NFL Championship Games PlayOff Picks 2024 (January 28th)

There was one 'upset' in the Divisional Round of the NFL PlayOffs when the Kansas City Chiefs got the better of the Buffalo Bills, but fans of the Green Bay Packers will be wondering how their young team blew a huge opportunity to knock off the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

Jordan Love's mistake at the end was costly, and one that he would love to have back. A turnover in desperation time is one thing, but throwing a Pick across your body with time on the clock and a couple of Time Outs was maddening and something Love and the Packers will think about in the off-season.

He showed enough to be rewarded with a new contract and there are plenty of positives for Green Bay to take into the 2024 season.

However, it is the two Number 1 Seeds who will be hosting the Championship Games on Sunday and conspiracy theorists will believe they know who will be facing off in the Super Bowl.

Over the last couple of seasons, the preview for the Super Bowl has featured two distinct colours which have ended up representing the two teams involved. For this year, the colours are red and purple and so many believe that means the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are 'scripted' to meet in Vegas in a couple of weeks from now.

Others suggest the NFL are desperate for Taylor Swift to be at the Super Bowl, and not as the Half Time show in this case, but Football is played on the field and it is no surprise the top Seeds are both favoured having home field advantage and also having been through one Bye in the PlayOffs.

After a 3-1 Divisional Round for the NFL Picks, a very strong season has already been secured for the selections made on the page.

Three more games are to come though and the ambition is to finish up with three more winners, beginning with the selections from the Championship Games which can be read below.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The AFC Championship Game is not being hosted at Arrowhead Stadium this season, but the Kansas City Chiefs are there again and that experience makes them very dangerous.

While there were some question marks about Patrick Mahomes and how his Chiefs would handle playing a road PlayOff game for the first time in the Divisional Round, all were answered positively as they got the better of the Buffalo Bills in a big game again.

After taking out the Number 2 Seed, the Kansas City Chiefs are now travelling to the Number 1 Seeded Baltimore Ravens, who had a much easier time of it in the Divisional Round as they crushed the Houston Texans. Playing the early game on Saturday compared with the Kansas City Chiefs going out last on Sunday will certainly tip some of the favour towards the Baltimore Ravens, but there is an immense amount of respect for the Chiefs and all they have achieved.

There are other factors in their favour- the Ravens have not left home since Christmas Day, while the Chiefs are in the tough spot of having to play back to back road games in the PlayOffs. For all of their experience and achievements, this is a first for Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City since he took over as the starting Quarter Back and it will be a considerable challenge.

Winning in Buffalo was huge, but it has come at a cost for Kansas City who will be without Joe Thuney on the Offensive Line. There is still a minor hope that Thuney will be able to suit up, but he is not trending in the right direction and that would be a huge blow to the Chiefs Offensive Line and Mahomes himself.

Andy Reid is not a massive fan of running the ball over and over, but the Chiefs showed they are willing to do what is needed when they beat the Bills in the Divisional Round. It has been one of the weaknesses of this very strong Baltimore Defensive unit and the importance of being able to establish the run will not be lost on anyone associated with Kansas City.

They have the capabilities of running the ball, although the absence of Joe Thuney will obviously have an impact on that. Losing their Left Guard may also mean the Chiefs are not able to keep the four man pass rush pressure generated by the Ravens from penetrating into the backfield and forcing Patrick Mahomes to get off his spot and have to move around before targeting Receivers down the field.

Unlike last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are not going to be facing a banged up Secondary in the Championship Game- Marlon Humphrey is back in practice and should be ready to go for the Ravens. This is going to put some pressure on the Receivers, who have been inconsistent all season, especially as they are facing a Baltimore Secondary who have been as good as any in the NFL over the course of the season.

So once again it comes back to running the ball effectively and at least giving Patrick Mahomes an opportunity- he will make all of the throws needed, but his Receivers are likely to be more confident in converting those short yardage positions than having to set longer routes and keeping concentration amongst a lot of contact.

The Baltimore Defensive unit have been very good at creating turnovers in contact and so it could be a potentially challenging day Offensively for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Unlike previous seasons, the Chiefs can rely on on the Defensive unit a lot more to make up for the Offensive struggles we have seen throughout the season.

Lamar Jackson had some PlayOff negatives to address last week in the Divisional Round and he and the Ravens did that very well against the Houston Texans. As well as the Texans had been playing Defensively, this is another test for the Baltimore Ravens as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs are one of the top Defensive units in the NFL, but you may not always appreciate that with the Offense making the headlines. However, they have had real issues when it comes to stopping the run, including last week against James Cook, and this could be a real problem against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

Injury has robbed the Ravens of their top two Running Backs, but they have still found a way to pound the rock behind this Offensive Line. Having someone like Jackson at Quarter Back helps and it will have been noted that Josh Allen was plenty effective when tucking the ball and running with it, which is what the Baltimore Quarter Back will do on designed plays too.

Running the ball should mean it is harder for Chris Jones and the Kansas City pass rush to impact the game, while also making it easier for Jackson when he does drop back to throw the ball down the field. The Ravens may not have the stand out names in the Receiving corps, but Zay Flowers has shown his worth and another week of practice should have Mark Andrews back on the field.

This is a huge boost for the Ravens and the home team can win this game.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is not an easy decision- he has won eight of eleven starts when set as the dog, including last week, while Mahomes is 5-0 against the spread when given more than a Field Goal worth of points.

A backdoor cover orchestrated by one of the best at Quarter Back cannot be ruled out, but the injury to Joe Thuney does really hurt this Chiefs team Offensively. They also match up poorly with the Ravens on the other side of the ball and Lamar Jackson's win over the Houston Texans will have just eased the PlayOff pressure he may have felt before the game was played.

Lamar Jackson has looked after the ball when throwing in recent games, but turnovers are likely going to be very important and Baltimore cannot afford to fumble their place in the Super Bowl.

The Ravens have enjoyed their schedule with this being a fourth consecutive home game and with a Bye Week thrown in too- this has not been that uncommon in recent years heading into the Championship Games and the previous eight teams are 5-3 against the spread with only one outright loser.

It will be close and competitive throughout with both teams looking to impose themselves on the line of scrimmage. However, the injury suffered by Joe Thuney could be key to separating the Ravens and Chiefs and Baltimore can do enough to get the better of the dominant AFC team and earn passage into the Super Bowl behind a cover.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: 1991.

That is the last time the Detroit Lions have played in the NFC Championship Game, but Dan Campbell and the management deserve a lot of credit for the way they have turned this franchise around. It would have been easy to move on from a Head Coach who had overseen a 3-13 record in his first season and then begun the next year at 1-6.

A strong end to the 2022 season saw the Lions only just miss out on the PlayOffs having won eight of ten games, but that run also gave the players and the entire franchise belief that they were heading in the right direction. They won the NFC North for the first time (they last won a Division when playing in the NFC Central), and the Detroit Lions have dismissed the challenge of the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take their place in the Championship Game.

Confidence will not be an issue, but the Lions are not nearly as experienced as the San Francisco 49ers, who only just beat the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round last weekend. Winning is all that matters, and the 49ers will lean on the experience of now playing in their fourth NFC Championship Game in five seasons.

The 49ers have lost the last two NFC Championship Games, but both were on the road and they did reach the Super Bowl in 2019 after crushing the Green Bay Packers in the Championship Game at home.

Eight of the last ten NFC Championship Games have been won by the home team and the San Francisco 49ers are playing with an extra day of rest. This is perhaps contributing to the fact that the 49ers are strong favourites to win this game and move onto Las Vegas in a couple of weeks time, but it is unlikely to be plain-sailing.

When San Francisco have the ball, the line of scrimmage is going to be a huge part of how successful the 49ers are going to be. Kyle Shanahan wants his team to be able to run the ball effectively as it opens up the playbook, and he will be willing to give the Detroit Lions a different look up front and have Receivers carry the ball to make sure the team is always in front of the chains.

Any team that has Chrsitian McCaffrey in the backfield behind this Offensive Line will be very confident, but the Lions are not without hope. All season we have seen the Defensive Line step up and stop the run and they have held their last three opponents to an average of just 80 yards per game on the ground.

Teams have been able to pick up some big chunks at times, which will encourage the 49ers, but it is going to be a key part of the game as the strength of the 49ers Offense goes up against the strength of the Lions Defense.

If the Lions can continue to be as stout as they have been all season, they will certainly feel they can rattle Brock Purdy at Quarter Back. Injuries in the Lions Secondary does mean it is possible to throw the ball against them and the 49ers have a number of quality weapons that can be used, but keeping the 49ers in third and long will allow the Detroit pass rush to get into Purdy's face and perhaps produce an errant throw or two.

Brock Purdy should have been picked off at least once last week by the Green Bay Packers, but the weather looks more to the Quarter Back's liking on Sunday. This should mean he has a better day passing the ball, but that pass rush pressure could still be a major problem and it will give the Lions a chance to stall drives.

After playing home games indoors, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions will have been keen to see the weather report- he has played in California with the Los Angeles Rams, but it is Goff's time with the California Golden Bears that should mean he is happy enough in the outdoor conditions at Levi's Stadium.

Detroit will not want to put all of the pressure on their Quarter Back, but they will want to dominate on the ground with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs giving the Lions a dangerous duo behind Jared Goff. Both have been important to the Lions in their two PlayOff wins, while Gibbs is someone that can be a major threat whenever he gets a touch of the ball, although there is room for improvement.

They will certainly be encouraged by the performance of Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers and the Lions will be hoping to pick up from where their NFC North rivals left off in the Divisional Round. It is very important to establish the run to keep Jared Goff in positive field posiition and just give the Lions the kind of balance that will offer them every chance of earning the upset.

The Lions Offensive Line have opened up the running lanes, but they have also been very effective when it comes to protecting Jared Goff.

This feels really important to the outcome of the game- the Lions will have noted that there are one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exploited if they can keep Nick Bosa and Chase Young relatively quiet in the pass rush. Another important aspect of Jared Goff's play is that he has largely steered clear of turnovers and it was those mistakes from Jordan Love that cost the Green Bay Packers the opportunity of the upset.

Jared Goff will feel he has the weapons to win this game, even on the road. The numbers show that Goff has been more effective indoors, but the weather forecast is not a negative one for him and his time in California should mean that he cannot use playing outdoors as an excuse for underperforming.

His teams are 14-9 against the spread when set as an underdog of at least 5 points, while Goff and the Lions have really played well against the spread when facing the best teams in the NFL. They are also 12-7 against the spread as the road underdog since Dan Campbell took over as Head Coach and the Lions are being given plenty of points in this one.

The 49ers have been favoured in every game played this season, but they dropped to 3-6 against the spread as the home favourite in 2023 having failed to cover against the Green Bay Packers.

However, the biggest impact on this game has to be the status of Deebo Samuel- he has avoided a season ending injury having been knocked out of the Divisional Round game against the Packers, but he is questionable at best for Sunday.

While the 49ers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, Samuel looks to be the key to all they want to achieve Offensively. His ability to be a key part of the passing and the rushing side of the Offensive unit cannot be underestimated and it is telling that the 49ers are 10-3 against the spread in games that Deebo has started and finished, but amazingly 0-5 against the spread without him.

It may help the Lions slow the 49ers sufficiently enough to stay competitive throughout this one. Turnovers are likely going to be key for the team that reaches the Super Bowl, but Detroit certainly have a chance to win this one outright and so taking the points on offer looks to be the right play.

Of course there are a couple of practices to get through and Samuel is likely to be a game time decision, but the Lions can still be given an edge with this many points on their side.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Divisional Round: 3-1, + 1.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 41.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

2023 Season: 78-57-4, + 16.11 Units

Australian Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2024- Men's Final (Sunday 28th January)

It has been a good tournament for the fans to enjoy with plenty of drama throughout the fortnight.

Of course it has been much tougher to make predictions when there have been as many erratic results as we have seen in Melbourne in 2024.

While the Grand Slam tournaments will shut down until the end of May, there are plenty of big tournaments to be played between now and the French Open. I have set myself a target to achieve between now and then, but it will require some patience and better decision making, although also hoping that some of the margins lean back towards the selections having had so many Picks come close, but ultimately fail to cross the line over the last two weeks.

First off we have to round out this tournament and my thoughts about the Men's Final can be read below.

Jannik Sinner - 1.5 sets v Daniil Medvedev: It was a stunning Friday of tennis at the Australian Open and it will be a big surprise to many that Novak Djokovic is not playing for yet another title in Melbourne.

He had never lost a Semi Final at the Australian Open, but Novak Djokovic was crushed by Jannik Sinner, a player who so many have tipped up to win a major. Some will have believed that could happen in 2024, but Jannik Sinner deserves a lot of credit for making his way into his maiden Grand Slam Final.

The World Number 1 felt he had played his 'worst' Grand Slam match, but take nothing away from Sinner who served big and rallied from the disappointment of dropping the third set. The Italian became the first player to prevent Novak Djokovic from earning a single Break Point in a completed Grand Slam match and it is no surprise that Jannik Sinner is going into the Final as the favourite.

Inexperience is perhaps an issue, but Daniil Medvedev has invested so much of himself to make his third Australian Open Final as he looks to finally win a title here. A former US Open Champion, Daniil Medvedev will be hoping a day of rest is enough to have him ready to compete in the Final after needing over 4 hours, especially having invested so much physical and emotional energy to come from 2-0 down in sets to beat rival Alexander Zverev.

It is the second time in the Australian Open that Daniil Medvedev has come back from two sets down and the third time he has needed all five sets to be played before progressing. That has to have an impact, although Medvedev has shown a warrior spirit to battle through matches even when things are seemingly beyond him.

All of that will be needed if he is going to win his second Grand Slam title, but it is going to take a special effort.

Simply put, Daniil Medvedev has not found his best form at the Australian Open and it has been his mental strength that has really proven to be the difference. He served really well in the last three sets in the Semi Final, but making as slow a start will be punished by Jannik Sinner, who really has impressed in his run to the Final.

Only one set has been dropped and the serve has proven to be an immense weapon for the World Number 4, which is likely going to be the case again in the Final.

If this match was played at the US Open, you would have had to worry about the head to head- at that time, Daniil Medvedev had won all six previous matches against Jannik Sinner, including two wins in 2023. However, it is Jannik Sinner who has won three in a row against Medvedev since the end of the last Grand Slam of 2023 in Beijing, Vienna and Turin.

All of those have been in indoor hard court events, but it will give Sinner plenty of belief and this is a player who has massively improved in leaps and bounds.

In those three wins, Jannik Sinner has held 90% of service games played, which is significantly better than his 74% overall mark against Daniil Medvedev. And with a potentially very tired opponent in front of him, Jannik Sinner will feel he can get enough balls back in play and really exert a lot of pressure on the World Number 3.

Handling the nerves will be key, but Sinner looks more than capable of doing that and the accumulated fatigue on Daniil Medvedev may just catch up with him in this match.

MY PICK: Jannik Sinner - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 23-49, - 57.34 Units (144 Units Staked, - 39.82% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Jaime Munguia vs John Ryder (January 27th)

The last Boxing Picks were made a couple of weeks ago when Artur Beterbiev did a rock solid job of crushing Callum Smith.

There was plenty of whinging and insinuations from fighters after the fact, but those cannot be taken seriously. I mean the same people moaning won't say anything about Conor Benn failing multiple tests (Artur Beterbiev did not fail a test) nor will say mention 39 year old Natasha Jonas arguably producing her best career performances as she has aged.

With that in mind it just comes across being really bitter about a fighter who has beaten all 20 opponents inside the distance and especially as so many saw some signs of decline in his win over Anthony Yarde.

The reality is that Callum Smith is not as good as they thought.

We have also had news of the next big crossover fight in Saudi Arabia when Anthony Joshua faces Francis Ngannou, although the latter may have shown off enough Boxing ability in his loss to Tyson Fury to make that interesting. That is set for March 8th, but it is the chief support bout between Zhilei Zhang vs Joseph Parker after both beat a couple of big name Heavyweights in 2023.

The winner of that one will certainly lead the line for any vacant World Title fight that comes up after the Undisputed Fight in February, which is expected to lead to a fracturing of the four Belts soon after.

An introduction to a new Undisputed Belt that will be given to the winner feels like an open move from the Saudi Arabian authorities to take over the sport as they mentioned it can be defended even when all other Belts have had to be given away.

I have a strong feeling that it will be a Belt that will always have to be defended in Saudi Arabia and soon may be the one that most fans focus on when it comes to determining the best fighter in a weight class.

And once you have that, you have a grip of the sport.

It may be a personal opinion, but after seeing what happened in Golf, it is a genuine way the control of the sport can be shifted to Saudi Arabia. The suggestion is that the Dmitry Bivol vs Artur Beterbiev Undisputed Light Heavyweight bout will also be held in Saudi Arabia in June and if there is another new Belt given to that Winner, then you can see the plan formulating to control the biggest events and keep them within the country.

The positive for fans is that the big fights are being made, although the atmosphere at these events have been really below par.

Next step is to get more fans travelling to the events, but that still feels a little bit away and conditioning fans, journalists and broadcasters to accept the biggest fights will be in Saudi Arabia looks the first port of call. We are already someway down that path, and plenty more big events are lined up.

This weekend the big cards are in the United Kingdom and United States- the main focus is the bout that could provide Canelo Alvarez with his next challenger. There are just three weeks to go before the Undisputed Heavyweight Fight, but a couple of solid events to come before that and we should soon be given some official announcements for events to take place in the first half of the Boxing season.

Jaime Munguia vs John Ryder

There was plenty of controversy attached to John Ryder's loss to Callum Smith in 2019 and the Londoner will feel that he should have been a World Champion.

He followed up with four solid wins, including against Daniel Jacobs and Zach Parker, and that gave John Ryder an opportunity to take on Canelo Alvarez.

A Points Decision defeat will not have whet too many appetites for any rematch, although Ryder came out of the bout with credit having got up from a Fifth Round Knock Down. The Gorilla has been given another chance to impress when travelling to Phoenix, but John Ryder knows that his time at the top may be over if he is not able to win this bout.

The favourite is unbeaten Jaime Munguia, a fighter who has had forty-two wins on the record, but who has not been pushed as far forward in his career as many would have hoped. The wins are against opponents who will not really leap off the resume, but Munguia did earn a win over Sergey Derevyanchenko in his one outing in 2023 and that is a solid win over a veteran.

A Twelfth Round Knock Down proved to be the key for Jaime Munguia and this has the hallmarks of being a very entertaining fight. The Mexican throws a lot of leather, but John Ryder is not known for taking a backward step and it would be a massive surprise if this one does not catch fire.

You have to give Jaime Munguia the edge when it comes to output, even if the fighter still looks flawed deep into his career. The problem here is that John Ryder may not have the pop to really give Munguia a reason to stop coming forward and he took plenty of shots against Canelo Alvarez, which may have taken something away from the British fighter.

He will leave it all on the line and that should mean we get plenty of action, but Jaime Munguia should still be the fresher fighter.

John Ryder has shown he is a warrior with some top performances, but it did feel like Canelo was breaking him down.

Someone like Jaime Munguia might be much rawer than Canelo, but he is a bigger fighter and may punch that little bit harder. This is an opportunity for the Mexican to show he deserves a shot at his compatriot next, but the backing wil come if he can go a little better than Canelo.

It was a dominant win on the cards for Canelo Alvarez and Jaime Munguia is unlikely to replicate that with his style- however, Stopping Ryder will be making a big noise in the sport and he certainly has the volume and intensity to force a referee to jump in.

John Ryder himself won't want to go anywhere, but it felt Canelo Alvarez was a couple of punches away from closing the show. With a bigger man in front of him this time, Ryder may just be struggling to keep Munguia contained down the stretch.

Earlier in the night, DAZN will be broadcasting a card from Belfast which will feature some up and coming fighters.

Paddy Donovan has impressed early in his career and he will be facing a veteran from Argentina who has yet to be Stopped. However, Donovan has shown he carries power and he may be able to get the job done in the second half of the fight.

The same can be said for Cheavon Clarke against Tommy McCarthy, who has been beaten by Stoppage twice in his last four fights. Both have been in the second half of those contests against Chris Billam-Smith and Michal Cieslak, the latter just a couple of months ago, and Cheavon Clarke has shown he carries power late into a fight.

He is a big Welterweight and so it is perhaps not a surprise that Lewis Crocker has missed his mark and unable to win a vacant Title this weekend. Size should be a factor when he takes on Jose Felix, who upset Gary Cully in May 2023, but who is also moving up a couple of Divisions and who has not operated in this weight class before.

This looks to be another bout that could end in the second half of the contest as Crocker looks to at least make a statement even after missing the chance to win a Title.

MY PICKS: Jaime Munguia to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Paddy Donovan to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Cheavon Clarke to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.87 Coral (1 Unit)

Lewis Crocker to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 2-2, + 1.06 Units (7 Units Staked, + 15.14% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Women's Final (Saturday 27th January)

The men's Semi Finals brung the drama in different ways on Friday.

The first of those saw Jannik Sinner crush Novak Djokovic and it was a remarkable performance from the Italian. He did not face a single Break Point and was unfortunate to not win in straight sets, but it was a very impressive performance and Sinner may just be ready to win a Grand Slam title and fulfil all of the potential he has shown.

The second Semi Final was a classic- Alexander Zverev is going to be feeling absolutely sick that he failed to get the job done against Daniil Medvedev having led 2-0 in sets.

He had chances, but Zverev played the big points so poorly in the last three sets, while there isn't much he could have done about the mishit that ended up giving Medvedev Set Point in the Fourth Set rather than the German reaching Match Point. On a number of occasions Alexander Zverev was two points away from really being in control of the Semi Final, but it is the 5-4 lead in the Fourth Set Tie-Breaker with two serves to come, which will really hurt him.

Day 14 is reserved for the Women's Final and it features the defending Champion and a young player looking to become the latest surprising Grand Slam Champion.

My thoughts on that match can be read below.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: Ten years after Li Na won the Australian Open, another player from China will be looking to pick up the title in Melbourne. This time it is Qinwen Zheng, who has idolised Li Na, and who booked her place in the Final behind a strong Semi Final victory over Qualifier Dayana Yastremska.

A tough win was secured in the Third Round in a Super Tie-Breaker, but Qinwen Zheng has been relatively untroubled since then. Early nerves perhaps contributed to a slow start in the Semi Final, but Qinwen Zheng deserved her victory in the end as she now takes aim at her maiden Grand Slam title.

In her way is a mighty challenge.

Aryna Sabalenka has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open and the defending Champion is clearly enjoying her time in Melbourne. She admitted as much after earning a bit of revenge against Coco Gauff, the player who beat Sabalenka in the US Open Final, and the level of performance produce by the Belarusian certainly makes her a strong favourite to win another title here.

The serve has been a huge weapon for Aryna Sabalenka throughout this tournament and her controlled aggression on the return has put players under a lot of pressure. If she serves as well as she has been, Sabalenka will be very difficult to contain and the World Number 2 has shown she can be very hard to peg back once she picks up some momentum.

Two top 11 Ranked players have been beaten in the last two Rounds and that will only further the belief in the Sabalenka camp.

We know that Dayana Yastremska is going to be inside the top 30 at the end of this tournament, but Qinwen Zheng could not have handpicked a better run to the Final. None of the players she has beaten have been Ranked inside the top 50 of the World Rankings before the Australian Open began and there is no doubting that this is a huge step up in class against a Grand Slam Champion.

Qinwen Zheng will be confident in her first serve having won almost 79% of points behind that shot in this tournament, although again you have to note that the level of opponent has not really been that high. Over the last twelve months, that number slips to 68% when only considering Zheng's matches against top 10 Ranked players on the hard courts, while the World Number 15 is just 1-4 against top 5 Ranked opponents in that time.

She would not have covered with this number of games in any of those losses to Iga Swiatek (twice), Elena Rybakina or against Aryna Sabalenka, who crushed Qinwen Zheng for the loss of just five games at the US Open last September.

A problem for Zheng is that she has struggled on the return when facing top 10 Ranked players on the hard courts and now has to face arguably the best serve on the WTA Tour.

None of Aryna Sabalenka's opponents in Melbourne have been able to win more than 66% of first serve points against her and the likelihood is that the World Number 2 is going to be seeing a lot of second serves. You cannot take anything away from the run the underdog has had in the Australian Open, but she has only gotten 53% of first serves in play and that likely means having to deal with a lot of pressure from the Sabalenka aggression against the second serve.

On the other side of the court, Aryna Sabalenka gets plenty of first serves in play and she has been very strong at protecting the second serve. That serve proved to be key in New York City where Qinwen Zheng was not able to earn a single Break Point and this really feels like a match that the defending Champion can win.

Aryna Sabalenka showed some real mental strength to come through some rocky moments in the Semi Final and that should set her up very well.

Of course she will have to handle the occasion and the pressure, but nothing in Melbourne suggests Aryna Sabalenka is going to falter now and she can pull away for a very strong win and a second Grand Slam title.

MY PICK: Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 22-49, - 59.54 Units (142 Units Staked, - 41.93% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2024 (Friday 26th January)

Three of the top four Ranked players on the ATP Tour have managed to come through all of the upsets and drama at the Australian Open to take their place in the Semi Final.

It would be a huge disappointment if the two men's Semi Finals are not filled with excitement for the fans and we are likely to see these matches a number of times across the biggest events in 2024. Winning the opening Grand Slam is the obvious big motivation for all four players, but it also stands that the Champion will have laid down a serious marker to the main rivals on the Tour.

The winner of the first Semi Final is expected to go into the Sunday showcase match as the big favourite.

However, the second Semi Final is filled with headlines made from off-court issues between the players and it should make for a very good day at Melbourne Park.

Novak Djokovic - 1.5 sets v Jannik Sinner: There is a real hope that Jannik Sinner will be able to breakthrough and win a maiden Grand Slam title this season to join Carlos Alcaraz in bringing the future of tennis into the present. For fans of the sport, it would be good to begin to see a real changing of the guard, and Jannik Sinner can really prove himself if he can get the better of Novak Djokovic on Rod Laver Arena, a court the World Number 1 has dominated.

The win over Andrey Rublev was tougher than the final scoreboard will indicate and Jannik Sinner knows he will need to be better when playing in his first Australian Open Semi Final. He will have to lean on the previous experience of facing Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon Semi Final back in July, while the Italian did manage to beat the World Number 1 twice on the hard courts at the back end of the 2023 season.

They split a win apiece in the ATP World Tour Finals, although it was Novak Djokovic who won the match for the trophy, and Jannik Sinner was then able to beat Djokovic in the Davis Cup Finals. These wins will give him plenty of confidence to take into this Semi Final, although Novak Djokovic may point out that he was the stronger player in all three matches and just finished on the wrong end of the tight matgins.

Novak Djokovic was able to contain the threat Taylor Fritz brought onto the court in the Quarter Final and rallied after dropping the second set to move through in four sets. His numbers were strong in the match, while playing in the heat also made it tough for Djokovic having largely been contained to the Night Session throughout the tournament.

He should be back in that slot for this Semi Final, while Novak Djokovic will benefit from having an additional day of rest between the Quarter Final and this match. Of course Jannik Sinner benefits from the same, but you have to believe this is better for the older player and Djokovic can bring his best onto the court.

Losses in the ATP World Tour Finals and Davis Cup Final would have hurt, but Novak Djokovic has long spoken about peaking for the Grand Slam events as he looks to surpass Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slam wins in her home country. We have seen him peaking in this tournament with the much improved numbers and performances in the last three matches having done just enough to win the first two at the Australian Open.

At the same time, Jannik Sinner's numbers have declined in each of his last three matches from a high reached in his Second Round win. That suggests the level of competition has increased and the Italian is perhaps not being allowed to dominate as he has earlier in the event and now he faces the ultimate challenge at the Australian Open.

He has yet to drop a set, and the serve has been very strong for the World Number 4.

Imposing that serve on Novak Djokovic will be a key to the outcome of this match and Jannik Sinner will be encouraged by the fact he held 86% of his service games played against this opponent in their three hard court matches played at the end of the 2023 season. However, it was Djokovic's performances on the Break Points that stands out in those matches and Jannik Sinner showed he can play under the pressure of having to same those big points in his win over Andrey Rublev too.

He will need to do that again in this one and it is hard to ignore the fact that Novak Djokovic won 73% of the points played behind serve compared with Jannik Sinner's 63% mark in those hard court matches.

On Rod Laver Arena, Novak Djokovic may feel a little more confident in playing those big points better than he did at the end of 2023 and the feeling is that the World Number 1 is getting stronger as the tournament winds down. At the same time Jannik Sinner may just be weakening a little bit and the feeling is that Novak Djokovic will be able to come through in three or four sets.

Alexander Zverev v Daniil Medvedev: It will feel like a case of what might have been for Alexander Zverev- he was giving Rafael Nadal all he could handle in the French Open Semi Final and was a couple of solid tournament runs away from becoming World Number 1 for the first time when injury cruelly struck in June 2022.

That injury cost him the rest of the season and it has taken plenty of hard work over the last twelve months to have Zverev feeling like he is back at a level he belongs.

For two and a half sets, Alexander Zverev showed all of his very best tennis as he dominated Carlos Alcaraz and moved to within a game of the Australian Open Semi Final. He was not quite able to maintain the standards and ended up dropping the third set, but the German rallied in the fourth and moved into his second ever Australian Open Semi Final.

The first ended in a four set loss to Dominic Thiem, who would go on and beat Zverev later in the year in the US Open Final too, but it really does feel like Alexander Zverev is finding his best tennis right now. This tournament is laying a strong foundation for the rest of the 2024 season, but Alexander Zverev will not want it to end just yet.

Anyone who has watched 'Break Point' on Netflix will know there is little love lost between Alexander Zverev and Semi Final opponent Daniil Medvedev as they prepare to meet on Friday.

That rivalry made for good watching for the viewers, but it has not been much of one on the court over the last few years and that is something that Alexander Zverev will be keen to change.

He won the first four professional matches between the players, but Daniil Medvedev was Ranked at Number 50 or higher in those matches, while Zverev was a top 10 Ranked player for the majority of those and expected to win. Since then, it is Medvedev who has become a fixture in the top 10 of the World Rankings and he has won eleven of fourteen matches between the pair.

That includes winning five of six matches played between the two last year and so Daniil Medvedev has to believe he has the tennis to earn yet another Australian Open Final spot.

It is certainly a head to head that will give Daniil Medvedev plenty of reason to think he can win this Semi Final and it is perhaps the main reason the World Number 3 has been set as the favourite in the match.

On the raw numbers, Daniil Medvedev has had a difficult Australian Open tournament and there is no doubting that there has been a lingering affect of having finished in the early hours of the morning when winning his Second Round match against Emil Ruusuvuori. He showed plenty of fatigue in the five set Quarter Final win over Hubert Hurkacz, but there is no doubting the fight and tenacity that Daniil Medvedev will bring onto the court for as long as he is out there.

Ultimately it is about the recovery and how well he is able to do that- not only did Medvedev have to play for over four hours in the Quarter Final, but he played in the hottest part of the day and the energy was clearly being sapped from him. The fact he rallied from dropping the fourth set to win a decider just underlines the quality and the mental strength Daniil Medvedev has and he will need all of that in this Semi Final.

The problem Daniil Medvedev has had in the tournament is that he is only holding 82% of service games played- that is considerably down on his 86% mark set over the 2023 calendar year, while the return is then placed under considerable pressure. In the Quarter Final, Medvedev had to deal with a lot more Break Points than he created and it is unsustainable to continue to replenish energy being lost physically and emotionally.

He played the big points well enough to edge past Hubert Hurkacz and it was the same against Emil Ruusuvuori, but it will have accumulated some fatigue.

Alexander Zverev has had anything but a clean run himself though and so the fatigue problem may not be as great for Daniil Medvedev as it would be if he was playing Novak Djokovic or Jannik Sinner instead. And while he is not returning as well as his rival, the performance in the Quarter Final behind serve will have really encouraged Zverev and his supporters that he can turn the tables on the World Number 3.

And despite the head to head in 2023, it should be noted that the four hard court matches were closely contested with Daniil Medvedev edging the big points. Those were all across best of three set formats too and the feeling is that the Russian is perhaps running close to empty and Alexander Zverev will have the fitness edge if this goes long.

Reaching a second Grand Slam Final will add to the pressure on Zverev, but his performance in the Quarter Final compared with Daniil Medvedev's suggests it is the German getting stronger the Australian Open winds down.

This has the makings of being a really good Semi Final after the efforts both have put into the tournament, but Alexander Zverev's serve has been working well enough in Melbourne to believe he will be lining up in the Men's Final on Sunday.

Backing against Daniil Medvedev is not easy considering his hard court abilities and the motivation he will have in wanting to keep Alexander Zverev under the cosh, but you cannot ignore the obvious fatigue build up we have seen. As long as Zverev can contain his emotions against this rival, he may have enough to come through after another long match.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 22-47, - 55.54 Units (138 Units Staked, - 40.25% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2024 (Thursday 25th January)

There have been some remarkable results throughout the fortnight at the Australian Open, but plenty of really good tennis too.

On Day 11 we were treated to a couple of top class men's Quarter Final matches, while also seeing a women's Semi Final line up completed which would have had been predicted by very few people before the tournament began.

No one will doubt the run Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka have had and the winner of that Semi Final is expected to be a strong favourite in the Final.

But how many would have had Qinwen Zheng and Dayana Yastremska coming out of the top half as the other Finalist? At least Zheng reached the US Open Quarter Final and has long been talked about as having massive potential, but Dayana Yastremska's run has really come as a surprise.

She is a former World Number 21, but Yastremska was forced to come through the Qualifiers this year- she had not been past the First Round of a Grand Slam since returning from the ban she had been given after an adverse drugs test. It is a Semi Final that could be nervy for both players and may really come down to which of the two are serving better on the day, although the winner will be an underdog on Saturday in the Final.

Both women's Semi Finals are set to be played on Day 12 at the Australian Open as the tournament winds down and you can read my Picks below.

Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka over 21.5 games: It almost feels like the women's draw should have been re-Seeded considering the amount of upsets we have seen throughout the Australian Open. And so while the top half of the draw is going to give us a first time Grand Slam Finalist, the bottom half has put together a Semi Final between the two players who won their maiden major in 2023.

The Australian Open crown is being defended by Aryna Sabalenka, but Coco Gauff won the US Open by coming from behind to beat the World Number 2 in the Final.

It is perhaps a mental edge the American can take into this Semi Final having struggled in her Quarter Final win over Marta Kostyuk. Prior to that Coco Gauff had been in imperious form on the hard courts, but there were some nerves and the power of her opponent certainly gave Gauff plenty to think about.

Now she has to take on arguably the most powerful player on the WTA Tour and one who has been dominating all that have stood in front of her in Melbourne. There has been little drama for Aryna Sabalenka, but most will feel that there is a massive obstacle for her to overcome if she is going to win a second Grand Slam title at the Australian Open.

In a warm up event to the tournament, Aryna Sabalenka crushed all opponents before running into Elena Rybakina in the Final and winning just three games. There is no doubting the quality of her front-running, but Sabalenka has yet to show she can handle someone coming at her and Coco Gauff has a history of doing that in their head to head match ups.

Coco Gauff has the head to head advantage on the hard courts with a 3-2 lead over Aryna Sabalenka, but nothing has come easy and four of the previous five matches between these two on this surface have needed a deciding set.

The 'easiest' win came for Sabalenka in Indian Wells in March 2023, but the rest of the matches have been massively competitive and the numbers have backed that up.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Aryna Sabalenka has tended to have more Break Points than Coco Gauff, but the latter has tended to play those big moments a little more efficiently. That has given her the chance to have the lead in the head to head on the hard courts and it is going to be a huge part of this match.

Aryna Sabalenka's level in this tournament has been historically strong and she is certainly capable of blowing past Coco Gauff as she did in Indian Wells. However, the feeling is that Gauff will grow having come through a tough test in the Quarter Final and showed her Champions mentality, while we have yet to see Aryna Sabalenka need to overcome difficult moments.

There is likely to be a number of close games in the match and both players are Grand Slam Champions now- there will be some nerves knowing the winner is going to be a big favourite in the Women's Final on Saturday and that may mean some twists and turns in a match up that has produced them regularly in the past.

Three sets were needed in the US Open Final and this is another match between these two Slam Champions that could need a deciding set.

Dayana Yastremska + 3.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: The top four names on the WTA Tour have been in and around the business end of the Grand Slam tournaments over the last twelve months, but the women's draws continue to throw up new names making strong runs.

The 2024 Australian Open has proven to be no different and the top half of the draw has really seen a surprising Semi Final match up being set.

Both Dayana Yastremska and Qinwen Zheng were able to win their Quarter Final matches on Day 11 of the tournament and that has meant not having a day of rest to appreciate what they have done. Facing one another will certainly build some tension as both players will look at this Semi Final as a very winnable one, while nerves ahead of the biggest match of their careers is going to be understandable.

It is slightly problematic that Qinwen Zheng played in the second Quarter Final and that she had an hour extra on the court, but it was not such an intense match that she can use that as an excuse if Zheng is unable to make the Final. There has been plenty of positive talk around this player over the last eighteen months to believe Qinwen Zheng had the qualities to win a Grand Slam title, but it has perhaps come a little quicker than anticipated.

That won't matter and it does feel like Zheng is building momentum.

After three less than ideal performances, Qinwen Zheng has certainly picked up her level in her last two wins in the tournament, which will give her confidence. At the same time you cannot argue that the draw was anything but kind to the soon to be top 10 Ranked player and Zheng has not had to beat anyone Ranked higher than Number 54.

Coming into the tournament, Dayana Yastremska was struggling down at World Number 93 and had to come through the Qualifiers, but she will be back inside the top 30 at the end of the Australian Open. The Ukrainian is certainly playing much higher than the current Ranking number next to her name and Yastremska is likely taking inspiration from Emma Raducanu who won the US Open as a Qualifier in 2021.

That run truly came out of left field, but Dayana Yastremska is a former World Number 21 and is hitting the ball very big at the moment. The fact is all of her wins in the main draw at the Australian Open have been against top 50 Ranked opponents and so her numbers look pretty impressive with that in mind.

Both of these girls have served very well and that has allowed them to dictate the tempo of their matches.

Out of the two, Qinwen Zheng has been getting a bit more out of the first serve and is a big ace hitter, but she is also only getting 53% of her first serves in play. Allowing Dayana Yastremska to see a lot of second serves will be a problem considering the Ukrainian has been winning more points on the return compared with Zheng, while she has also had a bit more protection of the second serve.

Nerves are the big 'x factor' that really cannot be determined, but Qinwen Zheng did reach the US Open Quarter Final in September and that may help her.

However, Dayana Yastremska has played with a real freedom and having a bit more time to prepare for the match could be the key to keeping this one close and competitive. It has been a long tournament for the Qualifier and conditions will be different in the evening compared with the Quarter Final being played in the day, but Yastremska looks more tested and that may be the big advantage she has over Qinwen Zheng, who is facing a significantly tougher test than at any other time in Melbourne this week.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dayana Yastremska + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 21-46, - 55.20 Units (134 Units Staked, - 41.19% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 24th January)

While the men's draw looks solid, the top half of the women's draw looks incredibly open.

Two of the four Semi Final matches have been set and both look like being very strong matches.

On Wednesday we will complete the final four line up, but it feels like an incredible opportunity for the four WTA players facing off in their Quarter Final matches on Day 11.

Linda Noskova, Dayana Yastremska, Anna Kalinskaya and Qinwen Zheng make up the quartet and one of those players will be playing in their maiden Grand Slam Final. They will be facing a former Grand Slam Champion in that Final on Saturday, but it could be a huge boost to their careers if they can go on and win the Australian Open crown, although no one outside of their individual teams would have really expected this kind of run.

Picking winners in those Quarter Final matches looks incredibly tough- the feeling is that Kalinskaya could certainly cause an upset, but the Noskova-Yastremska match could be filled with nerves.

The men's matches should see the four players dealing with nerves much better having played big Grand Slam matches in this Round previously and those two are the focus on the day.

Hubert Hurkacz-Daniil Medvedev over 40.5 games: The women's draw has once again been decimated by upsets across the board, but seven of the eight men's Quarter Finalists are currently Ranked in the top 10 as those players continue to lead the way.

It should make for a strong end to a tournament that has featured so many upsets over the first ten days and every player left will feel they have a chance of winning the opening Grand Slam of the season.

Some will certainly be backed by outsiders more than others, but internally all of the players left standing will believe they have the tennis that is capable of winning a major.

Daniil Medvedev has not won the Australian Open, but he has twice been a Finalist here and he goes into this Quarter Final as the favourite. However, he will be well aware of the dangers that Hubert Hurkacz poses, especially as the latter leads the head to head 3-2 despite being the lower Ranked player each time they have met.

That record includes a five set win at Wimbledon in 2021 and Hubert Hurkacz was able to snap the two match losing run on a hard court against Daniil Medvedev when beating him at the Miami Masters in 2022. They did not play one another in 2023, but the match up will not have changed too much for Hubert Hurkacz and the underdog will certainly feel he has every chance of earning the upset to take his place in the final four.

The key will be the serve for the Pole who has held 92% of his service games played against Daniil Medvedev- at the same time, the World Number 3 has managed to hold 89% of his own service games when only considering the hard court matches between the two players.

There is no doubting that the serve has been an important factor in Hubert Hurkacz making it through to the Quarter Final and he has held 93% of his service games played in Melbourne in 2024. Hubert Hurkacz has been allowed to get on the front foot when it comes to the return with the serve working so well and his returning numbers have been very good in the tournament too.

Daniil Medvedev will be definitely tested in this match and his numbers on the hard courts have dipped in the last couple of seasons. Even in his run in this tournament, Medvedev has only been able to hold 82% of his service games played and he will have to be a lot more focused on that side of his tennis against an opponent serving as big as Hurkacz is right now.

You can make a case for the underdog, especially as Hubert Hurkacz has a win over Daniil Medvedev at a Grand Slam event, albeit on the grass of Wimbledon which is arguably the World Number 3's least favourite surface.

The expectation is that Medvedev will be much stronger on a hard court, even if the head to head is in favour of the opponent. The last two wins for Hubert Hurkacz have both been in straight sets, but this looks like a potential battle in the making and the first three matches all saw both men win at least one set.

Tie-Breakers are likely to be in play, and that should mean four sets will be enough for this match to surpass the total line set.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Alexander Zverev: It was Alexander Zverev who won the first two matches ever played against Carlos Alcaraz, but the latter was Ranked outside the top 40 in both of those back in 2021. Since cracking the top 10, Alcaraz has won three of five matches and that includes a crushing win at the US Open last September at the same stage of that Grand Slam.

Alexander Zverev earned some revenge by beating Carlos Alcaraz in a deciding set at the ATP World Tour Finals in Turin, but that was a match played on an indoor hard court. The conditions in Melbourne have been pretty quick, which would suit the German, but you cannot ignore the time he has already spent on the court.

Some may describe it as potentially being undercooked, but Carlos Alcaraz should be the fresher player in this Quarter Final having spent around nine hours on the court compared with the fourteen hours Alexander Zverev has had to negotiate. The fact that Zverev has played two five set matches already in the four played in Melbourne is also a negative factor going against the underdog set for the match.

The serve has been important for Alexander Zverev who has held 89% of his service games played in the tournament. This has made up for the relative struggles on the return with Zverev breaking in just 15% of return games played, which is a similar level shown to when he was playing in the United Cup earlier this month.

A poor returning number has to be a concern ahead of facing Carlos Alcaraz who has held 98% of his service games played at the Australian Open in 2024. He has been broken just once in the four matches played and that has allowed the Spaniard to just free himself up on the return, which has led to breaks in 33% of return games played.

In the two hard court matches played against one another in 2023, it was Carlos Alcaraz who had the slightly superior serving numbers in terms of percentage of points won. He also played the big Break Points a little better than Alexander Zverev, despite finishing 1-1 in the head to head, and you have to feel the fresher player will be able to come through in this important Quarter Final.

At his best Alexander Zverev can be very dangerous, but he may not have the energy to keep levels high throughout this Quarter Final and that should give Carlos Alcaraz the opportunity to pull away by the end.

MY PICKS: Hubert Hurkacz-Daniil Medvedev Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 20-45, - 54.86 Units (130 Units Staked, - 42.20% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2024 (Tuesday 23rd January)

We are down to the Quarter Finals at the first Grand Slam of the season and it looks a wide open women's draw, while the top players on the ATP Tour have largely made their presence felt.

However, nothing has come easy for any player at the Australian Open this year and perhaps more twists and turns are to come.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He admitted that he had to give himself a bit of a talking to after falling 2-1 behind in sets, and it clearly helped as Andrey Rublev won a match in the Fifth Set for a second time in the Australian Open. Having twenty-fours rest between matches is going to be a very important time for Andrey Rublev as he looks to finally crack through the Quarter Final Round at a Grand Slam for the first time.

Consistency has been very important for Andrey Rublev and the win over Alex De Minaur will give him plenty of confidence.

However, it should also be noted that Andrey Rublev is facing a much tougher opponent in the Quarter Final when he takes on Jannik Sinner. The Italian is arguably playing the best tennis out of the last eight players left in the men's draw, but this is a big year for Jannik Sinner as he really looks to announce himself as a big player on the Tour.

Most know the talent that Sinner has, but he has yet to really show that consistency at the Grand Slam level. There have been some good runs, but Jannik Sinner ended 2023 in superb form and his level at the Australian Open has been really high, which will in turn mean there will be plenty tipping him up to take home the title.

Jannik Sinner has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open and he has not really been pushed- he was perhaps not at his best in the Fourth Round, especially behind serve, but Sinner still had too much for Karen Khachanov and this is a match up that he has enjoyed in the past.

The head to head record backs that up with Jannik Sinner having won the four matches that have been completed against Andrey Rublev. The two exceptions were in matches that Sinner had to retire from, including at the French Open, but Jannik Sinner won both hard court matches played against Andrey Rublev in 2023.

The higher Ranked player has held 90% of service games played in those two matches, while Rublev has 'only' been able to hold in 72% of service games. The second match was more competitive, but Sinner was still the stronger player and he has broken in 43% of return games played in this Australian Open compared with Andrey Rublev's 22% mark.

The return of serve is likely going to be a key edge for Jannik Sinner, while he may also feel he has the physical edge.

Andrey Rublev had a much tougher Fourth Round match and looked to be cramping and breaking down physically at the end of that. Even the day of rest between matches may not be enough time to make a full recovery and the quality of his opponent makes things that much tougher for Rublev.

On paper this looks a big spread all the same, but Andrey Rublev is also going to be dealing with the fact he has never won a Grand Slam Quarter Final. In his nine previous Quarter Final defeats at the majors, Andrey Rublev would have seen his opponent cover this number six times.

The match up, the potential fitness edge and the level of his tennis in this tournament gives Jannik Sinner the advantage in this Quarter Final. He reached the US Open Semi Final just a few months ago so will know he can win a big match like this one and the Italian can find the tennis to come through and cover.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: The defending Australian Open Champion never really reached the consistent heights twelve months ago as she has in Melbourne this past week. It was still good enough to give Aryna Sabalenka a deserved maiden Grand Slam, but her current level will surely mean another Grand Slam trophy would be taken home to put in the trophy cabinet.

At the same time Aryna Sabalenka will know there are some considerable obstacles to overcome and the Quarter Final sees her pitched against another former Grand Slam Champion.

Barbora Krejcikova came through a Fourth Round match against teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva and she will feel good about coming from behind to win that match. This is the third time in four matches that Krejcikova has come from behind to win a match at the Australian Open so she may feel she is more battle hardened than someone like Aryna Sabalenka who has crushed all four opponents faced.

There is little doubt that Sabalenka is one of the best front runners in tennis and can be very hard to peg back once she gets into her rhythm. Barbora Krejcikova will know about that, but the Czech player did beat Aryna Sabalenka on a hard court in Dubai last year and also won a set against her in Indian Wells before being crushed in Miami and Stuttgart.

Aryna Sabalenka also beat Barbora Krejcikova comfortably at the US Open in 2021 and the World Number 2 has had the superior numbers in the head to head.

If Barbora Krejcikova can serve well, she can cause problems, but dealing with this Sabalenka serve on this relatively fast hard court is going to be a massive challenge.

Slow starts have been something of an issue for Krejcikova and making one of those here will give Aryna Sabalenka the momentum to produce another strong win at the Australian Open in 2024.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 18-44, - 56.18 Units (124 Units Staked, - 45.31% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2024 (Monday 22nd January)

The first half of Quarter Final matches have been set after Day 8 at the Australian Open and it looks like being a potentially strong end to the tournament.

With the way the women's draw has fallen apart, the potential Semi Final between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka looks like being a title decider, while also meaning someone with little pre-tournament expectations could make it through to the Final.

The men's draw is really gearing up for a strong end and a couple of good looking Quarter Final matches have been set.

Unlike the women's draw, there are still plenty of top 15 Ranked players still hoping to win the Australian Open and we should be treated to some very good tennis.

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Nuno Borges: For the first time in the history of the Australian Open, a player from Portugal will be playing in the second week of the event.

All credit should be given to Nuno Borges for beating a couple of Seeded players in his three wins in the main draw, although the numbers suggest his win over Grigor Dimitrov was much tougher than the scoreboard would indicate. It is still a strong win for Borges considering the form that Dimitrov has put together this month and it should mean the player goes into this Fourth Round match with real confidence.

This is another step up in class against an opponent who has reached the Australian Open Final twice before and won a Grand Slam title in New York City.

We have seen arguably Daniil Medvedev's best performance in the Third Round win over Felix Auger-Aliassime and he should be much better rested heading into the second week.

Daniil Medvedev will feel there is still room for improvement in his service numbers in Melbourne, but he has been returning really well and that should help him exert some pressure on the lower Ranked opponent. In the last Round Nuno Borges actually faced 12 Break Points and created just 7 Break Points of his own, so Daniil Medvedev will believe he can get enough balls back in play to at least be in a position to break this serve.

This has been a good, strong tournament for Nuno Borges, but we had not seen any of the kind of tennis he is producing ahead of the Australian Open in the warm up events that were played. Both his serving numbers and returning numbers have been vastly better than what we have seen from Borges before the tournament began and it becomes a fair question to wonder how long he can sustain his current level.

Someone like Daniil Medvedev should be able to produce enough quality to really push Nuno Borges and the World Number 3 is quietly looking to peak as this tournament wears on.

Of course this is a big spread for any match taking place in the second week of a Grand Slam, but Nuno Borges has overachieved to get here. It can be dangerous to make an assumption, but a player who had a 4-9 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months before the Australian Open got underway is perhaps going to struggle to sustain his current level of performance.

The numebrs have been pretty average when those matches have been played and Daniil Medvedev can find the breaks of serve to win and cover.

Arthur Cazaux-Hubert Hurkacz over 40.5 games: Winning a title on the Challenger Tour has become a regular occurrence for young Frenchman Arthur Cazaux and he picked up another title in the warm up to the Australian Open. Confidence has been built thanks to the performances on the hard courts over the last twelve months, even if those have been on the Challenger Tour rather than main ATP Tour, and it has helped in taking Cazaux through to the second week at the Australian Open.

Remarkably Arthur Cazaux has been able to keep his level at a very high mark even when playing in the Australian Open with all three wins coming against opponents Ranked inside the top 33.

That makes those numbers really stand out and Arthur Cazaux backed up his upset of Holger Rune by crushing another Seed, Tallon Griekspoor, in the Third Round. He lost just seven games in that victory and Arthur Cazaux has held 94% of his service games played in the tournament so far.

Serving well is going to be key when going up against Hubert Hurkacz, another top 10 Ranked player standing in front of Arthur Cazaux.

Hubert Hurkacz is going under the radar somewhat, but he has looked good in the tournament and beat a Frenchman in the Third Round. Ugo Humbert was supposed to test the World Number 9, but Hubert Hurkacz was the better player and he has also been serving at a very strong level in Melbourne.

Much like his opponent, Hubert Hurkacz has held 93% of service games played and this feels like a match that could go pretty long if Arthur Cazaux continues to perform as he has done. Where Nuno Borges has not had the numbers to back up his wins, the Frenchman has and he will give Hubert Hurkacz something to think about with Tie-Breakers likely to be key to the outcome of the Fourth Round match.

My question would be how Arthur Cazaux is going to react if he loses the first set, something that has not happened to him in the tournament. It is less pressing on Hubert Hurkacz, who came from a set down to win his Third Round match, but you have to believe the Cazaux level continues and that should mean a tight, competitive match that goes at least four sets.

This should be enough to see both players put the serving together to cover this total number of games in the Fourth Round.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Cameron Norrie: There was a slight lapse in concentration in the middle of the second set, but it was Alexander Zverev's best performance at the Australian Open when moving through in straight sets in the Third Round. He dominated a young opponent, but this is expected to be a much tougher test for Alexander Zverev as he looks to reach the Quarter Final here for the first time since 2021.

A return from a long-term injury was the reason Alexander Zverev was beaten in the Second Round twelve months ago, but he is in a much stronger place in January 2024.

However, he will have to have plenty of respect for Cameron Norrie who is coming off a Grand Slam win which the British player rated right up near the top of the list of his best ever at the majors. He battled back from tough moments of his own to beat Casper Ruud, a former French Open and US Open Finalist, and that will have given the lefty a huge amount of belief in his game.

There were one or two injury concerns for Cameron Norrie ahead of the Australian Open, but he looks to be pretty strong right now. The win over Casper Ruud is clearly the best one either player in this Fourth Round have been able to produce in the Australian Open, while both Cameron Norrie and Alexander Zverev needed to come through in five sets in the Second Round to avoid an upset.

The numbers have been very similar between the players through the first three Rounds, although a narrow advantage has to be given to Cameron Norrie on the return of serve.

Over the last twelve months you would have to note that the returning numbers are quite similar between the players, but Alexander Zverev has had a considerable edge when it comes to the serve. While that has not been evident in the tournament, the longer look at the numbers suggest it may not be sustainable.

Alexander Zverev has also won the last four competitive matches played against Cameron Norrie and he has won all eight sets played in those matches too. All have been on the hard courts, including beat Cameron Norrie in Vienna at the back end of the 2023 season and this should give the German a mental edge to take into this Fourth Round match.

The numbers have been quite staggering in this four match winning run for Alexander Zverev- he has held 97% of his service games played compared with Cameron Norrie's 79% mark and that gives Zverev a clear edge in the match.

Those previous matches are not that relevant when you think the last two have been over a two year period, but Alexander Zverev is also someone who tends to get stronger as the Grand Slam moves into the second week. We saw signs of that in the Third Round, while Cameron Norrie has been playing at a steadier level and perhaps needs to improve much more than his higher Ranked opponent.

It is a wide spread, but Alexander Zverev may get Cameron Norrie thinking about his previous experiences against this opponent and that could see the World Number 6 pull clear by the end of the contest.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Arthur Cazaux-Hubert Hurkacz Over 40.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jasmine Paolini @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 18-39, - 46.18 Units (114 Units Staked, - 40.51% Yield)