had for Texas and this gives Vanderbilt a chance to earn a win and remain in touch with the College Football Playoff leading teams.
One of the reasons Auburn will feel they can be competitive is the Defensive unit, which has played at a level expected around these parts.
The Defensive Line have been very strong up front and it is going to be very tough for the Commodores to have the kind of success that they have been used to. However, Vanderbilt are home and they will not shy away from trying to pound the ball on the ground, especially with a Quarter Back who is comfortable making plays with his legs as much as his arm.
Diego Pavia is going to be well aware of the importance of his legs with the Tigers likely to get a strong push up front and look to collapse the pocket, while the dual-threat ability of the Quarter Back is key to at least put the Commodores in a position to be operating in front of the chains.
The Quarter Back does have over 2000 passing yards with 18 Touchdown passes and he should be able to find some spaces to attack this Auburn Secondary. In the main Diego Pavia has looked after the ball when throwing and that is key considering the ability of this Tigers team to turn the ball over and it could see the Commodores battle for another win by a Touchdown mark.
Vanderbilt have done that in wins over LSU and Missouri at home, while Auburn have lost by 7 points at Oklahoma and 6 points at Texas A&M. They also lost by 7 points in Week 10 at home against the Kentucky Wildcats and Vanderbilt can edge past this spread.
MY PICKS: UCF Knights + 1.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats - 4.5 Points @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)
Vanderbilt Commodores - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 10.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals - 18.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 9: 3-3, - 0.19 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)
Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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