You are going to have some serious mathematicians working on the potential permutations out of this final Group at the WTA Finals.
We know Jasmine Paolini is out of contention, but Jessica Pegula is going to need the Italian to at least take part in the match.
Otherwise things will be looking a little concerning for Pegula with the likelihood being she will be awarded the winning points, but will not be able to add anything to the set percentage and game percentage tie-breakers that could be needed.
It is almost certain that Jessica Pegula will be looking to match the dominant wins that both Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka have had over Jasmine Paolini and she will be looking to do that in straight sets.
Three players are chasing the Semi Final spots in the Group and it is Aryna Sabalenka who will be most certain of her own outcome- if she wins, she goes through as Winner.
Coco Gauff will go through with another straight sets win, regardless of how Jessica Pegula performs in her match, while a straights set win for both American players would see both through at the expense of Aryna Sabalenka.
Things get messy if Jessica Pegula beats Jasmine Paolini in straight sets and Coco Gauff can beat Aryna Sabalenka in three sets- all three players would then be looked at 5-3 in terms of sets won and lost and we will have to get down to the games won.
None of the three players fighting it out for a place in the Semi Final will likely be thinking about anything more than simply winning this match and moving through. It will be the players that can perhaps deal with that best who will move onto the last four in this end of year tournament and should make for fascinating viewing on Day 6 in Riyadh.
Jessica Pegula - 3.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: The first Group played out in pretty standard fashion with Elena Rybakina winning all three matches and the last match in the Group deciding who will move through to the Semi Final.
Things are a lot different in the second Group though and there are some permutations to work through to determine who will go through to the last four in the final Singles event of the season.
For Jessica Pegula, the only ambition on Thursday is going to be to win her match in straight sets as both Aryna Sablenka and Coco Gauff have managed to do against Jasmine Paolini. A strong win would be ideal to build up her set percentage win and games percentage win, which could still be a tiebreaker that will need to be used to determine the two players moving through.
Winning in three sets would mean Pegula is watching the other match in the Group and needing Coco Gauff to lose and so the World Number 5 has to be focused on her own match. Ultimately the key for Jessica Pegula is to win in straight sets and then hope there is either a straight sets winner in the other match in the Group or that Aryna Sabalenka wins in three sets.
These two players met back in September after the US Open had been completed and it was Jasmine Paolini who came through in straight sets at the Billy Jean King Cup. That was a win on the hard courts, but the Italian is clearly playing through an illness or an injury and that has seen her lose four of the five matches played at the WTA Finals in both Singles and Doubles tournaments.
This all means Jasmine Paolini has already been eliminated from both tournaments and her form in the two Singles losses suggests the long season has caught up with her. Having to deal with an illness or injury doesn't help and Jasmine Paolini may struggle to keep herself focused and motivated within this Group match.
The handicap mark has moved out another game compared with the one that Coco Gauff had to overcome in the middle of this Group, but Jessica Pegula can get the better of the line.
Perhaps the biggest concern for Pegula and the prospects of progressing is if Paolini withdraws before this match is played and that will impact how her game percentage and set percentage will look at the end of the Group Stage. With one player withdrawn already and with one of the two 'alternates' already out of action, it would mean Jessica Pegula is given the points but would only have a chance of moving into the Semi Final if Coco Gauff is beaten in the other match.
Aryna Sabalenka-Coco Gauff over 21.5 games: By the time this final Group match at the WTA Finals heads to the court, the permutations for both Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff will be clearer as both look to move through to the Semi Final in Riyadh.
Things are pretty clear for Aryna Sabalenka if she wins- she will top the Group and move through and the defending Champion Coco Gauff will be left working things out depending how the other match in the Group has gone.
Most will have expected Jessica Pegula to have already beaten Jasmine Paolini and that would mean the defending Champion is eliminated with a loss.
Assuming Pegula has won, Coco Gauff will be well aware that she needs to beat her old rival Aryna Sabalenka and there are more maths to do about the number of sets and potentially number of games she will need to win.
By the time these two head to the court, the first result will be known and you have to believe both players are preparing to win and not worrying about 'doing enough' to be on the right side of the tie-breakers.
There is a real rivalry between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka and the head to head is now 6-5 in favour of the American who upset the World Number 1 in the French Open Final back in June. Coco Gauff has also beaten Sabalenka in the US Open Final previously and got the better of this opponent in the last four of the WTA Finals here in Riyadh last season and none of this will have escaped Aryna Sabalenka's attention.
Tennis is a game determined by inches and there really has not been a lot between these two players in the numbers and the records- they are 4-4 in eight previous hard court meetings and they have played one another six times in the Semi Final or Final of events and those have also been split 3-3.
Rarely have matches been straight-forward and it should be noted that the last six matches between the pair would have covered the total games line set for this Group match. In fact nine of the last eleven have seen Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff combine for at least 22 games played and the performances at the WTA Finals over the last few days suggest we could need a decider in this one.
However, the players match up well enough to remain competitive even in straight sets losses and and the last three straight sets outcomes in matches between Gauff and Sabalenka have also ended with at least 22 games played.
There is a small chance that the first match could determine how this second Group match is played once the players understand what they need to do, but these two always want to get one over the other. It should mean the focus is on simply winning and it could be a fascinating meeting again with both the World Number 1 and World Number 3 perhaps using the match as a chance to 'lay down a marker' ahead of the Australian Open in January.
MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Aryna Sabalenka-Coco Gauff Over 21.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
WTA Finals: 5-4, + 0.49 Units (9 Units Staked, + 5.44% Yield)
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