The second Group will complete another round of matches on Wednesday and there is every chance the Semi Final lineup will really begin to take shape by the end of play.
The second match is going to feature the World Number 2 and Italian Number 1, and that is the match where the selection from Day 4 will come.
In the Day Session we do have a battle between Ben Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime, but there is just too much uncertainty around both players to be comfortable in making any selection.
At the time of writing, there still has to be some doubts that Auger-Aliassime will even take to the court having looked completely hobbled in the defeat to Jannik Sinner. He is giving himself as much time as possible to recover, but that makes a selection impossible to make with doubts all about the Canadian.
You could recommend his opponent to get the better of a less than 100% Felix Auger-Aliassime, but Ben Shelton has not been himself since pulling out of the US Open with an injury. That looked like being a season ender, but he has played some tennis without the same level of success since that moment and Shelton is another who may be thinking about Melbourne in January more than having a real belief of having a deep run here.
That is especially the case having lost the opening match against Alexander Zverev and the factors just add up to make it a 'no pick' contest.
You can read my thoughts on the second Singles match scheduled for the Night Session below.
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Right off the bat you have to feel this is a very big spread against a potentially very dangerous opponent, but the World Number 2 is going to have the mental advantage having crushed Alexander Zverev for the loss of a single game in the Paris Masters Semi Final a little over a week ago.
That is the most one-sided win in the recent rivalry between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev and the latter is always going to believe that his serve offers him a route into any game. He will certainly expect to have more success with that shot in this Group match at the ATP Finals, although the recent numbers in matches between Zverev and Sinner have suggested a big win for the latter was going to come sooner than later.
This is going to be the fourth meeting between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in the 2025 season and all of the previous three have been on hard courts.
Jannik Sinner has faced just 4 Break Points in the previous three matches and all of those came in the sole match played between the two in the Vienna Final last month. Only one of those Break Points ended up with the point being won by Alexander Zverev, although that cost Jannik Sinner a set in that Final.
At the same time, Jannik Sinner has created 27 Break Points against the Alexander Zverev serve- he had been wasteful in the first two meetings in Melbourne and Vienna with four breaks of serve from 18 Break Point chances generated, but Jannik Sinner was ruthless in Paris and converted 6/9 in that Semi Final.
Over the course of the season, Jannik Sinner has been one of the top return players and his Break Point conversion rate is ranked in the top three. That made it a matter of time before all of the chances he has been creating against the Alexander Zverev serve would show up on the scoreboard and the Italian is likely to have too much for the World Number 3 in this Group match.
In the last twelve months, Alexander Zverev has had a hard lesson when it comes to competing with the top players on the Tour- in matches against top five Ranked opponents, his service numbers have really dipped, but the biggest worry for a player hoping to compete for a Grand Slam is that he has broken in around 8% of return games played.
This has put a huge amount of pressure on Zverev and Jannik Sinner is likely going to do the same in front of the home fans.
Alexander Zverev did beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Group Stage of the ATP Finals here twelve months ago, but had lost six straight matches to top five Ranked opponents before beating Ben Shelton on Sunday. He is going to have to find another level to compete with the defending Champion in this second Group match, although Alexander Zverev will likely remain in a pretty good spot to progress with a single match left to come against Felix Auger-Aliassime (or a replacement if the Canadian is still struggling with his injury).
If he serves at his very best level, Alexander Zverev may keep this close on the scoreboard and this spread will look way to wide.
However, the World Number 3 will have exorcise some mental demons after the embarrassing loss in the French capital just a few days ago and Jannik Sinner may just do enough to find the breaks needed to cover this spread.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
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